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DailyKos: NC, MS (10/28-30)

Topics: PHome

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
10/28-30/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

North Carolina
Obama 47, McCain 45
Sen: Hagan (D) 50, Dole (R-i) 45
Gov: Perdue (D) 49, McCrory (R) 44

Mississippi
McCain 53, Obama 40
Sen: Wicker (R-i) 51, Musgrove (D) 44

 

Comments
kerrchdavis:

I like that NC number!

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Adam:

yawn.

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Thatcher:

:( Musgrove

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PJ_FFM:

interesting Senate numbers; are there trends to be seen?

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RaleighNC:

Nice try again, DKos. Hagan is not 5 points ahead of Dole. Again, nice try.

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NW Patrick:

According to this NC POLL "Not much change across the board. But check it out, we have early voting numbers, which is 19 percent of the sample":

President

McCain (R) 40
Obama (D) 52

Senate

Dole (R) 40
Hagan (D) 58

Governor

Purdue (D) 55
McCrory (R) 37

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mago:

Weirdly, only 19% of the sample had already voted. Given that 2M people have voted, that's odd, though of course the polling was not all done yesterday.

@Raleigh,
Again, really insightful observations that add substance to the discussion. I almost miss boomshak.

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NW Patrick:

RaleighNC are you a polling novice? Nice try? Like they made this up. Some polls show Hagan up 9. Hell, your man RASMUSSEN shows plus 6. What's so shocking to you? DENIAL LATELY?

RCP Average 10/22 - 10/29 -- 47.8 44.4 Hagan +3.4

Rasmussen 10/29 - 10/29 700 LV 52 46 Hagan +6
CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 690 LV 53 44 Hagan +9
National Journal/FD 10/23 - 10/27 402 RV 45 43 Hagan +2
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 601 LV 47 43 Hagan +4

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chrisinnc:

@Raleigh -

You're right. I don't think Kay is ahead by 5. I think more likely, based on movement shown in yesterday's rass poll, the way the national media, CharlotteO, Raleigh N&O, and GSO N&R have gone after Dole for her "godless ad", as well as turnout, Hagan's ahead by more like 8.

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NW Patrick:

Damn Liberal Rsrch 2000/DailyK showing Hagen with less of a lead then RASMUSSEN!

My name is RaleighNC and I just shoot my mouth off without facts. YAH!

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abraxaf:

RaleighNC = the new boomshak, only not so rational

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fed:

The reason why early voters make up a lower percentage of this poll is because some demographics that already voted are under sapmpled. For example AA, democrats make up a higher percentage of the early votes so far, compare the demographics of early voters to the sample of the poll

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hou04:

Has anyone just seen McCain on ABCnews, telling Charlie Gibson:

"I am confident. Our internal polling shows we are 1, or 2, or 3, or 4 points behind".


Or 5, or 6, or 7, or 8.

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Atomique:

Keep up the hard work down there in NC! McCain has virtually no ground game in the state, so a little volunteering can go a long way!

Yes we can! ¡Sí se puede!

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RightAsRain:

Ummm... Great news in MS! Now we can ease back in the deep South and concentrate on some other areas.

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zotz:

abraxaf-
You guys do know that boom used several different monikers. Wakeup was one of them but I think he had others. I think he is still here although he probably is trying to keep a low profile (as much as he can).

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Observer:

The obvious riposte from a McCain supporter is: Well if even Kos can only find 47% support for Obama he doesn't have much chance in NC.

Oddly Kos had slipped to the middle of the pack on the national trackers, giving a better result for McCain than Gallop at the moment.

I will be surprised if things stay that way but stranger things have happened. Last time I think Fox has the only poll to give an eve of election lead to Kerry.

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Atomique:

@Observer:

I think that had more to do with FOX's style of journalism: try to find some news, and then report the complete opposite of whatever you find.

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Dana Adini:

In NC 2,078,050 have voted as of early this morning

Dems 52.6% or 1,093,054
Rep 29.6% or 615,103
other 17.8% or 369,893

if u use Ras distribution by party ID

O r- 6% d- 87% i44%
M r 93% d- 12% 53%

you get that out of this morning:

Obama: 55.37%
McCain 43.27%

turnout as % of registered voters as of this morniong

Dem: 38.56%
Rep. 30.92%
Other. 26.71%

Dems who are +13 in terms of registration need the magic number of 70.17% turnout to uotpolls GOP even if latter reach 100% turnout

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Dana Adini:

to outpoll GOP (sorry for typo)

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Dewey1858:

@hou04:
Has anyone just seen McCain on ABCnews, telling Charlie Gibson:

"I am confident. Our internal polling shows we are 1, or 2, or 3, or 4 points behind".

That simply reflects the fact that the internal polls were changing as he was speaking.

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zotz:

Observer-
Zogby also said Kerry would win.

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Paul:

NC - Saturday --- Early voting is extended from 10am - 1pm to 10am - 5pm in Mecklenburg and Guilford Counties.

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oicu:

Hagan will run away with this election. This is not yopur grandfather's NC anymore. People here will be as disgusted as I am by Dole's slimy tactics.

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Dana Adini:

paul

that's good since it's last day of early voting. Hope dems get to 50% turnout by end of early voting will give them a shot

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Dana Adini:

yup Dole and and Chambliss are two sleazy GOP senators who I hope go down in flames

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Kile Thomson:

where is bookshak ?

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

Anybody notice RCP has ARIZONA as a toss-up now?! Is that what tightening looks like?

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NeutralNick:

I still can't spell misissippi, but I can spell landslide.

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radmod:

RaleighNC:

When we were in OBX a few weeks back (the Outer Banks of NC for those not from this area) we noticed a surprisingly large amount of support for Obama. Even in the rural drive to OBX, there didn't seem to be much support for McCain.
Sad, sad fact:
I live in VA and take mini-vacations in NC every so often. I've been in VA now for five years and have been in NC for about 35 days, IIRC. That's MORE than Liddy Dole in the last six years!!!!!!

I'm not convinced that Obama is going to win NC, but I certainly don't think Dole is.

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Dana Adini:

I'm thinking Landslide too but I'll a squeeker as well.....just send mccain back to the desert

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Gary Kilbride:

No one is focusing on the gov race. Go Perdue! There are only two competitive gov races and Dems need to sweep Perdue and Gregoire. The prospects for 2010 aren't great so greed is good this cycle. Same in the House and Senate.

2010 = defense

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carl29:

Today Larry Sabato, the Political Science Prof. of "Crystal Ball," said that he thinks that Obama takes VA. Throughtout this campaign he had been very, very skeptical of Obama's chances but says that for the information he has and everything he sees in the state he thinks that it will go blue on Tuesday :-)

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Observer:

@ Dana Adini:

I doubt the the official registered number of voters per party and the party ID recorded by Rasmussen can be used in this way. The Registered Democrat figure might include:

Democrats who registered as such years ago, maybe when first old enough to vote, but have long since considered themselves to be Republicans (when canvassed by Rasmussen).

Anybody who registered or re-registered in order to take part in the Dem Primary a few months ago but who still considers themeselves to be Republicans.

And vice-versa of course.

Obama might in fact be ahead, but we don't know that from this figures, even if the polls are completely accurate.

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carl29:

@Observer,

"Democrats who registered as such years ago, maybe when first old enough to vote, but have long since considered themselves to be Republicans (when canvassed by Rasmussen)."

That's why some pollsters ask the actual question: Regardless of how you have voted in the past, today do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent? I don't know if that is a more accurate picture, but it seems that some pollsters think it is.

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DPartridge:

Dana Adini...

Where did you get the breakdown of republican/democrat/independent votes for North Carolina early voting?

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Observer:

@radmod said: "I live in VA and take mini-vacations in NC every so often. I've been in VA now for five years and have been in NC for about 35 days, IIRC. That's MORE than Liddy Dole in the last six years!!!!!!"

That reminds me of an old story about an English politician who was accosted by one of his constituents with exactly this sort of complaint. His reply was along the lines: "Madam, I was elected to represent this town in Parliament, not to represent Parliament in this town."

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Dana Adini:
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carl29:
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Dana Adini:

true thats why u have such a high number of dems voting GOP on ras and SUSA polls...registered dems who are really republicans. In any event. Dem turnout is really high and I think there is a shot to win this red state

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radmod:

@Observer

Duh, that's why Dole's losing! She isn't really representing NC and they see it.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"Has anyone just seen McCain on ABCnews, telling Charlie Gibson:
'I am confident. Our internal polling shows we are 1, or 2, or 3, or 4 points behind'."

If McCain is 4 points behind at this point, he has lost.

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Dana Adini:

i think he is lost as well as has lost

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Dana Adini:

hey he figures 4 points is two possession game no big deal hit a three pointer steal the inbounds pass make a lay up

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DPartridge:

Dana Adini...

Your numbers are interesting, but do they take in effect that North Carolina is an open primary state for Republican/Democratic parties? Meaning, there is no real reason for voters to update their registration if you change party affiliation.

It appears to me that your assumption of a 70.17% turnout needed for an Obama win, relies on the fact that the actual % of party affiliation is correct.

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carl29:

@C.S.Strowbridge,

That's exactly what Guliani said until the morning of the primaries in FL when all the polls had him down by double digits :-)

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Dana Adini:

when u go to NC sec. of state website its listed

registered

dems 2,835,022
gop 1,989,188
other 1,385,086

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Dana Adini:

the other thing that's encourging is that gender breakdown is:

Men 42.7%
Women 56.5%
unknown 0.2%

bit worrried about the unknown didn't see them on ras crosstabs

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Dana Adini:

early voting number in Florida are also great compared to 2004 early numbers

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Dana Adini:

early voting number in Florida are also great compared to 2004 early numbers

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NC Yellow Dog:

I am probably late pointing this out because I signed up for an account just to point this out...

No one in North Carolina switches parties to vote in the other party primary. If you want to vote in the other party primary you switch to Unaffiliated. Our primaries are party + unaffiliated.

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DPartridge:

Dana Adini

I'm not doubting the number of registered Democrats in NC.... I'm doubting that in the state of North Carolina they actually vote Democrat. Nobody is required to update their registration information in NC unless they MOVE, or change names. The fact that they change their vote from Democrat to Republican isn't a reason why they have to update their registration. In the primary, they simply ask for the ballot they want.

You made an assumption in your analysis that all registered Dem's would vote for Obama... thats the assumption that is leading you to the innacurate 70.2%. ;-)

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blakec:

"Oddly Kos had slipped to the middle of the pack on the national trackers, giving a better result for McCain than Gallop at the moment. "

It's not that odd. Kos isn't trying to drive narrative like the Republican pollsters. Kos is looking for which races are close, so he can direct the money bomb from the base to the most effective place. Self deception doesn't help with that.

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Dana Adini:

good point

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Dana Adini:

dpartridge

I can only go by crosstabs of pollsters. if you combine the fact that high % of Dems, Women and AA along with NC Yellow Dog comments about switching to unaffilated in primary leads me to believe that Barack is ahead.

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Dana Adini:

the other obvious thing that early votes show is that Nevada is going BLUE. Hard to spin this one...numbers are outstanding

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crawjo:

Yeah, I don't like the way people assume that a poll's sponsor drives the result of the poll. Even the Fox poll from yesterday that had a different party ID breakdown...if the pollster doesn't control for that, then you are going to get results like that. It doesn't mean that pollsters are cooking the books to "drive a narrative."

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NC Yellow Dog:

DPartridge,

Certainly the ticket splitters exist, but I rather doubt they constitute enough of the 2008 NC registered Dems to account for the early voting disparity.

I wouldn't put money on the presidential race here, either way. It will be close and it may be the last race east of the Mississippi called.

Hagan on the other hand, I think I would put money on. Dole's ads have been very odd all though the cycle and didn't pass the smell test. As if she was running against a generic democrat, playing from Jessie Helms 1990 or 1984 campaign book.

