Pollster.com

IndependentThinker:

@sotonightthatimightsee

"GO AHEAD AND CHERRYPICK YOUR POLL, FOOL!

HOPE YOU'RE AS UPBEAT WHEN THEY CALL MOST STATES FOR MCCAIN ON NOV. 4TH LOL..WOULD PAY TO SEE YOUR DUMB FACE!"

you're a fr**king bitter As*hole ...
While you are accusing me of "cherrypicking" the Gallup poll you are doing the same by dismissing from your list the Ras one showing +8 for Obama. Actually you're the one who is cherrypicking polls cause you're making a list while ignoring the Ras one.I was announcing a just-released poll, check the time idiot

Go ahead, who cares that you're going to vote for Bush 3 times in a row, it won't be enough to put McPalinocchio over the top

Imbecile!

Shouldn't the headline of this post be Obama *50*, McCain 43?

Headline should read Obama 50 McCain 43

That's A LOT better than the headline!

I agree Adam, it should be "Obama 50 (!!!) McCain 43" ... wow, insanity. And post-VP debate too.

@IT: Not Of General Interest. See "Please email us to report offensive comments" below.

Wow... this is an insanely big swing to Obama. R2K was Obama +1 in the last poll; McCain hasn't changed but Obama got all of his advancement from undecideds apparently.

Ouch. NV is a weird state. The demographics should play to Democrats' strength but the Vegas area loves the Republicans (I think for tax reasons... not sure, a friend who lives there explained it to me once). But this is yet another state McCain absolutely cannot lose and yet one he really can't afford to campaign all that hard in. The time is drawing near where he has to look at a handful of formerly red states and just hope and pray they somehow hold red despite the grim #s.

Almost had a stroke when I saw the headline (40%-43% McCain) and then flipped completely when I saw the article with the real numbers (50% Obama-43% McCain).

Once again the poll is showing a substantative shift towards Obama in a critical battleground state.

Obama has now led in the last four polls in NV.

McCain can't win here because of Yucca Mountain.

Holy Moly McCain! Looks like he might have hit craps in Nevada!

Great day to be an American!

Buh Bye McSlime.

The bad news for the McCain fans just keeps on comin' (as Sarah would say.)

: )

Can't wait until that hillbilly half-wit is on her way back to Alaska!

It's been like Christmas this past week seeing all these states turn blue. Screw a white Christmas, I'll take a blue Christmas!

After the party is over on Nov. 5th we wake up to a country in economic melt down.....too bad we have to wait until Jan. 20 to really start rebuilding....hopefully Obama will be leading from the bully pulpit before he is inaugurated....and Sarah is spending the time amending her tax returns to recover all that taxible income from Alaska that she missed the first time through.....glad i don't have to release my taxes to the public for audit!

I'd be interested in hearing from someone who lives in or near NV why the Republicans have traditionally done so well there (particularly in Vegas, where that makes little sense to me) and why now, besides the economy, it may be flipping. It can't all be because of Yucca Mountain, can it? Or maybe it's just Carville 101..

@Angry Alaskan

You implied yesterday that we might blue Alaska by Nov. 4th or did I not understand you?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rj-eskow/mccains-erratic-health-st_b_132242.html Yeah, this plan us going to help Americans....

Paint it light blue!!!

I suspect McCain's numbers will fall even more when the media reports that he was a member of a private group that supplied aid to Osama Bin Laden:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/07/mccain-on-tuesday-preside_n_132653.html

McCain can't win here because of Yucca Mountain.

---------

I would have thought this would be fatal to McCain in NV. But, he's been up slightly or close all year long until the recent Obama surge. Do Nevadans really not care much about this issue?

