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NV: Obama 47, McCain 45 (NewWest-9/14-19)

Topics: PHome

Project New West (D) /
Myers Research (D) / Grove Insight (D)
9/14-19/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Nevada
Obama 47, McCain 45

 

Comments
NW Patrick:

DOH!

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mm:

If FoxNews poll pu Obama ahead by 6 point, someone can safely say that Mr. DEREGULATOR is in bid trouble.

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NorseSoccer:

First of all, who?
Second of all, interesting.

Even if this leans to the Obama side of the margin of error, it just lends credence to the fact that Nevada is definitely in play.

Very very yellow state!

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nick-socal:

Oopsie. The tide appears to be turning...

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Flashlight:

By tonight, Obama's RCP average will be back over +4.

You heard it here first.

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nick-socal:

NorseSoccer, It sure is. Reno will tip this election. Reno is a lot less Republican now and in fact Democratic registration has been on fire up there.

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cabos101:

Nevada has definitely been shifting blue. The economy and housing problem there is a disaster, plus, finally, the Hispanic and African American vote in Las Vegas has gotten registered. NV, like CO and NM is starting to lean toward Obama.

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thoughtful:

@stillow

Coming your way!

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carl29:

Liberal, biased, flawed, bad poll, right boomshak? :-)

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NW Patrick:

You guys are fun:)

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

Hehehe...I will personally deliver NV for McCain. Even if I have to do what the Dems do....vote early and vote often!

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thoughtful:

Word of caution Democratic pollsters not that I think it matters!

I thought monday was an incredible polling day. I'm just waiting .............

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JFactor:

If Nevada goes blue, Obama wins the election in 100% certainty. That's a fact.
_________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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NW Patrick:

I am cautious but many ALWAYS thought this would swing to Obama BIG time at the end.

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Mike_in_CA:

I'll be in Nevada in two weeks for Barack! Go blue Nevada! It's the best I can do from here in Deep Blue California! :)

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thoughtful:

@Stillow

The public are fickle, they have gone off your girl, and never was on your man, I've got to run back for more fun and games later!

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Bonzi77:

Outlier! Sampling! Margin of Error!

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Batony:

Wait this is Democratic Pollster...so let's not jump through hoops guys.

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laguna_b:

@Mike_in_CA

Good on ya! If you can take off the time you are probably pretty young. That being the case you have everything in your future riding on this election.

The thing I hate about all these polls is the self contradiction I see all the time. I know people here like to disect them but after a while I wonder if you are dealing with data that has 2 digits of significance and tryint to find four. At this point I won't feel safe until Obama had a 5 pt lead in every poll of every critical state. I suspect we will see that after a few REAL Palin interviews.

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sherman:

The only partisan polling firm that is supposed to be fairly unbiased is PPP. Much as I would love for Obama to be ahead in NV, this poll can't really be trusted.

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KipTin:

Do not read too much into Fox poll (Gallup). It is based on Registered voters....not likely. Additionally, with a sampling error of plus or minus three the lower limit of Obama is 42 and the upper limit of McCain is 42 (aka TIE). Better to gauge against daily tracking polls. Again remember to differentiate between registered voters (which favors Democrats because there are so many more Democrats) and likely voters.

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Batony:

In/Adv has Obama up by 9 50% to 41%, that's down 1 pt from last week. Are they reputable? Anyone know their history?

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falcon79:

@ kiptin
yeah u r right - registered voters are less likely to vote than likely voters
yeah right
crazy righties

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KipTin:

And this Nevada poll confirms that Nevada remains a toss-up. No movement for any candidate.

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KipTin:

First of all... falcon79... I am not a "rightie."

Second, when the highest turnout of eligible (18 or over, citizen) voters was way back in 1960 (Kennedy-Nixon) at 63%, then one indeed has to look at who is LIKELY to vote. Historically, 70% of eligible voters are registered, and the number of registered voters who actually vote has ranged from 82-91% over the last four decades.

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rami:

NV, CO, VA, NC, IN, NM, MT ... Mccain has to defend so many states now, some of which were not even marked as "swing" initially !

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s.b.:

mm Fox polls had Kerry winning in 2004 by 3%. Their polls definately do not follow the ideological leanings of the network, unlike some other MSM organizations.

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marty:

Yeah, speaking here from California, my Mexican-American, Spanish-speaking wife is off to spend a week in Nevada polling for Obama...her and a couple of thousand just like her. Watch out.

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carl29:

s.b, in which poll Fox had Kerry winning by 3%?

These are all the polls Fox released after the Republican convention in 2004:

FOX News (1200 LV) 10/29 - 10/30
Bush 46% Kerry 47% Kerry +1

FOX News (1000 LV) 10/17 - 10/18
Bush 48% Kerry 43% Bush +5

Fox News (1000 LV) 10/3 - 10/4
Bush 48% Kerry 45% Bush +3

FOX News (1000 LV) 9/21 - 9/22
Bush 45% Kerry 43% Bush +2

FOX/Opin. Dyn. (1000 LV) 9/7 - 9/8
Bush 47% Kerry 45% Bush +2

FOX News (1,000 LV) 8/24 - 8/25
Bush 44% Kerry 45% Kerry +1

Again, where?

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thoughtful:

@Carl29

You are sugar!

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carl29:

Thank you, thoughtful. You made me blush :-)

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faithhopelove:

The 2 most recent polls of NV have Obama up 2% and McCain up 0.5%--very close race there.

Obama has just increased his advertising in NV. See:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/24/obama_ramps_up_ad_spending.html

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marty:

You can see Obama increasing his ground game in Nevada fro his California base. As I said, sending volunteers, doing mass telephone polling...

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ronnie:

Carl, these Repubs make things up as they go along...You should know that by now, lol....Great job pointing out the facts!

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