Hagan's adds have been re-enforcing exactly what North Carolinians already thought of Dole. She was a carpet bagger who didn't represent the state well and was more interested in the Washington cocktail scene than the problems of the people in North Carolina.

Hagan's run a very smart campaign and she's always on message, but you don't beat an incumbent without that incumbent helping you.

It should also be noted that Jessie never won his races by big margins and aside from him NC hasn't re-elected a senator since 1968. And that was Sam Ervin!

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Dana Adini:

Yellow Dog.

Think you are right on. NC and Indiana will go down to the wire and can go either way. Dole is toast.....That Godless ad was the last straw.

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Dana Adini:

Yellow Dog.

Think you are right on. NC and Indiana will go down to the wire and can go either way. Dole is toast.....That Godless ad was the last straw.

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Basil:

Dana

Unknowns still have to keep a low profile in NC just to stay alive. Most migrated west years ago.

@Anybody/Everybody

Can you think of a way to do an EV pool? I say 367, but I sympathize with any anti-jinx sentiment.

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straight talk:

Who said that McCain is getting all republicans?

But that Georgia Early voting scene should have that McCain Campaign worried!!!

Because only ethusiasm will make you stand in lines like that GA line and Fl lines!

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Dana Adini:

Basil

yup unknowns live underground in NC. I guess on Tuesday we can do a EV and popular vote pool. What do the winners get?

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NC Yellow Dog:

Dana:

The Godless ad has played incredibly badly here from what I can tell. The local news have not been kind about it (ironically even as the ad itself ran those programs). Hagan's response is one of the sharpest I've ever seen in any race, but brought it back to the message. Jobs and the economy. And "false witness against fellow christians" is a lot worse here than calling Dole a "liar".

I'll give you an example of how on message Hagan has been. In her first response to the Godless ad, in front of her church, she said "I don't know what it was like when she _lived_ here, but this is unacceptable in my North Carolina."

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Dana Adini:

I will be happy if she loses hate candidates from wither party who think the have monopoly on God...God has bigger fish to fry than to worry about who will be next senator from NC. Dole's a joke

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Pat:

Obama Supporters:

Polls are great but we have not won anything yet. We should all volunteer and work hard over the weekend to GOTV. I am worried about Dem complacency.

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Basil:

Dana

How about a TV appearance with Mark lavishly praising the winner as representing what's right with blogging in America today? Say on Olbermann or Maddow?

Even with GOP vote-rigging, I say Big O wins 52%/49% with Nader/Barr/McKinney splitting another 1%. ;-)

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NC Yellow Dog:

The real nile biter here, more than the presidential race, will be the governors race. Perdue is not of the same wing of the party as Hagan or Obama. She's from the Republican lite wing, and not even a very impressive one at that. Most of the people I know who are voting for her, are more voting against McCrory.

Perdue ran one of the worse campaigns I've ever seen until about a month ago when she started playing a winning hand. If she pulls this out, it will be luck not skill.

It's a bit like Gregoire, who isn't well liked in Washington either, but neither is her opponent. As a friend from Seattle told me, "the fact that Gregoire is better than Dino Rossi isn't a ringing endorcement of Gregoire."

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NC Yellow Dog:

Pat,

It's 9PM at night Eastern... I phone banked for a state candidate today, I'm canvasing this weekend, and I'm spending all day as a partisan poll observer on election day. I'm frankly tired of listening to people on the internet yell at other people they don't know to go volunteer. You don't know what we're doing, or how much we've given.

Complacency is bad. Nagging is not much better.

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Dana Adini:

yup NC gov race is important as well. you guys certainly have a great election year..real yawner here in Jersey

Basil I think Obama wins popular vote 52.5 to 46 with 1.5 going to other with over 350 EV's

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Dana Adini:

pat:

going to phone bank monday....might go canvass in PA on Sunday....

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NC Yellow Dog:

The one thing to remember if the governors race does go to the Republican, that North Carolina has an extraordinarily weak governorship. The office didn't even have veto power until the last decade.

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Dana Adini:

hoping for a sweep in NC. high turnout so far so good

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kc_in_MN:

Re: complacency,

I came across this:

www.theyoungturks.com/story/2008/10/31/10256/668/Diary/Volunteers-are-dropping-like-flies

I hope this is not a widespread problem. I just signed up to phone bank for the next two days. I have previously stuck to non-interactive volunteer efforts since I spend my workdays talking almost non-stop for 8 hrs/day.

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NC Yellow Dog:

A sweep will be nice, but it will be tough. The demographics have been shifting, but I wouldn't have put the shift until 2012 or 2016.

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DPartridge:

I hadn't seen the ad or Hagan's response until reading it here. So I went and looked for it... and only could find descriptions of what took place in the ad. I would equate this ad to be equal to the sexist ad Obama put out with Palin winking... both are equally wrong. How many of you blasting the Dole ad... also blasted the Obama ad???

Thought so...

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AB:

The early voting as of 10:00 pm Oct 30:
2,076,990 early voters (33.33% of registered voters)
1,092,278 Dems (52.59% as compared to 45.71% of registered voters)
614,768 Repubs (29.60% as compared to 31.99% of registered voters)
369,054 Inds (17.77% as compared to 22.25% of registered voters)

SBOE logged in 229,000+ voters in the previous 24 hours.
It's reasonable to expect 450-500,000 additional early voters on Friday and Saturday. Because SBOE seems to lag a little behind in their reporting it's easily possible that 3,000,000 (~50%) of voters will vote early this year.

Democrats continue to marginally expand their lead in registration on a day to day basis. The reason that this can happen is that with one stop voting you can register and vote in person in the county that you live in. This is significant; in the last couple of days SBOE has processed registrations for ~37,000 voters, ~21,000 Dems, ~8,000 repubs. It's just my opinion, but I don't think new voters are registering Dem to vote for McCain ...

It's also my opinion that early voters are probably voting more closely to party lines than might be expected. Enthusiasm for Obama among a huge base is very obvious here in NC; we're working hard to get the early vote, and I believe we're reaching our voters.

Regarding Guilford and Mecklenberg counties -- deep deep Democratic voting pools. Check the AA registrations in Guilford, check the 2004 vote in Meck (which includes Charlotte.

Dana Adini -- sorry not to get to that question from this morning sooner. www.sboe.nc.us.gov great website.

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BUS:

New Rick Davis memo: that Obama hasn't hit 50 in major battleground states is a key "structural weakness". Nevada, Virgina, Colorado and Ohio (49.6!) obviously are not important here, not to speak of Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. No wonder he sees Iowa tied: he can't count!

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Batony:

Hey...just saw the Jeremiah wright ad here in Northern Virginia. Interesting.

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NC Yellow Dog:

DPartridge,

I'm a woman and I found the fact that Palin winked at the camera sexist and offensive as a woman. So no, I have no problem with it being used against her.

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Dana Adini:

AB

it ususally updates in the morning like 5 am. If there is 3,000,000 votes prior to election day........Hagen is a shoe in the dems have a fair shot in the other two races

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Dewey1858:

@DPartridge:
I hadn't seen the ad or Hagan's response until reading it here. So I went and looked for it... and only could find descriptions of what took place in the ad. I would equate this ad to be equal to the sexist ad Obama put out with Palin winking... both are equally wrong. How many of you blasting the Dole ad... also blasted the Obama ad???

Uh, sorry, but the Obama ad wasn't sexist, it was about McCain's poor judgement.

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Batony:

That Dole ad on Hagan is really tough...unfortunately in NC, it may just work.

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NC Yellow Dog:

Dana,

I doubt there will be 3,000,000 votes by election day. At the rate they're going I'd put the number somewhere closer to 2,600,000. Last day of early voting is tomorrow.

There are ~6,000,000 registered voters in NC, and a record turnout would be 70% or about 4,300,000ish.

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Dana Adini:

AB

got it thanks for the link

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Dana Adini:

it's not just the high % of dems but high % of women and AA....makes me believe not some conservative who registered as a dem 40 years ago and never bothered changing

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NC Yellow Dog:

Batony,

I wont say it wont work, but the state's demographics are significantly different from Jessie Helms North Carolina. And helps did not win those elections on the the basis of those ads, no matter what the media likes to tell you. He won re-election because he was VERY good at constituent services. The people here always knew Jessie was working for them.

I didn't like him, but I respected that aspect of him.

Calling a sunday school teacher an atheist (yes, that's what that ad was about, I don't particularly care if you want to quibble with the technicalities) is NOT going down well here, even amogn the old timers.

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NC Yellow Dog:

Dana,

The women and AA turnout figures both in NC and in GA are very impressive. If they hold, those races are won for the democrats. I'm just skeptical that they will hold to the degree nessecary after Nov. 4.

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Dana Adini:

it's not just the high % of dems but high % of women and AA....makes me believe not some conservative who registered as a dem 40 years ago and never bothered changing

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DPartridge:

AB:

I wasn't talking about the "new" voters... I'm also not saying that the Dem's aren't winning in the early vote. I'm saying, the 70.2% number Dana Adini used is innacurate, because the Democratic registration number doesn't reflect actual historical voting trends in North Carolina. That's all I'm saying.

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Dana Adini:

very peaceful without boom.....wanted to taunt him so bad on Tuesday

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tar_heel:

I live in Charlotte, and I believe that Dole is toast around here. I know many people voting for the two Mcs who will split their tickets to get Dole out of the Senate.

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blakec:

We should see AZ turned yellow in the morning update.

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Dana Adini:

well partridge you may be right but 70% is just an arbitrary number if dems get to 70% gop wont get to 100%...so im using it more as a yurnout benchmark rather than an indicator

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cinnamonape:

But DPartridge...the polls are not following the "historical voting (or polling) trends". This is not Bush 2000 or 2004 or Dole 1996. The polls consistently show an Obama lead or within the MOE.

So I'm not certain that one can rely on "historical voting trends". If one could do this all we'd have to do is look at the last election results and give it to that Party. Why poll? And why have elections?

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NC Yellow Dog:

tar_heel,

That's good to hear. I'm in Wake County.

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tar_heel:

Yellow Dog:

What do you see over there? Can you turn Wake blue? Meck. Co. went for Kerry and will doubtlessly go for Obama even more. The early voting lines are endless and include lots of young people and African Americans. Needless to say, McCrory has the Meck. vote in the bag--Perdue is very unpopular in CLT.

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DTM:

On a topic raised above:

I don't think it is surprising the R2K poll sponsored by Daily Kos has slipped behind the Gallup and ABC/Post polls in terms of the margin for Obama. It is well known the R2K poll includes a relatively high (although not implausible) partisan ID advantage for the Democrats. But on the other hand, I believe they aren't calling cell phones and are not doing a lot of callbacks (if any), both of which are factors that cut against Obama's numbers. In contrast, I believe both Gallup and ABC/Post are doing cell phones, and I think both may be doing more callbacks.

So, it wouldn't surprise me if as the election has neared, those differences ended up mattering more than partisan ID. In which case, despite the relatively favorable partisan ID weightings, R2K might still be on the conservative side when it comes to Obama's numbers. But we shall see.

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DPartridge:

Dana Adini:
I don't see a "high" number of women... in fact, there are .1% LESS women (in percentages) who have voted early in NC, then voted in 2004 (56.5% to 56.6%). The black voter turnout has been better, with an increase of over 5% over the registration (no 2004 numbers to compare actual vote to). That percentage is just slightly ahead of the early voting in Georgia for blacks. The problem lies in the fact that the percentage turnout have been slipping for the black vote since the initial days in Georgia. I would expect that may be happening in NC as well.


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NC Yellow Dog:

What I've seen on the ground in Wake has been far from scientific. I poked my head into a couple of early voting sites here every few days to see what they were like. The lines have been consistant, but fairly quickly moving.

I have been doing a bumpersticker count in parking lots of those early voting sites and usually come up with something around 2:1 or 5:2 Obama to McCain stickers (counting the "Elect Sarah Palin" and "Nobama" ones as McCain). I wouldn't put too much emphasis on that, but i'd call it a mark of enthusasm.

