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NC: Obama 48, McCain 45 (Civitas-10/18-20)

Topics: PHome

Civitas Institute/Tel Opinion Research (R)
10/18-20/08; 600 LV, 4.2%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

North Carolina
Obama 48, McCain 45, Barr 1
Sen: Hagan (D) 44, Dole (R-i) 41, Cole (L) 4
Gov: Perdue (D) 43, McCrory (R) 43, Munger (L) 2

 

Comments
chesirecat47:

3 NC polls in two days averaging out to a 4 point BHO lead! I don't believe it, but I'd say he's definitely got a slight edge at this point

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C.S.Strowbridge:

If Obama really has an advantage in North Carolina, then even if the national numbers continue to tighten at the pace they are, it won't be enough for McCain to win.

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BOOMFAIL:

That's what I'm talking about!!

Obama takes one of NC, VA, FL, MO, CO, OH, IN and it is OVER!

McShame needs ALL OF THEM. Not gonna happen.

And my God, Palin is on right now, and they are STILL talking about Joe the Plummer. Poor Joe didn't ask for all this media attention. Poor Joe who is getting picked on by Obama and the media. Blah Blah Blah. Why the f#ck did McShame bring him up 21 times and now he is trying to say Obama is picking on him. Pathetic.

And seeing the rethugs run AWAY from the tax cut that Obama will give normal people is funny ****. It's now welfare if normal Joe Six Pack gets lower taxes, but true Americans want to give the largest tax cuts to the ultra rich and corporations. OMG what a bunch of retards.

What is the definition of a hypocrite, BTW???

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BarackO'Clinton:

I have no problem with these NC polls "surging" towards Obama.

Come on McCain - I thought the race was tightening!

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Viperlord:

Looks like NC might just turn blue this year!

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johncoz:

This is a small sample, but both Ras and PPP ran larger samples with results of +3 and +7. McCain is definitely in trouble here.

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political_junki:

Have you seen the Gallup numbers? :)

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Can there be an "out-of-control orgy"?:

GALLUP Likely voters expanded

BHO 52
McLair 42

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MDB1974:

Gallup:
RV 11
LV Ex 10
LV Tr 7

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JerryTheAngel:

"Obama takes one of NC, VA, FL, MO, CO, OH, IN and it is OVER!"

If Obama takes NC or VA or FL or MO, it's over. He needs just one of them.

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alankeysisawesome:

I give up! The national #'s are tightening but in a few polls. I held out hope but now Gallop shows Obama plus 7 in a "traditional" voter model from 1964 - 2004. I don't think this year will be traditional in voter turnout:( DAMN. We should have elected Romney the Mormon guy.

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falcon79:

NC will turn blue in a few hours.
you heard it here first :)

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falcon79:

NC will turn blue once pollster updates.
you heard it here first :)

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ricbrig:

even divinding each advantage by 2 it still looks good

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Obama's up in this poll by 31 points among people who've already voted.

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axe2grind:

This poll is also good news for Kay Hagen, she leads "I'm never in NC" Elizabeth Dole 44-41.

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Word08:

My friends Gallup poll is out and it's not pretty for McShame. HA HA HA!!

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sunnymi:


Interesting points from this Poll:
* Obama is getting 88% of the Democrats voting for him. With the huge party ID advantage the Dems have in this state it means if Obama can get at least 80% of the Dems voting for him then the state is his in the electoral college.
* Obama has a 2:1 lead among early voters, 6-point lead among those who will definitely vote and this bodes very well for him
* Yet another poll showing McCain leading the 18-34 age group and Obama leads among voters over 40.

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JCK:

More confirmation of a small NC lead for Obama.

In the last month, only three polls (out of 17 total polls) have shown a McCain lead. One of those was an ARG poll.

No polls conducted in the last two weeks show a McCain lead (one Rasmussen poll shows a tied race).

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C.S.Strowbridge:

Wouldn't it be funny if North Carolina went Blue this year after the Republicans killed the bill to split North Carolina's EC votes?

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Working Class:

Greetings from the Great State of Nevada. Hello this is my first post so please go easy on me ;)

Obama can lose PA and still win. I seen some people debating if he loses PA or not.

He can win without PA he just has to win Virg., Col., NewM., and Nev.!

And I believe he'll win Nevada. I live in Las Vegas proper and the unions are stronger than the developers and even Wynn's money isn't cutting it. I'm out of work right now (believe it or not in this state) and all of my work buddies are for Obama. Usually it's pretty evenly split with Republicans and Democrats.

I believe Obama will win in Reno too of all places.

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BOOMFAIL:

Seems like Gallup will be on the rethugs ****list today. Can't wait to hear the spin how we should ignore Gallup now. Wasn't it just last week that Gallup was splattered everywhere including the sirens on Drudge as proof McShame was surging?? Where are the sirens today, My friends???

SPIN BABY SPIN

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rdw4potus:

Someone polled NC, but didn't include the Senate race? hmmm...well, I guess if I was a Republican partisan pollster, I might want to leave that one alone...

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alankeysisawesome:

We're ****ed!

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BOOMFAIL:

@alankeysisawesome:

"We're ****ed!"


That's my crazy mofo!!

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

With Las Vegas being killed in the housing market, that takes away a lot of clout for developers.

Nevada is definitely looking good. McCain doesn't have the resources that Obama does to run a nationwide campaign. He's stuck with the PA strategy.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

Looks like we are back to the beginning of the month where everyone was posting O 5-7 leads except Battleground which defied them all and had M+2. Almost like the last 3 weeks didnt even happen.

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alankeysisawesome:

I was being an idiot. I don't have a poll to give me hope accept that one in OH and FL. We are ****ed in so many states this is impossible. Oh well, Romney the Mormon in 2012 to save the country from the liberal socialists.

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bill kapra:

Interesting note from Politico. They've repolled Washoe County in Nevada 50-40 and Wake County, NC 52-43.

Both up for Obama since Oct. 9. Both considered bellwethers.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14785.html

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Nhoj:

working class according to politicos new poll washoe is up 10 points for obama but nevada is tied which doesnt make much sense to me.http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14785.html

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mrut:

Hi Working Class

Thank you for observations on the ground about NV. I haven't seen too many polls of the state recently.

NC is a nice surprise. I wish more states had early voting so that the inevitable snafus could be worked out without hamstringing all the voters on the single day of voting.

I am interested in what early voters (like carl in FL) are seeing and experiencing on the ground. Please report delays and problems, as well as turnout in your precinct.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Perhaps that means that McCain is still winning by a ridiculous margin in more rural Nevada counties and towns.

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political_junki:
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sunnymi:

Here is something for good laughs....

McCain - 189
Obama - 183
Toss-Up - 166

If you do not want to click on the link O'Reilly has NC and IN red, but OR, MI, WI, MN, NM, IA, PA and VA as toss-ups

http://www.foxnews.com/oreilly/winning-the-electoral-college/

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Viperlord:

O'Reilly is such a idiot it's not even funny.

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hou04:

FLORIDA (PPP)

Obama 48
McCain 47

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political_junki:

@sunnymi:
LOL. That is a good one :)
That guy cracks me up. I love watching Seinfeld but I have watched it so many times it gets boring sometimes, then I switch to FOX and watch Orielly factory for laughs...

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

That is a freaking joke. Fox doesn't even try to hide their insane bias anymore.

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sunnymi:

SUSA Kentucky Senate Race

Mitch McConnell and Bruce Lunsford in a dead heat with 48 a piece.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=b7cb88d3-c9ec-4134-8dc7-f6b2ded0be6e

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

JoeThePlumber is always telling people to get their razorblades ready but where is he now? where is he now? NC+3 and Gallups numbers surely ruined his days.

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Trosen:

Wow.. talk about denial.. That's some good Sh*t right there.

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Chester:

@ sunnymi:
McCain must be getting his "inside polling" about PA from Fox!

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sunnymi:
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JCE:

While I see there is a model for McCain to win if he flips PA, there isn't one that includes him losing NC. Guaranteed that Palin is sent to camp out there for 2-3 days in the next 2 weeks to see if the base will come out. My guess is it won't quite work.

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Trosen:

Wow.. I'd love to see McConnell tossed out on his a$$.

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Hi again,

Well I think the Washoe stats are right considering how well Obama seems to be doing in Reno. Reno has changed a lot since the last election. But Clark is still pretty evenly split out in the rings like Henderson and Summerlin and Boulder City. The big developers like Wynn and Caesars are pushing hard for McCain and I think that's having some Clark stats look split. But I think the unions are stronger and also the whole area is basically in a depression and McCain doesn't have a clue. I see Obama signs everywhere around here -I live in the Uni corridor and this place is mostly moderate working people and it's all Obama right now.

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political_junki:

@JCE:
Even if McCain shows Wright-Ads for the next week and half 24/7 on PA TV stations, PA wont flip. You heard it from me first :-)

Also:
Look at this video guys :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=243gXtXtEwc

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sunnymi:

This PPP poll of FL gives me hope for Obama.
The party ID advantage for the Dems shown in the latest registration statistics does not shown up in the poll (I am guessing there are several Dems that did not get called by this poll!)

Registration Statistics:
D 42%; R 36%; I 22%

This poll:
D 42%; R 42%; I 16%

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Thatcher:

@Chester - you beat me to it!

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Trosen:

Good crosstabs for Obama on that FL poll. It shows nearly dead even Party ID, but D's have at least a 5 or 6 point advantage in the state.

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OneAngryDwarf:

The big Looffah must not have consulted with Dick Morris recently.

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?promo_code=2A89-1

Two pin-heads of a feather flocking away from each other? Say what?

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NHBlue:

Let's not mistake alankeysisawesome above for the genuine article: alankeyesisawesome (keyes). The real one is so much more w e i r d

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sunnymi:

@political_junki, I think the electoral map by Bill O'Reilly and the other one by Dick Morris are the 2 ends of the funny spectrum. Both highly improbable and laughable :-)

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I can see that makes sense about AFL-CIO I get a phone book worth of materials from the on a weekly basis. My union boss calls me up constantly. LOL i tell him find me a job why don't ya.LOL

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political_junki:

The best part is based on national polls the little movement towards McSame that was going on for 4-5 days last week has been completely stopped if not reversed :)

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cinnamonape:

"* Yet another poll showing McCain leading the 18-34 age group and Obama leads among voters over 40."

Read Eric's Analysis post on the substantial differential between cell-phone only vs. land-line only young respondants. It's about a 30% difference in political affiliation b/w the two groups. Thus if a poll primarily is polling young land-line users they might actually respond at or above some samples of older voters.

I suspect that the reason for the differences could be
- cell-phone only voters are more mobile than land-liners (i.e. they may not be at home nearly as much)
-cell-phone only workers are more urban (rural residents might make calls from either work or home)
-cell-phone only voters live away from their parents
-cell-phone only voters are not stay-at-home moms
- cell-phone only voters live in collective households of peers (college students, young lower-income workers) that don't want to share the issues of "negotiating" phone bills
-cell-phone only are more "tech-savvy" and interested in technology

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OneAngryDwarf:

@sunnymi

Actually Dick's map has come back down to Earth recently. He used to have obama winning like 411 EV's or something stupid like that.

I think he is pushing the McCain comeback meme at this point. Too bad everyone knows he's an idiot hack with zero credibility outside the Fixed News pudit desk.

Guy makes Charles Krauthammer look like honest Abe Lincoln.

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Stonecreek:

The tracking polls are beginning to settle down: The split among RVs in BOTH the Gallup and the ABC-WaPo tracking polls is exactly 52-42. My guess is that if you had the RV numbers for Rasputin, theirs would be similar. It is only when Rasputin puts their company's Republican spin on the LV numbers that their poll appears to be tightening.

Here's where it looks like we are in realistic national numbers:

RV = 52-42
Traditional LV = 50-44
2008 LV Model = 51-43

Or thereabouts. Of course, this is only a parlor game since the only votes that count are the ones cast by the 538 Electors, which looks to be somewhere between 300 and 400 for Obama.

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political_junki:

@sunnymi
I love the way Dick Morris describes himself:"Political analyst extraordinaire DICK MORRIS". LOL.
When McSame suspended his campaign this guy wrote an article (If you serach Rassmussens website for Dick Morris you will find it) and said McSame IS GOING TO WIN THE ELECTION BECAUSE OF THIS SUSPENSION, and that MCCAIN GAMBLE SO SUSPEND HIS CAMPAIGN HAS OBAMA'S CAMP CONFUSED. THIS MOVE WILL BE KNOWN AS THE MOVE THAT WON MCCAIN THE ELECTION.
loool
That is some extraordinarily wrong prediction by the "Political analyst extraordinaire" :))

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OneAngryDwarf:

@political_junki

I saw a woman walking out of the library the other day with his book under her arm. She saw me laughing at her and ran away. I never had to say anything. He's like a guilty pleasure to the right.

Too stupid to be believed by anyone of intelligence and just crazy enough to fire up the morons who want to hate someone different than themselves.

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Stonecreek:

Dick Morris is the, shall we say, slightly unstable gentleman who hired prostitutes to suck his toes. That such people can make a living expressing their opinions is but one of the symptoms of an American economy which is rapidly becoming disfunctional.

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katocat:

@stonecreek

I think you have it backwards... he pays them to let HIM suck on THEIR toes.

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katocat:

mmmm streetwalker toes.

O well, to each his own.

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CTPonix4BHObama:

@Sunnymi

That O'reilly electoral map is insane...has iowa polled McCain ahead once since the election started? Also, when has Obama polled under 50 in Iowa?

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boomdoom:

Watch McShame love for PA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLVSURlFoQs

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