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OH, PA: Marist (10/5-8)

Topics: PHome

Marist College Institute for Public Opinion
Mode: Live telephone interviews conducted October 5-8, 2008

Ohio
961 registered voters, 771 likely voters, margin of error +/-3.5% for both

Likely voters with leaners: Obama 49, McCain 45
(9/11-15: Obama 47, McCain 45)

Registered voters: Obama 48, McCain 40
(9/11-15: Obama 44, McCain 44)

Pennsylvania
943 registered voters, 757 likely voters, margin of error +/-3.5% for both

Likely voters with leaners: Obama 53, McCain 41
(9/11-15: Obama 49, McCain 44)

Registered voters: Obama 49, McCain 40
(9/11-15: Obama 45, McCain 42)


 

Comments
IndependentThinker:

McCain-Palin schedules show GOP playing defense
Posted: 11:18 AM ET

From CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney
McCain is campaigning in states he had hoped to have sewn up at this point in the race.
McCain is campaigning in states he had hoped to have sewn up at this point in the race.

(CNN) — John McCain and Sarah Palin are campaigning Monday in two states that haven't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in more than four decades, a clear indication the GOP ticket is scrambling to defend longtime Republican strongholds with only three weeks until Election Day.

But at a time when the McCain campaign had hoped to have shored up its support in the traditional red states, a string of new surveys show Obama has made significant gains there as voters become increasingly worried about the nation's financial woes.

McCain and Palin are set to hold a joint rally in Virginia Beach Monday morning before the two candidates split up, as the Republican nominee heads down to North Carolina as his running mate stays behind for more events in Virginia. It’s the first time McCain has made visits to either state in more than four months, and comes as a series of battleground surveys suggest his playing field is increasingly shrinking.

Obama/Biden 08
Let's get rid of those nasty republicans now

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adocarbog:

Democracy corps National
Obama 50
McCain 40

no link yet

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carl29:

I read that Palin will be in Indiana today and McCain in North Carolina. Unbelievable that a Republican nominee is campaigning in those state at 23 days of the election :-)!!!

Obama/Biden 08!!

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drinkwine247:

Wait....when will John McLame and Sarah Failin withdraw sheepishly from Pa? I mean it is rather funny that they are campaigning here and yet are getting farther and farther behind!! Steve Schmidt is an A-Hole!

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nathan:

Outdated poll

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sotonightthatimightsee:

Ohio looks good for Mack!!!!

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BOOMFAIL:

I'm glad to see RV listed as well, as I firmly believe that the LV models do not take into account the millions of newly registered voters, since they obviously did not vote in the last election, which is a requirement to be a LV. These newly registered voters WILL show up this time!

Landslide Baby Landslide

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1magine:

Holy7 CR*P! I just hear Sydney's speech. It is a mash-up of Obama's greatest hits. WTF Sydney? Can't your writers even come up wioth their own speeches.

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carl29:

drinkwine247,

I don't think they can withdraw from PA now. Just imagine the "message" that such move will send to his supporters. It is not the kind of PR tactic that the McCain campaign needs right now. They will pretend to stay there but will look for other targets, if there is such thing at this point. McCain made of PA his trap, just like Guliani made FL his during the Republican primaries.

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zhimbo:

The dates should be listed as Oct 5-8th.

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DecaturMark:

We are starting to see Omama ads in GA. We are also seeing a good turn out in early voting especially in Dem strong areas. If McCain has to make amove to defend GA, he is in serious trouble. I don't think Obama will win GA, but the fact that he is spending money here means that he is stretching the table. There doesn't seem to be any enthusiasm for the Republican ticket here. I see a lot more Obama stickers and yard signs than McCain.

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PortlandRocks:

Did McCain give up on Florida? Why NC and IN? If they don't win FLORDIA or VA it's more than over. I guess it doesn't matter where they are at this point. Obama's strategy has been BRILLIANT.

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mac7396:

Looks like McSame/Failin have wasted a lot of time in PA. PA = Safe Obama. Epic Fail = Safe McCain.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

GREAT NEWZ!!! FOR MCCAIN!

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Carl29

What's unbelievable is the fact that for the first time in history both the presidential and the vice presidential candidates running for election on the GOP ticket have been found guilty of ethics violations. This ticket lost all credibility about 3 weeks ago.

____________________

Jacob S:

@IndependentThinker:

Your CNN report shows why McCain's campaign has been tactically throttled by the Obama folks. McCain has not visited VA or NC in "over four months?!" Does he think that it's 1988? If his campaign simply looked at the polling, they would know that the Republican Party can no longer take VA and NC for granted.