All of those observations have been in the wealthy suburbs of Wake County (Cary predominantly).

THere is an early voting location down the street from my workplace and i'm going to poke my head in tomorrow to gage how things are going.

I think if Obama wins, Hagan wins. Perdue is an animal of her own creation. While she might not be popular in Charlotte, she seems to be playing a Charlotte against the rest of the state strategy and frankly... I think that might work.

The rest of the state does have some issues with the Queen City as I'm sure you know ;). The Yankee Trash ad has played well around here.

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hou04:

Drudge has Zogby numbers...

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Dana Adini:

hate to break news to Mr. Davis but if he can do math.....McCain is done in Iowa, NM and nevada according to early voting numbers. those 3 states will be called when their polls close

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Cho:

wow, zogby continues to make a joke of himself

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mrzookie:

Zogby strikes again. Headline on Drudge:

ZOGBY: MCCAIN MOVES INTO LEAD 48-47 IN ONE DAY POLLING

Birds of a feather....

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NC Yellow Dog:

Zogby's going to destroy his reputation if he keeps this up.

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pbcrunch:

So, according to Zogby, the race went from a +7 Obama to McCain +1 in one day? Right, OK... well, 5% of any set of polls using a certain methodology is bound to be a fluke.

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McPalinocchioIsAJoke:

Only 93 hours remaining before polls are closed in IN, GA, VA and maybe NC
Only 93 hours to go guys, hold on we're almost done with those spins and misleading information

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NW Patrick:

Zogby is a joke. This is the guy who missed the 2004 election by what..8 points? Now he's leaking info. to D R U D G E every time there is a good McCain result with a +2 Dem ID? Apparently McCain had a good polling night. Obama will still be up but god do they look for the "Silver Lining." Zogby's own phone state polls don't match his national.

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Dana Adini:

bernalillo county which accounted for 33% of NM votes in 2004 won by kerry 51-48

53-33-14 d-r-i

dems 48% turnout (the lights)

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NW Patrick:

Note +1 in ONE DAY polling.

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Cho:

anyone know if zogby will continue to poll on monday? if so, fridays numbers will be the last ones to roll off and he could set up a nice last minute obama-surge and fridays numbers wont affect his final prediction.

____________________

cjk002:

Drudge's Zogby numbers have been wrong twice in the last 2 weeks. We'll have to see about this tomorrow.

____________________

cube:

what does "one day polling" mean? I can't find the link. I'd guess that it means 1 out of 3 averaged days. If so, tomorrows zogby would be about O+4. Or it could be a separate, 1-day poll.

Another question: is friday afternoon-evening (+halloween) considered a special, or non-representative, time?

____________________

Dana Adini:

no obama still up in zogby poll....Mcain was +1 in the last night of polling...Obama probably plus 5 in the overall poll

zogby has no reputation

____________________

NW Patrick:

Zogby was one of the worst national pollsters in '04. Is he a PUMA or something? What kind of organization, a supposed DEM, allows #'s to leak to DRUDGE?

____________________

NW Patrick:

Yah Obama's #'s will drop in Zogby tonight. WHO CARES. I'm sticking with Gallop.. they've only missed the prediction ONCE in history and it was not in 2004. It was 60 years ago when they quit polling 1 week before the election. They learned their lesson from that and have been right ever since.

____________________

AB:

IN NC in 2004:
Overall turnout was 64%
66% 0f Dems voted
69% of Repubs voted
Inds were in the 50s
59% of registered AAs voted (I think this will be higher this year.)

____________________

Brad4Barack:

Zogby plans this. Remember last Saturday night when he showed a close race just so it would be the talk of the Sunday morning shows?(It wasn't) Zogby and Drudge are so intent on making this a close race. Gee, it couldn't be that most young adults and those with kids were gone tonight. Who would be home? Uh, mostly old people without lives.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Good point LOL Is this +1 from tonight? Halloween?:) LOL Keep in mind. That's out of what about 300 people?

____________________

NW Patrick:

Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)

KERRY 311 BUSH 213

Yep!:)

____________________

Pat:

I can not find any Zogby numbers on Drudge. This is a joke???

____________________

Kile Thomson:

where is boomshak ?

____________________

Brad4Barack:

I don't understand why Zogby makes such a big deal about his one-night samples. Remember when Rasmussen showed a big McCain night last Sunday? Ras never even mentioned the strong polling night in his write up, even though it was quite obvious. That's because of the large margin of error. Professional pollsters know that polls have to be taken in their entirety... not just a fraction of it.

____________________

mrzookie:

MnLatte & other MNs out there:

Is the Wicked Witch of MN-06 on her broom shrieking at the Halloween moon? Is Tinkley gonna toss a bucket of water on her next Tuesday?

What news have you?

____________________

SoloBJ:

@Brad4Barack,
It's so obvious that it's like clockwork. I was saying to myself tonight.... when are we going to see Zogby talk about a "new" McCain surge, Saturday or Sunday? Guess he chose Saturday.

In any event, I expect things will tighten overall leading up to Tuesday but Zogby and his wild swing polling is just ridiculous and lame.... especially when it becomes the headline for Drudge before the poll is officially released.

____________________

cjk002:

NW Patrick:

Good point about it being Halloween night. I wonder how many people weren't at home in the early evening.

I did an online poll for Zogby tonight, I wonder if it is part of this result.

____________________

Dewey1858:

@Brad4Barack:
I don't understand why Zogby makes such a big deal about his one-night samples. Remember when Rasmussen showed a big McCain night last Sunday? Ras never even mentioned the strong polling night in his write up, even though it was quite obvious. That's because of the large margin of error. Professional pollsters know that polls have to be taken in their entirety... not just a fraction of it.

That's why I think it reflects negatively on Zogby that he would leak numbers and allow someone to post a headline like: "McCain moves into lead ... " as it goes against the whole notion of tracking across multiple days.

____________________

Dana Adini:

brad

I agree. Zogby was a non entity until hannity gave him time because he used dem + 2. you dont have to be a rocket scientist to see from early voting that dems are much higher than + 2. dems have had huige registration drives over the last 4 years and this year they have huge turnout so far.

Zogby is good for drudge......NOT WORRIED

____________________

cjk002:

Is anyone else having trouble pulling up the Zogby site? He sometimes teases the next days polling on his front page.

I wonder if Drudge might have crashed the site by sending a bunch of panicked Obama supporters like myself there looking for clues.

____________________

cinnamonape:

One methodological point. I was wondering if there might actually be a sampling effect due to long waits in line during early voting.

If there were polls that don't sample by cell-phone and you have tens or even hundreds of thousands of people waiting in line to vote... then you might miss these individuals in your polling.

Thus one could conceive of a scenario where, if there was a disproportionate number of voters participating in early voting that you might undersample them.

Ironically these would be the very people who would be the highest LV's you could get!

So I guess the question is...in a sample of say 1000 Registered Voters...what's the probability of one of them being unavailable for a poll because they are in a line at a polling booth at the time of the survey?

____________________

Dana Adini:

cjk002

relax breathe in, out, in, out....the election won't be close don't worry. McCain himself said tonight we was down by 4 points...he's barely ahead in arizona u think he winning nationally

as they used to say in the old country (not sure which one)

Morgan

____________________

Dewey1858:

If I remember correctly, Zogby had a big night for Obama Monday, which rolled off today. But after that big night, Obama actually went down a point, which means McCain might well have had a strong Tuesday. That Tuesday would be the day due to roll of tomorrow, which would minimize the damage done by a strong McCain night tonight. Maybe I'm missing something, but more likely I'm over thinking it (and over tired).

____________________

Dana Adini:

not sure who "they" are either

____________________

Brad4Barack:

Even if McCain has suddenly surged (which he hasn't), what can the 65% of folks in Colorado who've already voted do? NOTHING! That's right! Not even a Zogby turd can affect those who've already cast ballots.

____________________

cube:

Does Zogby weight dems +2? If so, why?

Speaking of this, I'd like to see the arguments for using party weighting. Some do, some don't. Using party weighting should decrease variability from day to day. If that's true then it would decrease the MOE in some hard-to-define way. Certainly MOE wouldn't just be SD/sqrt(n) as in a standard random sample. My impression is that, if a pollster uses party weighting, the poll result is a more a function of party weightings selected than sample. This should be good for trends, but weaker for accurate estimates of the mean.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Didn't Zogby have Obama up by 10...lemme see...ten days ago?

So this has been the greatest turnaround in election history! Rrrrrrrrrright! And all the other pollsters were wrong, and didn't even detect the movement! LOL!

____________________

NW Patrick:

I just read a blogger in the WA Post site BREAKING NEWS MCCAIN NOW UP 1 IN ZOGBY. Polling novice! LOL He's gonna be surprised tomorrow when it's O still up. He didn't read it said in ONE night polling LOL (300 people or so.) God they just JUMP at the site of ANY good news. It's kinda cute.

____________________

Brad4Barack:

Zog new most pollsters were showing gains for Obama today. Therefore, he manipulated his numbers and leaked them to Drudge so he could stand out. Fool me once...

____________________

political_junki:

Man I miss that boomshak at times like this to tell us Obama is being DESTROYED! lol

____________________

Dana Adini:

cube

when you do a national poll with a sample of 2000, you are averaging 40 per state weighted out. they don't weight parties in state. so they are assuming that a dem in NC has the same voting patterns as a dem in NY. They assume that voters throughout the sample are homogenous and we know they are not.

I think national tracking polls are more religion than science.

i think a better way to measure popular votes is to do a cross sectional weighted average of state polls. definately less noise there

____________________

RightAsRain:

Friends, don't panic. McCain's PA strategy seems to be paying off, but Obama's not finished--He will still be a senator.

____________________

asquared:

Wasn't there a new CNN national poll due out today?

____________________

Dana Adini:

Right

please be here at 7 on Tueday when polls close in Indiana

____________________

political_junki:

RightAsRain:
Pretty soon we will have:
Liberal President
Liberal Congress
Liberal Senate
Liberal Supreme Court

Lets see who panics then :-)))

____________________

hou04:

PA (Morning Call/Muhlenberg) for tomorrow

Obama 52
McCain 44

____________________

Dana Adini:

52-44 works all day..ship it

____________________

political_junki:

hou04:
Where did you get the number from?
My guess is that McCain will go as high as 47 on that poll, but Obama will not go lower than 50...

____________________

radmod:

@DPartridge

Let me say that I think you have something there. I want to believe that it was NC in 2004 that I had seen that had more registered Dems than Reps and that got my head scratching about why it was a red state. I think it is a combo of Dems not voting and possible pro-Reagan Dixiecrats, if you will.

So, am I understanding correctly, that you can't simply change your registration from one party to the other?
Fortunately, I now live in VA, which is still (annoyingly to Reps) an open primary state. Since I refuse to register in any party, this is a great boon for me.
[Side note: I was actually going to register Rep in 2000, in LA - to vote for McCain! The old McCain that is]

____________________

hou04:

yeah... but 4 pts down since 2 days ago

____________________

tar_heel:

That's now five points down from Wednesday's 13-point lead and largely due to what must have been a great McCain sample yesterday. Look for this poll to stabilize at O+8 and go up again on Monday.

____________________

Obama's Pitbull:

all thewestern PA folks are coming home McCain

____________________

radmod:

Has anyone heard anything from the most accurate Presidential Poll ever done? Namely, the number of Halloween mask sales? IIRC, the candidate whose masks sells more wins. Or is it the other way around?

____________________

zotz:

NW Patrick-
Zogby polls only 300 people a night? There is no way he can weight the demographics with such a small sample in a national poll. Are you sure about that?

____________________

tar_heel:

rad: you can easily switch party registration in NC. It's just that once you're registered either as a D or as an R, you can't vote in the other party's primary.

