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"Outliers" for 3-28

Topics: Barack Obama , Frank Newport , George Bush , Kathy Frankovic , Mark Mellman

Kathy Frankovic explains the utility of panel-back surveys for measuring change, and shares more data on their follow-up survey on Obama's speech on race.

Jennifer Agiesta digs deeper into the recent national surveys and sees "potential negatives on both Democratic candidates... percolating beneath the stable horse-race numbers."

Frank Newport sees potential positive and negative for Democrats in the Gallup "defector" data.

Hart and McInturff explain what pollsters mean by "oversample."

Mark Mellman wonders if the reduced press coverage of the Iraq war explains Americans' "more benign picture of the situation" there.

David Hill uses poll data on Americans leaving "the faith of their youth" to argue that Barack Obama should leave his church.

Todd Domke proposes a cross between "a pollster's focus group, Lincoln-Douglas-style debate, jury trial, and a secret ballot" to resolve the Florida/Michigan impasse.

Gary Andres sees "some positive views" about George Bush beyond his job approval numbers.

Ken Walsh sees the same in some polling from GOP Pollster Ed Goeas.

Marc Ambinder plugs some numbers into Jay Cost's popular vote projection spreadsheet.

 

Comments
kingsbridge77:

I have theory: Hillary's presence in the primary race benefits Obama. Why? The answer is obvious.

TV, Newspaper and radio pundits are using most of their hateful energy to bash Hillary Clinton, and in the process they praise Obama in order to harm Clinton's chances.

This wouldn't be the case if Hillary withdrew, since now these pundits would be forced to concentrate in attacking and swift-boating Obama alone.

It is no secret that Bob Novak, Matt Drudge, David Brooks, the entire New York Post and other right-wing outlets have been exclusively attacking Hillary Clinton while faking love towards Obama. The Drudge website is like a mirror of www.barackobama.com. Nothing negative is said about the Illinois senator.

Another benefit is that if a poll shows Obama trailing McCain in the GE, but Clinton trailing McCain by a larger margin, then the headline becomes "Obama is more electable than Clinton", rather than "McCain favorite to beat Obama" headline we will see once Obama is officially declared the Democratic winner.

In short, Obama is benefiting from good media coverage as long as Hillary Clinton is in the race for the nomination.

What do you guys think?

____________________

the_real_truth:

Perhaps - but if this whole wright nonsense couldn't derail him, what will?

I see him overtaking McCain once Clinton drops out in June.

____________________



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