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carl29:

zhimbo,

This just confirms what other pollsters found in PA:

Marist 10/05 - 10/08 757 LV 53 41 Obama +12

Strategic Vision (R) 10/05 - 10/07 1200 LV
54 40 Obama +14

Rasmussen 10/06 - 10/06 700 LV 54 41 Obama +13

The average lead is: Obama +13%

The exact same as:
Morning Call Tracking 10/08 - 10/12 612 LV
Obama 51 McCAin 38 Obama +13%

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socalerdoc:

Everytime they show the people at these McCain/Palin rally it looks like a KKK/whitetrash/high school drop out convention.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Word is spreading that Obama raised record amounts of cash in September. His ads are going to be running everywhere. The thiry minute spot should be a big hit this week. Later this week, McCain is going to have to drop his pants during on of these stump speeches to get any air time.

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RussTC3:

The 30-minute special doesn't run until Wednesday, October 29th.

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DecaturMark:

From The Politico:

Here's sort of endorsement you want in North Carolina:legendary former North Carolina basketball Coach Dean Smith, who backed Edwards in the primary, comes out for Obama in an email to supporters asking them to join him and volunteer for the campaign:

Linnea and I respect all that Senator McCain has done for our country. However, we feel strongly that it is Barack Obama who offers the real leadership our nation needs to tap its potential as a land of opportunity -- even as we face difficult times at home and abroad. Senator Obama is a patriotic American, a committed Christian, a good family man, and a man who shares the bedrock values that most North Carolinians have in common: fairness, hard work, respect for others, and personal responsibility. And he has the vision and judgment to help us push through this period of uncertainty to a time of greater economic stability and greater security from threats abroad.

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IndependentThinker:

@sotonightthatimightsee

"Ohio looks good for Mack!!!!"

Whatever makes you sleep better at night

Likely voters with leaners: Obama 49, McCain 45
(9/11-15: Obama 47, McCain 45)
Obama's gain: +2
McCain's gain: +0

Registered voters: Obama 48, McCain 40
(9/11-15: Obama 44, McCain 44)
Obama's gain: +4
McCain's gain: -4

FYI: Bush won Ohio twice in the past 2 elections

You're grasping at straws!
Keep dreaming you'll obviously wake up on Nov 4th anyway!

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wakeup:

This poll is ancient... pace of election is light years beyond it.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@DecaturMark

Wow I wonder if that breaks McCain's back in NC. A lot of people listen to Dean and it will be interesting to see what the state polls show during the next cycle.

Do we now have a "Dean Smith Effect?"

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wakeup:

Are these ACORN's registered voters?

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Adam:

Did anyone else notice that Obama's advantage with RVs is greater than with LVs in Ohio, but the reverse in Pennsylvania?


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fed:

McCain Is down or even in FL NC VA IN OH MO NV CO NM MO, 10 States he needs to win. Do the math, with 21 more days for campaigning it will be tough for him to visit them all. Early voting in Ga is looking great for Obama, and polls suggesting that WV, ND, and MT are getting tighter make things even more dificult for him

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Indiana4Obama:

I just read that Survey USA is about to release a new poll from Missouri w/ Obama up 51%-43%!!! Can that be correct???

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ThatMarvelousApe:

SUSA has Obama up big in Missouri!

Bellweather, bitches!

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carl29:

Let's check how was the mood of the race during the days this Marist poll was taken:

RASMUSSEN:

10/08/2008 Obama 51 McCain 45
10/07/2008 Obama 52% McCain 44%
10/06/2008 Obama 52% McCain 44%
10/05/2008 Obama 51% McCain 44%

The average during those days:
Obama 51.5% McCain 44.25%

Today's (uncle) Ras' numbers:
Obama 50% McCain 45%

Obama has dropped 1.5% and McCain has "surged" .75%. WOW...how things have changed!!!:-)

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Gary:

These questions about Acorn voters makes me LOL! Admittedly there are falsified acorn voter registrations. But a poller can't CALL a fake person to get a response!

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carl29:

Gary,

The whole ACORN stuff it's D-E-S-P-E-R-A-T-I-O-N, my friend :-)!!!!

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Trosen:

wakeup:

"Are these ACORN's registered voters?"

Unless the dead people and imaginary people that ACORN registered are answering their phones from beyond the grave and fantasyland, then no. The ACORN red herring isn't helping your candidate.

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DCWylly:

Something was really wrong with the University of Cincinnati poll that gave McCain the lead in Ohio over the same time period.

When does McCain just give up.

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Paul:

Marist - OH
RV Obama +8, LV Obama +4
GOP 85% McCain
Dems 89% Obama
Independents McCain 47, Obama 44
Favorable-Unfavorable Obama +23 (+7 from last poll), McCain +10 (-8 from last poll), Biden +24 (+12 from last poll), Palin +9 (-13 from last poll)

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wakeup:

RV's contribute to poll weight, do they not? If they do not please correct me.

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adocarbog:

SUSA NEW MO POLL

Obama 51
McCain 43

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RussTC3:

Last Missouri poll from SurveyUSA had McCain up by two (48/46).

10 pt. swing.