____________________

Dana Adini:

hou 04

obama has been at 52-53 the last two weeks..mccain has picked up undecideds but not knocked off obama support.

hard to lose at 52

____________________

hou04:

here's the link to PA poll

http://www.mcall.com/all-pres-widgetlist,0,3165119.htmlstory

It was 53-43 earlier today

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

Dewey1858 said...
"I hadn't seen the ad or Hagan's response until reading it here. So I went and looked for it... and only could find descriptions of what took place in the ad."

Didn't look very much, did you?

Go to youtube.com, put 'dole hagan' in the search bar, and you'll find a lot of videos discussing the ads.

In fact, you can find the actual ads with no filter - the entire, actual ads as they ran on TV.

Since you are obviously so incompetent at finding things on the Internet, I'll help you by providing direct links to the youtube clips:

Dole ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lf2vDk-4Ag&NR=1

Hagan response:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k76tRXq0ZC0

____________________

political_junki:

hou04:
"yeah... but 4 pts down since 2 days ago"
So then what is the your point of giving us the bad news early? You want us to co miserate?
He will win PA.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

Kile Thomson said...
"where is boomshak ?"

/blogs/why_are_the_comments_disabled.html

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

*SIGH*

Zogby

Only thing that worries me is the feedback loop, touted by Fox screaming their heads off about a "surge" which energizes the Right and possibly makes people start to rethink Obama.

It's a total BS manufactured headline but we need to remember that this is not over yet. Wait in line to vote, as long as it takes - fight until the end!!!

____________________

orange24:

And remember, McCain is spending a ridiculous amount of resources and time in PA. Even if he flips it (which he won't), he'll have lost so many other states (including his own) to completely offset it anyway.

Finally, look at the big picture. Between now and election day, Barack Obama is not scheduled to be in PA once. This campaign has been run almost flawlessly. Nobody really thinks they'd just give up on PA if there was a chance they could actually lose it! They're sending Scranton's favorite son, Joe Biden, there over the weekend to close the deal. No worries there. Better to worry about OH, NC, MO, FL, and VA.

____________________

oberon:

I have been following this for a year. Rarely post but now.....please please tell me pollsters. Obama is going to win.

I am so excited but scrared nothing can go wrong now can it?

____________________

hou04:

@ political_junki

haha! No, I am just worried. That's all.

____________________

Dana Adini:

NC poll dailykos

President: McCain (R) 45 (44), Obama (D) 47 (46)
President (already voted): McCain (R) 40, Obama (D) 52
Senate: Dole (R) 45 (45), Hagan (D) 50 (49)
Senate (already voted): Dole (R) 40, Hagan (D) 58
Governor: Perdue (D) 49 (48), McCrory (R) 44 (43)
Governor (already voted): Perdue (D) 55, McCrory (R) 37

____________________

radmod:

@tar_heel

What about if you don't want to register for either party? As I mentioned, in VA you don't have to register in a party (you can) and, thus, you can vote in either primary. For example, I voted in Dem primary in 2004, Rep primary in 2006, and Dem this year.

____________________

political_junki:

oberon:
We are all like you. Hang in there, Obama will win :)

____________________

political_junki:

"hou04:

@ political_junki

haha! No, I am just worried. That's all.
"

Yup, we are all :)
Good thing is that it is gonna be over in 4 days...

____________________

mirrorball:

What's the MOE for a daily sample? I think the Zogby site says he polls 400 people each day.

____________________

orange24:

I think we're all just worried in general. It's hard to believe that it could actually finally happen. Nobody is taking anything for granted. I wish it was Wednesday morning already!

____________________

SoloBJ:

Looking at the new PA number for tomorrow, does anyone understand why I'm worried? Sure, Obama is still at or above 50 but we are talking about a +13 lead down to +8 in 2 days. Then we had two other polls showing him up +4-5 points which doesn't seem to far off now.

Also, McCain/Palin plan on making 4 more stops there before Election Day while PA is not even on the list for Obama.

I don't take anything for granted nor do I underestimate people. McCain, regardless of if he has no choice or not, has been spending a bunch of time there and I still don't understand why the Clintons and/or Barack are not due to make another visit there before Tuesday. With the recent PA polls, I actually wouldn't be surprised if one of them does decide to show face in PA.

Barack has run a great campaign thus far but there is always room for error and I'm not crazy about these recent PA polls.

____________________

Jaq:

I see Zogby is at it again. Anyone want to place bets on who else polls McCain at +1 for a day this weekend?

And everyone has been singing their heads off about a surge all week, despite there being little evidence such a thing has occurred or even the trend lines favoring Obama, so I'm not sure that Zogby having a day like that is going to make a lot of difference on a weekend.

Assuming it's true, an one day number favoring McCain like that is going to look odd after Zogby said the race was stuck in neutral today.

____________________

Dana Adini:

if you look at the already voted (kospoll above) vs. party early id you see that hagan and perdue have very little "leakage" obama has about a 2% leak so have to keep that in mind looking at early numbers

____________________

political_junki:

SoloBJ:
Where did you get tomorrows number? Can you share the link?"

____________________

KMartDad08:

The reason that Zogby's numbers for Obama were so bad today was that all of Obama's supporters were out--voting.

____________________

political_junki:

Also guys:
READ 538 ABOUT DRUDGE AND ZOGBY :-)

____________________

hou04:

ok guys.. one thing about Zogby:

Zogby's one day polling has 400 people. MOE for a 400-sample is 4%... meaning McCain's 48-47 in tonight's polling means nothing with 4% MOE.

____________________

zotz:

Even 400 a day nationally is going to give you large swings up and down. Ras doing 1000 a day gives much smaller variations.

____________________

Dana Adini:

from 538

Do you spook easily?

Judging by the response in my inbox, some of you do.

Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

So go out to your Halloween parties and enjoy yourself, and we'll be back to covering the polls for you tomorrow

____________________

radmod:

OK, it looks like Obama's winning the "mask" poll by as much as 14% but really along polling lines.
The "California Tortilla" (a pseudo-Cal-Mex restaurant) guaranteed accurate burrito sales poll has Obama slightly ahead:
Obama - 4,780 (51%) * McCain - 4,602 (49%)

____________________

RightAsRain:

I just dozed off and had a dream: It was election night. McCain had succeeded in flipping PA. OH and VA had come along too. It was 2:00 a.m., and Florida was at tie. McCain was on the phone with James Baker. Then I woke up and saw the Zogby headline.

____________________

SoloBJ:

@political_junki,

houo4 posted the link above.

____________________

fed:

remember noone was home today in PHilly......they had a huge parade lol

____________________

Dana Adini:

fed

now u ruined my night

____________________

hou04:

A few days ago, Zogby and his best buddy Drudge were screaming about Obama only leading McCain 49-46 in one night of polling. In a day or two, it was Obama moving ahead again.

Tonight's 48-47 is pretty much the same thing.

Zogby wants all the attention.

____________________

tar_heel:

rad: In N.C., you can register as an independent, in which you can choose which primary--D or R--you would like to vote in.

I don't like these PA numbers much, either. For the poll to go down from 13 to 10 you would have had a 15 point day (or so) replaced with a 6 point day. Or a 14 point day with a 5 point day. Then the drop to 8 points today suggests that the sudden decline that has decelerated. If I had to guess, the spread on the current Morning Call poll is something like 10-6-7, following numbers like 12-15-13. Unless Obama's numbers rebound tomorrow, we will see at least one more day of tightening before yesterday's figure drops off.

____________________

DTM:

The problem with the poll cherry-picking being practiced by the GOP outlets such as Drudge and Fox News is that each time subsequent polls don't confirm their claims, a few more people are going to be less subject to believe them the next time around. And at this point, we have been through many, many cycles of this.

____________________

Dana Adini:

guys enough with zogby..relax

I bet Brett Myers is voting mccain.

he has that curt schilling thing in him

____________________

radmod:

These small sample sizes bug me. My understanding was that you can't even get a 90% confidence interval with less than something like 900 respondents.
Please, please don't make me calculate it!

____________________

Dana Adini:

everybody was styling their homerun trot....some lousy outlier from the worst pollster on the plant one day sample and people are ready to jump off a cliff.... boy drudge is good.

chilllllllllllll

____________________

KMartDad08:

Drudge supposedly quotes from Zogby's poll that is coming out tomorrow: "[McCain] is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents..."

That would suggest that Obama STILL has a lead among independents. If that's true, but McCain took a one point lead overall, then that means that Zogby's overpolling Pubs (which I think is obvious) or that McCain is doing substantially better with Pubs than Obama is with Dems, which we have not seen any evidence of in any polling.

____________________

Dana Adini:

400 sample nationwide is like 8 per state weighted. so they polled 10 people in NC and 8 said mccain.....ok..it's meaningless

____________________

hou04:

ALL GO READ NATE SILVER'S TAKE ON ZOGBY'S POLL TONIGHT

www.fivethirtyeight.com

____________________

Jaq:

Dana Adini

Oh, I didn't buy the Zogby poll for a minute. I pretty much figured that he'd made the numbers dance like mad to get that one day turnaround. The fact that it was reported so quickly on Drudge, if nothing else, should suggest what's really going on here.

Ironically, I pretty much started ignoring Zogby when he said that Obama would win California by 13 points over Clinton in the primaries. Oops.

____________________

mirrorball:

Funny thing is, I just read two or three articles/columns today about how Drudge's influence is supposedly fading.

Both linked here:

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/media_figures_admitting_that_d.php

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

You gotta watch intrade to see if the people who are putting money on this believe the poll or treat it as an outlier.

____________________

hou04:

INTRADE as of tonight: McCain 16.9

____________________

Obama's Pitbull:

Read this from Gallup:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111697/Blacks-Appear-Poised-High-Turnout.aspx

Amazing Statistics from Gallup

____________________

Dana Adini:

Ok going to sleep wake up tomorrow watch Chelsea put a beating on Sunderland......

Which reminds me of a famous CFC chant/taunt
to John McCain

"You can't beat sunderland....you can't beat sunderland....you can't beat sunderland, etc"

4 words the entire song

http://www.fanchants.com/football-team/chelsea/

____________________

Dana Adini:

RELAX
IT
WILL
BE
OK

____________________

coffeemana:

Volunteered w/ Obama's GOTV today and was overwhelmed by enthusiasm for participation in this election. I am beginning to think this is really happening! & that the dem party finally has a decent ground game

____________________

asquared:

Not that I'm nervous or anything but is Obama or any proxies visiting PA in the next few days?

____________________

syrac818:

This election is literally driving me to drink. I want it over so badly at this point. If I could, I would get some sort of anesthesia to knock me out until about Tuesday, 10PM Eastern.

____________________

Basil:

OK I'm briefly back.

Dana

The 52/49 projection was a poor attempt at humor, involving GOP thugs running the total up over 100%. Sorry.

Your numbers sound about right.

I'm gone again. Happy Halloween.

____________________

Dana Adini:

i think he will be there with clinton (one of them)sunday

____________________

Dana Adini:

lol i missed that....sorry

____________________

hou04:

Compare Rasmussen's and Gallup sample's to Zogby's:

GALLUP and RASMUSSEN one-night polling sample: 1000 people

ZOGBY one-night polling sample: 400 people

So, Rasmussen and Gallup's one-night polling sample is almost as big as Zogby's ENTIRE 3-day combined sample.

That should tell you something when you see numbers like these from Zogby.

____________________

Dana Adini:

u guys are giving zogby to much press....relax grab a glass of wine, go to sleep Ras poll out in 9 hours...

let's go blues

____________________

Huskert-SD:

Syrac:

I'm with you. Only one thing in life used to get me so worked up...Husker football. Now? I'm a freakin' train wreck with this election! Been watching all the comments out here for awhile, first post.

I'm a scientist. I should no better. A huge part of my job is statistical analysis. But...2004, I left work after seeing the Ohio exit polls, and was giddy as a schoolgirl, thinking Kerry had won. Get home, and boom, reality sets in, and I'm depressed for a week.

