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NV: 2010 Sen (Kos 5/31-6/1)

Topics: Nevada , poll

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
5/31-6/1/10; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
400 likely Republican primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

Nevada

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
34% Angle, 25% Lowden, 24% Tarkanian (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election
42% H. Reid (D), 38% Lowden (R), 2% Ashjian (T) (chart)
43% H. Reid (D), 39% Tarkanian (R), 2% Ashjian (T) (chart)
43% H. Reid (D), 37% Angle (R), 2% Ashjian (T) (chart)

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
48% Sandoval, 27% Gibbons, 6% Montandon (chart)

2010 Governor: General Election
52% R. Reid (D), 31% Gibbons (R) (chart)
51% Sandoval (R), 41% R. Reid (D) (chart)
43% R. Reid (D), 40% Montandon (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Harry Reid: 40 / 52 (chart)
Sue Lowden: 39 / 40
Danny Tarkanian: 40 / 38
Sharron Angle: 38 / 41
Scott Ashjian: 8 / 30
Jim Gibbons: 19 / 62 (chart)
Brian Sandoval: 47 / 32
Mike Montandon: 32 / 30
Rory Reid: 42 / 39
John Ensign: 17 / 64 (chart)
Barack Obama: 44 / 46 (chart)

 

Comments
twitter.com/strobe3:

Ruh-Oh. This matches up with the NV Sen Primary poll. But But its Kos Kooks. Whatever baggers

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progressivewisconsin:

Still makes me a little antsy that he's only pulling in a measly 42-43% of the vote. Doesn't exactly bode well for election day.

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JMSTiger:

It's a Kos poll and they have been terribly inaccurate in 2009 and 2010. That being said, Reid is back in the game. Problem for him is that once the GOP has its candidate, all their fire will be directed at him instead of at each other.

I have to agree with Stillow. Until I see a poll showing Reid polling above 43%, I still think he is a dead man walking.

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Stillow:

As I said i nthe other thread....even in this Kos poll Hairy cannot get above 45 percent, even among Kos's LV model. Reid has a statisitcal roadblock at 45 percent. Whoever the republican ends up being will win. Reid will be lucky to hit 45 percnet on election day....and I said in the other thread, the Sandoval Reid matchup won't even be close.

Srry libs, Hairy is out. We saw these similar numbers in the Christie / Corzine race where all year long polling showed Corzine had a barrier of 44 percent in all the polling. You just can't win with those numbers. Corzine did manage to eek it up to 45 on election day....but your not going to win iwth 45 percent unless a third party jumps in and grabs votes from those "other guy" voters.

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JMSTiger:

Republicans in Nevada should go with Tarkanian, but it appears that want to get the most reactionary person they can find and that is Angle. It could cost them the race in the end.

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pion:

1) The nice thing about these numbers is that they reflect the Suffolk poll almost exactly.

2) Reid's A/D numbers continue to improve while Lowden and Angle's A/D spread is quickly shrinking.

3) Still a large number of undecided voters; Nevadans want to take a good look at the GOP candidate although they appear to be disillusioned with Reid. At least, Reid's unpopularity hasn't reached the anyone-but-Reid stage or else there would be a much smaller number of undecided.

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jmartin4s:

I'm getting a little sick of these daily push polls kos is like the rasmussen for democrats. Stillow you still voting for Lowden???

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JMSTiger:

Reid will have to outspend the GOP nominee by about 5 to 1 and totally savage that person to pull this out. A 40/52 approval/disapproval rating in a Kos poll tells me that Harry will have to totally destroy his opponent to win. I am sure he will be happy to do just that.

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JMSTiger:

@ jmartin4s-

That is exactly what the Kos polls are. Kos and Rasmussen both are doing the same thing. Rasmussen is at least smart of enough to stop polling a week out before election day. Kos keeps polling and then they get egg on their face.

