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PA: Obama 49, McCain 42 (Muhlenberg-9/24-28)

Topics: PHome

Muhlenberg College
Pennsylvania 5-Day Tracking
9/24-28/08; 581 LV, 4.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Pennsylvania
Obama 49, McCain 42

 

Comments
IndependentThinker:

Let's get the SPIN machine started ...

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Tyler:

Obama isn't winning by a landslide therefore he's really losing. Can't close the deal, etc.

There I said it for you, let's move on. :)

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AmericaFirst:

I wanna see MN

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PHGrl:

Somebody please help me with these new interactive charts..

If you change the sensitivity on the PA chart to less sensitive, Obama is up by 4.7, more sensitive he is up by 5.7, but if you use the default its 2.9?!?

how can the default produce a spread thats less than the less AND more sensitive??

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PortlandRocks:

McCain is working hard in PA and it's slipping away. I would abandon the blue's if I were him. He has ZERO chance of winning a Kerry state. But hey, actually, no McCain, keep spending there and ignoring VA, NC. I like that!

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@PHGrl

Near past has some good McCain numbers in it. If you take more sensitive, these good McCain numbers are left off because they are too far back. If you take less sensitive, the near past good McCain numbers are offset by some good Obama numbers even further back. In default, the good McCain numbers are picked up but you don't go quite far enough back to pickup good Obama numbers.

Clear as mud?

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thoughtful:

Florida
SurveyUSA 09/27 - 09/28 599 LV 48 47 McCain +1
The above speaks for itself.
There is so much left in this election.

I am not as extreme as Boomshak, but PA should be wider than this. Obama hasn't quite closed the deal but he's coming closer!

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Adrian B:

If he's winning PA by seven points that really brings Ohio into play. Remember, in every single recent election PA has been more Dem than Ohio but by only a few points (usually 4-9).

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thoughtful:

Florida
SurveyUSA 09/27 - 09/28 599 LV 48 47 McCain +1
The above speaks for itself.
There is so much left in this election.

I am not as extreme as Boomshak, but PA should be wider than this. Obama hasn't quite closed the deal but he's coming closer!

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Flashlight:

Turn it blue.

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RaleighNC:

+14 % registered democrat in this poll? Uh...yeah...sure...whatevs. It ain't that high, folks, but believe what you must.

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Shaft:

Apart from a mid sized polling sample, these guys stayed on track with their sampling. Good for BO, not so much for the John McNugget.
I think PA will switch to lighht blue shortly... but what's with the dearth of state polls?? Last week is was a new poll every time prevented a bridge to nowhere, this week...
Well then find out and get back to me, B$%^h!

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mrut:

I have a question for everyone here. Do you think Joe Biden is at all responsible for moving Obama's numbers up in PA, or is it strictly the financial crash that has scared people into focusing on the economy and therefore favoring the Dems?

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Tyler:

@PHGrl

This happens in several states and it has everything to do with McCain's convention bounce. McCain's bounce consisted of McCain gaining a significant amount of support from previously uncommitted voters, but it did not cause Obama to lose that much support. McCain's convention bounce was pretty quickly followed by the economic crisis, which is giving Obama a sharp rise in the polls.

What this means is this:

- "More sensitive" makes the graph not only notice that Obama is suddenly up a few points in the polls but also that McCain is suddenly down quite a lot of points compared to his post-convnention high. Therefore, large Obama lead.

- "Less sensitive" does not weight the Obama spike in the last week or so quite as much, but it ALSO does not weight McCain's brief convention bounce nearly as much. Which means that unlike "more sensitive" it does not see McCain as trending down from his convention bounce, but rather as staying relatively flat due to the bounce followed quickly by an anti-bounce. Since Obama's gains are more steady than McCain's rollercoaster, "less sensitive" also shows a significant (but smaller) Obama lead.