But THIS?!?!? I swear I'm going to get carpal tunnel or something, hitting "refresh" on Pollster, Intrade, RCP, etc. 8 billion times a day.

I should know better!! Statistically speaking, it truly WOULD take some monumental event to change the current gap in the national and state polls. But hey, I'm a democrat...I've had my hopes up too much before!!

____________________

Dana Adini:

huskers wear red and they suck this year (no offense) should be a good omen

____________________

hou04:

GO SEE DRUDGE!!! He just change the wording about Zogby:

"Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday"

LOL!

____________________

Huskert-SD:

LOL Dana!!

My Huskers actually have a very good offense, but a bad defense. The one thing that lets me sleep at night...McCain/Palin has neither a good offense (certainly not a logical one) or a good defense.

____________________

hou04:

And how the hell is the three-day average holdi steady if McCain did so well tonight???

Hilarious. Cooked poll.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I guess that would mean Obama had a HUGE night in one of the nights?

____________________

asquared:

OK...now Drudges words quote Zogby as saying that "The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling"...so for you guys that play with the stats...what combo of numbers make that possible...or...does Drudge mean that the Friday half of the Thu/Fri sample being used is at 48/47, but not the whole sample?

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

When he says the average holds steady means if they hadn't leaked numbers like giddy schoolgirls no one would know anything happened. Seriously, these guys make Ras look like a man among children.

____________________

political_junki:

We should all boycott looking at Drudge. That is how he gets his high number of visits. Idiots like us :)

____________________

deeproy:

I keep saying this, so I hope I don't sound like a broken record, but...

At this point the only way McCain could win is cheat (barring a "perfect storm" which appears every day less likely). The more desperate the incumbent party becomes the higher the likelihood. Leaks and spin like this are meant to prepare a narrative in which a win by cheating would appear plausible and legitimate.

Get ready.

____________________

DTM:

As people at 538 are pointing out, the three-day average remaining the same likely would mean that McCain was only ahead in the portion of the latest sample taken on Friday (the latest sample will have both Thursday and Friday portions).

But even then I am still puzzled. Does Zogby actually weight the two portions of his samples individually? If not, then it would seem we may actually be talking about not just a partial sample, but an unweighted partial sample. Which would be a really silly thing to do.

Anyway, hopefully our questions are answered when Zogby official releases.

____________________

Dana Adini:

hukert,

trust me obama will be fine....it will be a landslide ala tom osborne running up the score with a sick ground game.....Obama camp not taking anything for granted GOTV is in full swing

____________________

asquared:

DTN:

Each daily sample covers polling done over the two days. (i.e., they start the polling for the Saturday's sample tonight and will continue polling fo it till 5PM Saturday)

____________________

Huskert-SD:

GOTV is what I think is sorely underrated, other than a few reports like the one on 538.

I'm amazed at the level of organization. I've donated multiple times online, and although South Dakota (where I now am) is always a lost cause for Dems, I'm still getting contacted often about driving over to Iowa to help the GOTV, complete with directions to the closest Obama location, ability to sign up for times, etc.

The McCain camp today came out and said GOTV resources were being diverted to match Obama ad-for-ad over the airwaves. Probably a big mistake, given how Repubs GOTV has given them such an edge in past elections.

____________________

sandman:

If the poll is back within the margin of error as stated, (2.9%) then the poll has not stayed +7 for Obama.

____________________

zen:

In NC primary, Obama outperformed the all polls by 6-10 point.

My guess is that the poll failed to sample AA population. I heard that many AA are cell phone only users.

Interestingly in all AA heavy states, Obama outperformed by large margin. (VA, GA, SC).

So I'm quite confident of NC going blue, and positive about GA, too.

____________________

saywhat90:

didnt ap yahoo have this race a +1 last week

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saywhat90:

look at it this way if drudge truly thought that there would major change in zogby he would have simply repirted the full national of the poll. not a good sign when you are nitpicking the one day results. beside how accurate is zogby really and there party id is atrocious

____________________

DTM:

@asquared

Right. The point being made by some at 538 is that if the entire Thursday/Friday Zogby sample had been M+1, it is unlikely the three-day average would remain the same unless he had a similar M+1 on Monday/Tuesday. But that seems unlikely, since Obama's margin increase the day that sample rolled on. And since Drudge referred only to the poll being M+1 in Friday polling, the explanation could be that taken together, the entire Thursday/Friday sample was not M+1, but rather something very similar to the Monday/Tuesday sample.

But I was raising a different point, which was that there shouldn't even be a reportable number for Friday exclusive of Thursday, unless Zogby actually weights his Friday sample independently as well as in conjunction with his Thursday sample. And if he is actually going to report unweighted numbers for Friday--well, that is really really silly. Inexcusably so.

____________________

asquared:

DTM:

We'll have to see what Zogby's actual verbiage is. This may have beed an "exclusive" Drudge quote nota report by Zogby, after all, it did change after it was first posted so someone was uncomfortable with how it was presented meaning it probably wasn't a copy of what Zogby's actual posting will be.

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radmod:

Well, just for my wife (who's away right now) I watched Rachel Maddow and became more scared, especially in regards to the youth vote apparently not showing up for early voting.

However, start with the Kerry states and add VA, IA and NM. That gives Obama 277. Now subtract PA (giving NC, OH, and FL to McCain) that drops Obama down to 256. Obama still wins with CO and NV with a total of 270.

____________________

DTM:

@asquared

Absolutely--right now I am just raising some questions about what Drudge reported. We'll see in a bit what Zogby actually says.

____________________

CaliforniaIndie:

Anyone got word on Tinklenberg/Bachmann? New numbers?

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

LOL

More fake news from Drudge. He even says "the three day average holds steady"

That means Zogby has Obama +7.

Good night and good luck!

____________________

Obama's Pitbull:

EVERYONE QUIT FREAKING OUT ABOUT THE YOUTH VOTE IN FLORIDA!!! THE LINES ARE BEYOND PACKED EVERYDAY HERE IN MIAMI SINCE 0CTOBER 20TH... RELAX

____________________

political_junki:

Funny if boom was still on the forum, by now god only knows what would have been the subject of the discussion :)

____________________

mirrorball:

AP story on voter turnout. Everyone quoted agrees it will be higher than 2004. Only question is, how high.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=6157773

____________________

saywhat90:

if its still +7 then that number is meanigless. especially since this is probably not the first time mccain has polled better obama in these polls. the overall lead is still obama. yeah he can still lose but the odds hold in his favor. and some polling says that the joe the plumber socialist narrative isnt holding water. i mean didnt they say the polls would tighten before jt plumber appeared on the scene.

____________________

mirrorball:

@CaliforniaIndie: Last two polls had Tinklenberg up by 2 or 3 points, but I don't think any new numbers have been out in about a week.

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sandman:

Not good news for Obama

AP: Obama aunt from Kenya living in US illegally


By EILEEN SULLIVAN and ELLIOT SPAGAT, Associated Press Writers Eileen Sullivan And Elliot Spagat, Associated Press Writers – 23 mins ago


WASHINGTON – Barack Obama's aunt, a Kenyan woman who has been quietly living in public housing in Boston, is in the United States illegally after an immigration judge rejected her request for asylum four years ago, The Associated Press has learned.

Zeituni Onyango, 56, referred to as "Aunti Zeituni" in Obama's memoir, was instructed to leave the United States by a U.S. immigration judge who denied her asylum request, a person familiar with the matter told the AP late Friday. This person spoke on condition of anonymity because no one was authorized to discuss Onyango's case.

Information about the deportation case was disclosed and confirmed by two separate sources, one of them a federal law enforcment official. The information they made available is known to officials in the federal government, but the AP could not establish whether anyone at a political level in the Bush administration or in the McCain campaign had been involved in its release.

Onyango's refusal to leave the country would represent an administrative, non-criminal violation of U.S. immigration law, meaning such cases are handled outside the criminal court system. Estimates vary, but many experts believe there are more than 10 million such immigrants in the United States.

The AP could not reach Onyango immediately for comment. No one answered the telephone number listed in her name late Friday. It was unclear why her request for asylum was rejected in 2004.

Onyango is not a relative whom Obama has discussed in campaign appearances and, unlike Obama's father and grandmother, is not someone who has been part of the public discussion about his personal life.

A spokeswoman for U.S. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement, Kelly Nantel, said the government does not comment on an individual's citizenship status or immigration case.

Onyango's case — coming to light just days before the presidential election — led to an unusual nationwide directive within Immigrations and Customs Enforcement requiring any deportations prior to Tuesday's election to be approved at least at the level of ICE regional directors, the U.S. law enforcement official told the AP.

The unusual directive suggests that the Bush administration is sensitive to the political implications of Onyango's case coming to light so close to the election.

Kenya is in eastern Africa between Somalia and Tanzania. The country has been fractured in violence in recent years, including a period of two months of bloodshed after December 2007 that killed 1,500 people.

The disclosure about Onyango came just one day after Obama's presidential campaign confirmed to the Times of London that Onyango, who has lived quietly in public housing in South Boston for five years, was Obama's half aunt on his father's side.

It was not immediately clear how Onyango might have qualified for public housing with a standing deportation order.

____________________

radmod:

Well, one of the things about youth vote and voting early is simple logic. Aren't the youths of America more likely to vote on the weekend and not during school days? Also, from what I've seen a lot of the youth vote may be out there making sure that people are voting.

As to long lines, it scares me a bit. In the primary this year, my wife and I, because of our schedules, had to go back three times. This year we will be there at 6AM and have completely cleared our schedules.

Part of the problem in the primary was actually because of a single chatty old lady who was checking IDs. My wife got stuck in her line and it took two hours. I, OTH, walked straight up and voted without having to wait at all.

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political_junki:

sandman:
What are? Boom reincarnated? this is a idiotic post.
it doesnt affect obama eitherway what so ever.
if somebody is stupid enough to get affected by this, isnt voting for Obama already

____________________

Obama's Pitbull:

I am a 23 year old African American, i voted early last Saturday and waited 4 HOURS!!!!! I took my best friend to vote the other day (who is 22) and he wanted to leave when he saw the line. Lots of young voters in the lines, but many who came, seen the line and drove off. I did the same thing the whole first week. My point is that Barack Obama knew this was coming thats why he told everyone to vote early. Imagine if this would have happened on election day like in Ohio in 2004. VOTER INTIMIDATION IS THIS EASIEST TRICK IN THE BOOK. Relax early voting ends Sunday AND THE ELECTION IS TUESDAY. TRUST ME :)

____________________

DTM:

I think a lot of people misunderstand what to look for when it comes to partisan and demographic percentages in early voting. At a minimum, you need to start with a baseline of what happened in prior years, and see if there are relative improvements. Moreover, absolute changes in share are not what matters, because if you increase the absolute share of one favorable group enough, it could make increasing the absolute share of another favorable group harder (e.g., if say Obama was adding a lot more older black people to the early vote pool, it would be harder for younger people to increase their share of the early vote pool). Rather, you really want to look at the total share of your favorable groups together versus the total share of the other candidate's favorable groups together, and see if that balance is shifting in your favor.

____________________

sandman:

PJ,

Isn't is Obama who preaches how we all have to take care of each other? How we have to take care over our brother? You would know his actual quote better than I. It would seem in this case, charity has not begun at home. How is this different than a politician who preaches family values but then is caught with some prostitute? Is there not an element of hypocrisy here? I seem to remember reading a lot about Cindy McCains estranged half sister. Surely the media will want to be even handed. You know, the issues that REALLY matter. And sorry, I don't enage in epithets and smears. You won't be getting me censored as you have others.

____________________

common sense:

Good Lord : you people need to get a life. Who cares what " "Drudge" reports. If you think for a minute that Zogby is going to swing eight points in one day you are nuts. Yes, there will be tightening in the Zogby poll tomorrow. Zogby is an idiot pollster.
Polls do not dictate how the election will resolve. People do. Go out and vote.

____________________

DPartridge:

radmod:

NC is not a completely open primary.

