Articles and Analysis


OH: Obama 49, McCain 43 (DemCorps-9/29-10/1)

Topics: PHome

Democracy Corps (D) /
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)
9/29-10/1/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Obama 49, McCain 43



See ya later McStunt!



Whoa -- this has just become a torrent of negative polls for McCain.



I live right next door to Ohio in West Virginia! lets at least get WV back in the toss up column!!


Adrian B:

Cripes!!!! It's all turning blue.

This is probably an outlier - but the outliers from last week are this week's mid-points.

I still think it will be close OH but even if it's only half this lead on election night it's all over.



Nah nah nah nah, nah nah nah nah, hey hey hey goooodbye....

Can't wait to go to PA next week. I'm going door to door outside the 'T'.

My wife's at home making calls into OH.

Take - Nothing for granted.

Sydney and Barbi are pushing for the sympathy - its not fair vote. I don't care how many commentators and pundits have buried these guys - nothing is over yet.

Keep an eye on reports that ground units in Iraq and Afghanistan have joined mountain forces in an all out last minute push to find OBA. Not sure if they're trying to rescue Bushy's legacy or Sydney poo's campaign.



Paint it Blue baby!



Mc Cain has so many states to defend now, I didn't even know what they are going to start by!!



If McCain can't hold both OH and FL, there is no drama, there is no nothing. It's game, set, match. If anything above 5 holds up to Edlection Day, there won't be much suspense. However, expect some buyer's remorse and those polls to tighten up. And of course, even if McCain can end up holding both, Obama has like 75 different paths to 270. McCain does not. If these + Obama spreads hold up into next week on FL and OH, McCain will basically have to live there, and hope for the best everywhere else. He can't win without carrying them both.



the floodgates have opened. The levees have broke. And McCain is powerless to fix them.



The smapling on here is very worrisome for McCain. 84% white. 62% over the age of 45. Mostly church-goers. The demogrpahics McCain can't possibly win without dominating.



Boom boom is probably in the fetal position suckling...



Obama should hold a massive rally in Ohio and Florida. Preferably on the same day that Palin will be in either or both states. McCain can be there too, but who cares?



Obama is all over FL and OH.. and has a plan to try to totally lock down both.. (his own October surprise of you will). You heard it here first.



Here is something odd. On this screen where I am typing now, Pollster.com shows Ohio still yellow:toss-up. But at Politics Home, which has an inset map "in conjunction with Pollster.com", Ohio is light blue.



I think if VA, OH and PA are leaning towards Obama, then WV must be sliding towards Obama too. There just isn't that much recent polling there. If anything, Rasmussen probably over-estimated the Republican vote there. I would guess that McCain is down to 2-3% lead right now.



"When troubles come, they come not single spies, but in battalions." That's what one of Shakespeare's characters said, and it seems to apply to McCain at this moment. But really, it's just that the polls of the battleground states are catching up with the national polls.

If Obama leads by 6.8% nationally, which is his lead in the current pollster.com composite, based on gazillions of current polls, then it makes sense that he would be leading by 6 or so in Ohio, which is traditionally the state most reflective of national trends. We should be expecting Obama to gain ground everywhere on the strength of the surge in his national numbers, and he is, as all of the recent state polls have shown. He's surging ahead in Ohio and Florida, putting Pennsylvania and Minnesota out of reach, making Indiana and Missouri very competitive, and even getting back into play in Georgia.

It's simply his national surge being reflected on the state level. And unless Obama's national numbers take a turn for the worse, he's going to continue to dominate the state polls.



Everyone relax. There is a lot of election left.



oooooouch !!!! it's all over mccsame



Cannot find previous Democracy Corps poll for this state to compare. Would not hang my hat on a significant lead for Obama on this poll, but rather acknowledge the sampling error of these small polls and look at the Pollster.com trendline. Ohio is still a SOLID toss-up.



Actually, there is NOT that much time left. Yes, there is 4 weeks till the election, but these polls will solidify in another 2-3 weeks. At best, that is all the time McCain has to turn this around. Even now, we are looking at him needing a miracle to with this thing. And we have yet to see the power of Obama's ground game in these states. We got a taste in Ohio's early voting. Obama supporters are flocking to the polls, not matter what you might hear in the media. It's not over yet, but the fat lady is beginning to stir.