"Ouch. NV is a weird state. The demographics should play to Democrats' strength but the Vegas area loves the Republicans (I think for tax reasons... not sure, a friend who lives there explained it to me once). "

McCain has a lot of big casino owners supporting him. Sheldon Adelson, Steve Wynn and Lanni. The former are big pro-Zionists and are involved in internal Israeli politics, as well (big backers of Likud and Bibi Netanyahu). So they likely are pumping their employees and pushing money into 527 Committees, local stealth advertising, pumping cash into the RNC, etc.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/state/20080426-1109-nv-mccainmoney-casinos.html

Where'd all the republicans go?

Interesting cinnamon. That would explain a lot. But it would seem even that is falling short now. My wife went to Vegas a month or so back and she said it was desserted compared to the same time in different years prior. Vegas is hurting too (less American tourists with money to burn = less $$) I guess money talks more that special interests in the bag for the GOP when even the special interests are losing $$.

looks like NV is a bridge to nowhere for WcCain

I live in Nevada and here's why the state has been red for so long:

Contrary to many claims in these posts, the Las Vegas area (Clark County) is not GOP territory. It's a blue county. However, pretty much the rest of the state is blood red. People who live out in the desert hinterlands who know very little about diversity or anything that has to do with progressive thought. Washoe County, which includes the Reno area, is more purple but still ends up red in the end. We also have a ton of Mormons and you know how they vote.

The big change this year is demographics. There's been about a 100,000 shift in the number of registered dems this year. Dems now enjoy an 80,000 rv advantage. That's game changing in a state that's been so close for so long. I'd bet the farm on Nevada being blue for Obama in 08 and for a long time to come. That is unless the economy continues to tank, tourism comes to a screeching halt and Las Vegas goes bust. People will move away and it could set the state back 10-15 years.

Good observation. I still think the giant wave of new Dem. registrations is being underrepresented. They need to show on election day.

Let me speak in a Palin-like way. I am a Nevada expert because I live in Oregon and my state touches NV. Nevada's population Boom includes a large amount of Californian's and progressive folks. In addition, the state has a HUGE hispanic population obviously which seems to favor obama by a min 60% margin.

And maybe they've simply had enough?:)

I can not wait until Palin is only an * in American history!

"It's the economy, stupid," as Trosen suggests. If people have less expendable income, they aren't going to blow it in the Las Vegas casinos. A bad economy hits Nevada pretty hard, if in a slightly different way than in say, Ohio or Florida.

The GOP owns this bad economy and, combined with McCain's recent erratic behavior and the gradual meltdown of Palin's credibility, the linked effect of these factors has created a Perfect Storm for McCain that has hurt his performance across the board in swing states. Why should NV be an exception?

That plus the fact that Obama and Biden done a good of selling themselves as the smart, safe, and positive option in perilous times, accounts for Obama's recent upsurge in the polls. He's coming to be seen as the nation's logical and best answer to the many, many problems authored by the Bush administration.

Sorry all. I posted the wrong link to the story about McCain supplying aid to Osama Bin Laden. Here's the right link:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/06/why-mccains-time-with-cou_n_132470.html

I often wonder how life will be for McCain Palin after the election. Dem congress and president. Hmmmm. Look out.

It's a beautiful site:

Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 09/27 - 10/06 -- 49.4 46.6 Obama +2.8

Reno Gazette-Journal 10/03 - 10/06 600 LV 50 43 Obama +7
Rasmussen 10/02 - 10/02 700 LV 51 47 Obama +4
InAdv/PollPosition 09/30 - 09/30 437 LV 48 47 Obama +1
CNN/Time 09/28 - 09/30 684 LV 51 47 Obama +4

This is a big libertarian state, many of my friends are sitting out because they hate McCain but cant vote for a Democrat. Although some are for willing to vote for O because of the war. We have a lot of Ron Paul supporters here, he took 2nd in the caucus... Seeing Obama's ground game here first hand I am not surprised

New PPP poll in Ohio show Obama up by six (49-43)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Ohio_1007785.pdf

scjmcy2k where are you located? See a McCain ground game?:)

desperation has taken ahold the gop...kinda sad.

i think repubs are starting to understand that what they have done to this country has ruined the nation AND their party..

