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PA: Obama 53, McCain 41 (SurveyUSA-10/21-22)

Topics: PHome

SurveyUSA
10/21-22/08; 620 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Pennsylvania
Obama 52, McCain 41

 

Comments
alankeyesisawesome:

It's not over till the fat lady sings. any fair voters in PA should go to vote for McCain and stop being mislead by these liberal freak polls.

YES WE CAN!

McCain/Palin 2008!

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Viperlord:

McCain surge?

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Terranus:

If McCain wins Pennsylvania, those pollsters are the next ones to surge the jobless rate ...

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durek:

alankeyesisawesome:

First you steal the change mantra, now the Yes We Can. No plans, no chance! That should be your call.

But I know your just trying to get under our skin now. Not gonna happen.

I think McCain and Palin spending so much time in PA have cost them votes. The more we see, the less we like.

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BrookLynda:

alankeyesisawesome is....awesome!

Who is the fat lady in this scenario? McPlanecrash's first wife, mother of his children, whom he dumped so he could marry the Cryptkeeper?

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VonnegutIce9:

McCain was duped by Obama's "internals" leak. He chose the state he was most confident in winning and made his opponent think that he was only up +2...McCain and his campaign are chumps...how many days did they waste there? How much of his millions did he spend there? This only confirms to me how sorry a president McCain would make if he can be outmaneuvered like that...how many traps would he fall for as President...

Obama's campaign is extremely gifted as strategists. It's plain to me that McCain only has "tactics" and no "strategy"...I guess he DOESN'T really know the difference between the two! Ha! Sucker!

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bpd1069:

Is McCain winning in ANY of the states he is campaigning in?

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M2:

I believe the Surfari's "Wipeout" has just moved back into heavy rotation on the PA airwaves.

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symblized:

The Barna Group
617 LV
O 50
M 37

http://www.barna.org/FlexPage.aspx?Page=BarnaUpdateNarrow&BarnaUpdateID=319

Internals weird tho... O & M tied for born-again vote.

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BrookLynda:

Typo in the hyperlink text. Should be O 53, not 52.

Wow, a 12-point lead.

Question for Le Boomshak: even McPlanecrash concedes he can't win the election without PA. Do you also concede the election?

Someone asked you earlier - what is your McC win scenario?

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mysticlaker:

About that wardrobe …

There are still aspects of the Republican National Committee’s shopping sprees on behalf of Gov. Sarah Palin and her family that are murky.

Some of the fashion experts consulted Wednesday, for instance, about the $150,000 in purchases that appeared on Federal Election Commission records were puzzled by where all of that money had gone, given what they had seen of Ms. Palin’s wardrobe.

Consider also the $4,902.45 charge at Atelier New York, a high-end men’s store, presumably for Ms. Palin’s husband, Todd, the famous First Dude.

Karlo Steel, an owner there, said he had gone through the store’s receipts for September, twice, and found no sales that matched that amount, nor any combination of sales that added up to the total. Because the store carries aggressively directional men’s wear, he caters to a small clientèle and knows most of his customers by name, as well as the history of their purchases.

When The Caucus called Mr. Steel back to ask him to also check August sales just in case, Mr. Steel said he found one purchase that came close to the amount in the campaign finance reports but said that he knew who that customer was and it certainly was not Mr. Palin. Neither was it Jeff Larson, the Republican consultant who showed up

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mysticlaker:

ClothesGate!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/23/wardrobe-mysteries-linger/

About that wardrobe …

There are still aspects of the Republican National Committee’s shopping sprees on behalf of Gov. Sarah Palin and her family that are murky.

Some of the fashion experts consulted Wednesday, for instance, about the $150,000 in purchases that appeared on Federal Election Commission records were puzzled by where all of that money had gone, given what they had seen of Ms. Palin’s wardrobe.

Consider also the $4,902.45 charge at Atelier New York, a high-end men’s store, presumably for Ms. Palin’s husband, Todd, the famous First Dude.

