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NV: 46% Reid, 44% Angle (Ipsos/Reuters 9/10-12)

Topics: Nevada , poll

Ipsos / Reuters
9/10-12/10; 600 registered voters, 4% margin of error
463 likely voters, 4.6% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Ipsos release)

Nevada

2010 Senate
46% H. Reid (D), 44% Angle (R) (chart)

2010 Governor
60% Sandoval (R), 31% R. Reid (D) (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Gibbons: 29 / 63 (chart)

 

Comments
Glenn Howes:

They should poll "None of these Candidates" in Nevada. Might set a record this year.

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dpearl:

Twelve surveys in a row - all within a few percent of a 2 point lead for Senator Reid. There is an amazing consistency to the polling in this tight race.

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BH:

"There is an amazing consistency to the polling in this tight race."

Good point, but this doesn't bode well for Reid. If Angle (who is an awful candidate) can find a way to give the electorate but a sliver of a reason to vote for her, they will. They clearly want to vote for Sharron. This is a Repub. climate through and through and it takes a highly unqualified, gaffe prone candidate to lose in a state like NV this year. In 2008 I think Reid would have won by 15 points or more. But Sharron only needs to find a way to run a mediocre campaign right now and she wins.

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Paleo:

Democrats have a very good turnout operation in Clark County, spearheaded by labor. It added several points to Obama's margin in '08 from the end of the race polling. That could make the difference in a close race like this.

And Reid is no stranger to close races:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada,_1998

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Louis:

"none of the Above" is a sham no matter how many votes "none of the above" getsit can never be the winner the canidate with the most votes stil wins so "None of the above" is no different then staying home.The candidates remain the same.

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Field Marshal:

2-1 Sandoval over Reid. Ouch.

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melvin:

Why are so many pollsters coming out with these outliers,because no Republican has never beaten a Democrat in a Gov race in a purple or blue state by 30pts in the history of this Country....This only keeps people away from the polls..A few polls had Brady up by 20pts in ill,which is very unlikely,because ill is a solid blue state that has to many minority voters for Brady to win by that much..Brady might win by only 1% I predict.

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melvin:

CQ POLITICS STILL PREDICTS THE GOP IS ONLY GOING TO WIN AROUND 24 SEATS..CQ POLITICS PREDICTED THE DEM WILL WIN 30 SEATS IN 2006,AND THEY PREDICTED THE GOP WOULD ONLY WIN 8 SEATS IN 2002 WHEN MOST POLLSTERS HAD THE GOP WINNING OVER 25 SEATS IN 2002..CQ POLITICS IS FAR MORE ACCURATE THEN RCP OR 538..UNTIL I SEE CQ POLITICS SHOWING THE GOP WINNING OVER 40 SEATS,THATS WHEN ILL BE CONVINCED THE REPUBLICANS MIGHT WIN BACK THE HOUSE.

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melvin:

Am hoping the Democrats in NH,and DE is going to cross over in vote for the teaparty candidate in the Republican primaries,because i hear they are both open primaries....This is the problem the GOP is going to have in 2012,because am sure Millions of Democrats are going to cross over in vote for Palin in the 2012 primaries,and caucuses.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

If O'Donnell wins the primary and loses the general election, I think a lot of Republican primary voters are going to hold Palin accountable.

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Farleftandproud:

I agree with you Chris. This poll again overpolled GOP leaners over Democratics and Democratic leaners. If you read the fine print on this poll, Independent voters favor reid by 14 points. This poll views independents as "pure independents". Rasmussen, I think picks more Republican leaners than vice versa, and that is why they make Independents look more conservative than they really are.

Interview dates: Sept 10-12, 2010
Interviews: 600 registered voters (RV); 463 likely voters (LV) in Nevada
229 Democrats/Lean Democrats; 299 Republicans/Lean Republicans
Margin of error: + 4.0% for registered voters; + 4.6 for likely voters
+ 6.5% for Democrats (RV); + 5.7% for Republicans (RV)

Angle is still behind by 2, but for registered voters she is behind by 8.

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Farleftandproud:

That is a nice thought to hope the unlikely GOP candidates win in NH or DE, but I am not that optimistic. I think it is more likely in NH to see Ayotte lose than Castle in DE. Too many old time Reagan Republicans will show up in DE, and Castle will likely win.

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Farleftandproud:

Rasmussen just had a VT senate poll, but no Governor's poll? It seems hard to believe a Republican governor will win again in VT, since Dubie is not moderate like our current governor, Douglas. What is interesting about VT is it is the whitest state in the United States, and Obama's approval is the highest of any state.

"Barack Obama carried Vermont in 2008 with 68% of the vote, and now 63% of voters in the state approve of the job he is doing as president. Thirty-seven percent (37%) disapprove of the president’s performance. Obama’s level of approval in Vermont is well above the ratings he earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll."

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tjampel:

Louis:

"none of the Above" is a sham no matter how many votes "none of the above" getsit can never be the winner the canidate with the most votes stil wins so "None of the above" is no different then staying home.The candidates remain the same.

Not exactly Louis. Every single vote cast for "None of the Above" is a vote lost by someone. It's silly to pretend that the candidates will lose equal numbers of votes to "None of the Above".

Take Sharon Angle. In one survey 68% of Republicans wished someone else were running. Some of them may just vote "None of the Above" to send that message, or because it's too hard stomach her AND...because they can...they have this unique option in NV (and nowhere else in the country, btw).

This is even more likely with independents who are sick of Reid...he's lost them completely... but think Angle's simply too extreme to vote for. Many of these folks vote because it's their civic duty or because there's some other race they do have a preference for. If they couldn't vote for "None of the Above" they'd probably pull the lever for Angle and throw up a little in the mouth while doing so.

There are currently quite a few voters who say they don't like either candidate. When pushed really hard they usually have some preference; however NV makes it easy for them to register their disgust with both candidates. Now the real question is who will be hurt more by this ballot oddity; my bet is that Angle will suffer more because most of the people who vote None of the Above absolutely wouldn't have voted otherwise for Reid and would have easily voted for Lowden, for example.

So, it remains to be seen just how many people are so turned off by Angle (and would never be Reid voters) (or visa versa) that they actually pull the lever for None of the Above. There's precedent in NV for None of the Above getting the most votes. Each vote it does draw is one less vote for the candidate it drew from.

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MikeyA:

The None of the Above option is the reason I believe even with it this close Angle has the edge.

The Tea Party base is the most energetic in virtually every race we see. They will vote for her no matter what. Reid's base doesn't seem to be energized and he benefits only from negative ads against Angle, he doesn't give them a reason to vote for him just reasons not to vote for her.

I believe of the wishy-washy voters more of those for Reid will vote None of the Above than Angle voters because that's the trend of incumbants who don't break 50 and who hover at 45.

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MoralHazard:

Good thing that Reid picked this opportunity to push illegal alien amnesty in the defense appropriations bill. That should go over very well in Nevada!

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