I agree with KipTin, but would caution if we accept a National lead average of 7% as per Rasmussen tracker then a lead of some sort and possibly 6% is happening in Ohio.

There is a long way to go in this election.

However I have said repeatedly since June McCain is unelectable.



While we have a LONG way to go until Election Day, the list of states where Gramps and Barbie are playing defense continues to grow. With McLame's limited resources, I don't see how he can effectively defend them all: FL, OH, VA, NC, CO, NV, IN, MO, and NH.

If these trends hold, we're talking landslide.



I'll be on the ground in NH this weekend. Let's sock it to the GOP once and for all!



There's a new NC poll!

North Carolina Rasmussen
McCain 47, Obama 50




"Cannot find previous Democracy Corps poll for this state to compare. Would not hang my hat on a significant lead for Obama on this poll, but rather acknowledge the sampling error of these small polls and look at the Pollster.com trendline. Ohio is still a SOLID toss-up."

Other polls do have trendlines in OH and the trend is towards Obama. Recency is favored in comparing the same pollsters, obviously, and, when multiple pollsters are showing trends towards a particular candidate in both the horse race and the state race, it's foolish to ignore that information and just present an average of the past 20 or so polls, even weighted for recency.

At some point you have to acknowledge trends. We are starting (OK, admittedly we're not 100% in any comfort zone, as there's a degree of flux to all this)to see a stable set of data nationwide which supports this trend in OH.

fivethirtyeight.com shows McCain actually leading if you simply average polls and weight for recency, but, given the trends of the past few weeks he's shifted from McCain being +2.5 or so, trend adjusted, to Obama +3.7. If you simply talk about MOE and you're examining MOE for a combined ...say...10 polls it's going to be VERY low...duhhh. Imagine anyone in this forum (other than our most famous resident troll-glodyte) stating that, if the election is one day away and McCain is up by 2.5 for a month on Real Clear Politics that "it's within MOE...look at Gallup's MOE". What an absurdity.

It's also appropriate to look to how OH's past voting behaviors have comported with national horse race polling. In this regard OH has been pretty much within 2% of the national numbers, historically. The national race is undeniably trending Obama over the past 3 weeks, with the averages at O+5 to +6, at the very least. If we look at Ras and treat it as the most stable performer over time we see a solid +6 over the past week's time.

Therefore it's downright foolish to think that OH would be immune to this National trend. Even assuming that OH has particularly insular and parochial demographics (e.g. Appalachians in E and SE and quasi-southern in S)all we need to do is look at where these groups are trending. PA is trending Dem and one reason is that the W and SW PA is not holding up as strongly for McCain as it once was. WV is close enough for the campaigns to start running Ads. If you want to say "wait another week to confirm a real trend"...OK....I'll agree to that. S--t does happen, but state's almost always follow the nation in predictable ways, which can, in fact, be expressed as a projection.

Then there are the usual (librul) arguments regarding early voting, registration advantage, AA enthusiasm/likely turnout, and general enthusiasm for the Dem candidate. Not to argue any of them specifically but merely to suggest that all of these are in Obama's favor, to the extent that they are factors. McCain's not going to catch any breaks from these factors, however great they may turn out to be.

Lastly, who will prevail on GOTV and should we add a % or 2 or 3 for that? The combination of having a Dem Gov and Elections Commissioner, a favorable Supreme Court (composed of 5 Repubs and 1 Dem...bleedin libruls), and more field offices and volunteers should give Obama a slight edge. Repubs are very well organized in OH but I think they are up against forces beyond their ability to control at this point.



No crosstabs so cannot perform an analysis against 2004 demographics from exit polls. Having said that, the ideology breakout: Liberal 16%, Moderate 39%, Conservative 43% is much more conservative than the 2004 exit poll which showed 19-47-34. Conclusion based on ideology is that this poll actually understates Obama's lead.



Well qunnipiac had obama up 8 in this state, so i wouldn't completely dismiss this poll. If mcsame can't hold this state he is TOAST! No Ifs and Buts!


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