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wakeup:

MO polls are interesting seeing how they have suspended the constitution in that state.

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DecaturMark:

I think in the last 3 weeks of this election, you will see McCain campaign, not to win the election but to regain his image. The campaign he has run has tarnished him and he has struggled with the direction that the campaign was taking him. That is why his measaging has been so disjointed. Having said that, I do think it will help him in the polls slightly. But he has damaged his ability to move the election into his column. We will start to see the McCain of old, but it will be to resurrect his own image not the campaign's.

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RussTC3:

The MO poll moved the RCP average of the state from McCain +0.4% to Obama +2.2%.

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Indiana4Obama:

I think Obama's key to winning Ohio is bumping up that number just a bit among independents. OHio is the one battleground state where he can't quite get over the hump w/ the independents.

With the Dem advantage in registration it may not matter, but it would certainly help.

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KipTin:

Hey... Shannon,Dallas,Texas... stick to the FACTS:

McCain was NEVER found guilty of ethics violations. Of the Keating Five, the Senate Ethics Committee determined that three Democratic Senators had substantially and improperly interfered with the FHLBB in its investigation of Lincoln Savings. Senators John Glenn and John McCain were cleared.

Palin was NOT found guilty of ethics violations. The Alaska legislative committee does not have that power. They can only write reports.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Help! They're polling acorns!

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From SurveyUSA (click my user name for the link):

In Missouri, John McCain's Lead Among White Voters Has Evaporated: In an election for President of the United States in battleground Missouri today, 10/13/08, three weeks until votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama has momentum and a meaningful advantage in SurveyUSA's latest tracking poll, conducted for KMOX radio in St Louis and KCTV-TV in Kansas City. The contest in Missouri has swung 10-points to Obama since SurveyUSA's last track point, 3 weeks ago. Then, McCain led by 2. Today, Obama leads, 51% to 43%. Among white voters, McCain had led by 11. Today, tied. There is movement among men, where McCain had led, now trails; among women, where McCain had been tied, now trails; among higher-income voters, where McCain had led, now trails; and among Independents, where McCain had led, now trails. In greater St. Louis, Obama had led by 5, now by 22. In greater Kansas City, Obama had led by 16, now by 31. George W. Bush carried Missouri by 7 points in 2004, and by 3.5 points in 2000. The state has 11 electoral votes, which are critical to any Republican who seeks the White House.

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Trosen:

Decatur, I have been thinking the same thing.. but I think McCain is in it to win it. And if his GOP boys can pull the usual shenanigans in OH and FL (assuming he can even get legitimately within 3 or 4 points in those states come Election Day), then I think he still thinks he has a fighting chance. And if he thinks that means getting as nasty and divisive as humanly possible, he will.

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mysticlaker:

Whose ready for this?

Missouri:

Obama 51
McCain 43

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=114e8715-9896-484e-8403-33855cf31617

Show me state coming home!

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Indiana4Obama:

Decatur,

I tend to agree. I was telling a friend recently that the Mccain folks have run just a terrible campaign. No strategy, no vision, no clear and coherent message, no ability to inspire (beyond the Palin choice which is now backfiring).

They've made Mccain probably look more erratic than he really is. It's in stark contrast to Bush's campaign team and Obama's campaign team.

The election certainly isn't over, but what Mccain does next is anybody's guess.

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Trosen:

Russ, if that MO poll is accurate.. well, insert whatever cliche you want..

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Paul:

Marist - PA
RV Obama +9, LV Obama +12
Dems 88% for Obama
GOP 83% for McCain
Independents Obama 53% McCain 34%
Strongly support: Obama 81%. McCain 70%
Favorable-unfavorable: Obama +31, McCain +12. Biden +35, Palin +5

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muckinello:

Gallup daily: Obama 51, McCain 41

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IndependentThinker:

Just released

Gallup Daily: Obama Ahead, 51% to 41%

LOL!!

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Indiana4Obama:

Gallup...Obama back up by 10 points. That's quite a shift and reflect some good polling for him over the weekend.

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carl29:

Well, well, well, :-)!!!!

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Thatcher:

Gallup:

RV 0:51 M:41
LV1 O:51 M:44
LV2 O:53 M:43

LV AVG: O:52 M: 43.5 (+8.5) +2.5 since yesterday

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muckinello:

A three point swing on the Gallup poll. All signs indicate that the race has stabilized with Obama up anywhere from 6 to 10 points. Plus, battleground states still shifting towards Obama

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wakeup:

Get the word out to the inner city... if you registered through ACORN the FBI is watching you.

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laguna_b:

Survey USA Mo. Obama by 8+

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atreides:

McCain should have pulled in his horns a long time ago and basically tried to duplicate W's feat in 2004. Shore up Va,NC, In and virtually live in Oh and Fl. What was he thinking? Trying to challenge Obama in Ia of all places or even Wi. Now he's got to play the little Dutch Boy. Only there are too many holes in the dike. Why is he still in Pa. Rendell knows that state like the back of his hand and Obama's got nearly favorite son Biden on his ticket. Say goodbye to Pa. McCain should have NEVER had an offensive strategy. What was it? Bad "intel" again?

