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Nevada/South Carolina Results Thread

Topics: 2008 , ABC , CBS , CNN , Exit Polls , MSNBC , The 2008 Race

MSNBC is starting to report entrance poll results for Nevada (which are now posted on their website for Democrats and Republicans-- CNN also has entrance poll results here, CBS also has the results for Dems and Reps). MSNBC correspondent Nora O'Donnell just characterized the results as follows:

O'Donnell: We can characterize the voting right now on the Democratic side as a significant lead in the initial preference poll for Hillary Clinton, with Barack Obama in second place. Now it is important to remember that there are nine caucus sites inside the casinos...that are not included in our entrance poll.

Andrea Mitchell: And those are the areas of concentration for Barack Obama

O'Donnell: ...and the Culinary Worker's Union.

How much those missing precincts might affect the result, I cannot say. Keep in mind also that the entrance poll measures initial preference. The actual results are based on the second round of voting after candidates who receive less than 15% of the vote in a caucus location move to a second choice.

Update (6:07pm): The South Carolina Republican exit poll tabulations will be available when the polls close (at the following links) from MSNBC, CNN and CBS.

Update II (1/20): According to the entrance poll analysis from ABC News, those nine-caucus sites inside the casino's had a negligible impact:

The entrance poll excluded the at-large caucuses held in nine Las Vegas casinos, making the results not fully representative of all caucus-goers. However, turnout at these nine caucuses amounted to only about 2 percent of total turnout statewide, so the noncoverage had minimal impact on the entrance poll results.

 

Comments
Mark Lindeman:

Interestingly, the first MSNBC Republican numbers I saw gave Ron Paul a significant margin over John McCain for second place, about 18 to 11.5. Let it not be said that pollster.com withheld that crucial information! The updated numbers are much closer (and with a total n of 813, which is not a simple random sample, this is pretty much for fun).

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joshua bradshaw:

hey i just looked and ron paul is beating john mccain accoring to cnn and abc

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Democrat:

The results for Dems:


Hillary: 50.73%
Obama: 45.15%
Edwards: 3.77%

:( I hope Hillary doesn't win the nomination.


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joshua bradshaw:

Yeehaww Hillary won.

I am so happy. I hope she wins the nomination. I have supported her from day one. I beileve she is the best prepared to lead the country and will be on of the best presidents this country has ever seen.

Oh and by the way it will be intersting to see if Ron Paul actually beats mccain and if he does if he will get any coverage for it probably not but still Hillary won


Hillary for President

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p_lukasiak:

I hope Hillary doesn't win the nomination.

well, while I'd prefer to see Edwards get it, right now Hillary looks well nigh inevitable. The problem for Obama is that he can only be in one place at a time, and Hillary has substantial leads in most of the big Super-Duper Tuesday states --leads that are going to be very hard for Obama to cut into. (I also think that Edwards has figured out that his only chance now is to get off of Hillary's case and on Obama's)

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Adam:

The notion that Hillary is inevitable is laughable. After today, she'll be ahead by 1-2 delegates to the convention. The big question is what, if any boost, will she receive in SC as a result of today? Barack is significantly ahead (+9) in SC, and SC also has 45 delegates to NV's 25...

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Adam:

... as for the Super Tuesday states, nationally she's only up about 8 points. Obama will have momentum having won SC, provided he does...

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RS:

Unfortunately, right now Clinton has the "Mo", and even if Obama wins SC, the Clintons will spin it as "an African-American winning a African-American-dominated primary." That will likely deflate any momentum for Obama heading into Feb 5, including California and NY.
The delegate count may be close, but momentum is critical.

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I'm thrilled that Clinton won. I was under the impression she was going to tank - but then all my information was coming through the national media filter (unlike NH, which I experienced for myself).

I wonder if there isn't a built in bias to the media coverage that makes it difficult for Obama to control expectations.

There appears to be a gender gap in terms of the perception of the candidates, with men generally ascribing more positive qualities to Obama than to Clinton. And men make up a wildly disproportionate share of our political media elite compared to the population that actually turns out to vote.

So is it perhaps inevitable that our chattering class' perceptions of Obama will be out of step with those of actual voters?

Is it demographic common sense that our opinion leaders would ascribe "hope," "optimism" and "leadership" to Obama, and "spin," "entitlement" and "arrogance" to Clinton - that they would perceive Obama as doing better than Clinton - only to be knocked on their collective fannies when the votes are counted?

Or is it, perhaps, time for a second glass of celebratory cabernet?

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Mark Lindeman:

OK, right now we have McCain about 31, Huckabee about 27.7, Romney about 16, Thompson about 14.6....

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AMG:

Clinton does have a bit of momentum right now given that the front pages have had her face on it with the title of "winner" twice to Obama's once, but SC might make things 2-2. Nationally, the race is very close (8 points). It's not a done deal by any stretch of the imagination...

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p_lukasiak:

There appears to be a gender gap in terms of the perception of the candidates, with men generally ascribing more positive qualities to Obama than to Clinton. And men make up a wildly disproportionate share of our political media elite compared to the population that actually turns out to vote.

the whole 'gender gap' thing is weird. I mean, men generally go for the more "agressive" candidate, and women the more "touchy-feely" one.... but in the Dem primary, the gender "roles" of the candidates are reversed, and men are voting for the man, and women for the woman.

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p_lukasiak:

well, Florida is going to be interesting...

I think we're about to see a major surge in "Washington is the problem" rhetoric... what with two governors and a mayor going against a long-term senator who is a media favorite, its probably the best way to puncture the McCain boomlet -- at this point, everyone in the GOP needs "anyone but McCain" to win in Florida...

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Daniel T.:

I don't agree with p_lukasiak at all. The real difference is not that Hillary is getting more women but that Obama is only splitting the men. Liberal men seems more inclined to support Hillary and I can't help but wonder if they don't feel enormous pressure to do so. I think that many males that identify themselves as feminists are hard pressed to vote against Hillary, because gender is at the core of their political identity.

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Peter S:

Would Hillary win her nomination without Bill being around? How can anyone want to have 24 years with two families running the country?

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Josie:

"How can anyone want to have 24 years with two families running the country?"

Well, I don't. But I'm not going to let the familial relationships of the people that have been in power for the past 20 years dictate my vote, either.

I happen to think that Hillary will make an excellent president - hopefully better than any we've had in quite a while. I'm not voting for a family, and I think that assuming that Hillary supporters are just voting to have Bill again is presumptive.

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RS:

...I think that assuming that Hillary supporters are just voting to have Bill again is presumptive.

Give me a break! ;-)
Seems to me like Hillary is largely running on a return to the 90s Clinton regime, and her supporters are mostly over 45 - people who have fond memories of the 90s. Younger folks would rather have nothing to do with the past (partisanship) and want to move on with Obama...

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