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NC: 49% Burr, 40% Marshall (Rasmussen 8/3)

Topics: North Carolina , poll

Rasmussen
8/3/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

North Carolina

2010 Senate
49% Burr (R), 40% Marshall (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Richard Burr: 55 / 37 (chart)
Elaine Marshall: 44 / 41

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 41 / 57 (chart)
Gov. Perdue: 44 / 53 (chart)

 

Comments
Dustin Blackburn:

Yeah Right !! Burr is going to lose this race by 2 points, and Ramussen is the ONLY pollster that has his Favorable's this high! Every other pollster, has Burr in the 30's!! Since Ramussen shows this race tightening, then it is actually with in the margin of error. Good Bye- Burr!!

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melvin:

Everytime another pollster comes out with a poll showing this race has tighten,Rasmussen comes out the next few days with a poll showing a different outcome.This guy is definitely on the Republican payroll.

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Dustin Blackburn:

Can someone please tell me, how Ramussen has the party break down, in this NC poll? Thanks !

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tjampel:

This is very interesting, when I look at the favorables for Burr. They're the same as they were in the last poll, which had Burr leading by 15. Yet Burr's numbers dropped by 4 and Marshall's are up 2 since that poll.

Also it's hard to reconcile SUSA's favorables on Burr (even) and PPP's (under water) with these boastfully high numbers. The Pollster avg is near parity right now for Burr.

I generally trust Ras (I adjust for house effect and am neutral on their LV screen for now), but I have a tough time believing these favorables for Burr.

Adjusting for house effect this appears to be a 7 point race at the high end (Ras, LV) and a 3-4 point race at the low end (PPP, adjusting for their slight bias)). So I think it's around 5-6 points, with Marshall still not so well known. That means she can still win this thing.

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Dustin Blackburn:

In addition, PPP/Civitas/Elon, which are all in NC, have Obama's approval #'s in the mid and upper 40's! Mr.Ramussen, how much is Richard Burr's campaign paying you??? haha

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Farleftandproud:

Yeah, Rasmussen can't fool me with this one.

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melvin:

The people in NC hates this guy,so you know this poll is so full of it.Rasmussen only polls Republicans,i dont think this guy even talk to Democrats.

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tjampel:

I doubt Ras needs to cut deals with Republican candidates. He does things his own way and is generally consistent.

The techniques I do question are those which push people who've never heard of candidates to get them to give a favorable/unfavorable opinion. Ras has been called out for this before, especially in WI, for example, where he showed massively high favorables for a candidate that had almost no name recognition there (at the time). Here other pollsters show that at least 30% of the electorate has no opinion about Burr (or don't know him); yet here 92% have an opinion.

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Dustin Blackburn:

Yes, b/c his NC polls are a crock of shit ! Burr has absolutely done nothing for my state, and we will bring him home come November.

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Stillow:

Keep it together lefties. Your starting to crack up. NC is out of reach for you ugys this year. I would however like it if you spend resources here and in KY....its always good for your opposoition when you spend money in races you cannot win.

Has anyone else noticed the lefties here hate Rass one day, but then love him when he has a poll they like? The left on this site is in such denial about the shape of their party and the reality of the elections this year. Barry is at -7 now in approval....races everywhere are favoring the GOP....and yet they still find motivation to get together for a liberal love fest and dream about races like NC and KY....and convince themselves they will win.

In a way you just gotta feel for the lefties, but then on the other hand, they do make the rest of smile...........

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bonncaruso:

Burr, 55% approval?

I am still laughing.

RAS has become a huge joke.

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Stillow:

Interesting to note that Rass had had Barry's approval higher than most other pollsters lately, including Gallup, CNN, USA Today, etc, etc.

Rass has been around 46/47 in Barry approval, while everyone else is down in the low 40's.....interesting coming from such a radically bias pollster.