FINAL VIRGINIA KOS POLL: McDonnell +10% (actual- McDonnell +17.4%)
FINAL NEW JERSEY KOS POLL: Christie +1% (actual- Christie +4.1%)
FINAL MASSACHUSETTS KOS POLL: Brown and Coakley tied (actual- Brown +4.8%)

If you want to know where these races really stand, I say go with PPP. So far, in state-wide races, they have been very accurate:

FINAL VIRGINIA PPP POLL: McDonnell +14% (actual- McDonnell +17.4%)
FINAL NEW JERSEY PPP POLL: Christie +6% (actual- Christie +4.1%)
FINAL MASSACHUSETTS PPP POLL: Brown +5% (actual- Brown +4.8%)

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pion:

One more point about Reid's A/D numbers: the spread is exactly the same as in the Mason-Dixon poll at the end of May suggesting continued consistency between the live-interviewer polls.

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Xenobion:

A crazy KoS poll but even in their crazy party ID ways they have Angle as the weakest link and most likely to win the primary. Bad news bears if Republicans don't claim any major prisoners of healthcare.

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Paleo:

Speaking of Nevada, and final polls, Rass was off by 8 points as to Obama's margin in Nevada:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_mccain_vs_obama-252.html

Oops.

Which also could mean that there is a hidden vote in Nevada, possibly Hispanics and/or degreee of union turnout, that the polls don't detect.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Yep. This is just about right.

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ethano:

Looks like the Tea Party peaked about 8 months too soon.

Also, Reid has done a lot for renewable energy (solar) in NV. When transitioning off oil becomes the focus of the administration, the Teapublicans are going to have to side with Big Oil while the Gulf of Mexico is turned into a dead-zone from the BP disaster. And THAT should be fun to watch.

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pion:

@Paleo: May be worthwhile pointing out also that Suffolk was only off by only -2 in '08 in NV.

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Paleo:

Suffolk was the closest one on the PA-12 race. But they've been off the mark on other races.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"We saw these similar numbers in the Christie / Corzine race where all year long polling showed Corzine had a barrier of 44 percent in all the polling."

There are some differences, though, most notably the popularity of the republican in the NJ race. At this point last year, Christie was leading Corzine by 10.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/nj/new_jersey_governor_corzine_vs_christie-1051.html

1)Christie was regularly flirting with 50 at this point in the race.

2) Corzine did not lead any polls from January until October, and then only because a 3rd party jumped in.

3) Corzine favorables were at least 5 points lower than Reid's are here. Christie rarely had favorables less than +15. Here the republicans are lucky to get +2 and two of them are underwater.

Republicans are set to nominate a weak candidate against someone who knows how to maximize his opponent's negatives even though he too is unpopular.

This is why I think republican gains will not be as good as they'd like this year. They think that their being less popular than democrats doesn't matter.

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Field Marshal:

I have to agree with JMSTiger. Once the GOP primary is settled, you will see a temp bounce for whomever that candidate is against Reid as they capture the attention. Also expect the GOP to pour money into this race in order to get the media attention in Nov. on how they ousted the sitting majority leader, again.

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jmartin4s:

@JMS Tiger the final Massachusetts poll for rasmussen was Coakley+2, that Rasmussen poll was an exit poll. Learn your facts before you make a statement. Second, I was also was stating that both Rasmussen and Dailykos are polls that try to influence the narrative and very frankly I'm getting sick of it. I prefer accuracy something that both kos and ras do not provide. If you want accuracy look at PPP and SUSA

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Stillow:

That is right. Rei dis benefiting temporarily from a contested GOP primary. If I see antoher anti lowden ad during my baseball games i am going to shoot all 58 inches of my tv.

45, that is Reid's ceiling. He did irreversable damage with HCR with a lot of Indy's in this state. The "only" way Reid wins now against any of the 3 gopers is if a 3rd party guy steps up to steal votes from the GOp nominee. Otherwise this race will end 54-45.

Berkely will hold her seat, but Reid and titus, GONE....Lets just hope Obama comes to campaign for reid so that he won't get to the 45, he'll maybe get to 40.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

FM:

They need to spend money in several other races though. KY, MO, NC, OH, NH, PA,IL, CO, CA, WA, IN . I would like to see a poll for DE. Castle just voted against DADT and would like to see if it affected his numbers. Fred Barnes had a laughable column about the possibility of the Reps taking over the Senate. They would have to win 10 seats. I just don't see how that is possible. AR, ND, NV, IN, CO, PA, DE, IL They would also have to win two of these three (WA, WI and CA) and not lose any of their seats. It seems impossible to me.

