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OH: Obama 51, McCain 44 (PPP-10/4-5)

Topics: PHome

Public Policy Polling (D)
10/4-5/08; 993 likely voters, margin of error +/- 3.1%
Mode: IVR

Ohio
Obama 51, McCain 44
(10/4-5: Obama 49, McCain 43)

 

Comments
alankeyesisawesome:

you can't rely too much on polling, because you're seeing much more enthusiasm for McCain when it actually comes down to it...The real surge will come on election day, when citizens outraged over Obama's socialistic policies will go out to the polls in droves. Add to that the Bradley effect, and Obama is toast. America just isn't ready for a black president (besides Alan Keyes perhaps).

McCain will win Ohio by 5 points probably.

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straight talk:

Old poll! that lead is 10+ now!

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weallknowtheanswer:

It's not an old poll, they've got the date wrong at the top - that was the previous version. This one was polled from 10/21-23.

I thought you gave up, alan?

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brooklyn137:

Am I reading this wrong? Does it really say October 4th and 5th?

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Atomique:

@ alankeyesisawesome:

"you can't rely too much on polling"

Wait wait wait wait wait wait...

This coming from the person who, after a single poll came out showing McCain ahead by 2 measly points in North Carolina, exclaimed "BAM!!!!!
Take that Obama! You are going to lose!"
/blogs/nc_mccain_50_obama_48_rasmusse.html

Guess polling is only reliable when your guy is ahead, even if it's well within the margin of error, eh?

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DTM:

The new poll was conducted 10/21-10/23, and is available here:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Ohio_1024938.pdf

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alankeyesisawesome:

@Atomique

Well, Rass is a much more reliable pollster than PPP...fact.

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Atomique:

And if you think Obama's supporters aren't way more enthusiastic about their candidate than Palin supporters, you're wrong. And if you think the socialist argument is working, you're wrong. If you really think McCain is going to win, invest all your money in McCain stock right now on Intrade and you will have 6 times as much money in 11 days. Come on, put your money where your mouth is. And when you're broke, the Democratic Party will be there to help you out.

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Atomique:

And if you think Obama's supporters aren't way more enthusiastic about their candidate than Palin supporters, you're wrong. And if you think the socialist argument is working, you're wrong. If you really think McCain is going to win, invest all your money in McCain stock right now on Intrade and you will have 6 times as much money in 11 days. Come on, put your money where your mouth is. And when you're broke, the Democratic Party will be there to help you out.

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Atomique:

Just saying the word "fact" doesn't make it true. Evidence would be nice. PPP is a very respectable pollster.

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boom&KipTinSUCK:

alankeyesisawesome is an idiot whose words are not worth being paid attention of
I can't wait to be on Nov 4th and watch Sean Hannity's face on FOX
The clock is ticking

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Indiana4Obama:

Huge number for Ohio. I had to think w/ the numbers in Indiana and PA looking good that Ohio would follow.

I'd like to see Obama spend another couple of days in Ohio before election day.

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Jacob S:

It is over.

people.carleton.edu/~schakj
race-to-270.com

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alankeyesisawesome:

If Obama wins this election...I will be on the front lines crying "voter fraud" (ACORN)...we will have to form a human chain around the White House (so Obama cannot assume the presidency)...If that doesn't work I will have to support Sarah Palin for a 2012 presidential run...I still believe McCain can win but he really F$&*ed it up.

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MsJohnson:

Hmm. Maybe it's a secret surge? Black ops 'n such.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

This is great news....for John McCain!

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DTM:

By the way, it is amusing to me that just a few days ago this would have counted as huge polling news (Obama over 50 and up 7 in Ohio)--but then those big Ohio numbers from Suffolk, Quinnipiac, Big Ten, and InsiderAdvantage came out.

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billwy:

I'm not sure what's up here. I am really disturbed. How are Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen so different? I know MD has shown McCain doing better often, but only by a few points. And frankly I find Rasmussen fairly reliable.
No way is Obama up this big in Ohio, not even close. I'd believe he is winning, and 7 is closer than Quinnipiac was earlier this week, but I refuse to believe this. I'll admit I'm wrong if election day proves otherwise.