Karlo Steel, an owner there, said he had gone through the store’s receipts for September, twice, and found no sales that matched that amount, nor any combination of sales that added up to the total. Because the store carries aggressively directional men’s wear, he caters to a small clientèle and knows most of his customers by name, as well as the history of their purchases.

When The Caucus called Mr. Steel back to ask him to also check August sales just in case, Mr. Steel said he found one purchase that came close to the amount in the campaign finance reports but said that he knew who that customer was and it certainly was not Mr. Palin. Neither was it Jeff Larson, the Republican consultant who showed up in campaign finance records as the one who footed the initial bill before being reimbursed by the R.N.C.

The store carries expensive cut-up T-shirts and tricky suits from avant-garde designers, like Raf Simons, Yohji Yamamoto and Ann Demeulemeester, none of whom typically create beltway-appropriate attire.

“We have no recollection of that sale and no idea what they are talking about,” Mr. Steel said.

There was similar confusion when The Caucus spoke with Jon and Wing Witthuhn, owners of Pacifier, a high-end children’s boutique in Minneapolis, where records show two charges of $98, one at Pacifier’s downtown location and another at its store in the northeast part of the city.

Mr. Witthuhn clearly recalled one of the $98 charges because it was the night of Sept. 3, just hours before Ms. Palin’s speech at the Republican National Convention. A woman burst into his store, he recalled, saying she needed outfits for several children, including a 6-month-old boy. Mr. Witthuhn explained they did not carry clothes beyond toddler age but helped her pick out a blue-striped convertible romper by Egg Baby ($60), a matching monkey-ear hat ($32) and Trumpette baby socks ($6).

After the woman explained her shopping was related to the convention and paid with a credit card number she read off of a Blackberry, it dawned on Mr. Witthuhn that he was potentially helping to outfit one of the country’s most famous infants—Trig Palin, Ms. Palin’s youngest.

Sure enough, when Mr. Witthuhn turned on the television that night, there was Trig Palin wearing the outfit purchased at Pacifier, right down to the socks—but sans the monkey-ear hat.

But as for the other $98 charge, both Mr. Witthuhn and his wife, Wing, were stumped. After going through their receipts, Mrs. Witthuhn found another $98 purchased on Sept. 9 but it was for clothing for a 2-year-old — the Palins do not have a 2-year-old.

The purchase was a little black t-shirt featuring the Ramones, as well as a striped hoodie, a pair of pants with a tiger on it and a pair of cargo pants, all from Tea Collection.

“Sounds like somebody is using it for personal use,” Mrs. Witthuhn said.

When Republican officials were queried, they said they had no concerns about any illegitimate charges and said they considered the matter closed.

At least one mystery, however, has been solved.

The F.E.C. records showed a “Lisa L. Kine” was reimbursed for more than $2,000 in charges, including those made at Pacifier, as well as others at Macy’s, the Gap, Steinlauf & Stoller, a sewing supply store in New York, and Oshman Brothers, for “tailoring supplies.” The New York address listed traces to Lisa Kline, not Kine. Could this be the mystery stylist for Ms. Palin?

Some blogs jumped to the conclusion that this must be Lisa Kline, the owner of several trendy boutiques in Los Angeles often frequented by celebrities, including Paris Hilton and Britney Spears.

The blog, daddytypes.com, fueled the speculation by e-mailing the Witthuhns a video of Ms. Kline, and Mr. Witthuhn said he was “pretty sure it’s her! CRAZY!!!”

Mrs. Witthuhn said today that her husband was “85 percent” sure but not 100 percent.

Calls on Wednesday by The Caucus to a business and home phone number found for the R.N.C.’s Lisa Kline in New York were not returned.

But a search of business records identifies the Los Angeles Lisa Kline as Lisa W. Kline, not L.

And Kate Diamond, a spokeswoman for Lisa Kline in Los Angeles, e-mailed that she wished she could accept the publicity from the connection but, alas, “Lisa has done no shopping for the Palins.”

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NB:

Way to keep the typo streak going, Pollster.com. One of these days.

Oh, maybe you didn't understand that.

Wya ot kepe hte yotp strak gngio, pllostern.cmo

Better?

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carl29:

NOW: This SurveyUsa has a +11% advantage for the Democrasts, Dem. 52% Rep. 41%. Obama leds by 12%.

SurveyUSA 10/21 - 10/22 620 LV 4.0
Obama 53 McCain 41, with a 12% party ID advantage for Dem.


BEFORE: The previous SurveyUsa had a +19% advantage for the Democrats, Dem. 54% Rep. 35%. Obama led by 15%.

SurveyUSA 10/11 - 10/13 516 LV 4.4
Obama 55 McCain 40, with a 19% party ID advantage for Dem.

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MDB1974:

Any numbers coming out on CO today?

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Kile Thomson:

Questions persist over the $150,000 in fashion purchases made by the RNC for Gov. Palin and her family.

One retailer listed next to a $5,000 purchase: “We have no recollection of that sale and no idea what they are talking about.”

Fashion experts say they're puzzled where all the money has gone.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/23/wardrobe-mysteries-linger/#more-6787

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Kile Thomson:

CBS Poll: Voters Increasingly View McCain As Negative

The latest CBS News/New York Times poll will be released at 6:30pm ET today but a sneak peak at it shows that an increasing number of voters see John McCain as running a negative campaign while more see Obama as explaining what he would do as president.

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/10/23/politics/horserace/entry4541308.shtml


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JerryTheAngel:

The latest CBS News/New York Times poll will be released at 6:30pm ET today but a sneak peak at it shows that an increasing number of voters see John McCain as running a negative campaign while more see Obama as explaining what he would do as president.

Sixty four percent of registered voters said McCain is spending more time attacking his opponent, up from 61 percent who said that just over a week ago and from 53 percent in late September. Just 27 percent said he is spending more time explaining what he would do, compared to 69 percent who said that about Obama. Just 22 percent said they thought Obama was spending more time attacking McCain, down from 35 percent who said so in late September.

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NextAmericanChapter:

McCain is wasting his time in PA. Their distaste for Republicans far outweighs any negative feelings that some may have about Obama.

One caveat though...Obama needs to spend "street money" to GOTV in Philly and Pittsburgh just as Hillary did in the primaries. The "I'm-a-new-type-of-politician" shtick won't cut it in these two cities. If he doesn't spend street money, he'll still win but by a much narrower margin.

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

NB - chill -dude.

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NorseSoccer:

What is up with all the media stories today saying that Pennsylvania is a possible McCain win? Looking at the history of the polling here on pollster, I can not see a single reason to think that is true.

Unless we think that all pollsters are toooootally wrong.

It's so consistent. It's not like we have the crazy up and down polling of West Virginia or the very close race polling of North Carolina.

I think that damn liberal media is just trying to make it look like there is an actual race so that people will continue to watch the news.

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ctj:

Did anyone see the IBD/TIPP tracking poll? Somehow McCain is leading Obama 73-24 among the youngest set of voters? There is no way that can be right.

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PortlandRocks:

I just don't GET the McCain campaign. It's as if they are DEAF. POLL AFTER POLL tells them the the negative is NOT working this morning. I watched him campaign in FL this morning, or wherever the hell he was, and it was BITCH BITCH BITCH about Obama. He literally, for 20 min. did not give ONE specific policy.

In addition, is it me being optimistic, or will this SPREAD THE WEALTH ATTACK on Obama WORK THE OPPOSITE? What middle class American WOULDN'T want to see the wealth spread back to the 90's level? Wierd campaign. ****ing wierd.

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chrisinnc:

I am so tired of the McCain campaign, the mainstream media, and republican blog trolls pretending that an announcement/leak that a campaign is 'focusing' on a state is the same thing as that candidate actually being viable in a state.

