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OH: McCain 49, Obama 45 (SurveyUSA-9/12-14)

Topics: PHome

SurveyUSA
9/12-14/08; 692 LV, 3.8%
Mode: IVR

Ohio
McCain 49, Obama 45

 

Comments
RaleighNC:

Why no polling in SE Ohio in this poll? That seems rather bizarre. Unless SUSA doesn't think there are enough voters to sway the election one way or the other?

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boomshak:

OMG, I love SUSA! They are always right!

Lol, just kidding. I am impersonating a liberal. SUSA blows.

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rdw4potus:

They did poll SE OH. The detail shows that 5% of likely voters surveyed live in SE OH. So, 5% of 692...34 people. That subset is just too small to do any meaningful analysis with. Being off by 1 person is like being off by 3%...

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Bill A:

It seems surveyUSA loves to use TV stations to do their polling for them. Same as the Virginia poll.

Collecting an aggregate of TV polls isnt a good through poll. I think This poll and the Virginia poll can be tossed

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RaleighNC:

@rdw4potus...

Yes, I see that now. I just saw the column of * and thought that was strange. Thanks for pointint that out!

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PHGrl:

Mark & Co...

Could you start posting, when known, whether a poll/pollster uses RBS or RDD? (and if this is too much to ask for, if RDD-- cell phones included? and what proportion?)

SUSA i notice uses RDD- with reports of increased voter registration -- might RDD have an advantage over RBS?

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RaleighNC:

Actually, the last SUSA poll used a 5% sample from SE Ohio in their last poll and published the numbers which at the time were 56-38 for McCain's advantage. Why would they not use them this time? Hnmmmmmmm...

Last poll before this one which showed Obama up by 2:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b379f604-b136-4483-b19f-7f38a1a85f81

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boomshak:

Lol, I just read the article entitled, "McCain says Obama did not call Palin a pig!"

What utter BS.

That isn't what the article says at all. The article says that McCain thinks Obama did intend to smear Palin.

Lol, I've seen misleading headlines before but that's the worst.

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Jeff:

@ Bill A

To clarify, the TV stations are the clients. SurveyUSA does the polling and releases the results to them.

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Connor:

Hey Boomshak,

If SUSA is so "sucky," why does Nate Silver rate them near the absolute top as far as accuracy?

Cause he's a liberal propagandist?

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BLeigh82:

In the Dem primaries, SUSA was usually very, very good. Although, they had a lot of trouble in Southern states for some reason.

I'd say McCain is winning from any where between 1-5% right now if I had to guess.

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1magine:

Other than Morgan and Washington County - all of the SE (8 or 9 Districts) is dark blue. In-fact that is the majority of blue votes. Hard to imagine any poll of OH being remotely close with this area so under represented. If this is accurate polling - then BO's camp is smiling right now. This means they have made BIG gains outside the backwards "C".

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jatchwa:

You know, I think SUSA's formulas are nonsense, and yet their overall numbers always seem to add up. It's like, garbage in, garbage formula, good result. I don't know how they do it, but I have some faith in their results. The crosstabs always seem fishy to me.

The only pollsters I'm fully ignoring are Zogby's Internet ones and Insider Advantage. SUSA adds to the discussion, but I prefer others.

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djneedle83:

No more bull**** theories...

Remember Obama got trashed in the Ohio primary because of Southeast Ohio and those blue-collar workers. In Virgnia Obama won (largest primary victory) because of heavy African American support and liberal professionals. (Northern VA)


The major differences between Ohio and VA polling

Virgnia 18-34 (25% of electorate)

Obama 60% McCain 36% (refelects national trends)

Ohio 18-34 (23%)

Obama 53-40 (way-below national trend)


Virgnia

White (73%)

57% to 39% McCain

Black (19%)

88% to 11% Obama


Ohio

White (86%)

55%-39%

Black (11%)

88-11% (expect Obama to top 94%)

Ohio

Repbulicans - 89-7 (35%)
Dems 77-19 (44%)
I's- 45-44 Mccain

Dems enjoy 900k registration lead but SE ohio baby.. These cats gave Hillary 83% of the vote in the primary.