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Indiana4Obama:

The point is that recent Ohio polls look good for Obama. Ohio suddenly is looking better than Florida, though both will surely be close.

My guess on where Obama spends that last 8 days after travelling to CO/NV/NM this weekend:

Mon: MO
Tues/Wed: Fl
Thurs: NC
Fri: VA
Sat: OH
Sun: OH/PA
Mon: CO and VA (election eve rally)

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Atomique:

The American electorate is in the tank for Obama. John McCain lost because of George W. Bush, because of Sarah Palin, and because he lacked a consistent and coherent message for his campaign. Obama picked a great VP, he remained steady during the economic crisis which he predicted, he's kept to the same message he's been hitting since he started the campaign, and he's running in a year that the American electorate is thirsty for change and Democratic registration is way up. And change is a-coming at last.

But we need to keep donating and volunteering, folks. This thing isn't over yet!

Obama/Biden 2008
Yes we can! ¡Sí se puede!

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boom&KipTinSUCK:

@Indiana4Obama

Yeah I also think on Monday Nov 3th He will be either in CO or VA but both would be better.
If he campaigns in OH/PA the day before he could easily fly to VA the next day and hold a rally till around moon and then fly to CO for an evening rally

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The Dude:

Say it ain't so Joe:

http://www.stamfordadvocate.com/ci_10806832

>

That's some funny sh*t there Joe.

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colivigan:

Rural voters are moving to Obama.

http://www.ruralstrategies.org/projects/tracker/2008.3/

This helps explain the current trends in Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri. The rural parts of those states are no longer canceling out the population centers.

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Indiana4Obama:

For some reason I think he'll hold his election eve rally in VA. But I also think he'll want to get back to CO one more time, so it could be there as well.

The election eve rally will be late (past 10 or 11) which would give him plenty of flexibility to do both CO and VA if he desires.

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zotz:

Why do we need to see a two week old poll?

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OneAngryDwarf:

Ok not to get ahead of ourselves here but this is a polling site and I would like to take a straw poll about the best reactions from a Fox News anchor.

A: Hannity goes completely bonkers and kills Alan Colmes on air after the election. He later claiming that Mr. Colmes a communist plant inside Fixed News and that it was his patriotic duty to protect the country.

B: Bill O'Reilly goes on air wearing only a loofha, some rubber gloves and a slip and slide. He later claims that the he was only acting according to the new era of hedonism which was obviously ushered by those pinheads over at the Democractic Party.

C: Glen Beck invites Michele Bachmann on his program to talk about secceding from the union to form a new "American Theocracy" where they can elect reasonable people like Anne Coulter and Dick Morris to govern them.

D: Joe Scarborough continues to be a whining little gut-weasel and no one notices, because nobody watches his show anyway.

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joethedummer:

lanslide !


go go obama , go go obama!

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sunnymi:


@zotz, the poll from PPP is current and can be seen here:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Ohio_1024938.pdf

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zotz:

sunnymi-
thanks. I wish the fact checking was better here.

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boomshak:

Another bullsh*t poll from PPP(D). Has a Republican ever lead at any time in any PPP poll?

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boom&KipTinSUCK:

@boomSTUPID

"Another bullsh*t poll from PPP(D). Has a Republican ever lead at any time in any PPP poll?"
yep
PPP (D) 09/13 - 09/14 1077 LV 3.0 44 48 McCain +4 (OHIO)

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zotz:

Quit crying you little baby!

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kerrchdavis:

lol @ pathetic boomshak.

landslide baby.

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kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

go back to your trailer park boomshak. Your mom will make you feel better.

Its almost over. 9 days baby!

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billwy:

An interesting point also would be that this poll shows a remarkably stable race +1 from their last poll.
I don't know, I am exasperated with all of these polls...they don't make sense to me anymore.