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AlanSnipes:

I don't know which poll is right or wrong, but Rassmussen is different than other polls I have seen on this race lately.
Stillow: your snide reference to the President as "Barry" says what kind of person you are.
Yes he was called Barry in his youth but he is President now. Show some respect, even if you disagree with him.

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Dustin Blackburn:

Stillow-

I live in NC, and it is more Dem v/s Republican. I am all excited, b/c I know for a fact, this race is too close to call. Marshall will win this election. NC has a higher chance of electing a Dem v/s KY, by a long shot! Thanks !

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AlanSnipes:

This poll shows that Marshall has gained six points since Rasmussen last polled, so momentum is on her side.

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Fred:

haven't you guys seen the jobs report? And the fact that the only reason the unemployment rate is so low (9.5%).....is because people are giving up looking for work. Earnings reports are in. The market now will start looking at jobs reports again, and so far, it looks as though they are all bad. Private employment gains lower than expected again. Obama is in trouble, and there's no way dems will be excited to vote this November when their leader is doing nothing right.

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Field Marshal:

Yes stillow, show some respect to Obama. I mean, the lefties on here as well as all over the country showed such great respect to Bush for 8 years.... oh wait...

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tjampel:

Stillow: With the race moving from R+15 to R+9 for Ras and being in the R+3 category with a more accurate firm polling NC (PPP) your conclusion is simply wrong. Even FM stated that maybe Marshall should get support from the party.

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AlanSnipes:

Fred;
It's not what Obama isn't doing, it's the mess that the previous administration left us.
A report last week put out by professionals said that the stimulous saved 8 million jobs. This is an argument for greater stimulous.
Those who created this mess are quick to blame someone else.
The economy is in bad shape and will not recover overnight. We did not have a normal economic downturn, so why would we want to vote for people who put us in this mess in the first place.
This argument is for electing NO Republicans to office, since they do nothing but give tax cuts to the rich.

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Field Marshal:

It's not what Obama isn't doing, it's the mess that the previous administration left us.

LOL. Yeah... sure.

Robert Reich was on CNBC this morning stating that the stimulus was a failure and that they shouldn't do any more. But go ahead and drink the kool-aid.

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Gtfan4ever:

I just can't see Marshall winning. 2010 is a highly toxic year for Democrats and you guys need to come to terms with that now so come November 2nd the outcome won't be such a surprise to you.

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Gtfan4ever:

I just can't see Marshall winning. 2010 is a highly toxic year for Democrats and you guys need to come to terms with that now so come November 2nd the outcome won't be such a surprise to you.

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Field Marshal:

Fred,

The jobs report was terrible this morning. There is no way for the WH to spin it. The only good thing about it was that the largest job loss sector was the government even after stripping out he census workers.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Fred

"Obama is in trouble"

That's the right wingers problem. It seems like that's all they want is for Obama to be in trouble. It seems as thought their votes in Congress are just to ensure that he fails even if it is at the expense of the American people.

Case in point, the jobs bill.

Who ever heard of Republicans delaying tax breaks and incentives to small businesses?

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Stillow:

hahahah, I cannot call him Barry? I call Bush W like millions of others...its a nickname....

Seeing a leftist call for respect after what they called W for 8 years is a total hoot.

Barry is getting killed right now....people are onto his game...the party is over, ifnal drinks ar ebeing served.

AlanSnipes is a great talking points poster! Give him kudos for that!

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Stillow:

Shannon "Who ever heard of Republicans delaying tax breaks and incentives to small businesses"

That is because tax cuts pay for themselves...and incentives to small business pay for themselves via job creation. The GOP said they favor the jobs bill so long as it gets paid for by cutting somewhere else. Imagine that, after 8 years of Bush overspneidng and two years of Barry overpsneding, you leftists still don't get it...just spend spend spend.

After 8 years of W's overspneidng and 2 of Barry's waaaaay ovespneidng, you leftists still don't get it do you? Debt is hurting the overall economy....