- The default is, as expected, a mixture of the two extremes. It's primary difference from the two previous methods are that like "more sensitive" it DOES see McCain's convention bounce (since it is relatively old and about two weeks long), but like "less sensitive" it does not react immediately to the past week's Obama spike (since it is relatively new and only about a week long). Therefore it does not yet report McCain as trending down from his bounce, but rather it is keeping him on his upward convention bounce trajectory until the economic spike is old/long enough to prove things otherwise. This leads to a smaller lead for Obama in this measurement, for the time being.

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macsuk:

thoughtful

Both Clintons and Biden are going to be spending alot of time in PA in fact the Gov is introducing all 3 of them at an event next week. PA will stay blue.

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boomshak:

Ok, is this poll meant as a JOKE?

PARTY WEIGHTINGS:
DEMOCRAT..................52%
REPUBLICAN............... 38%
INDEPENDENT.............. 8%
OTHER PARTY...............2%

Seriously, a 14 point sampling advantage to Democrats. Is that supposed to be funny?

Three-ringed-circus-fail.

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Hoosier:

It would seem that PA is beginning to move away from McPalin. Couple this with solid Obama leads in Iowa and Nex Mexico, plus Obama lean in Colorado and the Electoral math is starting to get dicey for McPalin.

It seems that mcPalin is pumping loads of money into OH, PA, and MI. I don't see McPalin taking MI and PA is moving away. That leaves OH, which Obama does not need. There are several other paths to 270 without Ohio.

OH, FL, NC, and VA are essential to McPalin getting to 270. If Obama takes the Kerry states and adds in CO, IA, and NM, its Game OVer for Grampa Simpson and Maude Flanders.

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boomshak:

Why is it you Obozonauts have NO PROBLEM with a 14 point sampling advantage being given to Democrats, but you go NUTS when Battleground gives a 2 advantage (over Rasmussen) to Republicans?

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boomshak:

People the sample is f*cked! For God's sake, get ur heads out of your backsides.

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JoelR:

Aaahhh. There we go. The expert has spoken.

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Tyler:

boomshak, the problem with the Battleground tracker is not party ID. The problem is that according to their demographics, 70% of the electorate is over age 45, which is absurd. We're not just talking about undersampling the "unreliable youth vote" - Battleground also severely undersamples perfectly reliable voters in the 25-45 age block. It's basically a poll of senior citizens.

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adocarbog:

boomshak:
Ok, is this poll meant as a JOKE?

PARTY WEIGHTINGS:
DEMOCRAT..................52%
REPUBLICAN............... 38%
INDEPENDENT.............. 8%
OTHER PARTY...............2%

Seriously, a 14 point sampling advantage

Yes that actually is the right PA cross section of voters. In 04 there was large advantage and this year it is much higher.

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boomshak:

@RaleighNC:

+14 % registered democrat in this poll? Uh...yeah...sure...whatevs. It ain't that high, folks, but believe what you must.

These Democrat Pollsters have no shame. A similar poll giving a similar oversampling to Republicans would have it about like this:

PARTY WEIGHTINGS:
DEMOCRAT..................34%
REPUBLICAN............... 39%
INDEPENDENT.............. 8%
OTHER PARTY...............2%

Now if we had a poll based upon THAT sample that showed McCain leading by 3, what would yu dems say?

I can just imagine.

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mirrorball:

To the folks saying the party ID is off, the percentages used in the poll are almost identical to the state's voter registration numbers. Dems are like 51% and GOP 38% according to the state's numbers.

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boomshak:

This poll isn't just a fail, it is a NUCLEAR FAIL.

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Tzal:

The sampling is only off by a few points:

http://www.dos.state.pa.us/elections/cwp/view.asp?A=1310&Q=446974

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lilyogini:

14% does seem a bit high, but if national pollsters are doing around 5-6%, PA has gone blue in the last 4 elections, I would think they have more dems than nationally. So. Perhaps 10% might have been more ideal.

But still appears to me that Obama has a lead here. Just not sure how much...

