Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

Omero: The Palin Effect, Preliminary Results


It's a little too early to tell the full effect of Senator McCain's selection of Governor Palin as his running mate.  In particular, Palin's biography has created numerous side dialogues--chiefly among women--about working mothers, teen pregnancy, abstinence-only education and raising children with special needs.  Surveys on these topics will take a little time, and some care and nuance.

 

But until then, we do have good preliminary data about the Palin Effect across gender and party.  But bare in mind that the timing of both conventions and the Palin pick announcement (not to mention Labor Day and Hurricane Gustav) make it difficult to identify exactly which bounces are working where.

 

The Palin Effect has rallied white Republican women; Obama gains with other groups

 

A Gallup release today demonstrated that compared to an August average, McCain's support post-Palin has increased with white Republican women (+5 change in McCain).  There has been no movement with Republican men (+1).

 

By contrast, Democrats and independents across gender lines move toward Obama post-Palin.  This movement has mostly been larger than McCain's movement among Republican women (independent men: +7 Obama; independent women: +5; Democratic men and women: +8 each).  In fact, Obama now leads with white independent women (46% Obama, 39% McCain).

 

Among women, Obama-Biden now have the advantage in "experience"

 

According to a new EMILY's List Women's Monitor survey of women (conducted 8/31 to 9/1), the Obama-Biden ticket now has the advantage on "experience."  In their last Women's Monitor from early August, half (51%) of women said "having the experience, background, and knowledge to be President" described McCain better, compared to 16% saying it described Obama better. 

 

In this current survey, the numbers are now almost reversed.  Over half (52%) say the Obama-Biden ticket has more experience, while only 37% say McCain-Palin is more experienced.  Not only did the Palin pick negate McCain's experience "argument," as many commented, but it actually completely erased McCain's advantage, among women, in just a few short weeks.

 

(Disclosure: EMILY's List is an organization helping pro-choice Democratic women.  It is also a Momentum Analysis client, but we do not work on Women's Monitor.) 

 

Women do not just use candidate gender to decide who represents them

 

During the Democratic primaries I noted that Hillary Clinton voters were even more likely to weigh the issues when making their choice.  The Women's Monitor results confirm this pattern--gender alone won't move women voters to McCain-Palin.  (At least among non-Republicans.)

 

Majorities of women said Palin's positions on issues such as abortion, education, and stem-cell research made them more unfavorable toward her (56%, 55%, and 52%, respectively).  In fact, a majority of women (53%) say Obama-Biden is more in touch with the issues that affect women than is McCain-Palin (35%).

 

The McCain campaign recently proffered "this campaign is not about issues."  Indeed, Palin's speech last Friday attempted to attract Hillary Clinton supporters, offering an identical gender as opposed to a similar platform. These results, however, show that issues do matter to women voters. 

 

Comments
DEMO:

The campaign is not about issues? I guess the experience card is off the table now that McCain has picked Palin. I didn't hear much about economic issues in last nights speeches. Exactly what are the Republicans running on?

____________________

jenjenjen:

I am a middle of the road Independent voter & the speech just didn't do it for me. I was left with no clue as to what Sarah Palin envisions for our country. Things she did accomplish:

1. Attack on Obama - Her attacks seemed a little desperate to me.
2. Reaffirmed what I feel about the Republican Party - That today's Republican Party is out of touch with what most American's need & want. We want a little hope and change. Not a "culture war."

I'm sorry to say but she just didn't do it for me. I wish she could have shared vision, but she only revealed the desperation of the Republican Party.

One thing the Republican Party needs to understand is that many of us American's don't mind paying higher taxes if we get something out of it. I'm so tired of the Republican need to create "wars" on everything. "War on Drugs", "War on Terror", ...now "Culture Wars?"

Come on...how about a little "hope?" How about focusing on the things that matter? We can talk all we want about "family values" etc...but the only way family values are going to improve is if the American family can begin to breathe again...that we know that our financial future is solid and that our taxes are going to good use rather than being shipped out of our country.