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carl29:

Boomy?

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Trosen:

Gallup back up to 51-41.

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muckinello:

wakeup, follow what you preach in your handle. I want to buy from your dealer if you believe that a couple hundred (or thousand) votes are going to decide this election

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TJIRISH34:

As mentioned I am in Indianapolis. The Arizona/Dallas game was the late game on FOX. I can't remember how many times I saw Obama ADS during game and no McCain ADS. At least 6 times. I thought the one where he higlights his family history was good. Although I am sure the racist rednecks were p_ssed seeing a black son to a white family.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

GALLUP: OBAMA +10

Someone start the Drudge sirens, McCain is surging!

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Dana Adini:

keeps getting better

Gallup 51-41 Obama

Survey USA Missouri

51-43 Obama

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maddiekat:

boomshak

The good news is that Zogby and Ramussen can go on Hannity and tell the scumbag the race is getting closer!!

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Indiana4Obama:

TJIrish34,

I'm in Fishers and I can verify that the Obama ads outnumber Mccain ads 10-1, both on television and the radio. Mccain was supposed to inject more resources here but I haven't noticed them.

The Obama ground game is marvelous here. We may not win the state, but it's going to be VERY close.

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PortlandRocks:

Awww WAKEUP is our new BoomShack. So FUNNY to see a RETHUGLICAN concerned about voter's rights. We got into this ****ing mess in the 1st place after your party and the supreme cort STOLE the election in 2000. And look what we go? 8 years of UTTER DISASTER and the largest fiscal deficit in the history of mankind. WAKE UP are you a joke?

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thoughtful:

Gallup - yesterday was a one day surge. on the likely voter 1 Obama +7 on Model 2 which is more 2008 Obama +10.

sinking in quicksand Gasping for air,

395EVs

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wakeup:

RV tabulations are suspect because ACORN...
DOW up 587... I am convinced a sustained stock rally will narrow polls.

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mysticlaker:

Hi Boom, Hi Wakeup!

You ok? Missouri hurt a little?

I guarantee it does not hurt as much as much as the pain felt by the families of the dead soldiers in Iraq fighting an unwarrented war....

Gallup, how does that feel? Does that hurt as much as the family losing health care because of reckless policies of the bush administration?

Tell me. I want to know exactly where and how much it hurts...

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Trosen:

Zogby and Ras can only eat sh*t for so long.. Close polls = good for business.

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carl29:

GALLUP:

Among REGISTERED voters: Obama 51% McC. 41%
Yesterday: Obama 50% McCain 43%

Among LIKELY voters: Obama 51% McC. 44%
Yesterday: Obama 50% McCain 46%

No doubt McCain is surging, right boomshak? :-)

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PortlandRocks:

Fey On Sarah Palin: "If She Wins...I'm Leaving Earth". HILARIOUS WOMAN!:) I love her.

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Commander_King:

We may have a shot in Montana,Georgia and North Dakota. Not to mention WV.

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Paul:

SUSA-MO

Since last SUSA poll, McCain lost 5% of the conservative vote, and lost 6% of the moderate vote. Obama gained 5% with moderates, where he leads by 63-30. In 2004 exit poll, ideology split was 19-45-36 (L-M-C). This SUSA-MO poll adjusted for 2004 exit poll ideology results in Obama +4.

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DecaturMark:

@atreides

I think Obama's/Dean's 50 state strategy made the Republican's think that they could steal a blue state or two. Remember, Kerry's win in WI and PA were not large. The Reps were also thinking that there GOTV experience would outpace anything the Dems could do. The Reps failed to see Obama's strategy during the primaries (or thought that he would not be able to keep it up). Obama actually goaded them into the expanded map. And when McCain took the $84 million and Obama didn't, McCain sealed his own fate. If Obama had failed to reach his fundraising targets it might have been a different story.

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thoughtful:

They are in such shok at RCP the Gallup tracker isn't posted yet. Lookat this so far today!

Missouri SurveyUSA McCain 43, Obama 51 Obama +8
National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 50, McCain 45 Obama +5
National Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
National Hotline/FD Tracking Obama 48, McCain 42 Obama +6
National ABC News/Wash Post Obama 53, McCain 43 Obama +10
Pennsylvania Morning Call Tracking Obama 51, McCain 38 Obama +13
National GW/Battleground Tracking Obama 51, McCain 43 Obama +8
North Dakota Forum Poll/MSUM McCain 43, Obama 45 Obama +2
Ohio Marist Obama 49, McCain 45 Obama +4
Pennsylvania Marist Obama 53, McCain 41 Obama +12

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Trosen:

haha.. easy there Commander. I'm enjoying watching those polls get close but I wouldn't plan any turn blue parties in Butte, Moultire, or Morgantown just yet.