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JCK:

Current reg numbers in PA support the Party ID breakdown of this poll.

Boomshak, what is your basis for saying this poll overweights Dems?

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RS:

All the GOP nuts should look up their facts before commenting. If you are unable to use the Google, here's the relevant information:

http://www.dos.state.pa.us/elections/cwp/view.asp?A=1310&Q=446974

Registered Dems 51%, Republicans 38%

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Batony:

A tracking poll for Pa...cool.

I believe the outcome of this election hinges on Thursday night. If Palin is disastrous, then Obama wins big. She is the only spark the McCain has.

I brought this question up a couple of weeks ago...but does the McCain camp want to win? According to their calendar, their is only 1 campaign event for this week. They had none over the weekend. Meanwhile Obama was in NC, MI, Va and today in Co. Someone please explains this to me.

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PHGrl:

why arent the early Muhlenberg daily tracking polls entered for PA?

perhaps its because there is overlap with this poll..

but Muhlenberg is going to release PA numbers daily, 5 day rolling average it looks like..

and they started polling on Sept 19th..

Cant the Muhlenberg PA be treated like the national daily tracking?

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Hoosier:

Come on folks, give Boomer a break! I'm sure his party ID table (see following) is just as valid:

GOP 80%
Green Party 6%
Independent 5%
Toga Party 2%
Whig Party 2%
Bull Moose Party 2%
Dem 3%

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RymHerMan:

How pathetic....right wing nut jobs now have to attack polls just to keep their base focused in and think they actually have a chance. I guess the 8 point Gallup lead is wrong too. Face it, McSame's campaign has one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel.

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EdmondBrad:

The actual registration %'s are 50% D and 37.6% R...sounds pretty representitive to me.

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Sarah McPlain:

McCain to Tower: I'm hit, I'm hit. I'm going down. BAILING ... fzfzzfeftttt .....

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John:

If you look at the methodology, this poll is not weighted by party-id. It also come out with a similiar result to the SUSA poll (+13D) done a few days ago. There is about a 12 point advantage (to the democrats) in voter registration in PA, although that does not necessarily transform into a 12 point advantage in LVs.

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Batony:

With all that has happen to the McCain camp over the past week, I honestly believe they can live with being behind 7 points to Obama in PA at this point.

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Guailo:

@ Hoosier

You are right, but CO, IA, MI, PA, MN, WI, NM only gives Obama 269. He will have to carry either NH, VA, NV, or NC. My guess is NH will be the easiest, but tough call...momentum in VA looks good now too...

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Bonzi77:

@batony

Perhaps, but with the way Virgina, New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa are going, PA is his shot in the dark to win. Take PA off the board and McCain's paths to 270 are really hard to figure.

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Bonzi77:

@Guailo

Add Florida and Ohio to that list.

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Atomique:

"Why is it you Obozonauts have NO PROBLEM with a 14 point sampling advantage being given to Democrats, but you go NUTS when Battleground gives a 2 advantage (over Rasmussen) to Republicans?"

Because there's no problem weighting the Democrats +14 in a state where the Democrats have a +14 point advantage?

Because Battleground is just plain wrong in asserting that the Republicans have a +2 advantage nationwide?

You see, we outside of the Republican Party have these little things called facts that we like to pay attention to...

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sotonightthatimightsee:

"McCain is working hard in PA and it's slipping away. I would abandon the blue's if I were him. He has ZERO chance of winning a Kerry state. But hey, actually, no McCain, keep spending there and ignoring VA, NC. I like that!"


NON SENSE! I live near Muhlenberg college (the University that conducted this poll) and I can tell you..the Lehigh Valley is almost evenly split..with a slide edge going to Obambo because it is a democratic stronghold. Hillary spanked his behind here! The difference will be made in the suburbs of Philadelphia..this is why Gov. Palin was in the area this past weekend. Also, this does not reflect those "bitter" small town people that don't usually get polled.

