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PA: Obama 52, McCain 40 (Muhlenberg 10/19-23)


Muhlenberg College
10/19-23/08; 608 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Pennsylvania
Obama 52, McCain 40

 

Comments
miatch:

awww, helllzz yeah

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mandalorianarmy:

Looks like all of the hard work McCain is putting in PA is really paying off lol.

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Lechuguilla:

Pennsylvania is roughly 2.4 percent more Democratic than the country as a whole. Applying that number to this poll translates to an Obama national lead of:

7.2 percent.

(52.0 - 2.4 = 49.6.)
(40.0 + 2.4 = 42.4.)

49.6 - 42.4 = 7.2 percent national lead for Obama.

That sounds about right.

Lech

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BigTex:

Obama goes to Hawaii to be with his ailing grandmother and McCain is in PA, and Obama gets in increase. Ouch.

McCain is starting to morph into Dole, and Bush of '92. Grumpy old men. He has been taken out of his Maverick mold of 2000 and remade into a no-where man. Too anti-establishment for the far-right. The independents see him not as the old Maverick but as a sell out to get elected. The left who were intrigued by him now see his shortcomings in the VP pick and his irrational behavior in dealing with foreign policy and the economic situation.

This is becoming a landslide.

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cinnamonape:

I blame FOX/Rassmussen! After a spate of polls in Late September showing that the race had frozen with Obama having a 4-5 point lead, FOX/Ras came out with one at Obama +8. That broke the dam and since then it's been regaularly these double digit leads!

FOX - just a bloody MSM in the pocket of Obama!

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The Dude:

+2 from yesterday. When you have six different pollsters all release polls in PA ranging from 8-13 for BO, I just don't see this crashing for him in the next 11 days. Especially since McSame is still flailing at a coherant message and clothes-gate still has legs. I personally think BO's team leaked the "internal" poll to dupe McSame into thinking he could poach PA. The result: delusion and a whole bunch of wasted $.

As an aside, I read somewhere tonight it is thought McSame is down to his last $10 million or so for the final days of the election.

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imsomdude:

I Live in Montgomery County and I just can't see Pa flippin for McSame. Bush seemed to have a much stronger presence here 4yrs ago and still couldn't carry it. So, unless McSame has some plan to steal it somehow... Not if I can help it though. I'm going in to Philly on Nov 4th to intimidate some voter intimidators of my own.

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Dana Adini:

anyone know what Sean Hannity's pet pollster Zogby has in store for us 26 minutes from now??

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Scattaman:

I don't know...Guys I'm from Jamaica... and maybe its just the different type of news that I listen to... but I'm just scared about Pennsylvania... maybe it's John McCain's Strategy but I'm just queezy about the amount of time that the republicans are spending in the "keystone" state... trust me...Florida is not as near as important as how Pennsylvania is right now...

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hou04:

Today Hannity only petted TIPP poll and dismissed every other poll as "Whacko pollsters... part of Obama-mania media"... I guess that now includes Zogby and Rasmussen

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jeepdad:

Dont be shocked if Zogby shows an uptick for McCain of 2-3 points. It would be hard to maintain a 12 point lead for more than a day or two.

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Scattaman:

lol!!!... Quote taken from www.reason.com in regards to this whole stupidy of death by assocition... anyone remembers Gordon Liddy??!!

maybe BOOM the ASS CRACK remembers...

"Pressed further, McCain said he was ready to furnish what he asked of Obama: "Everything about any relationship that I've had I will make completely open and give a complete accounting of." Sure he will. Right after Sarah Palin becomes a Rastafarian."

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Dana Adini:

when TIPP starts treding Obama will pet Dailykos/r2k..whatever works

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hou04:

@jeepdad

Agreed. Probably obama by 9 or 10.

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Lechuguilla:

McCain's campaign doesn't seem to grasp the nature of their problem.

In their delusion, they think they can pull a rabbit out of a hat by winning Pennsylvania. They can't. Penn is more Dem. than the rest of the country, not less.

What they need to do is address their national numbers to their advantage. Then ...

The state numbers will fall in line accordingly.

By hammering Pennsylvania, he's like a guy who uses his two thumbs to plug a leak in a dam, not seeing that there are holes above him (Ohio), below him (Florida), to the right (North Carolina), to the left (Indiana) ... The whole dam is breaking apart.

Lech

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Dana Adini:

if you do the math on all the state polls and weight them correctly u will get obama + 7 maybe with the state polls today + 8 max.

12 is as insane as the TIPP poll

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hou04:

@Dana Adini

McCain was winning the 18-24 vote today by 52 points! LOL!

How can they even publish that?? Plus, they put an asterisk on it and say they can't find enough 18-24 people ("small sample")

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Dana Adini:

the Tipp poll is obscene.

Kerry lost to Bush by 1.5%. Obama is outpolling Kerry in every single state. In some states such as, VA, NC, Georgia, Wis, Michigan,Iowa, NM, MT, SD,PA he's outpolling kerry's results by double digits.

Unless all these state polls are wrong, there is no way this race is +1%.......National polls are sampling a weighted average of 40 per state......that's why these polls are all over the place

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Dana Adini:

i did a simple worksheet. took 2004 states weights and applied RCP and 538 averages they came up O +6 and 7.

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hou04:

@Dana Adini

I am ready for all this to be over. Wish Nov. 4 was tomorrow.

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Basil:

@Dana

I yield to your number crunching skills, Dana, but I think the turnout for Big O may still yield a 10%+ landslide.

As a Chinese proverb says, "Everyone lends a hand to the falling wall."

Obama Tsunami!

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falcon79:

READ THIS AND WEEP, BOOMCRAP:
http://election-projection.net/

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The_Huntsman:

McCain will slip even further in PA tomorrow when the Pittsburgh police announce that his supporter faked the "face-slashing" attack.

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common sense:

OK : Apparantly it looks like it's over. Boom is spent.

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The Dude:

Zogby natl 10/24: Obama +10.3

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Lechuguilla:

Dana Adini: "Unless all these state polls are wrong, there is no way this race is +1% ..."

That's why it is important to consider both the national numbers and the state numbers in combo.

If Obama was ahead by just 1 percent nationally, he would not be leading in North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, or Florida. All these states are Republican states. Indeed, four years ago at this time, Kerry was trailing in nearly all Republican states, and barely ahead in Democratic states like Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

You can clearly see the delusion in people like Drudge, Hannity, etc. They only see what they want to see.

Lech

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Dana Adini:

lol falcon

i would go that far 538 gives 5% chance..but I like it

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Scattaman:

Seeing that Pennsylvania's poll numbers are running near California's number... could McCain think that they can turn California??!!...

And this is what is so disconcerting... how can Penn be running like California??!!! Wow...just Wow!!! anyway... If I was Obama...this would make me campaign even harder

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Dana Adini:

this is an actual post at davidwissing.com

"Folks

Finally……Zogby broke the drought and showed movement to McCain:

Obama 51.3
McCain 41.0

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1607

Marv"

or

"so that’s down to 10 pts from 12

good news"


lmao..I go there when I get bored and taunt them or act like a real GOP nut and say goofy stuff

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bmrKY:

@ Dana

LOL. Now we'll have to put up with boom all day tomorrow screaming about how McCain is surging, yet he will never tell us exactly how McCain can win the popular vote with Obama usually polling above 50% and McCain rarely polling above 45%. Nor will boom explain how McCain can win the electoral college when he is down in over half of the red swing states-- ALL of them being states that McCain MUST win in order to win the election.

Good luck with your "tightening" storyline, boom. McCain can't even get the lead in the crappy Zogby poll that only gives the dems a 2 point advantage (when it's more like a 7 or 8 point advantage), nor in the crappy AP poll where almost half of those surveyed were evangelical Christians. Boomshat, you truly are a stupid, moronic, fool... but I guess that's what makes you "special"

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Basil:

@ Lechuguilla

Seeing only what one wants to see is all too human, alas, but R's do seem especially prone to it, as you suggest. It's the fundamentalist tendency writ large.

D's get bogged down trying to see all sides of every issue, while R's just seem to go along with whatever simplistic strong-father program they happen to latch onto. It's an aversion to complexity and a morbid fear of uncertainty. W would seem to be the avatar of that mentality.

Garrison Keillor once claimed (sorry if I'm paraphrasing, Mr. K) that R's have more fun at parties because they don't have so much on their mind to worry about.

He also joked that the problem with Baptists is that they don't hold them under water long enough. I don't think he was thinking about waterboarding, though.

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common sense:

@ Big Mike : What do you think that President Obama needs to do. Conservatives like you have integrity. Us LIBS do not want to shove you face into the coming disaster. Well maybe - a little bit - just a sniff. Now that an Obama win appears almost cetain - how do we heal the breach?

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joethedummer:

yessss we cannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

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Rollin08:

"falcon79:

READ THIS AND WEEP, BOOMCRAP:
http://election-projection.net/"

Shhhh don't tell him... it's kind of fun watching them get like this. Isn't it? : )

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Vokoban:

Well, Nate Silver projects McCain's chances towards Nov. 4th. So there's a lingering winning chance of 3.7%.

These 3.7 consist of:

0.1% = Obama dies of a heart attack before Nov. 4th
0.2% = Putin attacks and occupies the USA
0.1% = Jesus appears in Real Virginia and life on Olberman, endorsing McCain
0.3% = Palin promises a table dance on FOX news in case she gets elected
3.0% = Some whipped up right wing nut shoots Obama

Other than that the race is over.

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Vokoban:

Oh, I forgot: Good morning, America!

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McShame:

Wow..did anyone read this? Sounds like a complete meltdown within the McCain camp. The blame game has already started. I think they realize that this election is getting out of hand and that their internal polls are most likely confirming what we are seeing in the national polls.

Boomcrap, this one is especially for you. Read and weep, my friend.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14891.html

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Rollin08:

The more people see Obama the more support he gets. This is a great thing to be a part of. Seeing all these people coming together. This is going to be great for our environment and our quality of life.

His economic policies are spot on. More spending money to lower income people will produce more demand for goods and services. Businesses won't go out of business when they have all this demand, you'll never whining about that. Even if they did someone else will always step up to provide those services. Hell, they try to stifle drug trade and even that doesn't work because there's a demand. Someone will always step up. It's the way capitalism works.

The fear is if all the money gets horded by just a few individuals while the rest of us are poor. Then we produce no/little demand. And the %1 with %50 of our wealth can't even spend it all. That's why the trickle down economics and the bush tax cuts didn't help.

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falcon79:

@ROLLIN:
hehehe true true it is fun to see the wingnuts go loony :)

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rbyanes:

I gotta agree with the Dude. I think Obama's camped leaked that memo to tie McCain up in PA. There's been no indication of a change in Obama's schedule for PA, and no other poll showing MCCain anywhere close to 2%. For all we know Rendell is in on the manuever. Just another genius piece of psychological warfare from Barack's camp.

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Vokoban:

"Wow..did anyone read this? Sounds like a complete meltdown within the McCain camp."

I just wonder who'd be so stupid to actually employ one of these losers.
It's not that they ran a ****ty campaign. And they did run a ****ty campaign.
But it's the obvious fact that they severely lack character.

A question to everybody running an enterprise: would you consider employing someone who ran away finger-pointing last time his employer was in difficulties?

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maddiekat:

Daily Kos O 52 McLiar 40

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southern angler:

Obama's own internal polls show their lead in PA has slipped to only 2 points. Since Obama numbers are heading down it would be hard to say how low they will be by Nov4

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Viperlord:

Boom****! Get in here and explain to us how reality has a liberal bias.

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Obama008:

Southern angler,

Wrong, Internal polls match polls that Muhlenberg and Rass are putting out. + 10 to 9 point lead all over the 50% mark for obama.

I live in Bucks county just outside of PA, I live around about 4 republicans and they are all voting for Obama. people in this area of the state hate Republicans because of bush.

He is leading in south central PA, the only dems that have done that are Turman, Kennedy, Clinton, Carter.

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Obama008:

*just out side of philly.

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JerryTheAngel:

In PA, the Democrats have registered over 200,000 voters since June 1. Their lead over Republicans statewide is 1.2 million, double the gap in 2004. This election "saw the biggest switch ever" from one party to another in Pennsylvania, says pollster Michael Young.

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I live in Montgomery County, PA and have actually met a lot of Democrats who are registered Republicans. It seems that their logic is that they can then vote in the Republican primaries to weed out the really bad candidates. Makes no sense to me but I'm sure the local Republicans think they have those votes nailed, when little do they know..... I think that maybe McShame is still pushing hard here because he saw all the enormous McCain / Palin signs put up by the pathetic, provincial and xenophobic residents of Montgomery County . These signs are the size of bulletin boards. I guess they are using Republican logic: If I hang a really, really big sign, then my wish will come true! :-)

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