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NY-23: 2009 Special (Siena 10/27-29)


Siena
10/28-29/09; 704 likely voters, 3.7% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Siena: release, crosstabs)

New York 23rd Congressional District

Favorable / Unfavorable
Dede Scozzafava (R): 29 / 51
Bill Owens (D): 40 / 36
Doug Hoffman (C): 41 / 37

2009 House: Special Election
36% Owens, 35% Hoffman, 20% Scozzafava (chart)

 

Comments
The Moderator:
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011121:

I really don't see the upside for the conservatives here. Consider the following-

NY-23 is a strongly (moderate) republican district
According to Opensecrets as of Oct 14 Owens had the best of all worlds financially. He had raised more money than either Scozzafava or Hoffman individually but less than the two combined (so he had more money to use than his competitors but hadn't soaked up as much Dem money as the other two soaked up rep money). He also had more cash on hand than his opponents combined. Source:
http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=NY23&cycle=2010

So the conservatives have used up a bunch of cash, furthered a conservative vs. moderate civil war, embarrassed the NRCC/Steele/Newt, and what have they accomplished? They've given what should be a strong GOP seat a 50% chance to go to the dems.

If Hoffman wins they will of course be pleased but I think it'll sabotage them going forward. If Hoffman loses the fratricide on the right should be bloody. Seems like a strategic blunder.

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RaleighNC:

Scozzafava has dropped out of this race...haha.

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A referendum on Obama? This is a really interesting race here. True, it's polarizing to the "big tent" battle, but conservatives and moderates need to unite around fiscal issues. Social agenda's will not win the day IMHO. So this looks like a very interesting referendum on the big tent...and the fidelity of conservatism. I'm bit shocked by how much Hoffman has surged in a very short time.

Fascinating stuff.

iwantmypartyback.org

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Joe Dolce:

011121: NY-23 is a strongly (moderate) republican district

Exactly. But don't tell them that.

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TruthMeter:

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

“With about 200 interviews down we had Hoffman 45 Owens 26 Scozzafava 17…her withdrawal will just make it that much easier for Hoffman”

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openid.aol.com/Rahmsputin:

Scozzafava supporters hate both Hoffman and Owens an equal amount. They do, however, appear to like Obama:

SCOZZAFAVA SUPPORTERS
-- Have a favorable view of Barack Obama by a 64-31 margin.
-- Have an unfavorable view of Hoffman 15-57.
-- Have an unfavorable view of Democrat Bill Owens, 19-50.

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Stillow:

Here we go with a bunch of libs telling the GOP they should be pushing Scozzafava. You libs must think everyone else is stupid. Furthering a conservative vs. moderate civil war in the GOP? The only civil war I see is with the loony left wing and the moderates within the Dem party....with there inability to pass health care reform or anything else this year except a failed stimulus.

When libs are out telling the GOP they should be supporting Scozzafava , then that shoudl be a wake up call to the GOP....the libs are doing that cus they know Scozzafava may even caucus with the Dems since she is further left than most democrats are.

You libs are a crack up, you have majhor issues within your own party, yet your butting your big noses into a GOP matter. You libs would love nothing more than to see Scozzafava elected, cus your whole motive here is to move the GOP to the left making them just like Dems....its not going to work.

Take a look at the civil war in your own party before trying to teach the GOP how to be liberal.

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tjampel:

There are still a few people who ID as Republican and are moderate-conservative; they are fairly liberal on social issues and conservative on financial ones and may go either way on foreign policy and environmnental issues; some of them, according to polls, even support having a public option. Most have already moved on to independent status.

As of today the remaining few people have been officially left behind by the Republican Party, which walked away from it's own candidate in NY23. In districts in the Northeast, in particular, Republicans have traditionally been just this mix. Mitt Romney, for example, exemplified this type of Republican as Gov of MA (and later moved way right). Apparently that's no longer going to cut it. Purged of "RINOs" the Republican party will lurch to the right, driven by its remaining hardcore adherents in primaries.

This may lead to some interesting situations in swing districts. If republicans think that a Doug Hoffman is going to be competitive in MA, for example, or CT or RI or ME or VT they have a surprise coming.

Bottom line, Republicans become pure and true to their newly conservative roots; fewer people call themselves Republican. Republicans fail to make large inroads in the next cycle because their conservative candidates are a little too extreme for some swing districts.

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Stillow:

Again, more liberals like yourself telling the GOP it needs to become more liberal....geee, how swell is that. The party has lost members, myself included because it turned away from conservatism under Bush. If they get there conservative mojo back, people like myself will rejoin the party. You guys said this same nonsense in the 70's and 80's....uh oh, look what happened when a real conservative came across, he kicked the living daylights out of the liberals.

Its absolutely hilarious how you libs cannot see the problems with your own party splitting between the radical left pelosi wing and the more moderate wing of the party. If the Dems are becominga liberal party, then the GOp needs to become a conservative party again.