There were at least 2 million Democrats that didn't vote for Obama in the primary in North Carolina (of course most of them didn't vote, hence they didn't have to declare a preference) ... and that doesn't factor in any of the independents who did vote in the Dem primary... To assume that all of the Dem's would vote Democratic is unrealistic... and thats what it would take for the 70.17% to hold true...

Even if the Dem and Repub %'s were equal in cross-over vote, the Dem's hold a sizeable registration advantage that would send more actual voters to McCain. ;-)

Another factor, this one clearly in favor of Obama is the number of registrations for the Democratic Party in NC since the primary. The Dems hold a 170,000 gain over the repubs registration, and I would hold that most of the new 120,000 unaffiliated were probably registered by the Obama/Acorn machine as well. It can be presumed that the majority of these voters didn't register for just the sake of registering... then again, maybe they just wanted that pack of cigarettes that badly. :-)

____________________

BlueInTexas:

Intimidation is what I'm afraid is gonna happen. We've already seen the nonsense out in Pennsylvania.

Early voting has ended already in Texas which will probably stay red :(. Though here (South Texas) will go blue - too bad we don't have a split EV here. Ugh.

While Zogby doesn't do much to me - I just want this whole thing to END! I thought the process was too short from the conventions ... heck with that. TOO LONG!!

MANTRA TIME!

"Just 4 more days, just 4 more days..."

____________________

BlueInTexas:

Intimidation is what I'm afraid is gonna happen. We've already seen the nonsense out in Pennsylvania.

Early voting has ended already in Texas which will probably stay red :(. Though here (South Texas) will go blue - too bad we don't have a split EV here. Ugh.

While Zogby doesn't do much to me - I just want this whole thing to END! I thought the process was too short from the conventions ... heck with that. TOO LONG!!

MANTRA TIME!

"Just 4 more days, just 4 more days..."

____________________

flamelpa:

For what it's worth (FWIW):

on CBS sister station, Kcal9, in Los Angeles, they played an interview with Zogby (such self-promotion!) and he indicated that at least at time of Powell endorsement Zogby thought Obama would win. I could not find a video link yet to that interview.

____________________

Obama's Pitbull:

SANDMAN= BOOMSHAK

SAME CUT AND PASTE CRAP AND SAME TALKING POINTS.remember he start his posts off with:

Not good news for Obama

____________________

orange24:

Wow, can't leave this website for a minute! Maybe it's just me, but Ithink the Zogby number is actually a good thing. First, it's crap, as those of us that watch these things by the minute know. Second, isn't Zogby a 3 day roller? If so, this bogus McCain number is going to stay on there right through Tuesday making the Zogby number really close right through the election. Finally, that's a good thing so that nobody takes anything for granted. The closer us Obama-junkies think it is, the better. Remember Gore. Remember Kerry. Don't sit on anything. GET OUT THE VOTE.

____________________

political_junki:

sandman:
We dont know any thing about their relationship. Easiest thing is to judge, but we have no insight into what has been between them.
My parents do have an OK income, my income is much more than them but they would not take a dime from me. Point : We know nothing about their relationship.

"I seem to remember reading a lot about Cindy McCains estranged half sister. Surely the media will want to be even handed. "

Talking about her sister didnt take more than a couple of days, you were not on the forum back then, I said that was stupid too.

"You won't be getting me censored as you have others."

Get a life dude, I am just a poster here not a moderateor, if any body has been banned "not censored" has been because of his own foolish behavior

____________________

Obama's Pitbull:

Trust me, I think I Obama Campaign has everything covered. Also its only like 15 polling in Miami for Early voting, but 300 on Electiion Day.

____________________

vmval1:

Hello Boom er.. I mean Sandman.

Good to have you back. Let's keep it civil this time. :)

____________________

sandman:

Obama's Pitbull,

You had best not make false accusations. I am registered with this site the same as everyone else. Do you need to smear because I do not agree with the majority here? I did not realize this was an offense. Are you kicking me off the plane too? : ) Peace. For what it's worth, I think the Zogby stuff is nonsense. I also think it's fair to point out hypocrisy when I see it. But you, sir or madam, have out and out lied. Not nice.

____________________

BlueInTexas:

@ Sandman:

So, you're saying Obama should help his aunt stay in this country? As much as I'm sure he'd like to; the second he tried that, every anti-Obamaite would scream 'favoritism'.

Nice try, though.

____________________

BlueInTexas:

@ Sandman:

So, you're saying Obama should help his aunt stay in this country? As much as I'm sure he'd like to; the second he tried that, every anti-Obamaite would scream 'favoritism'.

Nice try, though.

____________________

political_junki:

I guess Zogby's site will crash again tonight right at 1am... Best way to get the write u pis grom Reuters

____________________

common sense:

To all folks: Go to the Drudge Report site. That said - please remember that Drudge makes his living like all other GOP leeches (e.g. Limbaugh, Hannity, Buchanan(s), Coulter and Rove). There is no surge of support for McCain/Palin. The only thing that can save them now is apathy among people who think that the election is in the bag. God help us if Palin becomes VP.

____________________

political_junki:

Have you noticed Zogby has changed his first page from graphics to full text so he can support a higher voule of traffic, anticipating volume of visitors tonight.
Professional Hack!

____________________

DTM:

@sandman

I have lots of aunts. I find it hard to imagine holding me, and me alone, personally responsible for their well-being. For one thing, most of them have children of their own, so if there was an issue at all my cousins would be the first people they would turn to. For another, I can't think of an aunt of mine who would be thrilled to be receiving charity from me.

So, I think it is pretty obvious this is a typical case of feigned outrage, because it just isn't an American cultural norm that it reflects poorly on an individual if he isn't providing charity to relations like aunts, uncles, cousins, and so forth. And as for the apparent immigration violation, if having distant relatives in some sort of legal trouble was a disqualifier for President, history would look very different.

____________________

sandman:

Blue,

Not saying that at all. What I am saying is that Obama has spent a great amount preaching about how we have to help others. Given his success, it seems he could have done more to help his very own family. No crime, but it does undercut one's message. We won't get into the whole charity thing (or lack thereof) or the fact that the women who work on his senatorial staff have not been paid equally to their male counterparts.

____________________

radmod:

sandman: "Isn't is Obama who preaches how we all have to take care of each other?"

No, that would be some whack-job preacher. Though I think Obama does follow him. Crap, what's his name? Hmm ...


Oh, yeah, that's right. Some dude named Jesus.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Obama's dad's half sister? LOL is this the smoking gun the GOP was hoping for?:)

____________________

BlueInTexas:

DTM:

Amen. Even that whole bit about Obama's drug use ::rolls eyes:: sorry Repubs, you elected a coke user first! XD

____________________

BlueInTexas:

DTM:

Amen. Even that whole bit about Obama's drug use ::rolls eyes:: sorry Repubs, you elected a coke user first! XD

____________________

NW Patrick:

Zogby +5 Obama. WHO CARES:)

____________________

asquared:

Zogby

O+5

____________________

sunnymi:

Despite all the drama Zogby generates with the help of Drudge his numbers are no different from those of other pollsters.

The following holds true in his polls as well:
McCain's ceiling is 45-46
Obama's floor is 47-48

The highest McCain polled in his 3-day tracker is 45.3% and the lowest Obama polled is 47.1%.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Could the trolls please SAVE IT on Obama helping his aunt / long lost brother in Kenya, etc? Your candidate left his wife after she was crippled in a car accident. Not only left her, BUT CHEATED ON HER with Cindy. So save your righteousness. Jesus.

____________________

saywhat90:

ummm i am very suspicious of zogby. especially when he says

"If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."

I mean it sounds like he hoping that this happens so he can get rid of baracks lead all together.

____________________

RoyEgan:

Spent the week in Nev.(Vegas area) working door to door. Targeted inds. & soft repubs. I gotta say, in 5 days time I got maybe a dozen solid Mc supporters. That's w/ maybe 80 houses a day. I believe that is one red state going blue. We were hearing the same thing from our counterparts up north. Get out there and do something! Phone banks are everywhere!

____________________

liz from NJ:

sandman,

Obama's aunt story is a non issue. If we are starting to go after the relatives, oh, boy, don't we already have juicy stories from McCain and Palin.

Can you imagine what Rush Limbaugh would be mouthing off if it was Obama who cheateated on his crippled wife who loyally waited for him while he was in Vietnam with a young, pretty and rich heiress?

Can you imagine what all the family value fundamentalists would be fulminating against if it was Obama's teenage daughter who got pregnant?

How about Palin's husband who once belonged to the Alaska Independence party - the first dude who sits on Palin's government meetings and has official government related stuff copied to him via email?

Should I go on?

Obama very wisely and honorably put a gag order on his team regarding Palin's pregnant daughter.

Leave relatives and family members out!

(By the way, I don't think Palin will emerge as a national repub ticket figure: she will not be able to survive the in-party attack dogs during the primary season - because she has so much dirts that can be brought to the broad sunlight)

____________________

bmrKY:

@ Sandman

Joe Klein got kicked off of McCain's plane because he asked McCain a question that he didn't like regarding Iran. Did you and the rest of your friends call McCain out for trying to censor a dissenting voice? If not, then you have no room to criticize what Obama did. It's his plane, he gets to decide who travels on it just like McCain does.

____________________

KMartDad08:

Zogby's narrative says: "If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."

The results he posts on Sunday morning will include 1/2 of Friday (Halloween) and 1/2 of Saturday. Obama always polls more poorly on the weekends, so just brace yourself. Zogby is setting us up for a tie. Of course, this is the same guy who said we'd be inaugurating President Kerry four years ago.

____________________

hou04:

This Drudge/Zogby thing tonight should tell you something about Zogby...

Zogby lets Drudge use his cooked poll and his quote, verbatim, on his tabloid website.. even before Zogby officially releases the poll.

I guess, in reality, this is a Drudge/Zogby tracking poll... Forget about Reuters/C-Span

____________________

AdamSC:


Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

____________________

DTM:

On Zogby:

Well that settles that--no particular strangeness, just a good day for McCain and a lot of hype courtesy of Drudge.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

Hey boomshak, err sandman. Is it really wise to post in the exact same format that you formerly used before being banned.

You do know that Mark can tell where you are posting from by your IP address right? Even if you've refreshed your DHCP lease from your ISP they keep a table of MAC addresses that they can compare it against. That means that they can tell if it really is the same person posting under a different name and then he can notify your ISP who will shut you down permanently?

____________________

sandman:

Liz,

Obama never had to raise these issues directly. It was done for him by the press. Repeatedly. I agree these types of issues have zero bearing on how well someone will serve but if they are raised on one side then they should be raised on the other. But don't worry, it never happened in this election cycle and won't happen now. As you have commented, I don't believe McCain has claimed sainthood. In fact he has done the opposite. I just hope that Obama will spare the preaching on how we are to behave unless he has behaved in the fashion in which he preaches. Again remember, all of the issues you mentioned got a lot of ink. It's toxic because after he's elected you will find those who will want to lower and subjecte Obama to the same nonsense. When do we break the cycle ?

____________________

political_junki:

bmrKY and all:
Lets ignore sandman. Remember how much nonsense boom caused here with non-related topics. I have a feeling it is the same with him and unjustified accusations and Drudge/redstate.com bull**** copy/pasted material...

____________________

political_junki:

Liz,
OneAngryDwarf,

Lets ignore sandman. Remember how much nonsense boom caused here with non-related topics. I have a feeling it is the same with him and unjustified accusations and Drudge/redstate.com bull**** copy/pasted material...

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

It's funny because you would expect a pollster to the first guy to tell you not to get excited over a single days results until it can be confirmed over a larger period of time. Zogby on the other hand is eager.

____________________

sandman:

@Dwarf,

You allege something untrue otherwise known as a lie. Mark has my name and phone number. I would welcome a call as I am a real person. So you can keep your threats to yourself but thanks for your concern. Do my ideas threaten you that much?