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jmartin4s:

I think Reid will get 41%, I will be surprised if he gets anymore.

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Xenobion:

What's healthcare reform and why should I be mad about it for 10 months?

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StatyPolly:

I wouldn't worry about Reid's opponent not having enough money for general. $$ will pour in once the primary winner is known in five days. I am gonna contribute myself as well.

Here is a sober look at the race:

http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/harry-reid-s-easy-ride-almost-over-95211929.html

As far as gaffes go, it's tough to find a greater machine than Harry himself. Here is nice list of a few highlights:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31303.html

Oddly, my two personal faves didn't even make it on there.

1. Unemployment causes wife beating.

2. "No one here knows what to do" (re: 2008 banking crisis)

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melvin:

Reid is in deep trouble,but i think he will pull it out,no matter what you think of Reid he does bring home the bacon for Nevada,in i dont think Nevada wants to start at the bottom with a tea partier.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

Ensign will have a primary challenge against him too in 12. Those numbers are horrendous.

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Field Marshal:

the final Massachusetts poll for rasmussen was Coakley+2, that Rasmussen poll was an exit poll.

Are you sure? I believe the final ras poll in that race occured 5 days before the election.

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jmartin4s:

What Rasmussen poll are you talking about FM, the final Rasmussen poll was Coakley+2. Brown never led in an actual Rasmussen poll

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Stillow:

CHRIS MERKEY - The rumor here on ensign is that he will not reun again in 2012 and Heller will run abd probably easy win the nomination and then the general election.

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Farleftandproud:

I made early predictions of the most competitive races and the ones where there is likely to be a pick up or loss of a seat. I predicted 6 seats, Dems will lose in the senate, yet I don't think this will be one of them. I still think the surprise may be that Dino Rossi. Just something about him, being a suburban guy and a 2 time loser, the voters may just feel so bad for him that they may vote for him.

I wouldn't be surprised if Ensign doesn't run again. I think the mayor of Vegas, Goodman might be a good candidate for the Dems in 2012. It sounds like the GOP's candidates this year are a joke for the senate. The GOP Gubernatorial candidate sounds more qualified.

I ran out of cash and had a debt to pay the dentist, so I offered him a r

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Farleftandproud:

I made early predictions of the most competitive races and the ones where there is likely to be a pick up or loss of a seat. I predicted 6 seats, Dems will lose in the senate, yet I don't think this will be one of them. I still think the surprise may be that Dino Rossi. Just something about him, being a suburban guy and a 2 time loser, the voters may just feel so bad for him that they may vote for him.

I wouldn't be surprised if Ensign doesn't run again. I think the mayor of Vegas, Goodman might be a good candidate for the Dems in 2012. It sounds like the GOP's candidates this year are a joke for the senate. The GOP Gubernatorial candidate sounds more qualified.

I ran out of cash and had a debt to pay the dentist, so I offered him a r

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Farleftandproud:

Rotisserie chicken!!!!!

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Field Marshal:

What Rasmussen poll are you talking about FM, the final Rasmussen poll was Coakley+2. Brown never led in an actual Rasmussen poll

I know. But wasn't the poll several days or even a week before the actual election?

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Coldfusion:

Gotta love the right-wingers here attack Research 2000/Kos Polls, defend Ras, and attack progressives for attacking Ras.

In fact both polls have a "house effect" bias, but Ras's bias is about twice as bad as the R2000 polls, except when Ras is polling near election time (if he polls at all) or when alot of other pollsters are also in the field, in which case the Ras house effect shrinks a bit

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jmartin4s:

FM
The last Rasmussen poll was conducted the monday the night of the debate between Coakley and Brown. Which was exactly eight days before the election.