Virgnia

Repubs (33%) 80-17
Dems (37%) 87-12
I's (23%) 48-44 McCain

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HaloFan:

Have you Seen Zogby lately?

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boomshak:

Conner,

In VA, SUSA said there was a 17 point swing to Obama amongst Independents in one week. 11 point swing with men and a 13 point swing with those over 55.

I mean, c'mon. You need a MAJOR EVENT for that kind of swing and nothing really happened last week.

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HaloFan:

dont count out zogby

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boomshak:

Like the Spanish Inquisition, nobody ever expects Zogby...

:)

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HaloFan:

Telephone polls are more personal so one may have to count in the Bradley factor
However, Internet polls (zogby) are not personal at all.

Makes sense????

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djneedle83:

Survey USA

is AUTOMATED....

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djneedle83:

Survey USA

is AUTOMATED....

The only phone pollster that uses recordings...

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carl29:

"Last poll before this one which showed Obama up by 2:"

Yeah...that poll was back in June and it had a 12% advantage in party ID for democrats. Now, in September it has Democratic party adv. down to 9. But the number that really got my attention was the pro-choice vs. pro-life number back in June and now in September.

Back in June the % of pro-life voters in the poll was 43 vs. 54% of pro-choice, a 11% advantage in pro-choice. Now, in September it is 49% pro-choice vs. 48% pro-life, a 1% advantage for the pro-choice. Somehow this pool of voters look more conservative than the previous people back in June. Nothing again pro-lifers since I am one myself. This fact just underlines an ideological leaning.

In addition, I just wonder why the demographic composition has 20% of people 65+. The 65+ population in Ohio is less than 15%. In addition, back in 2004, people older than 65 were 12% of those voting. Whom do you think benefit with a pool that overestimate the 65+ population? Well, that seems to be the group in which McCain has the biggest lead 54% vs. Obama's 41%.

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Xenobion:

This state will turn to Obama as bad Economic signs like today where marked as polled under the top issue of SUSA's polling.

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faithhopelove:

Two polls of OH released today both give McCain a 4-point lead. It appears that McCain is currently slightly ahead (within the margin of error) in this Bush state. At this point in the 2004 campaign, polls showed Bush ahead in OH by 2-12 points. Kerry did not lead OH in a single September poll. See:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html

SUSA's internals show where Obama needs gains to win this state. He needs to increase his advantage among women (currently 4%). He needs to win more than 77% of Democrats (Clinton's visit yesterday and party loyalty may help him with this group). He needs to win Cleveland by more than 7%. All of these gains are quite possible. Kerry won Cleveland by about 30%. See:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/OH/P/00/epolls.0.html

The "Could Change Mind"/"Mind Made Up" numbers indicate that Obama's support is slightly more solid than McCain's support.

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HaloFan:

Ras. has this poll out today. I’ts fascinating.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/majority_of_voters_say_only_mccain_biden_prepared_to_be_president

wow wow. If this election is all about Obama he looses big time.

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carl29:

It was all about Obama; however, everyday this thing becomes more and more about Palin. I don't know if that is good or bad. Time will tell.

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carl29:

Guys...pay attention to this wording:

"Over half of voters (52%) say McCain’s running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, is not prepared to be president, but 33% disagree"

Bottom line: 52% of voters think that Palin IS NOT ready vs. 33% who think Palin IS ready.

However, back on September 5th, Rasmussen released a poll on Palin showing that 40% of voters thougth that she was ready to be president; however, that numbers is 33% today. She lost 7% in voters perception in 10 days.

Obama and Biden's numbers are the same as they were 10 days ago.

