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PA: 2010 Sen (Quinnipiac 2/22-28)

Topics: poll

Quinnipiac
2/22-28/10; 1,452 registered voters, 2.6% margin of error
649 Democrats, 3.9% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
53% Specter, 29% Sestak (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election
49% Specter, 42% Toomey (chart)
39% Toomey, 36% Sestak (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Arlen Specter: 44 / 43 (chart)
Pat Toomey: 26 / 8
Joe Sestak: 18 / 6

Job Approval / Disapproval
Sen. Specter: 48 / 45 (chart)
Sen. Casey: 53 / 29 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 49 / 46 (chart)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

This is encouraging news. It is still hard for me to understand why Specter would poll this well against Sestak. I am still concerned about Specter's health and age being a factor, but than again, age doesn't seem to be a factor in politics since we they have re-elected Lautenberg, Helms, Strom Thurmond, and my Senators Leahy and Sanders aren't exactly spring chickens.

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djneedle83:

This seat is definitely leans Democrat. The Philly metro area will save Specter period. He should win by 4%-7% points in November.

The Democrats will have roughly a 15% registration edge over Republicans. Suck it Teabaggers!! However, I would prefer non-lifer politicians as Senatorial candidates. We really do need term limits.

There is no need for Specter and Byrd to be dying in the Senate.

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LordMike:

Specter's been a good Democratic soldier, farleft. He even had his staff to GOTV calls on behalf of Coakley during the MA election. He's earned first place on the primary list. The fear is that he goes back to his conservative ways after the election is over.

The big surprise is, of course, his strong showing against Toomey in the general. Then again, this is the first non-rasmussen pollster to do anything on this race in quite a long time.

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Scott:

Ugh. Discouraging.

Although it is Quinnipiac which has demonstrated a slight Democratic bias over the years. And this is of Registered voters, not likely voters. And the only pollster to show Specter leading Toomey.

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djneedle83:

Expect this state to be Obama's favorite stop come campaign time.

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Field Marshal:

It will be interesting to see if this result materializes given the disastrous climate for Dems this November and their demoralized supporters. In addition, without Obama on the ballot, the amount of minority voters will be substantially less. And with Specter on the ballot, how many on the far left fringe will come out to support him remains to be seen.

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Toomey is another Santorum -- far, far out of step with the present-day thinking of Pennsylvanians. He'll get the same 40-42% of the vote that Santorum got and get crushed by Specter, who is well-liked in the state and is a household name.

Remember, in past elections, the Democrats threw everything that had against Specter and couldn't dent him; now the Republicans are going to try it with a right wing nut? In an urban, diversified state like Pa? No chance.

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GARY WAGNER:

The percentage of democrats in this poll seems rather high (45%). Also, if you look at the poll details, the repsondents by a 52 to 39 margin say Spector doesn't deserve reelection. If only 39% say he deserves reelection then how is he polling at 49% in the general election? 10% of the people says he doesn't deserve reelection but are going to vote for him anyway? Something seems out of whack.

We'll see what happens after the primary. Specter has turned into a sickly mean old man who can't make up his mind about anything and will look very bad on the campaign trail.

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Gary -- the answer to your question is that of course at least 10% of Pennsylvanians who don't think Specter should be reelected would vote for him -- and probably more than that. Because the answer is that the alternative is a character like Toomey, who 60% of Pennsylvanians would never vote for because of his anti-PA stands.

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jmartin4s:

I have this race currently down as a tossup and according to my calculations both Specter and Toomey would get 49% of the vote on election night with Toomey winning by 0.08%. The question about this poll is whether it turns about to be hot air like the one QU released of Corzine leading Christie 43 to 38 right before the election or if the trend holds up and Specter begins to open a lead over Toomey again. Just remember everyone though Lynn Yeakel would be beat Specter in 92 and he came back from being behind by double digits. The QU poll shows that 38% want to re-elect Specter while 52% do not, so this race really is a complete tossup.

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Xenobion:

The controversies of last year seem to be blowing over for Specter. Too bad Setsak didn't make inroads but it looks like Specter's climate is getting better and better against Toomey's flailing campaign when he should be pulverizing Specter.

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Field Marshal:

So we have one lib saying Toomey should be "pulverizing" Specter and another saying that "Pennsylvanians would never vote" for Toomey. Which is it now?