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Farleftandproud:

Yes, this one is way way wrong. PPP and other credible polls had Burr's unfavorables way down. Rasmussen likes to take credit of their polls for the races that they were accurate on, but there is no way they polled enough indies and Dems to have his favorability that high. PPP and Quinnipiac are not radically liberal pollsters, and to see a nearly 15 point shift in favorability and a 5-6 point shift in the actual poll doesn't add up.

Burr is a very mediocre senator and has very little impact on any of his committees. Just like Senator Dole, his actual time spent in NC is minimal compared to other senators. Perhaps this August he'll have some catching up to do.

If he opens his mouth about changing the 14th ammendment and Obama was Born in Kenya, he's history.

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Chantal:

You guys do realize PPP has been excepting money from the Elaine Marshall campaign for senate. This no doubt explains the somewhat faulty numbers.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Stillow

Have you been keeping up with the news?

Democrats just attempted to provide free health care and compensation payments to 9/11 rescue and recovery workers who fell ill after working in the World Trade Center but every single Republican voted against it because it would pay for the bill by raising taxes.

That's just sick . . . the heroes of 9/11 got shafted by the GOP.

Republicans are concerned about the deficit. They're more concerned about the hispanics that are showing up at the polls to vote. They're more concerned about Barack "The Magic Negro."

One Republican Congressman argued we can provide benefits to the 9/11 workers because, if their were any illegal immigrants that worked in the ashes to recover victims, they, the illegals, might benefit.

Sad.

I'll say it again, "Who ever heard of Republicans delaying tax breaks and incentives to small businesses?," especially when considering that they want to extend the Bush tax cuts which are the biggest new drain on federal revenues in the last 20 years.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Sorry, that should have read:

Republicans AREN'T concerned about the deficit. They're more concerned about the hispanics that are showing up at the polls to vote. They're more concerned about Barack "The Magic Negro."

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Sorry about that. I should also have read:

One Republican Congressman argued we CAN'T provide benefits to the 9/11 workers because, if their were any illegal immigrants that worked in the ashes to recover victims, they, the illegals, might benefit.

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Stillow:

shannon - newsflash, Healthcare is not FREE. Its paid for by working class people. No one has any damn money shannon. And you want to tax tax tax, spend spend spend. Everyone is broke. Jobs are still being lost....we're in huge debt....obama is runjing 1.4 trillion dollar deficits right now. You have to PAY FOR THE DAMN SPENDING.

Did you not learn anything the past 10 years?

You cannot keep spending what you don't have, it doesn't work that way....that is part of the reason we are stucki n this recession and headed for a double dip....debt is dragging us down.

You libs amaze me when you say, free healthcare for all....unebelivable. I think you people actually think tis free and the money comes fro mthe money fairy. People are strapped, people are scraping by and you just want to tax and tax, then tax some more...and right when people are about to have their back broken, you want to tax them again.

By the way, many Dems now are saying they want to extend the Bush tax cuts....because many of them know the kickstart to a double dip will be tax increases....we should be cutting taxes right now to get "real" money int othe system and not borrowed money. We need incentives to small business so they can hire people! We don't need to hand out more freebies and burden already strapped people with higher and higher taxes.

You ugys never learn.

By the way, your "barack the magic negro" slur towards Limbaugh is funny.....being a liberal I am sure you had no idea that that phrase was actually first used by a black liberal comumnist....and rush uses it mocking that guy for saying it.

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Stillow:

shannon - Oh and your slur about hispanics...you might want to know the polling data this year shows a huge and very strong surge of hsipanic support for the GOP. CNN shoed 42 percent of all hsiapncis now support the GOP this year. And the trend line is moving to the GOP, not away. Gallup shows the same trend CNN does, a decline in hsipanic support for Barry and Dems.


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Mike E:

BamBam is down 16% in a state he won in 08. Dammmmm. The SS Barry is sinking fast. Man the lifeboats! Women and children first!