Like an addict they are pushing in the same direction that got them in this mess instead of a reorginization of their party with sane, rational, right-leaning moderates at the top.

NEW OHIO PPP POLL, Obama up 6

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Ohio_1007785.pdf

Thank you, John McCain, for running such a horrible campaign and ensuring the Democratic comeback that America needs right now!

Now let's continue donating, volunteering, and getting out the vote so we can deliver the knockout blow to the Repugnant Party!

I live in Las Vegas and canvass for Obama every weekend. I've never seen anyone from McCain campaign canvassing. AND, every time I'm talking to undecided voters I ask them if the McCain campaign has stopped by. Each and every time they say "NO".... We have registered so many new voters. We spent the month of September everywhere in Las Vegas registering new voters. The Obama ground game here is on. Having the January caucus helped us. We have people who have been volunteering now for over a year. NEVADA IS GOING BLUE!! And, yes, having 4,000 Californians moving here each month helps. Clark county (Las Vegas) went to Kerry last time but not by enough to make up for the rest of the state. This time, we will have enough!!!

Trosen, NV and the Vegas area are still highly Mormon (12%) and culturally conservative. I know, go figure.

Thank you for all your hard work TVegas!

@ NW Patrick, we live in the southwest area of Las Vegas... Seriously, I have never been more impressed with a operation. And I am a project manager for many major casinos...Not much in way of McCain, a few signs and bumper stickers :)

@TVegas

What part of LV are you working?

Officials raid Acorn in Vegas..Lincoln is rolling over in his grave. The GOP is an embarrasment to this country: period

Yes, it's a post VP debate poll. That's when many Americans learned what I already knew. Gov. Palin is an underqualified idiot.

It's incredible as the onslaught continues, we're to the point now that the audience tuning into the debates will be majority Obama voters, and will interpret the debate as they see it and want to see it, viewing McCain's antics or tactics as desperate.

Anything short of a Bombshell or Terrorist attack and this is over. We're past the point of Game changers.

@Shannon

I think you're barking up the wrong tree. But you're sure barking a lot. As has been mentioned before, the Osama connection in the article you cite is not relevant. Lots of people backed the Mujahideen against the Russians. We did and Osama did.

The Council for World Freedom is creepy, but the Osama thing is incidental.

The CIA (Admittedly it's the CIA so take with a cup of salt) says Osama never relieved any backing from the US, and furthermore, McCain was never directly responsible for any action taken by the group to my knowledge. His association with them is certainly damning, but the Osama connection is thin ice.

@scjmcy2k

I work the NW area, out of the Cheyenne office.

This is one for my good friend Stillow.

I tried to tell her.

There is still a month to go.

It's weird how we have 5 new national polls showing this is a statistical dead heat, but all of these state polls show a slaughter for Obama.

Who knows. Given the way the economy looks, Obama may wish he hadn't won.

Statistical dead heat? WTF? Is any poll showing a lead for Obama invisible to boom or something?

@Hope Reborn

I don't think a terrorist attack would do it for McCain. What is he going to say, we're the party that kept you safe for the last 7 years but we blew it... again?

The worst case for Obama is the proverbial "dead hooker, with a kilo of cocaine, in the trunk of his care" scenario. One not often seen in American politics these days, though Karl Rove is still on the lamb.

@Viperlord:

I said there are 5 new national polls showing it a statistical dead heat asshat. Geesh.

I guess Gallup doesn't count?

HERE'S A SIMPLE QUESTION FOR MCCAIN TO ASK OBAMA TONIGHT:

"Senator Obama, what experiences from your political career have prepared you to handle the dire financial crisis before us?"

Or the Battleground poll?

@Viperlord:

I'm sorry, you are just an idiot.

I'm sorry, I didn't realize you were in Delusional mode today.

@boomshak

That is the question? Alright, what is John McCain going to say? Oh I'll consult with Phil Gramm, you know good old Phil that wrote the deregulation legislation that brought us Enron and the current financial crisis. You know the guy who wrote McCain's economic plan?