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decided:

This Missouri poll is a 10 point swing for Obama. Last Survey USA poll was 9/24 with +2 McCain.

Is McCain campaigning at all in MO?

Is Obama?

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wakeup:

Polls function better when the election is front and center. Last week the economic hysteria was all the talk. Let the air clear, people will focus on the candidates, and the polls will narrow.

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carl29:

boomy, any news in the "drudge front"? :-)

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Trosen:

decided, lots of Obama ads running in MO. I think Palin was there recently, but I have no idea bout the ads. I know Obama has been killing on the airwaves lately. Here in FL there's an Obama ad on every major network/cable channel every 15 or 20 mins. I honestly don't remember the last McCain ad. It's almost overkill.

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Batony:

McCain is so lucky he only has to win the states Bush won in 2004 minus Iowa and New Mexico. If that wasn't the case this race would definitely be long over.

The polls look a little bad right now, but I still think Colorado will end up deciding this race.

That wasted trip to Iowa could have been a quit trip to Missouri. I think this poll maybe a result of the Biden visits last week.

I just wonder what both camps internals are showing for Pa? Michelle Obama is in Minn? Maybe that ARG poll had some legitmacy.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

It looks like McCain got an outlier on Sunday that allowed him to slowly gain through the week, but now that's dropped off and Obama is back to double digits.

Acorn ain't got nothing to do it.

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wakeup:

I've got a pollster question... would you support the candidate that has indirectly funded the PLO?

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BOOMFAIL:

Gallup tightens on weekends, then widens for Obama as the week goes on. I'm actually surprised to see this much movement for Obama this early in the week. Thursday's numbers should be through the roof! (And that's even before McShame kicks Obama's ass in the debates :~

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Obama will be going to Minnesota regardless of how McCain is doing. He needs good GOTV to get Franken into the Senate.

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thoughtful:

@wakeup

McCain shows no movement in the quicksand, at the end of his struggle, wriggling, gasping, trying to grab on to anything.

I think he is preparing himself to accept defeat with grace or spring one last surprise, one move that changes the game, an ambush.

No more happy mornings for John McCain.

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Trosen:

Batony, pefect example of the GOP delusionary politics of this race. By all means, I hope and pray McCain campaings hard in PA, MN, and WI. I have few, if any polls that have McCain within 10 in weeks in any of these states. I love it..

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PortlandRocks:

wakeup keep wishing.

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carl29:

wakeup,

You don't have anything to worry about. Just yesterday you where wandering about the "odd" polling. So, nothing has changed since then. This is just another "odd" poll. :-)!!!

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Trosen:

wakeup:

"I've got a pollster question... would you support the candidate that has indirectly funded the PLO?"

This is why you lose, and lose badly. Please keep it up.

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PortlandRocks:

But wait folks! McCain will SMOKE Obama on Wed. with his AMAZING debate skills! LOL
After 2 presidential and 1 VP debate this will be the most relaxed I've been b4 a debate. Grandpa was overrated. I said this all along. Obama held his own with Mrs. Clinton, and she is tough, no doubt.

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wakeup:

Would polls move if people saw a chart showing how $75K from the Woods Fund went to the PLO?

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wakeup:

If the economic cloud clears just enough to see the shadows of Obama's past... DOW up 587.

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laguna_b:

@wakeup

>>Would polls move if people saw a chart showing how $75K from the Woods Fund went to the PLO?

I think most are concerned that $2Trillion left thier investment portfolios......keep harping and trying though.....

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Thatcher:

@PortlandRocks:

correct phrase is "Whip his 'you-know-what'..."

I've been trying to figure out what the 'you-know-what' is ... is it:

1) Eggs?
2) Cream?

Because that's about all McCain can whip at this point.

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carl29:

wakeup,

Remember that: 1) this is odd polling b) people will no longer focus on the economy c) remember that you always have the bradley effect, my friend. Dont' worry , just odd, crazy, liberal polling :-)!!!!

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Commander_King:

Its time for wakeup,boomshak and kiptin to be banned asap

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laguna_b:

@wakup

Anyone who knows anything about the market knows it is unstable and prone to HUGE gyrations...it far more likely that it will go to to 7000 before it goes to 10,000....just the way it is...

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PortlandRocks:

wakeup you're a MORON. Obama lead by as much as 10 points PRIOR to both conventions. Your candidate lead ONCE for a few days after a Palin surge. It was fake. This race has NEVER been close. Period.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Haha, now wakeup is back to begging McCain for more smears, thinking that normal people will care if the Dow makes a slight rebound!

Breaking News: Wallstreet won't decide this election. Main street will and they've been hurting for a lot longer than you know!

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orange24:

Wow, this thing is getting ugly. I thought he had a shot at 350 EV, but now I'm thinking 400 EV at this rate. States that haven't been in play in years are not only in play in this election, but Obama is leading in most of them. It's a relief not to have to rely on OH and FL this time. Now, it's just frosting on the cake.

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wakeup:

For the record I think the Bradley effect is a myth. Some polls are odd because they contradict political wisdom... there is no way Obama is +8 in WV, sounds like a poll from the WVU cafeteria.

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Indiana4Obama:

wakeup:

Do you realize how far the Dow is off during Bush's presidency? A one day "surge" or a 3-week "surge" will do nothing to change this.

All Obama has to say is, "Today the Dow is lower than it was when Bush took office...not to mention what's happened to Main Street during that same time"

It's an argument Mccain can't win. Obama has done an AMAZING job cutting off any Mccain missles at Obama's economic/tax policy.

Mcccain's hope rests in the cultural divide. Can he make Obama look "scary," "risky," "dangerous?" It's just hard for him to do this with the selection of Palin and with his erratic behavior. Can the social conservatives win him the election as they did Bush in 2004? We'll see...

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timontheleft:

@wakeup

Why don't you tell us where this "chart" is?

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thoughtful:

I didn't think last Monday or Tuesday could be improved, but they are.

We had both Ras and Zogby apparently leaked to Drudge.

McCain was supposed to announce a new economic initiative which got abandoned

Today we had a new McCain presented as the old authentic fighter McCain.

Strategy; Tactics = desperate flailings of a campaign that has imploded.

Bill Kristol's NYT (today) tactic appears to be turning into reality. Every body in the McCain Campaign is going to get fired.

If he can't run a campaign, he isn't going to be able to run the country, is he?

No more glad mornings for John McCain

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Batony:

Trosen,

I mean I am not a political scientist or expert, but if poll after poll is showing my candidate down by double digits, but I can still win the election by holding on to states my party would in 2004...I think I would be focusing on those.

Now I admit I got burned in 2004 by SUSA...but still in places like PA and WI...all the polls can't be wrong. Now I excuse PA for McCain tomorrow since he has to be in NY for the debate, but why does Palin have to be there? Again maybe their "internals" are showing something different and Ed Rendell did say he doubts Obama is up by double digits.

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orange24:

The debate Wednesday is going to be very interesting. McCain has absolutely nothing to lose at this point, so expect some fireworks from him. As for Obama, did anyone catch the Gibson interview where he called McCain out for not saying all of that BS to his face? Then Joe Biden the next day says, "Where I come from, if you got a problem with somebody, you look him in the eye and say it to his face." They're baiting McCain to bring up Ayers at the debate. I think they've got a response they're itching to use, but will only use it in a face to face accusation from McCain. I'll be watching for that...

____________________

PortlandRocks:

wakeup folks are just getting their 401K statements this week. I'm sure they'll CHANGE THEIR vote when the DOW is up for 1 day. You're a joke.

____________________

wakeup:

Linking Obama to a terrorist organization is not a smear it is a finacial fact that can be traced on paper. This is why Obama could not work for the St Dept, the FBI, or Secret Service... he has terrorist ties. Polls would close if this fact was reported.

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

Why are people saying that Hussein Obama is not an Arab when Saddam Hussein had the same name and was arabic?

Not sure if they are related or not...probably...but Saddam Hussein was an Arab...AND shared the same name Hussein, which is an arabic name. Obama is thus and arab and this is the case no matter how much those on the left spin it. Ultimately, I am hoping he will lose because Americans I feel are too smart to elect a terrorist for president.

____________________

Thatcher:

@alankeyesisawesome

Yeah, and Shaquille O'Neal is Irish.

____________________

wakeup:

The Woods Fund has a list of where the money went. Regarding the market, I am simply saying that a recovery will clear some election air so people can a take a calmer look at the candidates... and Obama does not want this, polls verify this.

____________________

carl29:

wakeup,

Obama has being linked to Osama, the Weather Underground and Ayers, the Chicago corruption, the muslim world, Acorn, the financial crisis, fraud electoral and financial(campaign contributions), and there he is standing up and those attacking him desperate. :-)!!!!

Keep it up, guys. It's working wanders :-)!!!!

____________________

DecaturMark:

McCain is fighting an uphill battle. Not only against Obama, but against his own campaign. If his "internals" are showing that he can win PA despite all other polling to the contrary, then that is just another schism in his campaign. He has not had a clear message and his run for the WH is suffering. Mind you, he can suffer all he wants, but as I said earlier I think McCain is going to work on rehabilitating his image. If that helps in the election, he will take it.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

wakeup ROFL. So much FACT out there that any REPUTABLE news organization won't pick it up. Stay off your right wing LOONY sites. You're scarin' us.

____________________

thoughtful:

@alankeyesisawesome

John Kennedy was an Irish Catholic did that make him an IRA Terrorist?