@Bmr, both are wrong in their actions and I say this even though Klein and Dowd are opinion writers as opposed to hard news reporters. Such actions by both M and O are small and petty and serve to degrade any effort to elevate the process. But witness the reaction here because I do not fall into lockstep. You guys need to relax. You're going to get all you wish for on Tuesday. I would hope that doesn't include the wish or ability to censor those who have ideas different from yours provided they are shared in a constructive way.

____________________

common sense:

Dear Mark Blumenthal : Sandman is the same as BOOM. Personally I do not care. He provides a foil for our obviously more clever liberal posts. But without him it does not seem the same. If he promises to control his potty mouth will you let him back in? If he misbehaves we LIBS promise to go to NC and make him drive a hybrid.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@Pro-America_Anti-America

Yeah Zogby is a clown. Like the vegas lounge act of polling. He might have been a legitimate pollster once but now he has sold out and is playing to aging white crowds of fans nostalgic for the good old days.

Picture in your mind fat Zogby in a jumpsuit.

____________________

political_junki:

My guess is that after this election cycle Zogby will lose all his credibility.
Zogby manipulates the numbers to create the hype by intention. Last night his website crashed at 1am so today he had his first page all in text in anticipation of high number of visitors he will get after the Drudge debacle.
I wouldnt be surprised if ZOGBY changes his number the last day to something like average of Gallup and Rassmussen, so he can later claim he had it right the night before the election.

____________________

Obama's Pitbull:

Zogby ad Ras is Sean Hannity best guests on his show, Ras shows him the numbers too

____________________

Pat:

@sandman/boomshak

I feel sorry for the woman. And nobody cares about this story. This has nothing to do with Obama. If republicans try to make a big deal out of this, Obama will get more votes because it really crosses the line.

____________________

KMartDad08:

@Sandman

"Obama Aunt from Kenya Living in US Illegally"

OMG! Now all of us who cast our ballots early for Obama will really regret it, won't we?

Heck, Joe the Plumber is McCain's hero, and he doesn't pay his taxes. Surely Obama's aunt will get a pass from McCain.

____________________

Pat:

@political_junki:

I agree. The last time we will see this type of crazy margin out of Zogby will be tonight. He will try to match Gallup 2 days before election to claim accuracy. He is a joke.

____________________

KMartDad08:

New Drudge Headline:
"Obama Cousin Has Library Fines"

Not really. But that would be just as damaging as this crap about his aunt.

____________________

political_junki:

This is from PPP, dead even in Montana:
-------------------------------------------------
Montana
On the first round of calls for our Montana poll something happened I've never seen before: the candidates were literally dead even on the raw counts.

In most states that would mean the Democrat is well ahead, because we usually have to weight our samples to bring up the black population. But I don't think that's an issue in Montana!

So basically that means the leader, at least based on this first round of calls, would hinge on what's bigger: the gender gap between the candidates or the age gap. We almost always have to weight our polls to make them more male: women are just more likely to answer the phone. That weighting benefits Republicans. But we usually also have to adjust our samples to make them younger, bringing up the 30 and under crowd and decreasing the share of senior citizens. That helps Democrats.

We'll be making callbacks throughout the weekend but the bottom line is that the state is really close.

____________________

liz from NJ:

sandman,

O.K. So, we can agree that the election should focus on the issue. Fine.

If anything, I thought it was a lopesided Republican campaign strategy to focus on bogus character issues. I believe the majority of the voters agree with this assessment based on all the poll results we are seeing.

in fact, I believe McCain's negative campaign strategy backfired, and is going to leave a permanent mark on his honor and integrity. it really is a trategy that s man of lifetime honor is reduced thus by the desperate attempt to do whatever it takes to take advantage of his last chance.

By the way, I don't think Obama is a saint. God know, nobody is perfect, and I have a few skeletons also.

What Obama is, is that he is very smart. He was smart enough not to respond to ugly personal attacks with ugly personal counter attack. Yes, Obama did engage in negative campaign, but he did it so smartly that voters were more or less led to believe that his campaign was much less negative. That's political acumen.

What Obama did right was that even when he was engaged in a negative campaign, it was an issue based negative campaign, not accusing the opponent of "palling around with the terrorists". that kind of ugly and stupid negative attacks end up giving the impression to the voters that McCain thinks the common voters are stupid. It's an insult.

while I am at it, as a mother, I have something else to say about Palin, who I really dislike anyway as a politician. Still, I can be objective enough to defend Palin when a friend of mine criticized that she has her younger daughter on a campaign trail rather than have her go to school, etc. Well, that's not what I would have done, but I can see her side. being part of that whole process would be a wonderful education for a yough daughter even if she has to repeat a grade. So, there.

However, what I really despise and can't stand is the sight of her parading her handicapped infant son in all of her rallies. She enters the rally proudly carrying that infant, shows him around, and hands him to a care giver. She is using her handicapped child as a campaign rally prop.

I find this really despicable, and really tells me a lot about this woman.

I read an interview where she goes on and on and on how she is a protective mother, and he really hurt her when the media discussed her pregnant daughter. Yet, she is pimping her children all the time as a campain prop!

This alone really makes me wonder what kind of exploitative, manipulative, and opportunistic person she it!

____________________

sandman:

Pat et al,

I suppose it makes you all feel better to lable me Boomshack. So be it. The moderator knows better. As for the story of Aunti Zeituni, your beef is with AP, not me. You should inquire as to why they feel it it is newsworthy. My own opinion is that the story, per se, is NOT newsworthy except that it flies in the face of the Obama narrative about caring for others, his words not mine. By the way, do you guys ever step back and look at what you post and the tenor of such? As I said, on Tuesday, Obama will become president elect and carry the responsibility of that office going forward. You all would do better to consider the tenor of your comments and live up to your self-professed views of being more clever and TOLERANT than conservatives. Goodness ! Peace.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@political_junkie

Where did that info come from? I'm on the PPP site and I don't see it posted.

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political_junki:

@OneAngryDwarf:
It is in the Tom Jensen's blog:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

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mirrorball:

More evidence Rick Davis is smoking something (and I'd like a sample):

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/241645.php

"Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn't have the votes to win."

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OneAngryDwarf:

@political_junkie

Thanks!

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mirrorball:

oh, and according to Politico, Mason-Dixon's last batch of polling will be out Sunday and will cover Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina.

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political_junki:

mirrorball:
I have to admit I am baffled though, no matter how confident Obama camp is, I think they should have had a stop or two in PA.
My only, ONLY, concern in this election is PA specially since there is no early voting there...

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political_junki:

@OneAngryDwarf:

Any time Sir!

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OneAngryDwarf:

@mirrorball

Yeah I just don't know what is going on over at the McCain campaign anymore. This morning Davis says that McCain is in a "dead heat" in IA, and now this stuff.

They either know something that no one else in America knows or they are spinning like a top. Even team Obama seems confident in the numbers and is throwing its weight around both monitarily and with its ground game.

I wonder what Davis is trying to accomplish with how he is releasing this information. Trying to lure Obama into a states that aren't in play while focusing his resources in states that are? Like I said I just don't get it and unless ALL of the data that we are seeing is wrong, I'm not sure what they are looking at.

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sandman:

@Liz,

There is little of what you wrote that I would disagree with. My big bugaboo is personal responsibility and I hope this is something Obama will champion. I'm all for helping people but it seems to me sometimes we are a nation of victims. That seems a dead end to me. And you're right, Obama IS smart.

The scary thing to me is that after all the months of this campaign, the largest most serious issue was never touched on: the approaching tidal wave of entitlement obligations which we can never meet. I read an estimation that the combined entitlements would require us to borrow 322 TRILLION now and invest it at 3% to make the various system solvent. This was in Barrons two weeks ago. In my opinion there should have been one whole debate devoted to this. How will we solve this issue. Talk about the press being derelict in its duty. I yearn for some intelligent discourse from a conservative politician. It would make the whole system better if there were intelligent ideas to rub together from the left and right. I hope this is what Obama believes. It seems to be. Tearing down Obama at this point makes no sense as he is going to be our president. For some of us, it will be comforting if he governs a bit more toward the center than some of this more strident supporters. Hopefully for the good of the country he will. But that entitlement issue is going to bear down on us no matter what and it will make the current financial mess look like a walk in the park.

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mirrorball:

I understand why Davis says some of the things he does. You have to keep a positive front until the end.

I'd love to dig up statements by previous campaigns this late in the game to see how they stack up to the polling data and/or the final outcome, just to see how badly aides were spinning things.

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DTM:

Again, one doesn't even get to the issue of whether Obama's private conduct with respect to his aunt contradicts his statements with respect to public policy unless we know that his private conduct with respect to his aunt violated the relevant norms. And there is nothing as yet to show that.

And the very notion of such a connection is questionable anyway. Indeed, does McCain being a poor husband to his first wife disqualify him from talking about the importance of marriage? Because it better not--check his webpage.

But of course this isn't a serious point--it is just more feigned outrage. And one of the many reasons McCain is losing is that feigned outrage has been far too much the focus of his campaign.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@mirrorball

Yeah but you would think that he'd want to maintain a shred of credibility after the election. Spewing random stuff just doesn't build the old resume if you know what I mean.

It would be interesting to see what the Bob Dole campaign was doing at a similar point during that flawed campaign. Probably too hard to compare though since Dole just sort of shut it down in the last few weeks and he wasn't really carrying around a set of anvils like Palin, George Bush and the current economic problems.

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bmrKY:

@sandman

I never defended the actions of Obama (or McCain). I just don't think it's that major. I think that writers and commentators have the right to express their opinion, be it conservative, liberal or something else, and that the candidates shouldn't take it so personally. That said, while I think it's silly that he kicked them off the plane this late in the game, Obama did have them on his plane for the majority of the campaign (with only one "business day" left before the election). It's ultimately a candidates decision as to which members of the media travel with them; I don't agree with it, but it's their call. I don't think it's his intention to censor the press or abolish Fox News or Rush or anything like that. I don't think Rush and Fox have anything to worry about. I'm sure they'll keep running with their agendas win, lose or draw. Keep in mind, Obama has had a lot of prominent conservatives (and conservative newspapers) come out and endorse him; I don't think they view him as someone who will censor their opinions should he become elected. We still have a thing called freedom of the press. That said, most liberals will tune into liberal sources and most conservatives will tune into conservative sources. There will be some who check out both sides, but ultimately people will go with the source that identifies more with their ideological beliefs.

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political_junki:

@OneAngryDwarf:

This is priceless, from Dole campaign 1996:
-----------------------------------------------

Campaign Dirty Tricks: Fraudulent Attack "Polls"
The Wall Street Journal has confirmed allegations that Dole's campaign used phony "push" polls to smear the his opponents, and paid over $1 million to just one firm -- Campaign Tel -- that does this.

Worse yet, Bob Dole flat out lied about this when asked about this in February. When the Forbes campaign complained about these "polls", Dole said "We're not making any phone calls." But now his spokeswoman Christina Martin says the calls just "mirrored our television commercials" (which is also untrue) and Campaign Tel issued a statement saying, "The message of our calls has been consistent with the Dole campaign's paid advertising program." Dole financial reports confirm that they have paid Campaign Tel over $1 million already.

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fed:

538 just posted this on Zogby's poll
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/trick-or-treat.html

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liz from NJ:

sandman,

YES

In order for this to happen, we need to make sure our politicans do NOT get rewarded for resorting to baseless and shameless personal attacks. That's why makes the character based, innuendo driven attacks so despicable. We should never reward them to blindfold the voters in this manner and get a permission to stay away from the issues.

Regarding Obama's style, I believe he will govern from the center. He is smart and discplined. Thur far, I have not seen any indication that he has an ideological ax to grind. Under the circumstance, his own englightened self interest will govern him properly.

By the way, I am not a liberal idelogue either. However, as long as the Republican party is held hostage by the right wing fringe and produces an empty headed idealogue like Palin and mananage to reform a "former reformer" in their own image (right wing) I have no choice to automatically vote for the democratic side.