Believe me..it may be a squeaker..but McCain/Palin will win PA. Prepare to be shocked on Nov. 4th!!

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Batony:

@Bonzi77,

Honestly, I know there seems to be momentum for Obama in Va, but in the end I still believe Va and NC stay with McCain. I believe Co or NV is Obama's best shot.

Now if the election were held tomorrow, then it's Obama's actually. But there is still a month to go, a huge VP debate and two more Pres debates. I noticed the last Pres. debate is on Oct. 15. I guarantee you after that, if McCain is still behind, hold on....he will have over 15 days to throw the kitchen sink, 5 of his 7 houses and anything at Obama and not have to answer to them at debate. That's when Rev. Wright reappears.

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Guailo:

@ bonzi

True, but I kinda think those might be harder...?

But hell, with this momentum...who knows!?

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cinnamonape:

I think what boomshak doesn't understand is that the results of many of the surveys in regards to party affiliation are the results of what "preference" or identification the respondant actually gives. Party preference is a result of the actual data.

When several polls that don't weight by this criteria show increasing response of being "Democrat" it suggests that more people out there ARE identifying with Democrats! No brainer!

The polls may weight data by sex, age, or other factors to arrive at their model, but most don't weigh by political affilaition since it is a "hypervariable".

Rassmussen "weights" its data for political affiliation based on factors extraneous to the data. It's not even clear what factors they use in doing that...so it leaves it open to suspicion.

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PHGrl:

Boomshak,

Go read the fine print. This poll does NOT weight for party affiliation.

moreover, the breakdown matches state voter registration breakdowns..

Perhaps you are still living in the past?
2004- D-47%, R 41%

http://www.dos.state.pa.us/elections/lib/elections/055_voter_registration_statistics/2004nov.pdf

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Batony:

Thank you to the 95 house Democrats and the 133 House Republicans who voted against that 700Billion dollar bailout.

Now Nancy Pelosi and friends, get back to work...

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Florida Voter:

People have to take off those rosie red sunglasses and put the blue tint ones on when it comes to PA. McCain will not win PA. He should pull his resources out of this state and concentrate on Indiana, Virginia and Florida. I just read that the Repubs finally bought $5Million in TV time in Indiana, their first major buy. McCain is failing. Almost a month left and we shall have a winner! :)

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rationalvoice:

I love how boomshak has retreated now that he has been completely disproved.
FAIL.

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@ sothatimightsee
If no one else is going to call you on your racist post, I will. His name is NOT "Obambo", it's Obama. Please get it right next time if you can.

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Paul:

You can download the PA current voter registration spreadsheet at
http://www.dos.state.pa.us/elections/lib/elections/055_voter_registration_statistics/currentstats/currentvotestats.xls
and changes in PA registration spreadsheet at
http://www.dos.state.pa.us/elections/lib/elections
/055_voter_registration_statistics/currentstats/partychangecount.xls

You will see the democratic advantage in registrations has increased. Specifically note the changes in voter registration this year.

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vandrop:

@boomshak

Go do some research before you speak.

http://www.dos.state.pa.us/elections/lib/elections/055_voter_registration_statistics/currentstats/currentvotestats.xls

This has the Democratic party affiliation at about 51%, and the Republican party affiliation at about 37.5%. A 13.5% spread. And if you remember how to round, 13.5% rounds up to 14%.

So yeah, registered Democrats in PA constitute a 14% advantage over registered Republicans.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

Obamatraveler:

You're a f-ing race baiting idiot! Is this the best you got, moron?

DEAL WITH IT..HE AIN'T WINNING PA..PERIOD!

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nktop:

Has anyone noticed that Obama is not really doing much to come up with a plan or even being around the action in Washington to push for the bill to be passed. He doesn't have a specific agenda on the bailout, is not around the action to work on it, but flying around the country playing the blame-game politics without offering solution or being an active part of it. Where is his ability and willingness to reach across, or even within, the isle to get things done? Too busy playing politics?

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