You guys keep bashing conservatives, yet lets see, in VA the conservative is beating the snot out of Deeds...in NJ of all places a conservative is tied with an incumbant liberal in of the bluest states we have in this country.

Nearly half the country identified as conservatives and you libs are whining about how the GOP needs to abandon its conservatism and become loony liberals like yourselves.

Its got going to work...in fact this year and in 2010 the Dems are goign to get spanked by conservatives all over the country in the elections.

But thanks for making laugh on this Halloween day.......liberals giving advice to the GOP.......whats next? Asking the GOP to nominate obama in 2012?

Deal with the issues in your own party before butting into something you know nothing about. Conservatives will make a comeback, they will reclaim the party as it did under Reagan...and history shows us, tha tis how you win elections.

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Farleftandproud:

It is curtains for Owens, unless moderates throw their vote to him. It isn't impossible. He knows he has to be very fiscally conservative to win in that district. Perhaps his best hope is to attack Hoffman as a carpetbagger and not a typical fiscally conservative Republican like Romney, but a poster boy of the Christian right. I am sure Hoffman will have competition again in 2010. It isn't a big deal.

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tjampel:

Conservatives will definitely reclaim the Republican party. They already have, and they're continuing to purge remaining moderates, as this race shows. What moderate Republican is now going to even consider getting in a state or national race?

It's a matter of time before Snowe and Collins and, who knows, maybe Murkowski as well call it quits or get effectively pushed out. When Lindsay Graham is called a DINO by his constituents there's little doubt that what you say is true.

McDonnell is winning by acting like a governor. Deeds isn't up to the task. McDonnell has gone to great lengths NOT to trumpet hi ultra-conservative credentials. He comes across as being focused on finding solutions to VA's problems.

Corzine is simply unpopular. I see absolutely no evidence that Christie supporters have ideological reasons for their support. Look at Obama's ratings in NJ..still high. NJ-ites are being crippled by high property taxes and insurance costs. They blame Corzine for this (perhaps rightly so). This race hasn't focused on national issues; it's been about Jersey, taxes, pocketbook stuff.

40% conservative (what polling seems to show nationally) is not majority conservative. It's majority moderate-conservative. Hoffman is staunchly conservative. If you think we're trending that way due to Obama's policies then show me data which proves it.

The Dem party has as many problems as the Republican party. It's deeply fragmented. We don't pretend we're one happy family. The difference is that the Dem party can't get much further to the left at this point, so it's movement will be towards the center again...where the votes are.

The Repub party is clearly moving back to the right, which is where you like it. I'm not saying it's a bad thing for those who've felt left out, as you apparently do. It's going to make a lot of people far more energized; it will bring some independents back into the fold; I'll admit that. I am skeptical, however, that the "Club for Growth" wing represents the voice of most independents or that independents will vote for Hoffman types if they fully understand what policies these people support. If it were I can't imagine how Obama got them to vote for him last year. If 50% of independents support a hard left Obama, how many support hard right candidates? Maybe 40-45%. That wins many elections in conservative districts. Why should it win elections in swing districts with PVI of +1 to +3 for Repubs or Dems

In the end the economy and job markets will determine the outcome of the 2010 cycle more than any sea change in the Republican party.

If the economy is still failing to create jobs next November look for a big republican gain, in spite of everything I just said (30 in the House, 5-6 in the Senate). If the job market improves markedly by the 3rd Quarter of next year I predict Republican gains of 10-15 seats in the house and 2-3 in the Senate, tops.


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tjampel:

BTW...give up on Owens. He's toast now. Hoffman has become the "Republican" in a district that's been Republican for 139 years.

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Xenobion:

The damage has been done 20% absentee voting + the fact no new ballots were put in I'm sure for election day.

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Cyril Washbrook:

@tjampel: it's really not that simple. As this poll shows, Scozzafava supporters are not just going to default to Hoffman. Indications are that the Scozzafava supporters who were left supporting her by the time this poll was taken were liberal and moderate Republicans, and they appear to prefer Owens (favourability 19-50) to Hoffman (favourability 15-57). I'd say that the balance has probably tipped in Hoffman's favour, but it's not over.

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Stillow:

tjampel

Well I can't disagree more. in 2004 when at the time W got more votes than anyone else had gotten to that point, I did not vote for him. i am a staunch fiscal conservative had he had lost my vote by that time. There are a lot of me out there. I've seen polling show that 25 percent of conservatives didn't even vote in 2008 because we had no candididate to vote for. i did end up voting, but not for McCain....don't freak, not for Obama either.

Where were all you Dems talking about thsi need to moderate when you guys ran a liberal against lieberman in his race? You forced Lieberman out and made him run as an Indy to win. How is that any different at all than whats happening in NY 23? The GOP and conservatives want a person who actually supports the party platofrm and beleives in conservative values...how is that different than the Dems wanting a real liberal to replacce lieberman? Where was all we need people like lieberman to keep us in th center...we cannot move to far left, blah blah...there wa snone of that. All i heard was we need Lieberman out and a real liberal in there.