We have some crazies in America.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

wakeup did you know I've read over 100 reports showing the United States ordered the Terrorist attacks of 911 on our OWN country? OMG! If the news picked this up! ROFL
I D I O T!

____________________

thoughtful:

Is wakeup, kiptin and undecided the same person?

____________________

wakeup:

Did the Woods Fund give AAAN $75K between 2000-2001... Yes. That is a fact. If this fact became more widely known the polls would tighten.

____________________

orange24:

Go watch Obama now on CNN - this election is OVER!

____________________

wakeup:

It has been a pleasure folks... I am off to work. I have the next two days off so look out.

____________________

fed:

Obama is giving his middle class rescue plan right now. I think he just secured the election. Did someone listen to it?

____________________

MBinLA:

@ alankeyesisawesome

Maybe you should propose a required DNA test or maybe even a genome map for all presidential candidates. BTW, even if Obama were to have some Arab blood, I don't think it would worry the American people too much.

____________________

KipTin:

The economy tanked and Obama got the benefit. Now Obama and the Congressional Dems want a multi-billion dollar stimulus package. The national debt is $10.3 trillion. I keep hearing that now it is OK to increase the national debt with incresing budget deficits. This means issuing more U.S. Treasury bonds, that have been great investment opportunities for Americans as well as foreign countries.

My NUMBER ONE priority is to balance the budget and start reducing the national debt. That still holds. I think paying even more interest on the debt is the anti-thesis to good economic policy.

Major categories for Federal spending 2008 budget:
1. Entitlement (7% Medicaid, 16% Medicare, 21% Social Security).
2. Defense 20%.
3. Non-defense discretionary spending 18% (Education, International affairs, Health research and regulation, Veterans' benefits, Science and basic research).
4. Interest on the national debt 8% of total budget and increasing for 2009.

-------------

Right now the Dow is up over 500 and the market is working itself out. I think that we do not need even more costly incentives that will eventually increase the tax burden of everyone... not just the rich.

____________________

katocat:

"I've got a pollster question... would you support the candidate that has indirectly funded the PLO?"

"This is why you lose, and lose badly. Please keep it up."

Yep, these guys are not the sharpest knifes in the drawer are they?

LOL

____________________

Pat:

@alankeyesisawesome

You idiot, Hussein is a common name in Africa and Africans are not Arabs. Go read a few books you moron.

Thank god the average American's IQ is three times yours otherwise the planet earth would be in trouble. Go back to your creepy right wing KKK/mob blogs. Only intelligent people are allowed to comment here.

____________________

KipTin:

I should have added that our Social Security surplus is invested in special U.S. Treasury bonds used to finance the debt. This is good as long as there is a surplus, because the Social Security fund earns interest.

The downside is that as more baby boomers retire those bonds will be sold, and other investors will have to take their place. Who will that be? Will there be enough of such investors? This could be a very significant problem, especially if the Federal debt keeps growing. And that is what both Clintons (Hillary and Bill) have talked about for years.. i.e. the Federal debt is directly correlated with social security benefits.

____________________

logic001:

Someone conjectured that McCain may come to the final debate with a sort of "Hail Mary" economic plan to spring as a surprise on Obama during the debate. That would make sense, at this stage the GOP has to take some risks and if delivered right some people might be swayed. This would be quite the risk though--McCain would need to come up with something breathtaking, but not so unexpected that it came off as "crazy".

I'm going to guess something like doing away with any capital gains tax. He could insist it will magically lead to dozens of Silicon Valleys popping up, zillions of jobs, etc etc. That would be disingenuous on his part, but even if it failed to get him traction for Nov. 4, it would make him the darling of many wealthy men, so that stance will serve him even in defeat.

____________________

KipTin:

Should not call someone else an "idiot" when you do not have your facts right...

FACT: People living in NORTH AFRICA and the Middle East, from western Morocco to Oman, and from Turkey in the north to Yemen and Sudan in the south... ergo some Africans are Arabs.

FACT: Hussein is commonly given as a male given name among MUSLIMS, after Husayn ibn Ali, grandson of the Islamic prophet Muhammad.

FACT: Number of Muslims in Africa estimated to be over 4 million (59% population).

FACT: Obama's father after whom he was named was born in Kenya into the Muslim faith.

____________________

Obama008:

@kinTin

So he took the name from this father. Common Anglo-American thing to do.....

But just to point out I live in PA, and anyone who doesnt live here and thinks mccain may win here, I will tell you without a shadow of a doubt PA will go blue.

____________________

KipTin:

FYI: I have never hidden the FACT that "kiptin" and "undecided" are me. I even ANNOUNCED the change. Those are the only two names I have used on Pollster.com.

____________________

KipTin:

You do not have to defend Obama. I only corrected the misinformation provided by another poster. I really do not care about Obama's name.