Now, what do you think could have made people re-think Palin in the last 10 days? My opinion: Rasmussen's poll released 10 days ago was taken in the high of the Palin hype, now people have calmed down a little bit and things are not so "clear" as they were. I personally don't think that she did bad in the ABC interview. I just think that it is normal for people to be excited when they meet a very likeable people for the first time; however, that first impression fades, and other things are considered as well.

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HaloFan:

Carl....
Your looking at the wrong side of the poll. (paylin is just the VP)

44% think that Obama is NOT ready to be predident. now thats a wooooow

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boomshak:

Man, that new 527 ad calling McCain a NUT because he was a POW has GOT to be making Obama cringe.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94640700

Obama better get out in front and condemn that or people will assume it came from him. Probably one of the rudest ads I've ever seen.

Lol, just when McCain's ads are lookin bad, one of Obama's "supporters" comes out with THAT whopper!

Thank you crazies on the Left! I love you!

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carl29:

Dear HaloFan: The only point I was trying to make is that up to now the Republicans had made this election about Obama; however, I have the sense that it is turning more and more about Palin.

At the beginning, Palin's presence was really good for McCain. Now, I don't know if that is the case anymore. Obviously that public perception about her is changing rapidly, see why I compare her numbers 10 days ago and her numbers now? Now, my question is, if people perception of her is declining at this rate, will she become a liability, instead of the asset she seemed to be at the beginning? Remember that she is running with a 72 year old man.

About Obama's experience. It is true that 44% think he is ready to be president vs. Mccain's 63%; however, that number doesn't translate into neither 63% of voters' support for McCain nor 44% of voters' support for Obama in Rasmussen poll. As far as I can see, those numbers haven't change for Obama and McCain in a long time. Remember that the majority of people supporting Obama are not doing it based on experience, but rather new ideas, direction, and change of party in the White House.

My point is that Palinmania has taken over Obamamania. Is that good or bad? It depends how people see her 6 weeks from now. Since now the Republican ticket seems to be all about Palin, people perceptions of her can either keep helping or start hurting the ticket. I don't know; it is just a thought. Remember..time will tell.

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brambster:

There's been a rush of polling newbs that tied in with the McCain convention bounce.

These people are adding absolutely nothing but partisan bickering. You know who you are.

At least if you are going to add a comment about a poll, do a little research first because many of the criticisms repeat misunderstandings that have been long-past cleared up.

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Xenobion:

Less "manias" please :)

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Tom:

Just a note to McCainiacs, if the VA poll is accurate (and it is the same people who gave you this poll), then McCain is in deep trouble. Assuming the Kerry map, and if Obama can turn IA and VA, than every other state becomes gravy since Obama will have more than enough to win.

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vandrop:

@boomshak

They got a fellow POW saying that just because he a POW, that does not give him any more reason to be president. Sure, he was a war hero. So... we should vote for him out of sympathy? Is that the gist? Personally, I agree, I think John McCain was a hero, but that doesn't fix the fact that his policies are wack and his temper is out of control.

He also points out how McCain has a volatile personality, which shouldn't be a quality of the president.

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Whitetower:

@Tom

The VA SurveyUSA poll isn't valid (and not because it shows McCain down).

The poll's validity is questionable because it surveys 900 adults, only 813 of which are even registered to vote, and only 782 who are identified as likely voters. To use a survey where nearly 10% of respondents aren't even registered to vote is unimaginable in a modern era of public opinion polling.

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No one is talking about the common sense and more then likely fact that McCain is going to lose a lot of male voters because he chose Palin. The Virginia SUSA poll bears out that fact. Obama is now tied among male voters in Virginia.

Palin is scarily uninformed on the issues and she is a far right wing conservative. I don't trust her. A Republican is a Republican and McCain and Palin are just 4 more years of Bush and Cheney. McCain and Palin never talk about economic issues, and they have no plan to get our country out of this war in Iraq.

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

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