I'm not against Palin...but I'm against the silliness of the Republican party. Us Moderates will lean toward the left because...it just makes more sense.

____________________

Indy_Dan:

The only solid fact we can back up with polling is that Palin has locked up Alaska and its 3 EC votes for McCain.

Mitt Romney would have likely moved Michigan and its 17 EC votes close to red territory.

What kind of math is that?

____________________

mrut:

McCain's campaign doesn't make sense. It may be that McCain himself just doesn't listen to anyone. He wants to run as an uncompromising and uncompromised "maverick," and I guess mavericks don't "do" domestic policy.

____________________

politicod:

Regarding the above comments of mrut, David Brooks who has a giant-sized man crush on McCain said pretty much the same thing the other day in the NYT in a convoluted article in which he finally said Palin was not qualified. He said Mavericks have grandiose ideas; people like Obama get us Healthcare. Enough said.

____________________

thoughtful:

Margie

Very authorative. It is crystal clear. and your preliminary research tends to support my -2% dip Convention and Palin forecast. Possible to go +2% bounce/dip -6%. I think that speech repulsed Indies and disaffected Democrats. The Republican base has almost completely solidified.

____________________

brambster:

It's really too early to make definitive statements about the whole Palin effect, thought I do believe that everything shown here makes sense.

On a state-by-state basis, I believe that Palin will certainly take AK out of contention, and I also believe that she will play very, very well in Montana, which is as close to Alaska as any state. Hunting is so big in Montana, and everything that goes with that. I don't know that Montana hunters are swing voters, but it's surely much more widely respected than in most any other state outside of Alaska. So I think that Montana may also be leaning again towards McCain.

I do not necessarily think that Palin will play well in other states that matter. Those states are as follow:

Michigan
Ohio
Florida
Virginia
Colorado
Nevada

There is definitely a geographical bias, and just like Montana swings more towards a McCain-Palin ticket, I would imagine that the opposite might be true of places like Florida and Virginia where being from Alaska itself is a negative regardless of why the candidate might be. I don't necessarily know how this plays in Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and Colorado. Certainly Ohio and Michigan are going to be focused mostly on the economy, and it is yet to be seen how McCain addresses such things, and how effectively he does so. I do not believe that Palin helps the economic focus of those states at all, in fact I believe she hurts in this regard.

This also gives Hillary a great opportunity to prove that party unity is more than a two-night thing. Hillary plays great in Ohio and Michigan, and the contrast of Hillary to Palin is something that I'm sure the McCain campaign wouldn't want to see. I think that the Obama campaign should push for either women-focused or economic-focused campaign stops with Hillary in Ohio and Michigan as a way to solidify their lead in these states.

____________________

H2OPlus:

Could you imagine what a Hillary/Palin debate would look like?

____________________

brambster:

I'm sure that such a thing will never get closer than imagination.

I'm not convinced at all that in a debate Palin will be able to give anything but canned responses with party line rhetoric. She just isn't experienced with national politics, and in Alaska debates, they focus primarily on topics like oil, hunting and what to do with the huge surpluses from oil and earmarks. Thus far we have only seen Palin read the words of a speechwriter three different times. Maybe I'll be surprised when she goes off-script, but I doubt it.

____________________

ALECHMTZ:

I DON'T THINK THAT LADY HAS ANY RIGHT TO TRY AND JUDGE OR TRY AND TELL OTHERS WHAT IS RIGHT AND WHAT IS WRONG. WHEN SHE HAS A JUST TURNED 17 YR OLD THAT IS PREGNANT, WHEN THIS COUNTRY HAS A LOT OF TEENAGERS THAT LEAD BY EXAMPLE AND HER DAUGHTER IS PREGNANT WHAT MESSAGE IS THAT SENDING TO THE PEOPLE, TO ME THAT SHE IS NOT AWARE WHAT IS GOING ON IN HER OWN HOME AND SHE CAN'T CONTROL HER OWN KIDS, SO SHE SHOULDN'T BE ALLOWED TO TRY AND CONTROL ANY OTHER SITUATIONS LIKE TRYING TO BE VICE PRESIDENT.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR