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OH: Obama 57, McCain 41 (OhioU-10/12-23)

Topics: PHome

Ohio University
10/12-23/08; 611 Adults, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Ohio
Obama 57, McCain 41

 

Comments
Timmeh:

Wow...this is very good news for Obama.

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asquared:

I'm sorry, as much as I'd like to believe it, no f...ing way

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mago:

WTF? Oct. 12? Were the results gathered by itinerant minstrels and inscribed with reeds onto clay tablets? People really shouldn't releage this kind of stuff.

Raising people's hopes for no reason.

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Lechuguilla:

What is the track record of the "Ohio University" polls? The result here seems a little too strange to be believable. Maybe they meant "47" instead of "57".

Lech

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RfrancisR:

well great. now we know where OU had Ohio nine days ago. Sit on a poll much?

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sunnymi:


Just discard this poll for either of these reasons:
1. 611 Adults (not even RV's)
2. 611 interviewed over 12 days.

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bigsexyshaq:

I don't believe it, but it's much more reliable and realistic than Rasmussen or any of the polls on Matt Drudge's website.

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Jaq:

Well that one gets tossed into the outlier bucket pretty quickly. And yeah, how'd they deliver the results, by carrier pigeon?

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DTM:

It was a class project poll.

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sunnymi:

New Rasmussen Reports Partisan Weighting Targets: (for the remaining days before election)

39.9% Democrat
33.4% Republican
26.7% Unaffiliated


Compared to last week Dems lost 0.1%; Republicans gained 0.6; Unaffiliated lost 0.5%

So this is a case of Republicans who were calling themselves Independents donning their Republican colors in time for the election.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_rasmussen_reports_partisan_weighting_targets_39_9_democrat_33_4_republican

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jswarren:

This is way messed up. I"m going to pretend I never saw this.

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RfrancisR:

@ Jaq

Carrier pigeon? Carrier pigeons are fast.

I think they delivered it by tortoise on the grounds that tortoise beat hare.

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cinnamonape:

It was even a class project designed by the students. Hope they'll compare their survey with the pros and learn how they were supposed to do it!

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cinnamonape:

"The Ohio University students who designed and completed the survey, in an interdisciplinary program sponsored by the Scripps College of Communication and the College of Arts and Sciences, were also interested in where Ohioans get their information. Poll results showed 68 percent of respondents are paying attention or a lot of attention to media coverage of the election, with 60 percent watching television news, 15 percent reading newspapers, and 11 percent going online for information. For those who use the Internet, 73 percent have not received an e-mail from either candidate, 29 percent have visited Obama’s Web site, and 16 percent have visited McCain’s Web site. Twenty percent of those who visited McCain’s Web site were influenced in visiting the site by the choice of vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

The poll was conducted Oct. 12-23. The response rate was 9.6 percent and sampling error was +/- 3.9 percent with a 95 percent confidence rate. More Democrats than Republicans participated in the poll, with 44.6 percent Democrats, 36.8 Republicans, and 16.4 percent independents."

;-)

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ericsp28:

LOL
I hope they aren't going to be graded on accuracy.

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terrondt:

i am die hard for obama and all but this poll is so old and out of wack it is laughable. no way obama is that way ahead there. 8 points maybe but this poll is too damn old.

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Jaq:

@ RfrancisR

Well slow and steady does win the race after all.

I'm not giving Drudge any traffic; does he have any big pronouncements on huge changes in the race like last night, anyone?

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BarackO'Clinton:

This poll is ancient.

Still no way to spin it as good news for McOld.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@Jaq

Doesn't look like it.

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cinnamonape:

Re. The Rasmussen Weighting

"During the final days of Election 2008, the partisan weighting targets will be 39.9% Democratic, 33.4% Republican, and 26.7% unaffiliated.

For the preceding week, the partisan weighting targets were 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% unaffiliated.

In mid-September, the last weighting targets established before the financial crunch became visible on Wall Street, the targets were 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. Since that time, the number of Democrats has increased by 1.2 percentage points and the number of Republicans has declined by 0.2 percentage points for a net swing of 1.4 percentage points."

Yeah...not two Republicans in a thousand have become discouraged with the Party in power????

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freedomreigns:

Ummm.......No.

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political_junki:

If boomshack was here we all could have pretended we take the poll seriously, it would have driven him even crazier than what he was :)

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RussTC3:

Their last poll in 2004 had the race extremely close (50.1/49.2), but it wasn't taken over such a long period (three days--10/27-31) and involved LV (877).

The result probably lies somewhere within the MoE (which could be as low as Obama +8).

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RussTC3:

On second thought, I think the poll from 2004 I was looking at is a different organization (Ohio Poll/University of Cincinnati).

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Jaq:

@ political_junki

Oh, wow. I only just started posting here but even I had noticed old Boomshak. He'd have broken his caps lock key replying to this poll.

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political_junki:

LOL @jaq

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carl29:

I don't think that we have enough information from this pollster, sadly :-(

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garbuhj:

Fantasy. A very nice fantasy, but a fantasy all the same.

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zotz:

Oh ye of little faith... BELIEVE!
And it will come true!!

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DAZNY:

A whole bunch of Mason Dixon polls. He's up by 3 in VA, and also in CO, FL, NV and PA. He's behind in OH, MO and NC but no numbers available in the linked story other than the VA poll:

http://www.dailyprogress.com/cdp/news/local/article/polls_say_mccain_win_a_longshot/30594/

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fed:

If Obama is +3 in VA according to Mason Dixon is good news. He gained a point from their last poll

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PlayingItStraight:

Let's get real ...

The poll was conducted Oct. 12-23. The response rate was 9.6 percent.

I suspect there is a bit of a problem here. We really need to give some remedial education to some university political science departments before they go charging into this field.

Regardless who wins, I hope there will be some serious academic research that goes into how surveys were conducted. What response rates were etc. And what type of pollsters generated different response rates etc.

I also would like a look back at both the D and the R side to see who got paid by the campaigns and parties but managed to pass themselves off as public pollsters.

There is no way that if a group of pollsters are pulling random samples of the population that there should be this much variance.

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Boris_Dieter:

Well, if Huffingtopost.com is accurately describing the nature of the GOP campaign in these last few hours, McCain will have totally blown up whatever little history remains of McCain's honor. The scum and filth that McCain's folks are throwing up, hoping that somehow, some way the crap will stick somewhere.