Please... ask the question, to both candidates.

Here's a good question for McCann. Is it true that you are inciting your crowds to make a attempt on my life Senator McCann. His crowds have been heard calling out "terrorist" and "kill him".

@boomshak

you have written on so many occasions how bad McCain is.

As for the polls, the Daily Average tracker is 7.6%.

This and all the other States polls you complain about all are compatible with the average of the trackers. Indeed the average tracker has a very high level of certainty unlike your assertions.

Should they paint it blue? You Betcha!... :)

Once again another state McCain has ignored. And frankly deserves to be behind. While he was preparing for his big debate in Arizona, the one I will not watch by the way, would it have killed him to put together a little rally on Sat or Sunday in NEIGHBORING state of NV? What’s funny is DESPITE Yucca Mountain McCain plays well in NV. Nevada is receiving the same treatment as NC and VA. Tell me the last time each was in the state. Bottomline…if the McCain campaign doesn’t come up with some sort of economic plan he will get crushed. Plain and simple, people are hurting and looking to see whether either candidate understands that. Now whether or not either candidate plan will work is besides the point, McCain seems to think tax cuts and smaller government is what people what to hear…wrong dumb ass. At least Obama and Biden are mentioning middle class and what their plans are. People are HURTING. Palin can be as down-to-earth as possible, but w/o a plan…it’s useless.

Again due to the high number of undecideds this race is not over, but...well what I said earlier.

Just FYI, part of this surge in Nevada has to come from the Obama "ground game" there. I live in the Bay Area. My cousin went to Reno to volunteer to canvas or do anything for Obama and came home a couple of days early because there were more than a thousand Obama volunteers on hand and really not enough for them to do. That is an unprecedented and impressive problem to have...too many volunteers!

Marty:

Ground games are nice, but I think the current economic situation and a recent visit by Obama...might also be a reason for the poll numbers.

@Marty

Whoa! Coooooooool!

So, Dow down well over ANOTHER 400 points! What do you think voters will be looking for in the debate tonight????

A solid hand they can trust on the economic rudder OR

And old guy who just found out there is a problem and is more paniced than the populace!

@Batony

I'm not an ageist Mandela and Churchill were great leaders in their senior years and Reagan wasn't too shabby.

But you known McCain isn't anywhere near that class, doesn't have the passion, the commitment for leadership.

He simply doesn't have the energy levels. We have had a maverick in the WH for nearly 8 years who too, is often AWOL.

Make that another 500 POINTS!!!!

Looks like Ayers will NOT be on the mind of the public....

@Laguna_B:

Don't make it seem like you are happy we loss 500 points, people's life savings are being effected. I know you want Obama to win, but be aware that people are hurting and will hurt much longer after this election due to this financial crisis.

@Thoughtful:

Maybe you are right.

I agree with 'thoughtful'. McCain simply does not inspire confidence.

Mandela, in particular, left his 28 years cell with a sound and stable mind that allowed his people to have confidence in him and a sense of optimism.

Can any McCain supporter say the same about their candidate?

@ Batony

JUST today, I lost about 20% of MY investment values due to the credit crunch. Beleive me, I am not celebrating.....I TOO am hurting watching my economic security disappear.

So I am NOT celebrating the loss by any means....

@Laguna_b:

Okay just making sure. How you wrote it made it seem like you were happy.

Batony, all us Barack-supporting working stiffs have 401Ks and families too. None of this is "good news" for anybody. McCain.. oh up until a few weeks ago, was right in lock-step with the Republican talking machine that's kept sputing over the last 6,7 years that the economy is "great," "growing," and that "the fundamentals are strong" (oh you meant "the workers" - my a$$). That's why he's getting crushed. He sold his soul to Bush and the hard right and now he's trying to backpeddle and change the subject. Not gonna happen. The Republicans oversaw this mess. And Bill O'Reilly trying to paint Barney Frank as the economic boogeyman isn't going to help.