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Fred:

@shannon

There's nothing bad about tax cuts for small businesses. That's a good thing. Since when do you need an expensive bill to say "we'll give tax cuts to small business." Obama could sign a law giving tax cuts without it costing anything. When the bush tax cuts expire, would we have to create a multi-billion dollar bill to extend them? No.

Shannon, you need to stop just listening to dems talk about what their bills will do, and start looking at the cost and what is actually in them. It doesn't cost billions of dollars to offer tax breaks. If anything, the government should be stating what waste they will cut in order to not lose money from giving tax cuts.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Stillow

Let me write it again so that you can read it once more and point out how I slurred hispanics:

Republicans AREN'T concerned about the deficit. They're more concerned about the hispanics that are showing up at the polls to vote. They're more concerned about Barack "The Magic Negro."

The poll you're referring to was not about what party do you support. It was a very generic poll. It didn't ask about policy at all.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/07/30/rel10i.pdf

You can believe what you want to about how hispanics are going to react at the polls.

It's about actions. You can't change the fact that Republicans voted against a bill for 9/11 heroes because it might benefit illegal immigrants (all 2 of them - j/k) that worked to save the lives of American citizens. So, now, they've held up BILLIONS in aid, because they're afraid that illegal immigrants would benefit.

That's what they argued on the floor of the House. That's disgusting.

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lat:

Stillow,

I cannot wait for 2012 when "Barry" is re-elected in a landslide. Will you go off and cry when that happens?

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Fred

A tax cut widens the deficit. You could go into the right wingers theory of trickle down economics but everyone is a little tired of that. Not a whole lot trickled down from Wall Street and corporate America as they sought to offshore work.

Here is an important side note. The so-called tax that was proposed to pay for the benefits of 9/11 heroes was actually a measure to plug a loop hole that allowed companies with P.O. boxes offshore to keep from paying taxes on earnings made in the US.

THAT'S SICK.

When Stillow says that no one has money to pay for a tax increase. That "no one" doesn't apply to you or Stillow, unless you have an interest in a company that is based offshore.

"you need to stop just listening to dems talk about what their bills will do, and start looking at the cost and what is actually in them."

I'd suggest that you do the same.

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Stillow:

shannon - see the link

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/07/23/rel10d.pdf

You really need to know what polling data says before commenting on a polling site. question 5 and 6 asks which aprty do you support. All hsipanics, 42 percent for the GOP. Only 54 for Dem....waaaaaaaaaay below the 68 they got in 2008.

I'm nto sure how you can say the poll doesn't mention party when it flat out asks you which party you are going to support and breaks it down by ethinc group......

Again, try to be informed beofre you actually start posting. it makes you look, well....uninfomred.

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Stillow:

lat - Well luckily your election predictions are not to good now are they?

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nick283:

Little early to be predicting whether or not obama gets re-elected isnt it. Lot can happen between now and then. This time in 2006 everyone was predicting the election in 08 would pit hillary clinton against either romney or rudy.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Stillow,

"Well luckily your election predictions are not to good now are they?"

Obama won in 2008. Didn't he.


The question was "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in
your Congressional district?"

It doesn't say anything about policy or even which party do you support when it identifies respondents by race. It merely asks who locally are you going to vote for. There's no way to get accurate reading on a whole population by asking them about who they're going to vote for locally. If you asked hispanics in New York, 100% would identify the democratic candidate. Cubans in Miami would all probably say that they would vote for the Republican candidate. Again, the question itself doesn't have anything to do with policy.

It may seem like a small nuance but it makes a load of difference.

You can interpret the results however you want. I know exactly how it is going to play out.

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StatyPolly:

Shannon,Dallas,Texas,

You have no clue about what you talking with that 911 heroes bill. I do.

How exactly did GOP block the bill if the Dems have a 78 seat majority?

Here is a piece of advice: Learn something about that which you're about to spew. Lest you make a fool of yourself.

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Stillow:

shannon - LOL. So when a question asks you which party do you support, it does not mean you support the party your saying?