It's infuriating, and I cannot imagine that a candidate now so undeserving would pull this out, and I am nervous, and despite the data I have this awful feeling in the pit of my stomach.

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PlayingItStraight:

I was referring to the OHIO U poll not the Mason Dixon polls.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

I don't think that article was referring to new Mason Dixon polls but lets see.

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iVote:

Just to show you how desperate the Republicans are, according to the pollster home page they are now trying to find proof that Bill Ayers ghostwrote Obama's memoir. I mean, this is pathetic.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@iVote

Yeah it's crazy how many different things they are trying. I guess they don't have much to lose.

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NW Patrick:

I did find a Mason Dixon poll up 3 in VA. This is a good result. Everywhere this pollster polls have slimmer leads for Dems than other polls, so +3 is great news. I don't however see ANY release on their website regarding other states so I'm curious where the previous poster got his/her info.

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NW Patrick:

DAZNY could you link your Mason Dixon #'s? Per their own website only VA Obama +3 has been announced.

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DAZNY:

Pro-America_Anti-America:

Perhaps, but this one looks new-ish:

http://www.pnj.com/article/20081101/NEWS02/81101015

o: 49
m: 47

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DAZNY:

The info I described is from this story, but it maybe referring to polls already released:

http://www.dailyprogress.com/cdp/news/local/article/polls_say_mccain_win_a_longshot/30594/

It gives no numbers for the non-VA polls.

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NW Patrick:

http://www.pnj.com/article/20081101/NEWS02/81101015

O + 2 in Florida per conservative Mason Dixon.

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change:

i think race will be a factor in Ohio, im sorry to say. Hillary smoked obama in alot of rural counties even though he had a lot of momentum going. He would need at least 95 AA turn out from Clark County

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DAZNY:

NW Patrick:

Also a net gain of 3 for O over their last poll.

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NW Patrick:

When ARG and Mason Dixon and RAS show an O lead in Florida I'm feeling good:)

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BarackO'Clinton:

Still no links on Drudge - must be bad news for McOldSpice.

Good night folks - see you tomorrow!

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PlayingItStraight:

food for thought -- watch the Post polls on Virginia late --

from So Political Report

In 1989, Doug Wilder (D), an African American, won the governorship of Virginia by a narrow 50.2% to 49.8% over Marshall Coleman (R), his white opponent. Pre-election polls showed Wilder would win by a larger margin. A late October survey for the Washington Post gave Wilder 52%, Coleman 37%. In the Mason-Dixon poll taken about the same time as the Post’s survey, Wilder had 48%, Coleman 44%.

Under a similar dynamic, Obama would narrowly lose Virginia. Especially since many suggest remaining undecideds in VA are not NOVA and are predominantly white voters. Almost a carbon copy 20 years later. Time to worry a bit???

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NW Patrick:

change yah so the last 10 polls are wrong? LOL

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NW Patrick:

change so I'm curious..how is Obama so competetitve in Iowa, ND, and several other states with TINY AA populations? Give Americans a little more credit.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@PlayingItStraight

It depends how much AA turnout he gets to negate whatever happens.

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saywhat90:

if mccain wins because of the so called bradley effect then i will no longer have respect for this country. to me it is rascist just to be talking about the bradley effect as a way for mccain to win. it would mean to me that i live in a country that still doesnt see blacks as viable member of it. and the saddest thing about the bradley effect is that the people who caused this phenomenon didnt have the courage to say that they didnt vote for bradley because of his color.instead they lied and said they did.

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Boris,
Pour yourself a glass of wine, sink into your favorite chair and pull yourself away from cable news for a bit.

Obama has weathered the full barrage of republican scat-slinging.

Its gonna take WW III to change the momentum at this point, and maybe that wouldn't even change the outcome. McCain's not going to turn this around in two days. He's chained himself to that dim-wit from AK and now he's got to live with her.

Time to enjoy the show!

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fed:

AA turnout in Ohio will be HUGE. The after church voting program has been a success, more than we could ever imagine. Reports look great on Dem early voting turnout in OHIO

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1magine:

If MD and Ras show O leading in Ohio and Fl on Mon night I will sleep well for the 4 hours before I head out to monitor polling places.

2 days left - - eoither all pollsters will drastically change their predictions in the next 48 hours, risk an epic failure of american polling, or have seen sufficient raw data to believe that the race is not very close.

Nationally - JM-46.86% BO- 52.21 B/N -

BO- 307 JM-221

BO = Kerry +IA, CO, NM, NV, VA, OH. (Does not hold NC, IN, Fl, or MO)

No surprises.

Senate 58 (D)Chambliss holds on. Dole loses.

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Schill:

I have a hint that Zogby has no good news for drudge--just a hint--it did not make drudge coverpage with the red mark

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saywhat90:

something wrong with zogby

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@1magine

Is MD even doing any more on Monday?

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saywhat90:

they must be waiting for daylight savings to post it

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iVote:

What are the Zogby numbers?

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sunnymi:


@saywhat90

Me thinks the same :-)

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NW Patrick:

Obama gains .7 on Zogby to 5.7 :)

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saywhat90:

nope obama is up to a +5.7 lead

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Schill:

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: One Day Is Not A Trend: Obama Holds His Lead
Obama 49.5%, McCain 43.8%
Released: 11-02-2008

Subscribers can login here: https://interactive.zogby.com/clickon/index2.cfm

Next Release: 11-03-08, 1:00AM

UTICA, New York -- After a strong day of polling for Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Friday, Democrat Barack Obama experienced a strong single day of polling on Saturday, retaining a 5.7 point advantage that is right at the edge of the margin of error of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll. The race has remained remarkably stable down the stretch, this three-day rolling average poll shows.

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

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iVote:

Zogby:

O- 49.5 (49.1)
M- 43.8 (44.1)

Wow, Obama must have had an insanely good polling day yesterday to have increased after McCain supposedly having the lead the day before.

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fed:

LOL Zogby is nuts

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sunnymi:

Zogby National tracking

Obama - 49.5%
McCain - 43.8%

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: One Day Is Not A Trend: Obama Holds His Lead

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1627

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

"Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%."'

OHH snap! Zogby is the worst pollster I have ever seen.

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RfrancisR:

How bad is Zogby???


McCain Surge! McCain Surge!


Then today's polling had Obama up 10.


Now it's a 5.7 Obama lead.

Zogby Should Retire

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NW Patrick:

Well once that Friday result drops off Zogby's average maybe Monday it will be interesting to see his final result. I'm going to guess O +6 by Tuesday morning.

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sunnymi:

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by 38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

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saywhat90:

i have a question though. mccain had a 1 day polling where he led 48 to 47 right and obama lead dropped roughly 2 pts. now barack had 10 point lead in one day polling today andhe gains only .7 pts. what gives?

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

Notice how he is trying to cover himself now talking about 3 day averages and one day doesn't make a trend. Why in gods name post the daily numbers then fool?!

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asquared:

So Zogby says he polled +1 M yesterday and +10 O today. Um...yeah...right....he's got some suspect methodology going on here

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Thatcher:

Zogby also is "calling out Nate @ 538" ... that's not good ...

A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health.

I'm sure that's in response to Nate's blog (Nate is the baseball data guru) on Friday http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/trick-or-treat.html

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RfrancisR:

John Zogby, today's worst pollster in the worrrrrlllld!

Apologies to Keith Olbermann.

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jeepdad:

Dick Morris was on Hannity/Colmes tonight talking about a "monumental shift" in Zogby. Ha.

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NW Patrick:

AS Nate said beware of ANY Polls sampling last night. It was HALLOWEEN. Jesus. LOL Senior citizens were home.:)

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hou04:

Zogby is such a fraud! He purposely created his "McCain outpolling Obama" last night just to get some attention. His polls are a joke and swing like crazy. If I were him, I'd shut up and not even tell people what ridiculous numbers he claims to be polling. 48/47, then 52/42 (which is in line with Gallup). He knows Gallup is the standard and now he is trying to save his butt.

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sunnymi:


@saywhat90
Last 3 days might have been: O+10, M+1, O+8

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@Thatcher

Consider how much his polling is garbage I am surprised he can call out anyone at this point. This is humiliating for him to show such shifts and hype up releases.

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fed:

Ok Obama had a 1o point lead in one day polling. Hint Hint. Zogby will have Obama with 8 to 10 points on Monday night

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iVote:

What I don't understand is that Obama is expanding his lead in most of these tracking polls, yet state polls (PA in particular) continue to tighten. I still don't fully believe in the state poll lag, but the opposite did happen last week with McCain too. Hopefully there will be some good state polls released tomorrow.

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Schill:

Zogby was too obvious the day before in its partisanship, he got caught making news now he is blaming clearly 538 site for catching his bias, anyway this does not make any sense at all--from 47-48 to 52-42 in one night it is like two diferent countries.

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sunnymi:

A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

HaHa....This is a classic case of someone preaching restraint after causing a commotion....he is the one who has been raising a ruckus about a single day lead in polling and now asks bloggers to calm down!

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saywhat90:

but then wouldnt return to 7 points in that case sunnymi?

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hou04:

How low is Zogby going? Taking shots at Nate Silver??

How classy and professional! Geez...

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political_junki:

Zogby is a hack, charlatan and attention w..re.

I am 99.99999% sure he wont even poll in the last 2 days. This is what he will do:

Cook his numbers to be as close as possible to average of Rassmussen and Gallup. and then he will claim he had it right.

I hope by next presidential election his stupid firm will have gone bankrupt :)

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Jaq:

So wait.

Zogby is saying his three day numbers for Obama were , if memory serves, O+ 7, M+1, O+10?

What the hell kind of sampling is he using?

And, really, NASCAR fans, a demographic? Hey, Zobgy, what's the split on the NBA fans?

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saywhat90:

i personally think he want this race to seem close to keep the gop base enthused. they havent exactly been running to the polls

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hou04:

NW Patrick:
Well once that Friday result drops off Zogby's average maybe Monday it will be interesting to see his final result. I'm going to guess O +6 by Tuesday morning.

OBAMA IS ALREADY +6 TONIGHT!!! :)

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sunnymi:

saywhat90, you said "but then wouldnt return to 7 points in that case sunnymi?"

O(+10) + M(+1) + O(+8) = 10 -1 + 8 = 17

Average = 17/3 = 5.67 = 5.7 = O+5.7

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RfrancisR:

@Jaq

I won't be satisfied unless he gives us the split on the Major League Soccer fans.

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Jaq:

@RfrancisR

"Obama's lead amongst fans of Australian rules football increased 13.5% while McCain's lead amongst fans of checkers increased 17.8%"

Zogby's poll breaks down in some really odd ways.

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hou04:

Zogby says Obama leads African-Americans by 88.

Riiiight.... he leads AA by 94 AT LEAST.

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AJ:

@Ivote

You got to remember that for whatever reason, bunch of the recent state polls come from republican leaning pollsters. Mason-Dixon suddenly came alive, as well as Strategic Vision. Rassmusen has always been on the McCain side of averages in state polls, and those are the companies that issued bunch of polls lately.

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tjampel:

Well, when you eat a sausage you don't really want to know what went into it, as long as it tastes good and we don't get sick afterwards. For whatever reason Zogby's melodramatic dailies have suddenly/swiftly erased the anomaly which produced some stickiness in republican briefs, with a daily that's guaranteed to bring a smile (and a slight bulge?) to Dems. Is this serious professional polling? uhhmmm...just compare with Ras...it's like comparing a skittish and vocal Irish terrier with a seeing eye dog. Zogby IS fun to read at least :-)

the end result...his poll has moved back to the near the center of a narrow band of what I consider to be credible results (5-7 points). So...if you're for Obama, just eat the sausage and don't ask too many questions....this is Zogby after all; at least we sleep a little better at night when the Drudge siren is quiet

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RfrancisR:

@Jaq

But what are Sarah Palin's favorables among Strongest Man fans?

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tjampel:

AA's prefering Obama over McCain 94 to 6 is an 88 point lead. Zogby is all over the place in many areas but that particular result sounds reasonable to me

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mirrorball:

Wow, hats off to Zogby. Tonight he says he never said one-day makes a trend. True, the word "trend" is nowhere to be seen in yesterday's write up. But here's what he said after McCain's strong single day of polling.


Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Is McCain Making a Move?

Obama 49.1%, McCain 44.1%

UTICA, New York—Republican John McCain made a small gain against Democrat Barack Obama and has pulled back within the margin of error, now trailing Obama by five points, 49.1% to 44.1%, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.

Almost two days worth of the polling—or about half of the current sample in the three-day rolling poll of likely voters nationwide, was conducted after Obama's 30-minute commercial aired Wednesday evening. There is no evidence it helped him, as he has dropped 1.1 points in the last two days, while McCain has gained 0.8 points during the same period.

Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."

Hold on, indeed.

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Jaq:

@RfrancisR

Still polling around 82% favorable, but a more key demographic is "fans of the American Gladiator 'Turbo'" which saw an increase of 11.5% towards the McCain/Palin ticket.

I honestly was staying up to see what kind of numbers Zogby had today. With that seen, I'm going to bed.

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fed:

@ saywhat90:
Today a pundit (conservative) said that he feared that the final election results will be the same as the early voting results. He argued that in NC for example, where early voting has been going on for several weeks, The ratio of Dem to Gop voters has been unchanged through all this time. There are very little signs that the republican voters are going to come out to vote like they would like them to.If enthusiastic democrats would have decreased as time went by, and republicans had gained in the last week, the race could have been close.
But it has not happened

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Ockham:

I can't believe what a patronizing ass Zogby is being in his latest update.

Can anyone explain why we should be paying any attention whatsoever to such a schizophrenic tracking poll?

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saywhat90:

@fed

i have noticed that too. but all the same it may just be that republicans are still mulling over whehter to vote and will eventually do so. but maybe not since nate had a picture of one of the 72 hour republican campaign hqs and it was deadly silent.

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Frenchie_75:


@fed

I wouldn't be surprised if this conservative person you mention is correct...if you look at oregon in the surveyusa polls, obama keeps the same edge with 50% or 70% of those who have already voted...the African Americans are voting at a higher and steady ratio but no pollster is really changing their turnout models...i dont think anyone can predict what will happen tuesday

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The Dude:

I for one will never look at zogby.com again. It's so obvious this guy is a quack - why reward him by driving up his page counts. Same thing with Faux news. All it takes is one to make a difference.

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Thatcher:

Actually - I think we just caught Zogby in a lie ... but I need someone to verify my math ...

Today's Obama/McCain numbers 52-42
Yesterday's numbers were O-M 47-48

Would someone go back to October 26, 25, 24 and figure out those daily numbers for Obama using the 3-day rolling averages Zogby's been posting?

Because he stated on October 26 release that Obama's daily numbers were: 49-50-54 for those three days (in the same order as I posted above)

Do you guys get anywhere near that if you do the math? I get 49.7-52.5-46. Which means either:

A) He's doing creative bookkeeping to keep his name in the press
B) He's mistaken about his dailies

Or some such other.

Please help. I hope I am wrong. It's 1 am here and I hope I just fowled something up to come to this conclusion.

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fed:

I know, we can expect anything to happen, a very close race or a huge landslide

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

Intrade showing McCain went from 16 to 13 today. It would be great if he hits a single digit just one time before the election.

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saywhat90:

yeah im betting that republican enthusiasm isnt that high but you never know

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RussTC3:

I think they're referring to old polls in that write up that has Obama up by three in Virginia with Mason-Dixon.

The Virginia M-D poll is probably new, the other states mentioned are older polls. As far as I can see, they haven't released new polls for Missouri (last was McCain +1), North Carolina (last was a TIE) or Ohio (last was McCain +1).

The Virginia one is a +1 improvement for Obama.

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fed:

Another point that I found interesting is that the Republican party is investigating what happened to many of their absentee ballots in Florida. Very few had been returned, they wonder if something fishy was going on. They refused to admit that maybe people just did not care to vote

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political_junki:

It is really disappointing that still all these polls are two way races not 4 way. It would be really interesting to see how Mason/Dixons's
(O47 - M44) will change with Barr and Nader on the ballot...

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hou04:

@ Thatcher

Hey Thatcher... we need the one-day polling numbers for Oct. 30 to figure out if Zogby is lying.

It turns out he never released that one-day polling # for Oct. 30... In his Oct. 31 release (that included 10/29 to 10/30), he only said that the race was "stuck in neutral" and gave the 3-day average, Obama up by 7.

____________________

Frenchie_75:


well republican enthusiasm is not high i can tell you. my conservative friends are voting for McCain but they barely speak highly of the guy. They are upset with bush high spendings in the last 8 years...somehow i think they want change as well...but i doubt they would wait hours or miss work meetings to cast a ballot for the guy...i live in MN

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Thatcher:

@hou04

Yeah, but he gave us 2 of the 3 days ... isn't a 3-day rolling average:

(a+b+c)/3=average

a=today
b=yesterday
c=day before that

so to solve for "C" ...

average*3-a-b=c

And the just progress backwards each day?

Yeah, we may be off a 10th here and there ... because he states integers for the dailies, but rounds the 3-day to 10ths. but still - they would be close ... but what I am getting is they aren't.

And that's what I was looking to be verified

Thanks

____________________

mrzookie:

(cross posted)

Re: Muhlenberg MC Tracker.
Help me out here. Unless I'm misunderstanding the way it works (and I probably am), since the average day for most of the week has been O+11/12, they've got to be polling dead even or M+? for the last two days to get O+8, O+7 in the rolling average for 11/1 and 11/2. That's a scary thought.

What am I doing wrong?

____________________

Pat:

Zogby is so bad that he is predictable now. I knew for sure he would completely reverse his poll by tonight.

____________________

Thatcher:

@mrzookie

Since it is going down slowly - just means, most likely, the numbers coming in daily are slightly closer than the day rolling off -- using a 3 day rolling average as an example:

O+10
O+8
O+7
Average=8.333

Now roll in:
O+6 (which rolls off O+10)
+8,+7,+6
Average=+7

Now this is just one possibility of many ..

____________________

NW Patrick:

Mason Dixon did release 2 polls today.

O+2 Florida
O+3 VA

O Gained in both polls. This pollster has a historic R lean.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Early voting in Oregon is down 27% in "RED" Counties. Darn:)

____________________

mrzookie:

@Thacher

Oh,I thought this was a 5-day tracker.

These are the numbers just prior
10/27 10/28 10/29 10/30
53% 53% 53% 54%
40% 41% 42% 41%

The last 3 reported averages (10/31-11/2)were O+10,+8,+7. To get there I figure: 11+13+6?=30/3=10; 13+6+5?=24/3=8 and then 6+5+10?=21/3=7.

Have I got this right?

____________________

fed:

It is all mail voting, if it is 27% down in red counties that is it, it means that Rep are not voting, at least in Oregon

____________________

NW Patrick:

fed I live in OR. Just saying compared to '04 red counties are WAY down. I have a wierd feeling people are sitting it out on the right. Of course this is Oregon. 1/2 the state lives in Portland:) It's an oasis here. I have to drive to a suburb 20 min. away to see a McCain sign. I'm not kidding...I've never seen 1 McCain sign or bumper sticker in the entire city limits.