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NoMcSame:

I hope Obama wins but I'm afraid that racial prejudices will dominate the ballot box and that Obama's campaign (all Democrats are) won't be as adept at turning out democrats as Republicans are at turning out Republicans! For example, There were 300,000 more Democrats than Republicans in Florida in 2004 yet Bush won Florida by 380,000 votes because Democrats, despite their registration edge, didn't turn out!! Why? Because Republicans have a special computer program or database that allows them to micro-target voters and get them to the polls! I would be able to rest easier at night if Obama had a program to turn out every single Democrat registered or at least the unreliable Democrats who don't always vote, but when they do, vote Democratic!! He should turn out UNreliable Democrats now during early voting so the die hards or partisans will vote on Election Day and he'll win!!

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kerrchdavis:

@NoMcSame

There was an article posted about a month ago by Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com. Obama does have that same level database (the first time a democrat has had one). Another way this year is different.

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boomshak:

SOME MORE CRIMINALS SUPPORTING OBAMA:

Death Threats Sent to Pollster

After releasing this morning’s numbers showing McCain ahead in Ohio and Florida, the Strategic Vision polling company received several death threats through the contact e-mail on the company’s web site.

David Johnson, the CEO of Strategic Vision, shared the messages with National Review Online.


One of the messages stated:

My goodness, your polls stinks. There are 3 polls that have Obama by double digits and only yours has Obama down. WOW!. How come your poll is the only one giving Palin high favor ratings? I think you nee dto be careful tonight when you get in your car and might want to check underneath your car. SCRAP YOUR IDIOTIC POLLS OR ELSE!

Another stated:

A poll that gave Sarah Palin and Barack Obama the same favorability rating is wrong off the bat. Be careful going outside tonight because you might not see tomorrow.

A third message stated:

Why would your presidential election poll results be so drastically different from every other reputable poll taken over the same time period? Are they that dumb or are you guys that smart? Smart guys wind up dead.

The company has contacted the FBI and appropriate authorities, Johnson said. There was, thankfully, nothing in the messages that indicated that the sender had actually sought out the location of the company or its employees. Johnson noted that while the messages came from different addresses, they all came within a short period of time, and that it was possible they were from the same person.

Johnson said he’s not fearful, but taking appropriate measures.

“It’s probably just a bunch of nut cases, but this is first time we’ve ever experienced something like this,” Johnson said. “It’s highly, highly unusual. We get messages in the vein of 'your numbers are wrong, the other guy's numbers are right' all the time. But this has never happened before.”

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Publius:

Five weeks ago some people were asking why, with all that's happening in the US, Obama isn't up by 10+ points. Now he is and the polls are a fraud? Please.

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kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

your mom needs you boom. go help her.

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TuftsPat:

1. Those people are disgusting.

2. Strategic Vision is disgusting for releasing those emails for two reasons:

- It can lead to copy-cats who know their words will get out if they do the same thing.

- It is partisan by making all Obama supporters look like radical nuts.

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MileHigh:

@Indiana4Obama-

CO has mail-in and early voting. I think over 1/3 have already voted, myself included. I wrote in Boom for President, because he's my hero. If VA doesn't have early voting, his time would be better spent there. Maybe he could hit OH again. I'm still worried about FL. I really want that one bad. I guess I'm still pissed about 2000.

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Eddie:

SOME MORE CRIMINALS SUPPORTING MCCAIN:

Bush Votes Early For McCain
President Bush, who has been rarely seen on the campaign trail, cast his ballot for GOP presidential nominee John McCain.

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Nekrotzar:

I was really glad to see Bush vote for McCain. With all of the Republicans recently endorsing Obama, I was afraid Bush would be next (which would pretty much hand McCain the election).

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political_junki:

@boom:
"Has a Republican ever lead at any time in any PPP poll?"


YES:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Ohio_9161.pdf

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zotz:

Eddie-
SOME MORE CRIMINALS SUPPORTING MCCAIN

Funny!
I vote for Eddie- for Best boomshak putdown of the Day!