Shannon, you got caught, don't dig a hole deeper than you already have by trying to play cover games now. The poll CLEARLY shows 42 percent of ALL hispanic adults now say they are supporting a GOP candidate. 39 percent of registered hispanics. The data speaks for itself. Don't play this well they don't really mean it crap.

Numbers do not lie. The Gallup trend line shows a pretty equal drop off in hsipanic approval of Barry too.

Do you know how dumb it looks when you say asking what party you support in the upcoming elections doesn't really show which party your supporting?

Geeeez.

the comment to lat was about his predictions in NJ and MA....he knows what I meant. Again, try not to comment on things you clearly do not understand, like the poll I sent you.

If you wish to lcaim the data is fraudelant in some way or CNN and Gallup are biased in someway, I will listen to any evidence you might have. Otherwise we need to accept the numbers and the numbers show a clear trend in support away from Dems and to the GOP.

Numbers do not lie. And desptie your comment about asking which party you support not meaning you support that party.........blah, enough said.

I don't want to embarrass you further on this point. you would be wise to move to another thread now. Stop digging.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@StatyPolly

"How exactly did GOP block the bill if the Dems have a 78 seat majority?"

I said that they all voted against it and that they delayed billions in aid because they fear illegals might benefit.

Don't take my word for it. Watch CSPAN.


@Stillow

You've finally gotten it correct:

"The poll CLEARLY shows 42 percent of ALL hispanic adults now say they are supporting A GOP CANDIDATE."

It doesn't say that they support the GOP as a party or the party's policy which a majority of American think will result in the discrimination of Hispanic Americans.

You really should be as disgusted as I am that Republicans are protecting companies based offshore from paying taxes so that they don't have to pay a benefit to ordinary people who acted out of the kindness of the heart to help American citizens.

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Stillow:

shannon - ok shannon. You go with that. saying you support a party doesn't mean you really support that party. So I guess the 44 percent who support Barry don't really support him either? Or the 57 percent of whties who support the GOp don't really support them....or the 82 percent of blacks who support Dems don't really support Dems.

I think I will stick with the common sense approach here and not the shannon approach. If it makes you feel all warm and fuzzy inside to ignore the numbers an claim supporting a party doesn't mean you really support a party, then I'll let you have that.

I hope you realize most of the readers are laughing at you for this lunacy you are writing.

The data means nothing....now hear this shannon from TX says when you say you support a party, you don't really support them....the only flaw in her logic is of course, that goes for everything I guess. So the 71 percent of MO voters who said no to obamacare, don't really oppose it.

Please shannon, stop. Its one thing to be caught being wrong, we all are at times, but to dig the hole deeper and deeper is just sad. Move to another thread now. When data shows 42 percent of hispanics supporting GOP candidates, that means 45 percent of hsiapic voters are supporting the GOP right now...if they did not support the GOP, then they would not be voting for GOP candidates, got it?

liberals................

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Stillow

Half of the blacks in Missippi may vote for a Republican candidate in their local district. It doesn't mean that they will support the GOP or it's policies outside of voting for the one particular candidate they favor.

It's apparently over your head. So, we'll move on.

Doesn't it just make you sick that hat Republicans are protecting companies based offshore from paying taxes and not supporting those individuals that risked their lives at ground zero to help our fellow American citizens?

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lat:

Stillow,

I have said from the day Obama was elected that the dems were going to take a hit in 2010. There are other folks on this board that are in denial about, but I am not one of them. Fortunately thanks to your great party nominating off the wall lunatics like Sharron Angle the Dems have a better shot at keeping some Senate seats that should have been out of reach, but this trajectory will not last the economy will improve cyclically and by the time 2012 comes around the unemployment #'s will be far better. Get ready for an LBJ type landslide in 2012.

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Stillow:

shannon - sorry, I have to much love for women (I assume you ar eon), therefore I cannot embarrass you further. Dig away I guess.

lat - You've seen Barry's numbers right? he won a lot of states by less than 5 points, big states to like FL, NC, etc....his approval is in the tank in those states. He's an extrmeley polarising president, maybe more so than W. If does eek out a win he will do it with less EV's tan before.