____________________

Lechuguilla:

mrzookie ...

O can still be leading, yet have a declining rate of lead. Ex: 58 to 42 = 16 pt margin for three day period; then, 55 to 45 = 10 pt margin for three day period; then, 53 to 47 = 6 pt margin for next three day period. In each case O would be 58, 55, & 53. He has a declining margin of win (16, 10, 6), but he still leads, even though his lead margin has declined.

Does that make sense?

Lech :)

____________________

fed:

Gas is too expensive to drive 20 min Just to see a McCain sign. LOL.

____________________

Lechuguilla:

The statewide polls are interesting. But the real predictor of who will win is the national polls. When the nationals have O leading by 4 points or more, he will, absolutely will, obtain the 270 EV needed to win.

Ergo, whether those 270 EV include Penn. or Virginia, or Ohio, or Florida, it really makes no difference, so long as gets to 270.

And if O is leading nationally by at least 4 points, he WILL win Ohio. That state almost always votes withing 1 percent of the national average.

That much I guarantee. :)

Lech

____________________

mrzookie:

@Lech

Got it. What really threw me was that I thought it was a 5 day tracker.

Thanks.

____________________

political_junki:

I have some PPP results for Obama that will be published later:
NC +1 (10/27)
VA +8 (10/25)
OH +7 (10/24)
FLA +1 (10/21)
IND +2 (10/21)
MO +2 (10/14)
AZ -8 (08/04)

____________________

Thatcher:

@mrzookie

I was just using a 3-day as an example.

Muhlenberg doesn't post it's dailies - just it's rolling average - so you can try to figure them out ... but can be difficult without knowning a few of the actual daily results.

just was trying to show you that your worry that McCain had to be leading in a couple of dailies for the rolling average to tighten wasn't necessarily the truth.

____________________

political_junki:

Sorry my mistake, I thought they are new releases, they are the same old ones. Very sorry :(

____________________

Ryan in MO:

FWIW, just some info on Missouri. I see a LOT of people starting to say Mizzou will probably stay red. In case you haven't heard, I was at the Obama rally in Springfield. At first it was suppose to be at he stadiuam at MSU. Then they moved it to one of the HS stadiums. Apparently someone thought Obama wouldn't get much turnout in deep red, conservative SW Mizzou. Well, talk about unprepared, they had to move the dividers where from what they thought would be big enough, and then started letting everyone in behind the dividers without going through the security checks. The estimated crowd sizes are 35 to 40 thousand. I don't think this kind of turnout in this part of the state would warrant anyone to say McCain likely has MO.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Lechuguilla good point. Check this out. People asking "Why isn't Obama further ahead?" Clinton won a LANDSLIDE with 5.6% of the popular vote.

Year / Winner / EV Margin / Pop Vote Margin

2004 Bush 36 2.4
2000 Bush 4 -0.5
1996 Clinton 220 8.5
1992 Clinton 202 5.6
1988 Bush 315 7.8
1984 Reagan 512 18.2
1980 Reagan 440 9.7
1976 Carter 57 2.1
1972 Nixon 503 23.2
1968 Nixon 110 0.7
1964 Johnson 434 22.6
1960 Kennedy 84 0.1
1956 Eisenhower 384 15.4
1952 Eisenhower 353 10.9
1948 Truman 114 4.5
1944 Roosevelt 333 7.5
1940 Roosevelt 367 9.9
1936 Roosevelt 515 24.3
1932 Roosevelt 413 17.7
1928 Hoover 357 17.4

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Lechuguilla:

Percent Deviation from the national Percentages, for 2004:

Virginia: R3.0 percent
Missouri: R2.6 percent
Florida: R1.4 percent
Colorado: R1.0 percent
Ohio: R .1 percent

The following states are more Demo than the nation as a whole. Therefore, Obama will win these states:

Nevada: D .2 percent
Iowa: D .8 percent
New Mex. D .9 percent
Wiscon. D1.4 percent
N. Hamp. D1.9 percent
Pennsylv D2.6 percent
Minn. D2.8 percent

Lech

____________________

political_junki:

Published: November 1, 2008

University of Virginia political guru Larry J. Sabato has some bad news for Republicans: Election Day is going to hurt.

A lot.

“The political environment could not be more toxic for Republicans,” Sabato said Saturday. “I want to remind you who are Republicans, the liquor stores are closed on Tuesday. Stock up on Monday.”

(Actually, Virginia’s ABC stores will be open on Tuesday.)

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama will almost certainly defeat GOP nominee John McCain, Sabato said. And it’s not likely to be a close race.

“Is there any way for John McCain to win?” Sabato said. “I don’t think so.”

As of Saturday, Sabato was predicting that Obama would win in a landslide on Tuesday with as many as 364 electoral votes, compared with an estimated 174 for McCain.

A new Mason-Dixon poll of likely voters in eight battleground states shows that Obama leads in Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Virginia. For his part, McCain is ahead in Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio.

In Virginia, Obama is favored by 47 percent of voters over McCain’s 44 percent, according to the Mason-Dixon poll of 625 registered voters on Wednesday and Thursday.

The poll, which is conducted for The Daily Progress and other Virginia newspapers, found that Obama was holding onto his small lead over the past week in Virginia, a state that has backed Republicans for president in every election for the past 44 years.

Obama continues to hold a vast lead in vote-rich Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, but McCain has the edge in Virginia’s rural areas and in the Richmond metropolitan area. The mostly conservative-leaning Shenandoah/Piedmont region — which includes the lone Democratic pocket of Charlottesville — is favoring McCain by 55 percent over Obama’s 35 percent.

Statewide, however, things are trending solidly in the direction of the Democratic nominee.

“Incredibly, for the first time since 1964, I think Virginia is going to go for Obama,” said Sabato, speaking during a pre-football game forum at UVa.

One ray of hope for McCain, wrote Mason-Dixon pollster J. Bradford Coker, is that “hidden racial voting” may undercut Obama’s support in Virginia and elsewhere.

Will ‘Bradley Effect’ show?

The so-called “Bradley Effect” holds that black candidates fare better in pre-election polls than they do on Election Day, as secretly racist voters tell pollsters they plan to support the black candidate, but actually cast a vote for the white candidate.

