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NM: Obama 45, McCain 40 (AlbuqJournal-9/29-10/2)

Topics: PHome

Albuquerue Journal / Research & Polling
9/20 - 10/2/08; 659 RV, 3.8%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

New Mexico
Obama 45, McCain 40

 

Comments
falcon79:

NM for Obama!!!
kiss my a**, Republicans :P

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Hope Reborn:

"Among Hispanic voters, the poll found 62 percent favored Obama. McCain had the support of 17 percent of Hispanics and 21 percent were undecided."

That's a huge margin and likely to grow. If that stays the way it is, McCain can't win there.

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maddiekat:

Zogby Interactive even has Obama up by 4 % Nationally. The sky is falling McSlime.

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KipTin:

Well, I thought New Mexico was going for Obama, but the deal is not sealed yet because of large number of UNDECIDED according to this poll:

"Sanderoff noted that Republicans win big races in the state by wooing independents and bringing Democrats across the fence.

The poll found that 44 percent of independents supported Obama compared with 29 percent for McCain. Twenty-two percent of independents said they were undecided.

"For John McCain to win, he needs to get his half of the independent vote," Sanderoff said. "The jury is still out on whether his maverick message will prevail. The good news for McCain is 16 percent of Democrats are undecided: They evidently have some reservations about Obama."

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boskop:

@maddiecat

arent you a clever one!

have you considered how much muck you can rake out when you havent got your job anymore.

you'll still be oh so clever, but hungrier, unhappier, and frightened.

oh, and you have your little obama fella, but you cant take him to the bank.

careful what you wish for.

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maddiekat:

boskop

I am probably older then you. Bush is not the first US President I have watched ruin the US economy and Obama will not be the first i have watched fix it.

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Stuart:

Yeah, the high number of undecideds is not good for O. We need to lock those down.

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laguna_b:

@boskop

You seem to have missed the point that trolls you like have been in power and the huge deficits are all thiers...and now the economy follows...so why are you so sure that a real change will hurt things????

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marctx:

This is the first good poll for McCain. Obama's number is the only number that means anything. Only 45% is good for McCain.

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cinnamonape:

McCain has decided to hop over to Alburquerque from the resort he's staying at in Sedona to do a speech.

I think that the might think that NM is regainable.

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Trosen:

Good, let them pour some $$ into NM. Bill Richardson will not let NM turn red. No chance.

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faithhopelove:

This NM poll is the second in a row to show Obama up 5 points there, and the 8th in a row to show Obama with a lead of at least 2 points there. McCain's internal numbers must show him to be within striking distance in NM (single digits?), as he is visiting the state today.

The AJ poll was in the field before the VP debate, which numerous polls have shown was won by Biden. It shows a large number of undecideds, meaning leaners were not pushed. Obama manages a 5-point lead despite the fact that he has locked-up only 73% of Democrats in NM. Kerry won about 84% of NM Democrats in 2004. Obama simply needs to win over more of his Democratic base to secure a victory in NM; party loyalty alone may be enough for him to do so.

Today's Research 2000 tracker shows Obama up 17 points in the West, a region that includes NM.

If NM does tighten-up before election day, Obama's ground game there will give him an edge in GOTV efforts. Obama has 39 field offices there; McCain has 12. For an eye-witness description of the disparity in energy and organization between the 2 campaigns in 6 states, including NM, see:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html

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