You Dems need to look in a mirror before you start throwing grenades at the GOP, for doing the exact same things your side does.

On a side note, I may have to recosnider my position on being a fiscal conservative. Tonight I found myself redistirbuting my kids' halloween candy into my possession for my own enjoyment. I confisgated everything from skittles to peanut butter cups....and I simply ignored there objections. So hmmmm, you libs might be onto something with this redistirbution of wealth thing....I actually enjoyed taking the candy and eating it even though they went around and earned it. So I think I might enjoy this liberal stuff....you guys are deifnately onto soemthing here.

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Xenobion:

Uhhh Liberman does not support any Democratic party platform. If you wanna say RINO, Liberman was a DINO. This really shows the Republican party Regan tent collapsing in on itself. Moderates are not allowed and only true conservatives can run. Well expect all moderates in blue and purple states to really have a hard time winning. This is a suicide march for Republicans. There may be infighting with blue dog democrats and liberals in the Democratic party but I have a hard time believing that Republicans can vote in a majority by castrating their moderates. If there is a checklist of issues to be a Republican expect many Americans not to vote on core issues in specific regions where moderates thrive.

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Cyril Washbrook:

@Stillow: the Democrats didn't nominate Lieberman and then put pressure on him to pull out as the Republicans did with Scozzafava. He was challenged in the primary election, which is a perfectly normal thing to do.

(A tidbit: it's worth noting that Scozzafava is actually more conservative than the average New York Republican.)

That said, as a non-aligned observer, I do note that many supporters of both major parties are - to varying extent - guilty of searching for ideological purity. I come from a country where there's rigid party discipline, so I find it refreshing when there you do get diversity within parties' representatives. And in my view, the Democratic Party is in a much healthier state because of its ideological diversity.

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tjampel:

@Stillow

If you're talking about the liberal base in the Dem party ONLY opposing Lieberman you're correct. If you're talking about the party establishment you're dead wrong. They supported Lieberman against Lamont all the way, and didn't do much for Lamont other than a few token late inning appearances when Lieberman ran as Dem for Lieberman in the general. Dems are too collegial to eat one of their own just like that.
On the other hand, the Republican establishment in NY handpicked Scozzafava over Hoffman because they believed she had crossover appeal (and she actually lived in the district too). Both they and the national party were pissed off that Hoffman ran at all, and condemned him roundly for it. However, once Club for growth sank 1 cool million into the race (in a cheap media market) and Hoffman's numbers improved, and Palin endorsed, the floodgates were opened to every other Repub on the right; they all lined up to endorse Hoffman.

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tjampel:

@Stillow
Ron Paul?

I am sure that you have a coherent and consistent conservative ideology and real convictions and do what's best for this country according to them. As a conservative you'd be looking to not increase the deficit from a surplus to 1 Trillion+ over 8 years and the national debt from 6 trillion to 11 trillion (all things Bush, W edition did)...yes with a lot of help from his friends on both sides of the aisle.

By the way I'm tjampel, not "you libs"; I consider people as individuals and respect them for being such. You're Stillow to me and unique in your analysis and approach.

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openid.aol.com/Rahmsputin:

I agree with Stillow that there's really nothing wrong with what happened here. Assuming Hoffman can win handily, it's smart politics for activists to try and maximize the benefit of controlling a heavily Republican district, even if that means going against the party establishment.

The centrists in this country aren't "centrists" at all. They're defenders of the moneyed interests of the status quo, be it out of laziness or genuine corruption. To that end, I don't buy the whole notion that running a more ideological candidate against a "centrist" really has anything to do with extremism as much as it does frustration with the status quo. If we were talking about a "radical centrist" like Bloomberg or Perot, someone who doesn't buy into ideological doctrine but still works to substantially reform the system, this would be different.

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Farleftandproud:

Screw everyone who thinks that NY 23rd is a referendum on Obama. My Gosh, this district hasn't gone Democratic since the civil war.

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melvin:

The gop will be absolete by 2016 because of the rise of the minority vote,by refusing to accept moderates the gop is going to get killed next year in the midterms,Melvin predicts on tuesday Mcdonell will win by 9%,Corzine will win by 2%,and Hoffman will win by 4%,but the gop next year is only going to pickup 8 seats in the House,but lose 2 more seats in the Senate all because of the gop moving to far to the right.

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Kevin Krooss:

Scozzafava Endorses Owens

This is getting interesting.

What will it mean if NY-23, of all places, goes to the Blue team?

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Bigmike:

Given Dede's level of support I am not sure her endorsement means much. I kinda smells like sour grapes.

Anyone trying to attach much significance to this race is grasping at straws. It does not mean much except in upstate NY. In the grand scheme of things it is 1 of 435.

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Bigmike:

IT, not I, kinda smells like sour grapes. It's a typo, not a Freudian slip!

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