Also, what makes Toomey a "character" or "anti-PA"?

LM,

There was another poll out a few weeks ago by F&M showing Toomey up by 14. That poll had much more reasonable crosstabs and was of likely voters.

Come Nov. I believe the people of PA are unlikely to go out and vote for someone like Specter

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GARY WAGNER:

nelcon1551, you characterize a candidate with a 43% unfavorable and a 45% disapproval as "well liked"? Toomey is polling at 42% against Specter and yet, only 34% have any opinion at all about him - and only 8% disapproval. That means Specter is only polling 49% in a leftward leaning poll against a virtually unknown candidate. Still looks like big trouble for him - especially in such an anti-incumbent year.

Specter could still be reelected but he has to be careful with his, "Act like a lady" remarks. Personally, I think he is still vulnerable in the primary regardless of what this poll says. It's going to get uglier before it gets better this year.

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Xenobion:

Field Marshall unfortunately you're falling into the same trap as Stillow. Everyone has an opinion and you're probably best categorizing those opinions by taking them head on rather than grouping them.

There's the continual Non-sequitor of logic you and Stillow do, by grouping all people that you debate on these forums as Liberal and conflicting. I have no idea if the other guy is liberal or not but you're going to continually be hammered from all directions if you continue this move of logic.

Sorry but we're not all liberals and we don't all think the same way.

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Field Marshal:

X,

Are you not a liberal thinker? Is NelCon not a liberal? I've seen plenty of posts from the both of you to suggest that you are regardless of what label YOU apply to yourself.

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Gary -- you miss the point completely, even though you mentioned it in your post. Toomey is unknown by 66% of PA voters. You pointed out that 34% know him and only 8% disapprove. That's because the fringe right wingers know who he is and they probably number about 28-30% in PA.

Once Specter begins to define who he is, the 66% who don't know him will dislike him by about a 4-1 margin. If Toomey had the numbers he had with 70% of the people knowing him, then you'd have a point. As it is, PA is a Democratic state with a powerful machine in Philly and far right of center Republicans typically get smashed there. For a Republican to win PA and overcome an outsized Philly vote, the Democrat would have to be totally despised in the rest of the state. Specter isn't. He's well known and if his fav/unfav numbers are even/steven, he'll win in a walk. Toomey just won't have the votes in the rest of the state to make up for a monster Specter win in Philly.

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Uchenna Oguekwe:

Interesting how his numbers begin to surge after he got on board with the public option and Employee Free Choice Act. Are Americans upset. Yes, but it is because they feel that Congress isn't really fixing the kitchen table problems that discuss everyday.

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Bigmike:

The good ol' poll cherry pickers.

To anyone who thinks Specter is in good shape, I would suggest clicking on the word "chart" next to the Specter/Toomey numbers.

Still winnable by either side, but Specter has a hole to dig out of. Gotta agree with nelcon about the Dem machine.

What I find amazing about these numbers is that BO is at +3. Look at that chart and you will know this one is as Dem friendly as it gets. Franklin and Marshall, who also do RV, have the Pres at -18 a couple of weeks ago. Ras and their most recent LV poll have him at -13. I wouldn't buy +3 even for all adults.

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Bigmike:

Uchenna Oguekwe

"Congress isn't really fixing the kitchen table problems"

I wasn't aware that Congress has fixed any problems this session. Kitchen table or otherwise. Bank bailouts, the "stimulus," and cash for clunkers. Not the kind of stuff they will be writing about in the history books.

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GARY WAGNER:

nelcon1551, you don't understand the makeup of Pennsylvania. It is a lot like Indiana and Ohio. Obama won by a huge margin in Philidelphia and several other counties but he lost big in most of the other counties.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/president/pennsylvania.html

I don't think think a mean old white guy is going to bring out the urban vote like Obama did. Don't you remember that Obama said that Pennsylvania is just a bunch of bitter rednecks clinging to their guns and their religion?

Plus, your prediction of people who don't know Toomey disliking him by a 4 - 1 margin is just your bias talking. Specter has talked out of both sides of his mouth and will have to start trashing the things he used to praise and vice versa. If he is defeated it will be by his own words and his past history.

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Xenobion:

I'd like to think of myself liberal on some things and conservative on others. It doesn't really make me a liberal and doesn't detract from the fact that I'm a person and not an ideology.

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