Trosen:

Since I work in the financial industry...I can tell you this, subprime lending had a lot to do with this financial crisis. When is a 620 credit score good enough to buy a house? Don't get me started

I've lived in the Las Vegas area since the mid '80s. Las Vegas is blue but not overwhelming, generally in the 54-46 range. Plus it underperforms in terms of turnout. That allows the remainder of the state, particularly the heavily red and reliably voting cow counties, to overcome Las Vegas. The local political media analysts always talk about the "Republican lock" statewide.

Yucca Mountain is overstated. Gore had potential to take advantage in 2000 but he idiotically all but ignored the state. Bush had made misleading comments about Yucca and was vulnerable as hell. He knew it, and ducked into friendly northern Nevada once during the campaign. That was it, no other Nevada appearances. I was stunned Gore stayed away.

By 2004 Yucca had drifted to a second tier issue. And Las Vegans were more focused on national security concerns after 9/11 and reports the major casinos were a likely target. Mohammed Atta and the other 9/11 hijackers met here on the Strip months prior to 9/11. That fact became heavily publicized. I host debate watching parties and in 2004 friends who had never worried about national security were suddenly talking about it in my living room.

Fast forward to 2008. The hispanic numbers are starting to be felt in the voting rolls as more are registered, or simply have reached voting age. Registration drives are helping Clark County get out of its comfy underachieving mode. The economy is in lousy shape, including lower numbers of tourists in the casinos, as someone reported up thread. Just yesterday Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman conceded the city is out of money and can't do what it wants to do.

Combine all of that with a 5-7 point Obama national lead and a state that was slightly blue in the 2004 partisan index, and naturally Obama leads in Nevada. But it won't be a landslide, or guaranteed Democratic stronghold going forward, since the state always reports 34-37% self-identified conservatives. The female vote is always a lower percentage of the Nevada vote than nationwide. Obviously, that doesn't help Democrats.

The GOP campaign has melted down. It's that simple. This was a close horse race until late September -- and McCain chose a running mate who lacks logical consistency and emotional stability. Palin was for the Bridge to Nowhere before she was against it. That's exactly the sort of flip-flop that the Bush/Cheney team used against Kerry in 2004.

I can't say that a bad economy didn't trip McCain up; maybe he would be losing if he had chosen a more experienced and less erratic politician like George Voinovich or Richard Lugar. He might be losing, but not by so much.

Batony, then you also know full well how these banks gave mortgages to anyone with a pulse, then flipped and sold them "packaged" with a bunch of other crap, while the rating agencies gave them "5 stars" as great investments, with the mortgage changing hands so many times the original lender could give a rat's ass if it went into foreclosure or not. But we could overlook all that and blame Jimmy Carter, Clinton, and of course, all those dark-skinned folks. They always make good scapegoats.

This NV poll shows Obama up 7 there; another NV poll released today (from IA) shows Obama up 2 there. See:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/IA_Nevada_100708.pdf

It is possible that McCain is quietly conceding NV. He canceled a Reno event last week; he has no visits to NV on his upcoming schedule. As comments above have indicated, McCain's ground game in the state is nearly invisible. Obama is now outspending McCain in NV by almost 2 to 1. See:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/10/obamas_spending_edge.html

5 consecutive NV polls have shown Obama leading McCain there.

To get a feel for the situation in NV, see:

http://www.politickernv.com/winners_losers/october-3-2008

&

http://www.politickernv.com/ddamore/2538/examining-nevadas-poverty-reliable-polling-what-about-cellphones

I just wanted to say that with Obama ahead in New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado, I believe Arizona would be blue this year if McCain were not the GOP nominee. So for future elections, assuming this one works out the way I think, Arizona will be trending blue as well. Creating a beachhead in the west for demcratic candidates.

McCain and Palin have NO plan for the economy and NO plan to end this war in Iraq. McCain and Palin are the same as Bush and Cheney. A Republican is a Republican. I don't trust McCain and Palin.

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!