McCain has not led in a poll in PA since April. He has trailed by single digits for a month. Speculating that support might be 'soft' is just that - speculation. I've seen people say, "well, we could still win 270 if we lost PA by doing x,y, and z." This is pointless. Obama has a healthy, large lead in PA. If, after McCain has started to spend time/money there (which, I might add, he's already been doing all summer), the numbers begin to close to the MoE, THEN we can start speculating "what if McCain flipped PA..." Until that point, it's the same as saying "well, someone said that they heard that maybe Obama was going to make a play for Alabama, so the Republicans better start finding another way to win 9 electoral votes."

Complete and total horse****. But I guess, at this point, I really shouldn't expect anything different from Team McCain, the "tie game!" obsessed media, or conservative spinmeisters who just know in their heart-of-hearts that real 'mericans wouldn't elect no black muslin, so there must be a-somethin' wrong with these here polls.

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DTM:

Well, one of the reasons the media is probably not just accepting the consistent poll results in Pennsylvania is the memory of all the pollsters getting NH wrong. Of course the likely explanations of the NH result probably won't apply to PA, but I think the media did (properly) learn the lesson that polling can be systematically off, particularly this far out.

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NextAmericanChapter:

@NorseSoccer:

The media has to find a way to make it seem like it is close. Nationally they do it by focusing on dumbass polls like AP and IBD. State-by-state, they suggest that the electoral college is close by speculating that PA is a toss-up (contrary to all available info).

It's not personal, just business.

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BrookLynda:

Boom, KipTin, et al, since (I assume) you helped pay for Gov. Palin's wardrobe makeover I gotta give you high marks on money well spent. HockeyMILF be lookin' mighty fine.

In particular, that tight pencil skirt she wore at the debate, whenever they cut to the camera that showed them from behind . . . man. Spilled my chardonnay all over the cheese platter.

But are you pissed they're giving it all to charity? Talk about redistribution of wealth.

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laguna_b:

@VonnegutIce9:

Re: Pennsylvania strategy by Obama....Rendell came out and begged for more visits by Obama along with the internals "leak". I too thought that strange that virtually every poll showed Pa. out of the game and wondered if Obama was gaming McCain to draw him into dumping critical resources diverting from other battleground states. I thought so at the time and do now, that you are right! They figured Mccain was stupid enough to take the bait and they were right!

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Stonecreek:

SUSA is a pretty trashy hit-and-miss pollster which reflects its customers: Local TV stations in mid-sized markets who want the "prestige" of airing their "own" polls for their viewers.

That said, the internals of this one from PA look better than most.

However, with this pollster these could simply be made-up numbers from a fill-in-the-blank form by a Sophomore poly-sci student.
"Make it look good, kid. Here, use these numbers from CBS and WaPo. Our client won't know the difference".

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JCK:

Al Giordano has a good take on the PA strategy: It's designed to get the media to stop saying "Obama is leading all the Kerry states, plus a bunch of states that Bush won in 2004. If Obama wins just one of these states he will win. McCain must take ALL of these states." The overriding tone of this discussion is very discouraging for McCain supports.

By putting PA into "play," it changes the campaign/media narrative from "McCain has but one path to 270" to "If McCain can flip PA..."

http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/panic-room-whats-mccains-pennsylvania-gambit

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chrisinnc:

"However, with this pollster these could simply be made-up numbers from a fill-in-the-blank form by a Sophomore poly-sci student."

They could be. However, the important thing to see w/ these poll numbers is that they line up pretty much exactly w/ the Pollster Avg, the Muhlenberg/AMC daily tracker, and most other polls.

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ericsp23:

The previous SUSA poll, from 10/13, had Obama +15, so today's poll is actually +3 for McCain.
The same is true of today's Muhlenberg poll too. The last Muhlenberg poll, from 10/17, had Obama +13 and today's was +10, also a 3 point swing toward McCain.
As an Obama supporter, this makes me nervous. Obama should nip this in the bud and start focusing on the state too.

