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NC and IN Sensitivity Update

Topics: 2008 , Barack Obama , Hillary Clinton

1NCSensitivity505.png

As we close in on tomorrow's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, the "standard" and "sensitive" trend estimates have largely converged.

In North Carolina the standard estimator puts Obama at 50.1% and Clinton at 41.5%. The sensitive estimator has it Obama 49.5% and Clinton 42.2%. Or, a margin in the standard trend of +8.6 for Obama vs +7.3 in the sensitive estimate.

2INSensitivity505.png

In Indiana, the standard estimator puts Clinton up 49.5% to 43.3% for Obama. Switching to the sensitive estimator makes it Clinton 51.2% to Obama's 43.5%. Or a Clinton advantage of 6.2% for the standard estimator versus 7.7% for the sensitive one.

Either way the polls are seeing a split decision tomorrow. Anything else will be a very interesting surprise.

Cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.

 

Comments
Joseph E:

Here are my predictions.

North Carolina: although I am tempted to downplay Obama's chances, lest I raise expectations, I think the polls are underestimating his support. Black voters are likely to turn out stronger than many of the pollsters are expecting, and many of the undecided voters are leaning to Obama this time. I expect he will pick up at least two or three percent from the latest (sensitive) average, for a 9 or 10 point win. If the media uses the same strange logic as in Penn, that should be reported as a "double-digit" win. However, I also think he has a chance to do significantly better than expectations, and would not be shocked by a 15 point win (or a 7% win, for that matter)

Indiana: looks like Penn or Ohio, but a little weaker in the demographics for Hillary. I think she won't get as big of a last-minute bump this time, but simple allocation of the undecideds should get her just to 9%. A range of 5% to 12% seems certain; it would be a big victory for Obama to hold her to less.

In the end, the race will go on much as usual, but it looks like time is running out for Clinton, and her superdelegate lead is down to about 17 already, according to demconwatch. She needs a game-changer, and soon.

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Joseph E:

MSNBC confirms Obama picked up 4 today, and has a 2 to 1 advantage since Pennsylvania (apparently not such a big victory for Clinton, after all):

SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 273-258
PLEDGED: Obama 1,492-1,338
OVERALL: Obama 1,750-1,611

- There are 264 undeclared superdelegates.
- Since the Pennsylvania primary: It's Obama +21, Clinton +11.
- Since Super Tuesday, Feb. 5: It's Obama +88, Clinton +13.
- Since Junior Super Tuesday, March 4: It's Obama +45, Clinton +20.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/05/982767.aspx

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