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Farleftandproud:

I think Scott Brown, Christie and Mcdonnell are ancient history in my opinion. Christie's victory was not surprising; Goldman Sachs got bailed out, Corzine was once working for them. He was in the wrong place at the wrong time. Christie didn't win by that much, and Bruce Springsteen who is quite the progressive, gave Christie the ok to play Springsteen songs at his rallies. Christie claims to have seen the Boss about 43 times. If I were a rock star, I'm not sure I could say no to him either.

Mcdonnell wasn't a surprise that he won, but the fact he won by 19 points was a bit troublesome.

Scott Brown was elected on a cold day in Jan. The younger voters did not turnout, and Democrats had a bad candidate.

If Mcdonnell is any indication about what the New Right is like, it may actually backfire on the GOP.

I think it was good Democrats had those losses because it is a wake up call for us. It is like playing for a great NFL team like the new England Patriots; you may lose to the mediocre Browns 30-10 and the lousy Chiefs 19-13, and than you go on to make it to the AFC championship when you get back on your game. It happens in politics too.

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Field Marshal:

FM
The last Rasmussen poll was conducted the monday the night of the debate between Coakley and Brown. Which was exactly eight days before the election.

That's what i thought. I guess i misinterpreted his comments to mean that they polled the day of the election and had Coakley up by 2.


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jmartin4s:

I'm looking at the internals of this poll and they look extremely suspicious. Not to mention, that Markos's weird obsession with bring a chicken to the doctor is getting rediculous. I like reading dailykos's articles but I get annoyed when it seems like they have directed their polls to try and push a certain agenda rather then be accurate.

Anyways I don't see Reid getting re-elected and I think the primary is still too close to call despite Markos wanting Angle to be the nominee. BTW if the third party candidate is polling at 2% right now he will probably only get 0.5% on election.

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jamesia:

I don't know many people that expect Reid to win, but being Majority Leader probably has lead to a robust campaign structure and funding. I wouldn't count him out.

On the Pollster average for this raise, filtering out Research 2000 and Rasmussen gives Reid 42% to Angle's 39% ... essentially mirroring this poll.

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Field Marshal:

jmartin,

That is typical with what i see happen with many on the extreme far-left. We exposed the chicken comments here a few weeks ago. They were completely taken out of context similar to Rand Paul's comments along with the text of the AZ bill. Just pathetic attempts to divert and demonize and i would expect nothing less from an extremist like Markos.

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jmartin4s:

Look as I have said before there S. Brown, Norton, Paul, Rubio, Blunt, and Toomey are the six crazies republicans this year. However, Sue Lowden is not one of those. She is actually quite moderate and sharp and for people to just lump her as a typical republican is plain ignorant. I'm not saying I agree with a lot of her political views but she is not as bad as most republicans we have been seeing this year.

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Field Marshal:

S. Brown, Norton, Paul, Rubio, Blunt, and Toomey are the six crazies republicans this year.

What makes them "crazies"? Are Romanoff, Bennett, Carnahan, Meek, Conway and Sestak the 7 democratic crazies?

Scott Brown is as moderate as they come. Yet, becuase he has an 'R' next to his name, you call him a crazy.

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Bigmike:

Awfully hard to win with fav at -12. But 5 months is forever. Way too many things can and will happen.

Don't the May unemployment numbers come out tomorrow? As majority leader, things like that have to take a toll on Reid.

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jmartin4s:

I've been looking at Angle's ads and they are just terrible. They look like they were produced during the 1980s. I'm having trouble believing she can actually win the primary. I'm not making a final call on this primary but I think Sue Lowden might be a slight favorite for Tuesday. My track record for calling the primaries has been pretty good this year with my only error being Specter vs. Sestak. I even predicted both the Sparks and Conway upsets so we shall see.

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Farleftandproud:

I think Reid can win this race, and should based on the fact that none of them are even qualified. Pat Toomey, I think is too extreme for PA, but he at least has 6 years experience in Congress. I don't see where any of Reid's possible opponents have that.

"Lowden a moderate"? Maybe if you are comparing her to Toomey or Rand Paul you are right, but based on info on her web site, she sounds like a semi-anarchist like the others in the primary.

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