Pollster.com

I imagine those throwing a fit over the other OHio poll are going to faint over this one.

Big sample, some details would be good. Especially as it is a Rep pollster.

Tybo - I'd say they come out in the wash. Quin, InsiderAdvantage, and Strategic Vision are all about equally accurate pollsters, and come out to a dead heat in Ohio.

I'm OK with those numbers.

Is it just me or are pollsters totally lost on how to poll the battlegrounds this year?

Talk about variety of polling. . .sheesh.

oh relax, all.

mccain is just having a good week. you dont honestly think the map is turning red do ya?

anyway, here's a laugh for everyone even if you are a diehard obamite.

the cartoon drawn by mike ramirez is so damn good you gotta get a laugh outta it!

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/ramirez/ramirez.htm

Clinton just predicted "Obama will win, and handily!"

i think the guy has lost his credibility,. i cant for a sec think why he is caving in to this prig unless to expand the official society of men who have publicly cuckolded poor hillary.

but anyway, predictions, nah, no one cares. obama had to seek immediate help because he's hemorrhaging. sadly, clinton is not a doctor he is merely a philanthropist now.

i'd love to be a fly on the inside wall of clinton's brain to find out what he really is thinking. but i think we all really know.

"but anyway, predictions, nah, no one cares."

Apparently you do or else why the emotional response?

A small point most of you probably missed. The RCP site says this poll was done 9/7 thru 9/9, not what it says above. If this is a bounce, not a permanent shift, then Obama still has a shot at OH.

Well, 3 polls showing McCain with a significant lead in OH and one showing him getting killed. I think this tends to put the lie to the Quinnipac Poll.

In each one of these polls I see a common theme, momentum for McCain.

Remember, the Quin Poll had Mccain leading amongst Independents by 4 points yet trailing in the poll by 5. That smacks of a bad sample demographic.

Here's the thing. last few days you have been reading about how people inside the Dem Power Circles are starting to freak out aboyt maybe losing this thing.

They aren't basing that on these polls. They are basing that on their internal polling which is telling them the same thing. Obama is in trouble.

NOBAMA
Keep The Change!

"Well, 3 polls showing McCain with a significant lead in OH and one showing him getting killed."

You mean the Ras poll? They had McCain ahead by 10 pts. in late July. Did you believe that one? And of those "3 polls showing McCain with a significant lead" are you including the InAdv internet poll showing McCain with a 1% lead? Weren't you the one dissing Rasmussen for their bad methodology a couple of days ago?

You are a cherry-picker, admit it!

boomshak - The Democratic power circles aren't the ones with internal polling. The Obama campaign, and specifically Plouffe is. And he's been pretty calm.

McCain lurched to a good advantage with Palin, but the Obama campaign has always shown an aptitude for the long game, and with 55 days to go, it's a long game. Plouffe was very open in calling the ABC poll with the huge women swing "simply wrong," so I would say he's still pretty confident.

For me, OH, like VA, is a straight toss-up. FL is a Republican lean that's hard to poll and could go either way. Colorado is a Democrat lean that could go either way.

Colorado is sufficient, but OH, VA, or FL sure would be nice.

OH (like NC) appears difficult to poll this cycle.

This Republican poll, taken at the height of McCain's bounce (the first three days after the RNC), has McCain up by just 4 points.

To its credit, this poll has a large sample of likely voters. But how does a Republican pollster determine who is a likely voter?

Biden visited OH this morning.

Obama is goiing to win Ohio, even in Southern Ohio I hear Obama is polling well.

They have had those DHL job losses and McCain ain't foolin as many people in the mid west as he Sarah Palin would like!

Sooner or later McCain is going to have to throw Bush under a bus or accept that he supported and still supports Bush's economic policies. Of course there is always the pig they have put the lipstick on it, It is still a pig!

Remember, the Quin Poll had Mccain leading amongst Independents by 4 points yet trailing in the poll by 5. That smacks of a bad sample demographic.

boomshak:
Did you know that Kerry won independents in Ohio by 19 points (59-40) and still lost the election. It is called partyid advantage.

SV took a poll of OH from 9/11-9/13 2004--soon after the Republican convention. It found Bush ahead in OH by 12 points. In fact, no OH poll in September 2004 gave Kerry a lead. See:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html

Hillary campaigns for Obama in OH on Sunday.

Punkkid:
Party ID has changed over the past two years, even in Ohio. Democrat advantage there now; of course, perhaps newly switched Dems will be reticent about christening themselves Dems.

On party ID switch:
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/773/fewer-voters-identify-as-republicans

konokwee:
That's exactly what I meant. I was just trying to say that with the PartyId advantage Dems can be ahead even when losing Indp by a few points.

This seems to be Strategic Vision's first Ohio poll and hence we do not have anything to compare it with, in terms of bounce. In the past SV has tended to lean republican, (which makes their lack of internals even more fustrating), but whether they do this year, I guess we will not find out until November. This is the fourth Ohio poll released since the end of conventions with the average being +1.75 to McCain. It will be interesting to see if McCain can maintain this small advantage (if it indeed exists) as the convention bounce fades.

@Boomshak
I did mention on the Quinnipiac thread that there doesn't appear to be any party id advantage in the quinnipaic poll compared to the rasmussen poll (and even less so with the Insider Advantage poll, but then again I have very little faith in the IA crosstabs). If you of some evidence that Quinnipiac has a greater party id advantage than the other polls, please share it.

quinnipiac is more reliable then this poll.. it has shown greater stability throughout its polling of ohio- ohio is gonna be tougher this year for mcsame their economy is in the ****ter, believe me when you cant pay the bills its hard to the lever for a republican! and just a sidenote rupert murdock predicted obama will win ohio