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PA: Obama 50, McCain 41 (Muhlenberg 9/27 - 10/1)

Topics: PHome

Muhlenberg College /
Morning Call
4-day Tracking Survey
9/27-10/1/08; 610 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Pennsylvania
Obama 50, McCain 41

 

Comments

Is this not a five day tracking poll?

1. 9/27
2. 9/28
3. 9/29
4. 9/30
5. 10/1

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Tyler:

Yes, this is a 5-day tracker. It's noted in the methodology - I think the Pollster summary just has a typo.

While it's nice to have frequent polling for PA, this poll is also kind of silly because they're only doing about 120 interviews per day, and PA is a pretty big state.

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Commander_King:

See ya later McStunt!

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Trosen:

Yes it's a small daily sample, but it's more or less in-line with other recent PA polls. The RNC and McCain camp are still dumping lots of $$ into PA, but I'm guessing that changes soon. They HAVE to start diverting money into McCain safe-havens they're losing.

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kerrchdavis:

Stick a fork in PA, shes done.

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carl29:

Wasn't Sarah in PA the other day? I think she's got some of that "Guliani effect," the closer/the more people see her, the less they like her. Same thing happened in Florida. She came to campaign and Obama's numbers started to raise :-) What a gimmick!!

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Trosen:

29, she is very good in certain settings and bad in others. It definitely seems here in FL her popluarity has NOSE-DIVED.. although I'm not totally sure why. I think the W.A.S.P.y gun-toting, church thing isn't playing too well with the demographics here in south FL. I think Hillary has done a good job of telling her disgruntled supporters "this woman is NOT me.. not even close. Polar opposites in fact.

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scott88:

PA was never a "swing" state to begin with....obama was gonna win it - just a question of by how much....
boomdumb - don't you have anything to say about all these polls??!! your fans await word of how these polls are biased and the liberals are giving false numbers....we NEED to hear from you boomstupid..!
i predict we don't hear from boomidiot again this election...

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Florida Voter:

Looks like the Keystone state will be one of the Keys to the Obama WH. I loved the Fox news report the other day in a diner in my old home town of Scranton, PA. The Fox news guy asked by a show of hands how many were for McCain, the camera panned around and maybe 3-4 hands were risen. Then they said how many for Obama and like 20 hands were risen. The Fox news guy then goes on to say, see it's split right down the middle here in Scranton.

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Scott88, I totally agree with you. I live in the Philadelphia suburbs which may be fiscally conservate but is socially liberal. Palin has been a bomb here. The past FOUR presidential elections in PA have gone to the democrats. Enough votes have come out of the SE to swing the elections to the dems. I would not be suprised if Obama took a 450,000 + vote lead out of the city of Philadelphia alone.

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Scott W:

@BOOMDUMP said it would be tied by today didn't he?

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Andy:

Looks like finally Mccain campaign is accepting reality. They are pulling out of Michigan, including all TV adds and appearances and will be focusing more on OH and FL. I guess Obama will be happy to focus more on OH and FL too and reduce his adds in Michigan.

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faithhopelove:

About a week ago, McCain's own pollster named his man's 3 best pickup opportunities--NH, WI, and PA. See:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/pi_20080927_1179.php

This PA poll, as well as numerous other recent PA polls, should cause McCain to narrow his wish list to 1 or 2. PA does not appear to be in play.

Morning Call's PA tracker shows the state trending toward Obama--the trend over the past week goes Obama +4, +5, +6, +7, +8, +7, and +9 (today). Even if this poll slightly over-estimates Obama's support, it is clear that PA is slipping away from McCain. Moreover, there is little if anything in this poll's internals to give McCain hope. Obama and Biden have much higher favorability ratings in PA than do McCain and Palin. Biden's net favorability is +19; Palin's net favorability is -3. Biden, who was born in Scranton, tours the state in about a week with Hillary.

14 consecutive polls have shown Obama ahead in PA. Before this string, a Big Ten poll showed a tie there. This poll had a sample that was only 5% African-American--despite the fact that 2004 exit polling found PA's African-American vote to be 13% (the most recent census numbers put PA's African-American population at 11%).

Today's Research 2000 tracker has Obama up 34 points in the Northeast--which includes PA (as well as NH).

Obama visited WI yesterday, visits MI today, and visits PA tomorrow. Springsteen campaigns for him in Philly on Saturday. Obama's strategy appears to be to put away these states now so that he can spend the last 4 weeks of the campaign in true toss-up states--NH, VA, NC, FL, OH, IN, MO, CO, and NV. I expect to see Obama in these 9 states almost exclusively beginning Saturday (when he visits VA). Biden will spend time in some of the same states, as well as in PA, and perhaps IA and NM. Bill Clinton will be campaigning for Obama in PA, OH, and NV.

PA is one of 4 states (including FL, CO, and NV) in which Obama has recently increased his ad spending. Previously, McCain had been out-spending Obama in PA.

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faithhopelove:

Andy:

Link?

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UpstateProgressive:

With the recent polls from PA, MI and MN, it looks like McCain is being force back onto the defensive, and he has a lot of territory to defend. If he can't pick up any Kerry states, and if he's more or less already lost IA and NM, which Bush took in '04, then McCain almost has to win every remaining Bush '04 state to win it.

That's a lot of defense: OH, FL, VA, IN, NC, CO, NV, MO and maybe WV. Obama leads several of those states as of today. It's tough to be McCain right now.

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bclintonk:

Yup. Jonathan Martin on Politico reports McCain is pulling out of Michigan:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_pulling_out_of_Michigan.html

Pennsylvania should be next. The only Kerry state where McCain still has any kind of shot is New Hampshire (4 electoral votes). With Iowa and New Mexico firmly in the Obama column, McCain needs a clean sweep of all the remaining Bush '04 states, including OH, FL, VA, and CO where Obama now leads, and IN, NC, NV, MO, and WV which are extremely close and recently moving in Obama's direction. It's like drawing an inside straight: it could happen, but I wouldn't put good money on it.

This could be building toward a landslide.

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ronnie:

McCain may be pulling out of PA next...RCP has Obama polling better in PA than MI...Time to start pressing that panic button.

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CTPonix4BHObama:

4 day, small sample tracking poll. Shows the trend...kinda. Thanks but no thanks, i'd like to see the next real PA poll.

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cinnamonape:

At some point the RNC is going to decide that the McCain campaign is a lost cause. They will start pumping money into the Senate and House races hoping to hold those. Saw some figures on the amounts the Democrats vs. Republican Congressional Committees have and the Dems now have about $50 million to about $4 million edge from what was parity before. The Republicans have very little in the bank.

Obama has been getting far more bang for his bucks while McCain has been spending his limited Presidential fund moneys on states like MI, Wisconsin, and PA with no chance to win over these now. And Iowa?

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