Coker pointed out that he has directly seen such a phenomenon in three races, including Virginia’s 1989 governor’s race, in which Doug Wilder beat Marshall Coleman, but not by the wide margins anticipated by pre-election polls.

“So, the million dollar question is: Will there be a ‘Wilder/Gantt/Duke Effect’ in the 2008 presidential race?” Coker wrote. “No matter what anyone theorizes, the answer today is that no one knows for sure. The three races I cited were all almost 20 years ago, and changes in the country may have mitigated many factors regarding race and voting. But since this is the first time an African-American has been this close to winning the presidency, it would be foolish to completely rule it out.”

McCain camp insists on upset

The McCain campaign insists that the Republicans will pull off an upset on Tuesday, defeating Obama in key states, including Virginia. In recent days, GOP campaign officials said, there has been a swelling of support among volunteers across the country, with upward of 20,000 in Virginia.

“This is going to be a close race nationwide,” said Jerry Kilgore, former Virginia attorney general and co-chairman of McCain’s campaign in Virginia. “It may come down to Virginia. We hope it does come down to Virginia.”

McCain’s camp is aiming to sway undecided voters in Virginia. According to the Mason-Dixon poll released Saturday, as many as 9 percent of voters in Virginia remain undecided between the nominees. Other polls show that number to be more modest, though only slightly in some cases.

“Between 4 and 8 percent of Virginia voters are undecided,” said Attorney General Bob McDonnell, a Republican trying to help McCain carry Virginia. “Plenty enough to win.”

It is highly unusual to have so many undecided voters so late in an election, Coker said. In 2004, the Mason-Dixon poll found that only 5 percent of voters were undecided between George W. Bush and John Kerry just before Election Day.

In 2000, only 6 percent were undecided between Bush and Al Gore. The last time so many voters remained undecided on the eve of the election, he said, was the Wilder-Coleman governor’s race 19 years ago.

Sabato: New voters the key

All the GOP’s best efforts, however, will likely be for naught, Sabato said. The Democrats, he said, have registered a record-breaking number of new voters, have organized a superior voter turnout operation, and are much more excited about their nominee.

Polls are showing that Obama is widely favored among early voters, he said, suggesting that the excitement surrounding Obama will certainly carry into Election Day.

“It tells you who really wants to get out there and vote,” he said. “Who is enthusiastic? Who is chomping at the bit to vote?”

The top issue of the day has easily been the economy, even before the stock market crashed in mid-September and the financial industry imploded. People around the country, Sabato said, have seen huge losses in their retirement savings and are wondering when, if ever, they’ll be able to retire.

In other words, he said, it is a horrible environment for any candidate from the party that has been in power for the past eight years.

Meanwhile, President Bush has the lowest approval ratings in the history of presidential polling. His approval rating, Sabato pointed out, are much worse than Nixon’s on the day he resigned.

‘Bush’s third term’ unlikely

“All [Obama] had to do was convince people that John McCain is Bush’s third term,” he said. “And it has been done.”

Even worse for the Republicans, Sabato said, will be deep losses in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Sabato predicted that the Democrats will pick up between 25 and 35 seats in the House. In the Senate, he expects the Democrats will gain between six and 10 seats.

“Things are deteriorating on a daily basis for Republican candidates,” he said. “Even secure Republicans are looking over their shoulder.”

The anticipated huge Democratic gains in Congress and Obama in the White House, he said, may be the start of a lengthy era of Democratic-led government.

“It’s going to be between a tide and tidal wave for Democrats,” Sabato said.

____________________

mrzookie:

@Thatcher

Thanks.

____________________

Ryan in MO:

@political_junkie

No way mccain is actually ahead in MO after the turnout in Springfield.

____________________

political_junki:

Ryan in MO:
Well this is just one vote and Mason/Dixon is always weird. They have a good reputation but I have seen some weird stuff from them.
O might be behind by one point, if you look at pollster's last numbers, they have been very tight, leaning McSame...

____________________

Thatcher:

@Ryan in MO:

Obama had large rallies in Ohio and PA during the primaries, too ... and he lost those to Clinton.

Rallies, yardsigns and bumperstickers don't vote.

However, I am optimistic about Missouri, myself.

____________________

Lechuguilla:

Ryan in MO:

Missouri has been a bellweather state since 1956. If O wins nationally by at least 5 points, he will carry Missouri. But ...

Missouri has been trending slightly more Repub. in last few elections. Its bellweather status is in some doubt, especially if Obama wins nationally by a very small margin.

Lech

____________________

political_junki:

Mason-Dixon has always shown Obama down in OH. It and (save for a couple of polls) Rasmussen have been the most bearish pollsters on Obama in OH. My two cents. M-D's credibility outside the South has deteriorated over the past decade and beginning in 2006 its creds for being the best in polling the South has taken some severe hits. Given that M-D has been one of the most pessimistic pollsters for Obama this cycle, the fact that they peg him ahead in 5 out 8 battleground states they polled is actually good for Obama.

____________________

straight talk:

Obama is surgin!!!! Did the Gop 72 hour GOTV start yet?

Based on the early voting trends! They BEtter!
Reports are sayin that youth are starting to pick up and AA turnout is incredibly high!

State polls will be expanding again, because O is holding at 6 nationally.

But is about who has the GROUND GAME. And right no the OBama team is crushing the Gop!

This is were that Ethusiasm gap comes in! Do you think Conservatives are going to stand in line for a guy that they don't like, just to vote against Obama? I do not think so!

Obama is poised for Landslide victory!!!!!!

____________________

Thatcher:

OK ... Who's on here that is decent at math? I would like someone to verify my Zogby concern.

____________________

saywhat90:

you know its funny how all this talk about the bradley effect seem to leave somethings out.in the case of indiana,nc and pennsylvania barack managed to outperform the predicted numbers. in the case of west virginia and kentucky he underperformed but hillary was going to get a huge in thsoe polls anyway. but the case is in neither situation did the bradley effect factor in to equation.nc was thought to be a close between him and hillary it wasnt. indiana was supposed to give hillary at least a six point lead it was only 2. and pa was supposed to bea 20 pt lead it was 10. so all this concern about the bradley effect is moot. besides if he is ahead by 4 points he still wins. avg lose he would get if there is a bradley effect would 2 or 3 points at most. but i cant think that after 20 years people that the majority of white americans would be that racist and prejudice(and yes it is racist no matter how you look at it) to vote for mccain and then lie about who u voted because the otehr guy was blakc and you couldnt let yourself vote for him.