And you might have missed it, but unemployment continues to be bad....jobs still being lost. with taxes going up in a few months it will make things woerse....there are some Dems now trying to extend the tax cuts, but we'll see if they have the power to make pelosi and reid go along with it. Barry own running as a moderate, he is governing like a liberal though...and the country just doesn't like that. carter was the last liberal and we know how that turned out. clinton was a lib til 94 when he suddenly bolted o the right and became a fairly center, center gith president after 94.

its all talk right now from bto hof us, but Barry is in big trouble. You know more and more eocnomists are now predicting a double dip recession driven by debt and over spending. todays jobs numbers were lousy and June was revised downward, big time.

Reagan and W faught and defeated the recessions they inherited with tax cuts, freeing up capital. Barry is doignt he oppositte, so the oppositte affect cna be expected.

But like i said, its all yapping from us right now...we need to see what happens in 2010 before predicting 2012 with any real accuracy.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Stillow

"sorry, I have to much love for women (I assume you ar eon), therefore I cannot embarrass you further."

I'm male. So, feel free to attempt to embarrass me.

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Stillow:

Bummer...not attmpt needed, the mission is as they say, accomplished. I am going to try your approach though with my bills. I'm going to tell the power company that even thoug hthey say I owe them money, they don't really mean it. I'll let you know if the shannon method works or not.

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AlanSnipes:

@stillow;
W. Bush did not inherit a recession. A small recession started in March . Since I can read a calendar and you can't, he had already been President and the markets were looking at the future and reacted accordingly.
President Clinton passed a five year spending and revenue raising budget in 1993 with NO Republican votes and the economy created 22 million jobs.
Reagan, after initially cutting taxes, then raised them because the deficit forecasts were over the moon. If Bush's tax cuts did wonders for the economy, why wre we where we are now?

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Stillow

The Shannon method of analysis only works when you understand the data.

Here's just some more numbers to help you evaluate the meaningfulness of the poll you're pointing to. I don't want to disregard what it's saying. Any truthful analysis should at least consider whether or not a specific question is meaningful to predict long term trends.

In the poll:

35% of blacks said that the Tea Party was mainstream.

Analysis: This stat is worthless. Blacks aren't going to support the Tea Party in significant numbers.

43% of all hispanics said that the Republican party was too extreme.

That's significant. Again, the poll didn't break down the specific policy questions by race but it's clear that Republicans will have to determine which policies are too extreme in order to win the broad support of the hispanic community.

The poll shows a 7% swing in a month in terms of the party affiliation of the candidate the respondent supports.

Analysis: There's a good chance that this is a blip and should be considered an outlier. We'll know more next month.

In local races, it doesn't appear to be much of a factor. Harry Reid is doing well in Nevada. Democrats are doing well in California. Arizona and NY are following the status quo in selecting a Republican in AZ and a Democrat in NY. The only place I see this as being a factor is in CO. It could have had a negative affect in places like TX, LA, and FL but incumbent Republicans are wildly popular in these areas and are likely to win regardless.

This is not a poll to point to for long term trend analysis except that it does say that 43% of all hispanics and 57% of all blacks say that the Republican party is too extreme.

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AlanSnipes:

By the way, Stillow, 31% of Hispanics voted Republican in 2008.
I also know that in 1996 Bill Clinton receivec 71% of the Hispanic vote.
Given your "tolerance" you and others on the right have for Hispanics, you won't get near 42%

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Stillow

BTW, doesn't it make you sick that the Republicans are protecting companies based offshore from paying taxes and not supporting those individuals that risked their lives at ground zero to help our fellow American citizens?