____________________

KipTin:

Hey...logic001: It is Obama who just proposed eliminating all capital gains taxes on investments in small businesses and start-up companies.

So does that also make Obama the "darling of many wealthy men."

____________________

cinnamonape:

"WakeUp:Linking Obama to a terrorist organization is not a smear it is a finacial fact that can be traced on paper. This is why Obama could not work for the St Dept, the FBI, or Secret Service... he has terrorist ties. Polls would close if this fact was reported."

Yep! The two Republican former Nixon appointees, and the Jewish members on the Annenberg board really would go out a support the PLO. And what evidence do you have that Obama ever was rejected for these institutions because of terrorist ties. You don';t have a single document or witness...how odd.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Gen. Omar Bradley....extremist Muslim terrorist!

____________________

zotz:

Kiptin-
"FACT: Number of Muslims in Africa estimated to be over 4 million (59% population)."

Way, way off! The pop. of Africa is 680 million. The pop. of Egypt by itself is more than 80 million.

____________________

bmrKY:

"wakeup:
This poll is ancient... pace of election is light years beyond it."

I agree completely... Obama is up by WAY more now than he was then.

Keep on trying fallenasleep/boom****ed. You only make yourself look more pathetic every day.

OMG HUSSEINS A MUSLAMB! WHOSAIN IS GONNA BOWMD ALL AMERICA! HOOSANE IS GONNA BAN MY KLAN RALLIES! WHOMSANG KNOWS AYERS AND ACORN! WHOOSAME GAVE MONEY TO DA TERRORISTS! AMERICUNZ CANT NOT ELECT NO HUSSEIN! DID I MENTION HEZ A MUSL-A-LONG-A-DING-DONG MUSLUMB? HE GONNA CONVERT US ALL 2 MUSLAMISH, AND ABORT SAHARA PALINGS CHILLRUNS! CURSE U HUSSANG!

____________________

faithhopelove:

Marist, with a decent sample size, finds Obama increasing his lead in OH from 2 to 4 points since its last poll. Right-leaning Rasmussen has just released a new OH poll (1,000 likely voters) showing Obama ahead of McCain by 2 points. This Obama lead is somewhat surprising, as Rasmussen's OH polls have consistently been among the most McCain-favorable. Before Rasmussen's new OH poll, 13 of 17 OH polls had shown Obama ahead there; 3 of the 4 exceptions were Rasmussen polls. Similarly, in 2004 Rasmussen's final OH poll showed Kerry losing OH by 4 points; Kerry went on to lose the state by just 2 points.

Today's Rasmussen poll of OH shows the state to be an uphill climb for McCain, as it finds him trailing by 2 points despite the fact that he is doing better with Republicans than Obama is doing with Democrats.

In terms of strategy, Obama appears to have had the goal of nailing down PA early, and then of moving on to do the same in OH. Today, Hillary had an event in PA that capped a 9-day period in which the Obama campaign saturated the state with visits and advertising (Obama is now outspending McCain on advertising in PA; McCain had been outspending Obama there earlier). Over this stretch, Obama made 5 PA stops over 2 days, Biden spent multiple days in the state, and Hillary and Bill Clinton had a joint event with Biden; even Bruce Springsteen got in on the action, offering a free concert in Philly that attracted tens of thousands. The reward? 8 consecutive PA polls showing Obama up double-digits there, including 2 today.

In OH, Obama appears to be hoping for similar results by means of a similar saturation. Late last week, he made 6 stops over 2 days in the state. Yesterday, he returned to the state for debate prep, and even spent some time knocking on doors. Today, he had an event there, and he remains in the state through tomorrow. Tomorrow, Biden arrives in the state, where he will have 6 events over a 2-day period. On Thursday, Bill Clinton campaigns for Obama in the Cleveland area. Obama now leads McCain in OH newspaper endorsements 4 to 1.

Curiously, neither McCain nor Palin is sceduled to visit this crucial state anytime between now and Saturday. Their schedule does, however, include 3 stops over 2 days in PA.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

Hey niTpiK!

There is only two countries that comes close to 4 million of it's population being 59% of that country's population.

Sierra Leone, population 6,144,562
Libya, population 6,036,914

Barak Obama's father was from Kenya. How close to Kenya are Sierra Leone and Libya?

Sierra Leone is on the south-west coast of western Africa, thus about 3000 miles from Kenya.

REAL CLOSE!! Can we say New York to Los Angeles (at about 2700 miles) is closer?

Libya is in North Africa. The closest points between Libya and Kenya are about 1000 miles apart.

REAL CLOSE!! Can we say Boston to Chicago (at about 950 miles) is closer?

Funny how someone who wants others to GET THEIR FACTS STRAIGHT doesn't get their own facts correct.

____________________

kiptin:

While slamming Sen Obama's middle name, might want to research his FIRST. Might want to start with Judges 4. Ignorant is as ignorant knows not.

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