____________________

The Dude:

Peeps, I'm going on record now and calling Georgia for Obama! My math tells me McSame has an almost impossible hill to climb based on the early voting patterns and the projected total vote count. Mind you, though, it'll be a nailbiter.

My prediction: Obama (49.4%), McSame (48.6%), Barr/Others (2.0%)

____________________

political_junki:

The Dude:
From your mouth to God's (or who ever is counting the votes) ears :)

____________________

Lechuguilla:

The Dude: "I'm going on record now and calling Georgia for Obama!"

Somehow I just can't see O winning Georgia. Florida, maybe. Georgia, no.

I mean like, I hope you're right. But unless Obama's national lead widens considerably beyond +6, I fear that Georgia stays repub.

Lech

____________________

political_junki:

Lechuguilla:
In general I'd agree with you, but no one knows what will the effect of Barr be in GA. GA is unique in that sense, if Barr gets 5% of white vote, bigO has a chance

____________________

The Dude:

One more thing. The media keeps harping on this Bradley effect and are completing ignoring probably the most relevant case study that mimics the same dynamics we're seeing: the 2006 Senate election between Coker and Ford Jr in Tennessee.

In a nutshell, the final polls OVERESTIMATED Coker's win (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/tn/tennessee_senate_race-20.html). The prediction was +6; he won by 3 points 51-48.

And when you look at the exit polls I was blown away.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/TN/S/01/epolls.0.html

These polls stated Ford Jr captured 40% of the caucasian vote (of whom represented 85% of the electorate). Even if you knock off 5% points (b/c they are exit polls) to bring it to 35% this is incredible given that Ford Jr had family baggage attached to him in the race. And he lost by a mere 3 points!

My estimate assumes Obama will capture just a little over 30% of the caucasian vote to win the state. For reference, Kerry got 43% of this demo in 2004. Doable? I think so given all of the other factors (economy, change, etc.) and the way he has run his campaign this cycle.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I think McCain voters are depressed and may stay home. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/01/ap-poll-shows-obama-backe_n_139974.html

____________________

Lechuguilla:

I sure hope y'all are right and I'm wrong. Third party candidates like Barr tend to collapse at end. Tennessee race (pardon the pun :) was for Senate. A presidential "race" might be more iffy, re: Bradley.

But maybe I'm being my usual pessimistic self. :)

In meantime, time to go to bed. Nite all.

Lech

____________________

tominga:

I'm pretty sure Obama doesn't have a 16 point lead in Ohio, but I have been noticing, while others have been sweating the fact that his lead has shrunk a little bit in PA, that his lead has been opening up a little bit in Ohio.

In other words, even if McCain could pick off PA (which I don't think he will), it doesn't matter if he loses Ohio.

____________________

Sarah McPlain:

Dude, you are right. All Obama has to do is hold on to Kerry's % of the remaining vote and he will win.

____________________

The Dude:

The reason I think Barr will be a factor here is that the repugs are p*ssed at Chambliss for voting for the bailout. Heck, that's why Chambliss is tied with a dull guy like Martin.

Since the bailout, Barr on the few chances he's been in front of the MSM, has been linking McSame with Chambliss. Sorta like how Obama's done it with McSame & Bush. It will give those fiscal conservative repugs a protest vote by voting for Barr. 9 out of 10 Barr votes imho would ordinarily go to McSame or be non-voters if there were only 2 candidates

____________________

Kjartan:

The Palin-Sarkozy-story is one of the top stories in the german news. Funny...but I am a little bit scary that she has the chance to be VP and talk to the real Sarkozy like she did yesterday. She sounds like a high school girl.

____________________

tominga:

Since the election is going to be close in Georgia, Barr won't poll as much as a lot of people think. 3rd party candidate's numbers go down when there's the prospect of a close election, as Ralph Nader found out in 2000 (and others have found out as well.)

Barr will get 1% in GA at least, maybe as high as 2%, but I'm thinking more like 1%. A lot of conservatives who vote will end up pushing the button for McCain because its close in the state.

Having said that, Obama only needs to get about 27% of the white vote in GA to win.

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PJ_FFM:

A response rate of less thane 10% doesn't quite rock...

I figure this poll is more of a proof that people called by an advanced institution of learning don't quite like to be contacted by what might be "intellectuals"...

Therefore, this poll is not about "Do people from the Buckeye State favor Obama or McCain by an astonishing 16 per cent?", but about "90% of potential respondents in Ohio might dislike universities"...

Which looks like another liability for an accomplished scholar like Obama, who used to be editor of Harvard Law Review.

To paraphrase Monty Python's John Cleese on Olbermann's "Countdown", there is a problem in the USA with a certain envy of other people's intellectual capabilities when it comes to voting.

____________________

Cho:

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

Zogby is really a very honorable guy, shouting his one-day-numbers out everywhere only to claim they dont matter the next day. Also a 11 point-swing from one day to another is hardly inside the MOE even for these small samples. He really is an attention-whore and no serious scientist.

____________________

jonny87:

zogbys a complete joke. i cant believe he would so blatantly cook the numbers.

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Cho:

and zogbys hit on nate silver, just disgusting

____________________

Ryguy:

who still uses zogby as a barometer for any election? hes already proven to be innaccurate, so why take him seriously?

____________________

Ryguy:

who still uses zogby as a barometer for any election? hes already proven to be innaccurate, so why take him seriously?

____________________

ricbrig:

yeah Cho, so professional

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ctj:

I am actually reading Zogby's comments a little differently than most of you this morning. I am actually for once IMPRESSED with his analysis on his poll #'s- he admidts that one days worth of #'s in a tracking poll is meaningless while also admitting that all bases of support are shoring up for both candidates. Hey John question for you? Where was this kind of thoughtful analysis for the past... oh I don't know YEAR!

____________________

merveilleux:

Ugh, hearing about Harold Ford Jr. makes me angry at the Republicans all over again for that. That was one of the lowest stunts ever.

____________________

johncoz:

POLL SHOCK: Zogby an idiot. Developing ...

I'm not sure what's more embarrassing: Drudge having to post Zogby's latest result (just to maintain the tiniest shred of credibility) or John Zogby's own pathetic "explanation". The big Z really has cruelled any hope of being taken seriously ever again.