Palin is an ultimate Affirmative Action case, and I can't believe that it's the Republican party that is so shamelessly bending over to satify their wingnuts.

Give me a choice

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common sense:

Folks : As I have been saying all along. Boom was a GOP plant. He has now been replaced by another GOP plant - SANDMAN. Do you think it is a coincidence that SANDMAN has appeared after Boom was banned? How stupid are you? The point in this election is not that BO is African-American or that McCain is a war hero. It is about the the ultimate survival of our country. Honest working people need affordable health insurance. The GOP will not provide it. Yeah - I am a Democrat. If you think that is something to be ashamed of I am sorry.

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The Dude:

Very good analysis of the importance of early voting and the steep hill McSame has to climb.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Time%20for%20change/381

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PlayingItStraight:

Will be interesting to see how the rest of the polls look tomorrow. One thing I like about Zogby are the decimal results -- too bad the rest of it doesn't make as much sense. I truly wish that others published the decimal ... Rasmussen did in 2004. It would be nice to know if the moves from 51 - 47 to 52 - 46 represented a widening of 2 points Or if it was a move from 51.4 - 46.5 to 51.5 - 46.4 -- 0.2 points. While they may tend to balance out, this is not insignificant when calculating averages and generating trend analysis.

It is potentially significant if Obama has 49.6 in Virginia or 50.4 -- especially if you buy into the notion that Obama needs to be truly between 50 -52 to win the state. I'm not saying Wilder effect as we Virginians would call it, I'm saying people who are non-participants or are pushed to declare a candidate.

Good and aggressive campaigns (like Obama's) have a tendency to lead people to (a) say they are uncommitted and when pushed give the "popular" answer, (b) refuse to paticipate, (c) say they are undecided when in fact they favor the less popular option, or (d) simply misdeclare.

And on the Wilder effect, that result in 89 -- exit polls and preelection polls showing a Wilder landside rather than a 1/2% win -- probably had more too do with the Supreme Court's abortion decision that year than race. It was the rural and suburban pro-life vote that turned out heavily and made the race close (the same vote that turned out so heavily for Bush in Florida and Ohio in 2004). After all, Virginia had already crossed the rubicon when it elected him Lt. Governor in 1985.

Should there indeed be a Democratic tidal wave on Tuesday, which there may well be, the real problem will be developing a cohesive agenda. The "Blue Dogs" (not really as conservative as they pretend) are going to be in a much more difficult position.

While the country -- and the South is changing -- the Republican victories in 1994 had to do with four factors -- 93 tax increase, 94 battle over health care, AND probably the disappearance of the Southern Democratic blocks in both House and Senate resulting from a leadership that forgot that they had a different political imperative. When that imperative wasn't given at least tangential deference every now and then, those members disappeared. The fourth issue of significance was the Voting Rights Act forcing a concentration of minority voters in a fewer number of House districts. While this may have contributed to electing more minority members of the House of Representatives, it was a major contributor to making previously competitive districts virtually unwinable for Democrats.

That will not be an insignificant issue as the electoral map will shift again for 2012, particularly at the House level.

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DTM:

@sandman

I would also appreciate a serious conversation about entitlements, and unfortunately politicians of all sorts tend to avoid such conversations. That is because no one wants to be the first to tell the American people what they think should be done, since inevitably anything that could be done would take the form of either a tax increase or a benefit cut (or both).

But that means to make that conversation possible, it cannot be political poison for politicians to initiate an honest discussion of these issues. And it does not help politicians believe that is true if partisans are trying to attack them on issues as contrived as the well-being of their aunts.

So, yes, a hypothetical President Obama will have to be open to a frank discussion with those who did not support his election about issues such as entitlement. But at the same time, it will be necessary for those people to drop the "gotcha" political mindset and start focusing on actually being productive.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@political_junki

Hah! I had forgotten all about that. I guess some things never change. Obviously the "push-polling" techniques weren't perfected yet. Atwater was probably dead or dying at that point in time and Rove hadn't risen to the height of his evil powers. This is political chicanery in a gestational phase.

@fed

I read that earlier and Nate is right on. On a side note I accidentally clicked on the link a the top of Nate's post and was propelled against my will onto Drudges sludge pile of a website. Who designs that thing a mentally handicapped baboon? Stuff is just flung up there at random, I've seen first semester HTML students with more design sense than that.

Ugly on the presentation, ugly slant on the news. I guess it fits.

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sandman:

@Common sense,

Not that it will appease you but I was posting while boomshack was still here. If you are truly worried about the survival of our country see my above response to Liz. Obama will be president because intellectually, the right has run out of gas. However, the truth is that we'll all have to make due with less. Obama is too smart not to realize that. I expect we will be hearing a lot of reality from him in the first 100 days. Hopefully he will acknowledge the problems we face so that the country can begin to address them. Americans aren't into shared sacrifice, but that is what is required. By the way, you need to listen more to Obama, it's not about red or blue anymore. Right? With what's facing us, he's going to need everyone's help or we sink.

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Commander_King:

Will someone please ban Boomshak again?? He's going as "sandman" this time....

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Commander_King:

Will someone please ban Boomshak again?? He's going as "sandman" this time....

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PlayingItStraight:

@Sandman

I hear you on entitlements, but I'd like to humbly suggest that you need to check your numbers ... I believe that 322 Trillion is a nominal dollar amount. The net present value of SS, Medicare, etc is more on the order of $65 - $90 trillion. SS infinite horizon present value shortfall is on the order of $13 trillion. Medicare is somewhere between $50 and $65 trillion -- off the top of my head. Would have to check the number.

Perhaps the most troubling aspect of the Obama plan on taxes -- even for those who take a progressive view -- is refundability of income taxes against payroll taxes. For a smaller group it is imposing the SS taxes on income above the cap. Why?

Democrats have always defended SS as an insurance system -- even though the benefit schedule discriminates heavily in favor of lower and moderate income workers with its formula bendpoints. Since its supposed to be an insurance system, if you raise the cap it only makes sense to include additional contributions in a benefit formula -- unfortunately a donut hole approach makes this very impractical. Perhaps the biggest issue is the perception that some workers will essentially get their SS for nothing when everyone else had to pay for it.

Republicans may have had private accounts in the stock markets wrong, or they might have had it right, who knows over the long haul. BUT one thing they did have right was the concept of prefunding benefits. Even if those accounts were invested in Government TIPS with a few bells and whistles. The notion of private accounts was indirectly proposed by Franklin Roosevelt. In addition to promising that you would never pay more than 1% on your first 3000 of earnings, he also proposed allowing individuals to purchase from the government additional government guaranteed annuity stamps -- in essence a private account. Unfortunately, this concept never made its way into law.

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common sense:

just a question : What will all of us be doing on Nov.5th ? You guys are basically a bunch of nerds looking for a life. Obama is going to win. McCain is going to lose. It is that simple. The country needs to move forward. I have not seen a single comment on this site that would indicate that any of you morons care about anything other than your own pathetic opinions.

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gryff_the_canadian:

All this Zogby poll stuff looks like nonsense. OK maybe Drudge has some inside stuff about yesterday which he hypes because he is drudge.

But look at the Zogby data:

10/27: 49.0:O, 44.7:M
10/28: 49.1:O, 44.4:M

and the latest is:

10/31: 49.1:O, 44.1:M

Really its is damm steady with some noise over the last week.

I don't think Zogby wants to be known as a pollster who bends over when he is told to - so unless all the other polls tighten in the same way, he will keep it steady within his own LV profile ;-)

gryff :)

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Commander_King:

Will someone please ban Boomshak again?? He's going as "sandman" this time....

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

I wonder if we'll start to see a slew of prosecutions for the problems created by "The Rove Years?"

GOP IT Guy Deposed, Karl Rove might be next

It is interesting now that an Obama victory appears imminent that the DOJ is starting to ramp up investigation on some of the shady stuff that has gone on for the last eight years.

This particular on involves possible voter fraud in 2000 and 2004 but I've noticed that there are a lot more "legal matters" that are starting to work their way onto the politcal pages of the various news sources.

Is that just part of the natural cycle or are we seeing another sign that the poll numbers are so bad for the Republicans that even their appointments are moving back towards the center and away from the corruption of the last administration?

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Huskert-SD:

I'm a flaming liberal...but...ban Sandman because you think he's this other guy? I see no cursing, nothing really mean spirited. Just another point of view.

That's what's been wrong over the last 16 years. Too much partisanship, not enough discussion. As I said, I'm a flaming liberal, but beyond Obama's policies, it's his character that I really am attracted to. I truly believe he does want to change this type of partisanship in Washington.

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sandman:

@playing it straight

Here is the pertinent paragraph from the Barron's piece called Chump Change Oct. 20. And thanks for your excellent comments on the issue. It's a huge one and terribly ignored. It needs a paul revere to rouse the American people as to its seriousness. I'd like to know what you think of their math. Thanks.

Even Social Security's much-discussed funding gap is not our biggest problem. All Americans who are working or will be working owe more than $12 trillion to support the present and future beneficiaries of Social Security's old-age and disability pensions. But we have set ourselves up to owe more than $140 trillion for Medicare as it's currently legislated, to pay for most of the medical care for persons over 65 or disabled. Even bigger is the looming cost of Medicaid, which guards the health of indigents. No realistic estimate can be made for the future cost of Medicaid services because its benefits, under the control of state governments, are difficult to evaluate. But its combined costs to federal and state governments have been running 20% greater than Medicare in recent years, so add another $170 trillion.

These figures, derived from the fine print in federal reports, are present values: If the U.S. were able to borrow $322 trillion now and invest the money in private markets at 3% more than inflation, the three big programs would be fully funded forever. Of course, we cannot and will not borrow everything at once, so the eventual cost will be greater.

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Basil:

For what it's worth, sandman, I don't think you're boomshak, even though you say you're not boomshack.


____________________

PlayingItStraight:

@Sandman

I will pull up the Barron's article and look at the Math. The Medicare number seems a bit high. Medicare is difficult to project for many reasons -- there is significantly more "guess work" involved and over the long term the estimates are very sensitive to even the most minor adjustments in assumption values. Medicaid is a more difficult question, as your quote notes. The state presence raises its own issues. The other issue that looms is the fact that a large chunk of change spent on the uninsured goes to those who could qualify for medicaid and receive care from providers at lower cost than when its just run through the hospital emergency rooms. One way the health care establishment games the system in my view. One of the best parts of Romney's MA healthcare plan was to get these people signed up for medicaid if they were eligible.

While many on this site will deride Utah because of its political and religious leanings, everyone would do well to look at the health system there. It provides higher quality care at a lower price than any place in the country.

Sorry to all for being long winded, but the unfunded entitlement issue is critical. And candidly, Social Security is the EASY one to fix. It's a matter of benefit formulas and tax rates. Medicare has so many components it makes your head spin.

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SPARTICUS:

ATTN.- OBAMA SUPPORTERS!!!!!!!!

Stop worrying and start dialing:

Simply visit www.barackobama.com

Log in to their GOTV(get out the vote) section and click on the battleground state (VA,IN,NC,Ohio,PA) where you'd like to make calls this weekend. They will email you a list of people and you can start calling for real change. Good luck!!!!!!!

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cinnamonape:

Actually, the fact that Obama hasn't intervened in the INS case against his aunt in any untoward fashion...and hasn't done anything to encourage a relative who illegally entered the country to stay here suggests that he actually will be a breath of fresh air.

Look at all the Republicans who place unqualified relatives a cronies in positions of power and profit.

Apparently the view of Sandman and his Repug friends is that Christian charity" means illegally offering ones relatives opportunities that no one else might get a chance at.

Thanks for reminding us!

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teb:

It will be interesting to see whether these results understate Obama's votes in Southern states - Is there a reverse Bradly effect, whereby respondents are ashamed to admit that they will vote for a black?

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