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straight talk:

The State polls are reflection the latest national polling! Look for Obama to be up by 5+ in FLorida in next weeks polls! McCain campaign is not fighting with each other for nothin! They know that there internal polling indicates that McCain is going down like the Titanic! Republican are not going to show up for McCain at the polls. He is only gettin the anti-obama vote!

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johncoz:

Though this is a good poll for Obama, the overall is far from clear. We seem to be looking at a big difference in turnout models from different pollsters, so I reckon it will be won or lost on the GOTV efforts on the day. (More so, indeed, some in other states.)

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zotz:

hey boomshak-
Maybe those people making threats were Republicans. You know sometimes people make false reports that they were attacked just to get attention and to smear the other side.

It has happened before you know.

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MNLatteLiberal:

boom, did the person emailing David Johnson per chance carve any initials in the note? Like an upside down "B"? Just curious. Cause that would be something.

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Pat:

NPR Poll: Obama Has 11-Point Lead In Swing States

October 24, 2008 · With 11 days to go until the presidential election, a new NPR poll of likely voters in battleground states finds that Democrat Barack Obama is pulling away from Republican John McCain.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96048563

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johncoz:

@straight talk

FL is a clearer case where the polls have actually tightened, and against the national trend. 538's projection is currently +1.9, which is far from comfortable. One would like to see the spread open up sooner rather than later.

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Rollin08:

"zotz:

hey boomshak-
Maybe those people making threats were Republicans. You know sometimes people make false reports that they were attacked just to get attention and to smear the other side.

It has happened before you know."

DON'T give him any ideas..

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Rollin08:

Boomshak is probably the equivalent of that girl who carved a "b" in her face.

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Rollin08:

Just kidding... : ) Actually he does do a good job of analysis from one very sided perspective.

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whoshotsam:

Rocky Mountain News poll - Colorado

O: 52
M: 40

Link

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political_junki:

could you share the link whoshatam?
thanx

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whoshotsam:

Just click on it, above. Right under the numbers.

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johncoz:

@whoshotsam

Tiny sample, but welcome nonetheless :-)

Should further dispirit potential McCain voters there, particularly coming from a local newspaper.

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johncoz:

@Rollin08

Yeah, boom's no hate-monger or racist, he's just a loyal foot soldier for whatever the GOP line du jour is, and that's okay. Can't be easy spruiking the chances of a candidate you don't like and a campaign you think is totally incompetent -- yet he perseveres.

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political_junki:

johncoz:
500 for CO is ok, relatively it is like a 1800 sample size for FL...
No wonder McSame is pulling out of CO.

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political_junki:

@johncoz:
"Yeah, boom's no hate-monger or racist"

No he is not. He is a very smart and funny guy. He is doing same thing I would do if my candidate was behind in polls and I was posting on a hostile forum (meaning most people supporters of my opponent). He is just getting a kick out of pissing people off and is feeling pretty popular since he starts with some bull**** and funny post and every single person feels responsible to respond to him :)

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straight talk:

wHATCH THE POLLS IN flORIDA AS THE NATIONAL POLLS TIGHTENED! THE POLLS TIGHTENED IN flORIDA! OBAMA IS GOING TO BE UP 5+ NEXT WEEK! McCAIN CAMP UNWELCOMED NEWS OF THE GIRL BEING ATTACKED BY A bLACK MAN STUNT IS GOING TO DRIVE uP AA SUPPORT!

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TuftsPat:

lol @ sol stern on with sean hannity. stern's a conservative at the manhattan institute, and they were just blabbing about obama and ayers, as if that was the voting issue for the election, and hannity says something like "can you imagine that someone who hangs around with terrorists could be president?" and stern just goes "it's about to happen" and it took back sean, who only goes by what dick morris tells him (which is that sarah palin has been a brilliant pick and mccain is up bout 3 points).

ps- i

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johncoz:

@political_junki

Sorry to be pedant, but the issue of sample size is quite independent of the population size sampled. But that's just sampling error.

Such small samples also create problems for for any demographic weightings you may want to perform, since the sub-samples are then so small there is a huge risk of reweighting completely unrepresentative sub-groups.

The way to get around the latter problem is to use an academic sampling method to ensure true randomness (hence dispense with weighting), but because of the follow-up requirements you are talking about a week or more to do a survey with such a sample size, which is simply not available at this stage of the election cycle.

This btw is what Wintrop/ETC just did:
http://www.scetv.org/index.php/winthrop/information/methodology_october2008/

-- taking 3 weeks in the field, but consequently producing results that are very little use at all given the change that was occuring in places like Virginia.

So at this point I look askance at any survey with less than 1000 respondents.

Maybe I am a pedant :-)

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Rollin08:

I think we should have an award for Boomshak once this is all done : )

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political_junki:

@johncoz:
I stand corrected. Thank you for the info :)

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johncoz:

@Rollin08:
I think we should have an award for Boomshak once this is all done : )

With a prize! Maybe a ticket to the Inauguration Ball for President Obama. That's going to be some event.

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johncoz:

Zogby

51.1 / 41.6
Support for McCain probably a touch too low, but Obama level on the money.

Zogby starting to sing a new tune however to whip up some interest in what by any measure are devastating figures for McCain:

"McCain's improvement in the poll, and the fact that there is still a notable slice of the electorate that is either yet undecided or soft in their support of one candidate or the other, indicates that anything could still happen in this race," said Pollster John Zogby.

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political_junki:

johncoz:
I would prefer a rssmussen O+3 to a zogby O+15.
Zogby is a moron

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

Who would keep visiting Zogby if he kept posting +12 Obama numbers for the next week. They will go up and down like a rollercoaster for the money.

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johncoz:

While I completely concur about Zogby's record, bear in mind that this is the home stretch, which is when pollsters need to get on the money and get serious. The five 3-day trackers are converging (standard deviation yesterday just 0.8).

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rami:

If BO wins Ohio, the election is done.

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Paul:

As others have done, I am asking for posters to be courteous and for pollster.com to pull posts which are not in keeping with the standards of this web site. There is room for differences of opinion, when expressed appropriately.

First, the link is incorrect, as we know. The linked file is .pdf not pdff

Second, the poll date is incorrect --- it is Oct 21-23, so it is new.

Third, McCain will not win Ohio with a deficit of 12 points with women and only winning males by 3 points. Also one has to remember that in most states, more women vote than men, Ohio not being an exception with the split in 2004 being 46-54 M-F.

Fourth, McCain will not win Ohio, or for that matter any state with a sizeable Black voting population (say 10% or more which Ohio is) without winning the White vote by more than few points.

Having said the above, Ohio's demographics works against a Democratic candidate. According to the charts at 538, you have to go back all the way to 1948 to find an election where Ohio votes more Democratic than Pennsylvania. In addition if we look at the last four national elections, and compare Ohio to the national vote for the Democratic candidate, the difference has been more Republican by 4 points, 2 points, 4 points and even up in 2004. If we can compare this election to the last four, Obama needs to win the national vote by 4 or more points to be safe in Ohio. 538 has the national vote at Obama +6. If that figure compresses due to regression to the mean to a 4 point lead or less, then Ohio would be very close and perhaps go to McCain.

In the final analysis, the two key states in 2000 and 2004 (FL and OH) would make no difference in 2008 if Obama wins VA and CO.

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wagthedog1001:

alankeyesisawesome:
"If Obama wins this election...I will be on the front lines crying "voter fraud" (ACORN)...we will have to form a human chain around the White House (so Obama cannot assume the presidency)..."


I hope this is just a joke, because if it isn't, it's probably the most immature take on democracy I have seen on this site yet and that's saying quite a lot. In a democracy one side wins and one side loses and we all go on from there. I hope after this election the public is not so divided the losing side will cry and whine and obstruct incessantly. The Democrats didn't do that after the 2000 election much to their credit.

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