Franklin & Marshall College
9/23-28/08; 767 RV, 3.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 48, McCain 43
after quinn this morning, this one settles it. pa is undoubtedly blue.
Posted on October 1, 2008 9:11 AM
SO why is RCP reporting this as 45-38? Seems low and to many undecideds, at 17%
Posted on October 1, 2008 9:21 AM
Registered voters were 45 - 38
Posted on October 1, 2008 9:24 AM
RCP is Republican slanted. It's obvious when they pick and choose which polls to post, and sometimes even the timing of the post.
Posted on October 1, 2008 9:33 AM
It looks like this poll finally pushed PA to blue on the map.
Posted on October 1, 2008 9:43 AM
PA is officially light blue. McCain can stop running ads in MI because he has no shot. If he waits until the last week to run his bitter ads in PA, it will be too late.
I think the cat is out of the bag on this one boys. The Republicans telegraphed their negative ads in way too soon. People got tired of McCain's win the day strategy because he came across as not having a plan to get us out of these crisises.
McCain has no other choice but to go negative in PA and FL. He's got to curb peoples enthusiasm so that voter turnout is low. His ground game is not nearly as organized as Obama's.
Posted on October 1, 2008 9:48 AM
This is not the end of the beginning, this is the beginning of the end. lol
Posted on October 1, 2008 10:25 AM
McCain's numbers will probably rebound a little on Friday after the VP debate. Palin cannot fail with expectations so low of her and her performance will be declared "surprisingly strong," "reassuring." That will bring back some of the wobbly conservatives, who will declare her performance a "triumph." "I'm converted!" will be the conservative refrain.
We should also expect Palin to appear much more often on the campaign trail, which will strengthen the Republican ticket somewhat. Right now McCain has been the only one campaigning, and even when Palin has been on the trail, she and McCain have appeared together. This halves the effectiveness of the Republicans. They need to cover more ground and to do that, the two candidates have to travel separately.
Still, strong Dem numbers in Ohio and Florida are bad news for the Republicans. I myself wonder if Obama and Biden shouldn't squeeze in trips to WV. I don't think it's hopeless there.
Wow, i thought Obama was ahead by 15 in PA?
Posted on October 1, 2008 10:30 AM
The numbers will stabilize, but McCain really is running a poor campaign. Here is the candidates schedule for today:
Barack Obama holds a “Change We Need” rally in La Crosse, Wisconsin
John McCain delivers an economic speech at the Harry S Truman Library Institute in Independence, Missouri
Bill Clinton holds a “Change We Need” rally at the University of Central Florida in Orlando
Michelle Obama holds a “Change We Need” rally in Boulder, Colorado
Bill Clinton holds a “Change We Need” rally in Fort Pierce, Florida
Michelle Obama holds a “Change We Need” rally in Kansas City, Missouri
Joe Biden and Sarah Palin answer questions from Katie Couric on the “CBS Evening News”
Senate is expected to begin voting on the bailout bill in Washington, D.C.
Posted on October 1, 2008 10:31 AM
The schedule you post makes the point that the Republicans just aren't covering the ground the Dems are. If Bush had been even an average president instead the catastrophic leadership void that he is, he could help the Republican candidate. But he and the vice president have been sequestered along with the vice presidential candidate. Then McCain lost a few days on the campaign trail "saving" the bailout bill. You're right--McCain's campaign looks like one of the worst-run campaigns in history. Generally it's the Dems who run strange, rudderless campaigns.
Posted on October 1, 2008 10:47 AM
Good to see voters in PA are waking up.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:03 AM
You are probably right, Obama is likely ahead by more than this poll says. But the trend is crystal clear. All the polls will soon show a double-digit Obama lead.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:15 AM
RCP is "Republican-slanted?" Garbage. And also how does that explain that they used RV with Obama +7 rather than LV with Obama +5?
Quinnipiac poll at +15 seems a stretch (i.e. Kerry +2.5 and Gore +4.2) but this one fits right in with the other recent polling.
Posted on October 1, 2008 11:43 AM
The daily Muhlenberg daily PA tracking poll shows Obama +8 (last time its results were published). Given this poll and Quin's I'd say that's just about right
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:06 PM
Also, there are times party operatives on both sides say..."Make my day...please keep visiting this state". In PA, McCain, unfortunately, has no choice. There just aren't enough competitive states left for him at this point. He needs to keep trying there and MN and NH. Trying to reverse the flow in IA, however, is foolish, and shoring up MO, at this point is...pointLESS, since winning a second tier (for Obama, that is) state like that is a given if he's to have even the slightest chance to win.
He has to hope for a shift back to him, as economic worries subside (once the bailout is passed in some form); he has to hope for a terrorist attack or foreign policy challenge. That's his turf. If he gets it it's back to a 2 point race, most likely where he has a shot in NH and MN (maybe, though I doubt it) and PA
Even then he needs to get back to VA and CO to try to move them back to him. He's totally wasting valuable time in states like MO and IN (should he venture forth there) and IA
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:12 PM
There hasn't been a published poll on Minnesota in 10 days. Obama people on the ground there are reporting major movement in his direction, probably comparable to the shifts in more frequently polled marginally blue states like MI and PA. The bottom is dropping out of the McCain campaign, and voters are getting increasingly comfortable with the idea of Barack Obama as their President after his strong and reassuring debate performance and after seeing his steady demeanor in the economic crisis. Look for a significant Obama lead in MN next time anyone gets around to polling there.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:38 PM
I agree. Minnesotans are a well-informed electorate. I think Palin's nomination made them look at McCain again, but they realized that even though Palin sounds like them (with that distinctive upper Midwestern accent), she doesn't think like they do. Minnesotans are not so easy to impress.
Posted on October 1, 2008 12:43 PM
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