It's all worth it though, just to get this gem from K-Lo over in Kindergarten Corner at NRO:
Zog [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
Listen, I am not a poll conspiracy theorist. At least I don't want to be. But what the heck? McCain was leading last night suddenly. Now he's most definitely not. What's up with that? I'll tell you what's up with that. I promise you I am not delusional, but: The only poll that matters is real votes. See you on Election Day.

I love "I promise you I am not delusional, but ..."

Priceless!

p.s. This is the graph for the 3-day trackers. Says it all ...

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3206/2993433260_9b735f2fe5_b.jpg

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vmval1:

@Cho:

What hit on Zogby?

____________________

vmval1:

You are kidding me - has the US just shifted their time zone by an hour??

____________________

maddiekat:

I just saw Rasmussen on Fox and Friends. As hard as they pushed him for good news Ras really did not have any to offer. I look for Obama to be up +6 or even + 7 today.

____________________

Cho:

vmval1: Zogby tells Nate, who is also a baseball-expert, to calm down and look at his cards after Nate criticized Zogbys "philosophy" of polling. Zogby in his latest update:
"A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

____________________

johncoz:

jonny,

Zog didn't "cook the numbers". He had a true outlier, in the technical sense of a sample that fell outside the MOE (probability 1-in-20). His stupidity was to use what he must have known was a rogue daily sample to self-promote by leaking to Sludge. If he had shut up, then his top-line numbers would have simply shown a funny tightening and then return to the main trend and no-one would have been particularly concerned. That's what true professionals such as Gallup and Rass do, since you can be assured they also get rogue daily results.

____________________

ctj:

Is there a new poll ot for OHIO from Mason Dixon?

____________________

ctj:

ot=out LOL!

____________________

johncoz:

vmval1:
"You are kidding me - has the US just shifted their time zone by an hour??"

Good question! Can someone tell us outliers what the real time is, please?

____________________

vmval1:

@Cho:

Thanks - i didn't realise Nate was a baseball expert as well.

@ Johncoz:
Mate, the extra hour means we need to stay up till 1.30am to get the Ras poll. Ouch.

____________________

johncoz:

vmval1, and 5.30 for Gallup (ouch), but only a couple of days to go to see history being made (if I could get a ticket to Grant Park I'd get on a plane tomorrow).

As for Zogby on Nate. Very unwise to take a swipe at someone who has emerged as the new star of meta-polling.

____________________

TheCanadian:

I live in Indiana and last night I saw a new attack ad against Obama featuring Rev. Wright. It was funded by a group called GOP trust.

The ad is really trying to play the race card and is in bad taste. Is this playing anywhere else?

____________________

merveilleux:

It's 6:57 on the east coast.

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jonny87:

@johncoz

its just hard to believe that after mccains 1+ yesterday he got just the number he needed for obama to widen the gap a little, so hes not out of the loop with every other polling firm.

____________________

TheCanadian:

Kos just posted his #'s, 51-44, same as yesterday. Link below.

http://www.dailykos.com/trendlines

____________________

Cho:

Bad single day for Obama in the DKos-poll, only +4 on Saturday, combined with +8 on Thu and +9 on Fri, the average is unchanged at 51-44.

____________________

sankaba:

Zogby O 50 M 44 today. Calls yesterday's McCain surge "one-day doesn't make a trend". That's why Drudge is missing in action. He's also asking bloggers to chill out.

____________________

TheCanadian:

Obama's lead is always lower on weekend polls.

____________________

Cho:

Problem is the final tracking results will include two thirds of polling on the weekend.

____________________

TheCanadian:

True, wonder which are more accurate, weekend polls or weekday one's? You can make arguments either way. Has there been any study into this?

____________________

jonny87:

@maddiekat

did F and F ask rasmussen about the auntie story?

____________________

johncoz:

jonny,

every pollster will get a zany number every now and again, they just hope and pray it doesn't happend on election eve, which is exactly what happened to Nielsen in the Australian general election last year (they are the second biggest policitical pollster here).

The difference is that they admitted it was a rogue poll -- Zogby however sold his pup to Sludge as a real result knowing it was bullcrap.

____________________

ricbrig:

@Cho, unless there is a very charp and sensitive change in the polls, the effect is quite known and there is nothing to worry about. It's just a question of us being oversensitive to poll numbers.


____________________

Lou-NH:

The current east coast time is 7:14AM

____________________

mysticlaker:

@Cho

Re: Kos

It's not a 9 point race (like Kos yesterday). It's not a three point race like Ras Tuesday. It's a 5-6 point race. The average of all the polls will show this.

____________________

ricbrig:

@johncoz, it is likely that also Ras had a M+1 last week, when, in wednesday the poll showed O+3. The difference is that Ras doesn't put emphasis on a single day as Zogby does. It should really stick to the numbers and I really didn't like his comment on Nate's blog.

____________________

merveilleux:

Does anyone know if youth early voting improved in any states on Saturday?

____________________

johncoz:

Morning mystic,

My numbers say 6.6 as of yesterday, and growing; RCP 6.8; and Pollster 6.5.

____________________

maddiekat:

jonny87

No they did not ask Rasmussen about it. It is a non story Jonny so give it a break.

As far as Daily Kos goes although it was a bad day of polling notice Obama stil polled at 50%.McCain can not poll at 50% on a great night of polling.

____________________

Pazienza:

Mason Dixon's Latest:

Virginia: Obama 47 McCain 44 Undecided 9

Florida: Obama 47 McCain 45 Undecided 7

http://www.mason-dixon.com/public/index.cfm

____________________

jonny87:

@maddiekat

aye aye aye! im not a concern troll!

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DAZNY:
____________________

jonny87:

anyone live in a republican dominated area? are they going to bother to vote?

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DAZNY:
____________________

mysticlaker:

Morning @John...

I bet we see close to 60 state polls today come out....

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johncoz:

@ricbrig

Correct :-)

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jonny87:

'Colorado unaffiliated voters, the critical voting bloc making up more than one-third of the state electorate, are backing Obama 57 percent to 32 percent'

that will do nicely

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mysticlaker:

Mason Dixon is not pushing leaners, huh?

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johncoz:

@Pazienza

Good Obama result for Florida; essentially unchanged in PA. That is in terms of M-D's previous polls of same states.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

I am curious!


Are the people in charge of this site pandering to their leftist audience by posting a pro Obama poll more than 10 days old or what lol?

HAHAHAHA, HOW PREDICTABLE!

Check out the new polls of OH..Mack is up again!

EAT YOUR HEARTS OUT!

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