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Stillow:

alan - You are a master at posting talking points. A recession did start in March 2001, ya I am sure it was due to Bush's policies, all 50 days of them.The recession was the result of the tech bubble popping under Clinton. the reaso nthe recession was so mild was because Bush cu taxes to provide stimulation and it worked. then 9/11 hit and the tax cuts again helped needed capital remain in the system...and I beleiv ehe had 52 months of cosnecuti8ve job growth after that.

Reagan cut taxes to stimulate the economy too....and it worked. JFK cut taxes too....tax cuts are you how you stimulate the conomy. G'ment spending is how you make it drag. Much like FDR whoincreased g'ment spending, he made the recession drag on and on and on. Not wil WW2 was it ended.

I know all about Clinton, I voted for him in 96 as I said, he became a center right president after 94...who spoke often about thevirtures of small g'ment...it was he who decalred "the era of big g'ment is over".

Yep, Baryr got 68 percent of hsipanics in 2008...his approval now among hispanics I belive is down to 54 percent. Desptie what crazy lefties like shannon tell you, the numbers don't like and GOP is getting 42 percent hsiapic support right now. That may increase or decrease in time, no one knows, but at present the trend lines show support from hispanics moving to the GOP, not away from them.

Keep guttersniping.....numbers don't lie....you lefties are in a world of hurt right now.

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Stillow:

shannon - Last comment to you on this because honestly I cannot take the pure inability from you to understand data.

There's no spin, no trickery, no games. When a question asks you if the election were held today, which party would you vote for. And when 42 percent of all hsipanics say republican, that means at present42 percent of all hsiapnics are supporting republicans. You cannot spin it, or change the numbers to fit your own twisted reality. it is what it is. Only 54 percne tof hsianics are supporting Dems, down from around 68 percent in 2008. That is a clear trend.

all the spin i nthe world doesn't alter reality. You have emabrrassed yourself....your a typical left wing partisan who ignores numbers he does not like. Both the CNN and Gallup data show the same thing...a movement by hispanics away from Barry and Dems to the GOP....you can spin all day long to make yourself feel better.

It is what it is.Enjoy feeling warm and fuzzy inside....on election day in afew months maybe I will be nice and toss you a kleenex when the GOp slaughteres Dem and does it with pretty good numbers from hispanics.

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GoTo123:

Well Marshall can still win this one, but the outlook is getting worse with each passing day. I'd say that right now she's behind by 5-6%. Personally I feel that the Democrats have a better chance of winning the Kentucky Senate seat instead. Paul would be an easier candidate to attack in my opinion. And yeah, politics is all about knowing how to attack your opponent effectively.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

This is the last time I'll respond to you on this issue as well.

The poll didn't ask:

"When a question asks you if the election were held today, which party would you vote for."

It asked:

"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district?"

You keep trying to twist the question. Get it straight.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/07/23/rel10d.pdf

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tjampel:

StatyPolly:

"How exactly did GOP block the bill if the Dems have a 78 seat majority?"

The bill required a 2/3 vote because of how it was brought up for a vote. I think it has something to do with fast-tracking it so a vote could be held prior to recess.

The bill failed to get that 2/3 vote. I will be brought up again in Sept, no doubt and should pass.


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TeaPartyRules:

Okay, here's the bottom line on NC. I live in Charlotte and have watched countless TV adds against Burr. However all of the adds show Burr covered in oil on a beach and blamed him for the BP oil leak. No one in their right mind could possible blame Burr for the oil leak. This makes the Marshall camp look like they have nothing on Burr at all. I guess NOTHING, was the message. Apparently that's what Marshall got from it all, nothing.

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StatyPolly:

TJ,

Repubs tried to introduce amendments to the 911 heroes bill, in order to fund it with some sort of paygo, like using some of the still unspent stimulus money, as opposed to simply borrowing and adding addition several billion to the deficit, as the Dems wanted to do. That was when Dems decided to fast track it, FULLY KNOWING, according to Repubs that they did not have 2/3 votes. Repubs claim that Dems did this for the SOLE PURPOSE of gaining the talking point that Repubs are against 911 heroes.

