10/20-22,08; 3,000 LV 2%
Obama 52, McCain 45
Posted on October 23, 2008 10:39 AM
Wow, looks like another great day of polling for Obama.
If Mccain was hoping to inch things a little closer as we head towards election day then he's moving in the wrong direction.
Maybe this IS what an old-man surge looks like? Do they make little blue pills for political campaigns?
Posted on October 23, 2008 10:41 AM
I figure if Rasmussen ever reaches +10 for Obama, that's when the political right officially will freak out. Right now it's more of the Kevin Bacon Animal House "All is well, remain calm!" barely controlled panic.
Posted on October 23, 2008 10:45 AM
Wait for it...
Boom will now claim the Rass isn't a reliable pollster and is just part of the MSM conspiracy to make prop up Obama...
Posted on October 23, 2008 10:56 AM
O + 50 in Ras is deadly. Unless that # gets down to 48 or 47, forget about it..
Posted on October 23, 2008 11:00 AM
Yeah Ras at 50%+ really makes it look like the Obama campaign has been successfully riding herd on the old mavericks guys.
Can't wait till they get him to the slaughter house on Nov. 5th and we can put and end to this sham once and for all.
Posted on October 23, 2008 11:04 AM
The question remains if the slight movement to Obama this week in Rassmusen is a trend or noise. Expect major crying on the Republican side if Obama goes to 53 tommorrow as this would be strong evidence of a Obama trend. In any case Obama's lead is just togreat to be overcome short of some extremely major event. Remeber 60% of voters will have already voted by election day. The number already voting grows daily and nothing happening now can change those votes.
Posted on October 23, 2008 11:07 AM
Rasmussen continues to get out what he puts in. Sampling advantage for Dems of 6.7%, lead now 7%. ID advantage based on polling in previous weeks so what Ras is telling us is where the race was 1/2 weeks ago.
On the other hand we have Zogby with Dem polling advantage of 2% has now shot up to +12 but Kos with an ID advantage of 9% shows Obama at +10.
Kos and Rasmussen are therefore very similar at the moment. I'm sure it won't last. We have a lot of polls sailing their own paths and sometimes they sail near to other polls on the way to quite different destinations.
Posted on October 23, 2008 11:12 AM
Hey, Northeastern Republican, you told us to watch Rasmussen and Gallup . Well Ras is obama +7 and Gallup is Obama +8.
I have to say that this picture fits much more with where we seem to be than the Big 10 or Quinn polls. Although if Obama does win the pop vote by +7 then he probably will be +5 up in Ohio.
Just remains to be seen whether Obama's absence at the end of the week will make any difference. But if the polls still show these sort of numbers it is likely that McCain will bring up Jeremiah Wright - maybe even replace Palin - something desperate. And I think then it will just firm up the numbers.
Posted on October 23, 2008 11:13 AM
Based on early voting numbers and these polls it appears that Ohio might be an easier road to hoe then Florida. Ras has leveled off. In hindsight it appears that the brief McCain tightening was GOP'ers coming home after his last debate performance last week. Combine the Powell endorsement, the 500 point dump yesterday and Sarah's clothing and that is what is pushing things back up.
Even the ever cautious Larry Sabato has pushed Virginia to the leans Dem category. This guy knows Virginia better then anyone. So right now O add's IA,NM, CO, VA, and OH, holds the Kerry states, game over.
Posted on October 23, 2008 11:21 AM
Designer suits from Neiman Marcus - $75,062
Manolo Blahniks and "accessories" from Saks Fifth Avenue - $49,425.74
Designer fashion items from Bloomingdale's - $5,102
Making sure a mentally handicapped, bat-**** crazy governor from Alaska gets nowhere NEAR the White House - PRICELESS!
Posted on October 23, 2008 11:36 AM
Don't pop your corks yet. McCain is inching closer in the respectable polls. He may run out of time. It does appear that repub senate candidates are feeling the lag at at the top of the ticket. The national trend will seep back into the state trends. McCain inching closer nationally will reflect in the coming state polls. This is still too close to call. McCain can still win this. The key is watching the polls taken after Powell's endorsement.
Posted on October 23, 2008 11:41 AM
This one smells about right, though the polls as a whole have really gone nuts over the last couple of days. Wacky mayhem seems to be the order of the day.
M2, I had to laugh at your Kevin Bacon comment. Just a couple of days ago, I used the same scene to describe Bush's preferred handling of any crisis on his watch.
Posted on October 23, 2008 11:42 AM
Rasmussen 2008 vs. Rasmussen 2004:
7-day Average of 3-Day Tracking Polls, 10/17-23 (10/15-21, 2004 in paranthesis)
Obama 50.6 (47.9)
McCain 45.4 (49.6)
Obama +5.2 vs. Bush +1.7
Obama is out performing Kerry's numbers by 2.7 points, while McCain is under performing Bush's numbers by 4.2 points. That's a 6.9 point swing in favor of Obama.
Obama's lead over McCain is more than 3 times stronger than Bush's lead over Kerry in 2004.
Posted on October 23, 2008 11:43 AM
I don't know how much I trust this poll. First of all "Rasmussen" sounds french to me (read: liberal). Also "Likely voters"!? might as well say "maybe might vote someday voters". Also also a 2% margin of error!? Come on guys! commit! Either you got the numbers right or you didn't! My guess is McCain will take New York and Win with 900 Electoral votes to 150.
Posted on October 23, 2008 11:51 AM
Why won't Obama admit that the surge is working.
52% in this poll says it's all but over. Not over yet, but so close.
Posted on October 23, 2008 11:57 AM
Excellent point, also if we look at the final RCP numbers, by battleground states in 04. They were almost dead on in margin and who won them. these next 12 days can't go fast enough!
Posted on October 23, 2008 12:05 PM
McCain is lame in the membrane
Posted on October 23, 2008 12:34 PM
"Maybe this IS what an old-man surge looks like? Do they make little blue pills for political campaigns?"
McCain's getting ready to do what Dole did after his loss to Clinton.
Posted on October 23, 2008 12:41 PM
Yes, McCain is likely to bring up Jeremiah Wright in the last week, but who hasn't seen those videos? It's almost impossible to change the trajectory in the last week anyway, but doing it with a stale subject? I can't see that having an impact.
Posted on October 23, 2008 2:06 PM
The current betting odds for off shore bookmakers generally show Obama favored by 7 to 1 up to over 9 to 1 odds. Just after the Republican Convention the odds were closer to 50-50 As of today most of the money bet is going for Obama.
2008 US ELECTIONS - Oct 23
2008 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PARTY TO WIN THE ELECTIONS $3000 LIMIT
$3000 LIMIT 6:00 PM
1091 REPUBLICAN PARTY - - +640
1092 DEMOCRATIC PARTY - - -710
also see intrade.com, bestbetting.com
So McCain is definitely a long shot now. So if you believe McCain is going to win. Go and bet those big odds (non US residents) Much better than the stock market for the near future.
I will keep my money as Obama will win.
BTW Ohio just went from tossup to leaning Obama.
NOTE this is not an inducement for US residents to to violate US gambling laws.
Posted on October 23, 2008 6:23 PM
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