Obviously a winning strategy by the Dems, if this thread is any indication. (and I am not referring to you, TJ)

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John:

@Shannon and Stillow

I wouldn't really get hung up too much on exact numbers from a sample of 300. In fact CNN in this small subsample seem to be a bit of the outlier. Of other polls which have a racial breakdown of the generic ballot which I could find, Gallup has it at 60D-32R (April - June, full sample about even), PPP at 58D-21R (July, fs even), YouGov 62D-18R (July, fs +3D) and Quinnipaic 55D - 27R(July, fs +5R). Which would probably indicate about a 4-5% drop in hispanic support for the democrats from 06/08. Which seems about in line with the whole population.

With regards to NC poll, Burr's favourable numbers do seem slightly weird, I wonder if rasmussen is underestimating the number of conservative democrats in the state. (Of which a significant number will vote for Burr but are unlikely to give him as high a favourable number.) Anyone got the rasmussen cross-tabs by any chance?

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tjampel:

Chantal:

You guys do realize PPP has been excepting money from the Elaine Marshall campaign for senate. This no doubt explains the somewhat faulty numbers.

How do you know PPP's numbers are faulty. You're a psychic?

Also please show me the link proving that PPP is working for the Marshall campaign. I looked and can't find it. In fact I found a National Review article about PPP in which it states that PPP"s founder contributed $2300 to Cal Cunningham, who was Marshall's opponent in the Primary.

It would also be kind of strange since the Marshall campaign just released an internal done by a different firm. Why hire PPP to do polling and then have a different firm do it?

It wouldn't surprise me that PPP may have worked before with local candidates and officials including Marshall due to their accuracy in the state. But I can't believe that wouldn't have been claimed in the National Review article, which it wasn't.

I trust PPP because they've had the best results in NC in past elections. If you claim Ras has a better record in NC prove it with some cold hard facts. I am only talking about NC, as PPP is based there. They are not the best firm in all states. They are the best in NC.

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tjampel:

StatyPolly:
OK...we read the same blurb and you explained it nicely. Where does that leave us?

This is a bill that Republican Rep King of NY tried to get through the House. It should have had broad bi-partisan support. The vote was 255 to 159. The split was mainly along party lines. The requirement for a bill of this sort being fully funded is laughable and disgusting, considering the bills Republicans passed and didn't bother to set aside one dime, such as Medicare Part D; that cost 350 Billion.

This was heroism displayed in the face of war, and to deny that or to deny that this was an emergency and that treatment necessary is the result of war/emergency is to make a mockery about what war or emergencies are.

War funding and emergency funding doesn't have to be paid for; nor should this bill. These men were in a war that's still going on, a foreign attack on our soil. We sent emergency aid to Haiti without set asides. I don't think Haitians deserve money more than these people. We didn't fund the Iraq war. We didn't fund the invasion of Afghanistan. We spent a trillion in Iraq and now can't spend a tiny fraction of that for these heroes.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Which would probably indicate about a 4-5% drop in hispanic support for the democrats from 06/08. Which seems about in line with the whole population."

Thank you, I was going to say something similar. Even among blacks, Obama has fallen from the 95% he got in 2008 to 80-85% now. Among whites, he's fallen from 43% to around 36-38%. All of those are commensurate with the general decline in his/dem approval.

Our media culture spends too much time overanalyzing elections and trying to determine what was the magic group that got X candidate elected. 2008 was nothing magical. All Obama did was beef up pretty much every category that John Kerry did well in. McCain basically got what George W. Bush got in 2004, although he didn't get the kind increase he needed to replicate Bush's 2004 win, which was unsurprising given Bush's unpopularity in 2008. Very few minds were really changed. The racial gap has been in place at the same level since 1988 and young voters, or "first-time" voters have favored democrats since 1992. Their relative stregnth in the electorate has changed, not really their preferences.

The bottom line that I don't think Stillow gets is that the hispanic vote does not operate in a vacuum.

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