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Nowukkers:

In terms of the $150k fashion purchases, it would be nasty for McCain if somebody padded the accounts there - as seems to be the implication. In other words, he can't even police waste in his own campaign - how good is he going to be a policing government waste?

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DTM:

@chrisinnc

As one of the people who has played the hypothetical "What if PA flipped?" game, I will briefly defend the practice.

I first of all agree there is no real evidence the public polling is wrong. Accordingly, I think it is very likely McCain has no more chance in PA than in any other state where he is similarly far behind.

That said, we do have a considerable period left until the election, and things could change. For one thing, it is possible the polls will systematically close in McCain's favor. It is also possible that McCain, say through devotion of resources and tailoring of message, will find a way to make them close even more in Pennsylvania. If all that happens, Pennsylvania could in fact end up within reach for McCain.

So, as an exercise in caution, I don't think it is unreasonable to come up with contingency plans in case all that happens. The Obama Campaign may never need them, but one would think it is better to have thought about these scenarios in advance anyway.

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Stonecreek:

@chrisinnc:

Yes, I agree that the SUSA numbers are plausible and well in line with other dependable polls. That's why I say they are just as likely plagarized from those polls as they are the result of scientific polling by SUSA. No matter. Obama is up by what is conventionally considered an unassailable margin in PA.

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Stonecreek:

@ DTM:

Let's say that McCain could flip PA. But at what cost? It is almost certain that if he were to devote the resources (time, money) to PA to flip it, then his campaign would certainly suffer fatally in some other critical state. "What doth it profiteth a man to win PA and lose the World"?

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chrisinnc:

@DTM - I agree. I am not one of those people who believes the election is 'in the bag'. I just think that PA is no more likely to flip than any of the other states that Obama is up by 8-10 points in (and has had a consistent margin that large).

What annoys me is not so much that people report on different scenarios, but that many people are acting like the mere fact that McCain is going to make a play for the state translates to it being a tied state already.

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lhtk:

Amazingly, considering McCain's "PA strategy," the PA polls out today are about the most consistent of any state I've seen in a short period of time. Five PA polls today (so far): O +10, O +13, O +10, O +10, O +12. How could there possibly be any more of a resounding statement that McCain's strategy looks to be a huge mistake (not that he had many options)?

Until now, I've dismissed the idea of a deception by Obama's side re that alleged email from Obama's camp that said that they were only up by two there. But, based on the incredibly consistent PA numbers, both over the past few days and from a variety of different pollsters, I'm beginning to wonder if it's possible. And Obama or Biden haven't been to PA in awhile either, have they?

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laguna_b:
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chrisinnc:

@ericsp:

Let's say that the difference between Obama +11 and obama +15 in the SUSA poll or the difference between Obama +15 and obama +11 (depending on the day) in the AMC/Muhlenberg tracker is real movement and not just deviation in polls.

My parents back at home in suburban Philadelphia tell me they see far more McCain ads than Obama ads. McCain/Palin have been criss-crossing the rural part of the state furiously. With all that effort (again, let's for the benefit of the doubt give you that this is real "movement") for the last 10 or 11 days, McCain has moved 3%. Another 10 or 12 days to election day with the same type of "movement" (and again, I'm doing this for the sake of argument - I don't believe that there's been movement or that movement will continue to McCain) would bring Obama down to +7...

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DTM:

@ericsp23

If you go back to early October, the Morning Call poll was showing around a ten point lead, but with more undecideds than now. What happened next is a few undecideds broke to Obama, giving him a bigger lead. Now a few more undecideds have broken to McCain, narrowing the lead back to around ten points. But Obama's support didn't go down, and with him above 50% and there being fewer undecideds, he is actually in a better position now than when he had the same lead back in early October.

@Stonecreek

Absolutely. In part that is why I think it is worth a brief look at the "What if?" scenarios: it turns out Obama could make up for losing PA by taking several different combinations of Bush states where he currently leads in the polling. And some of those states might get easier for Obama to win if McCain is even shorter on resources and tailoring his message just to win PA.

@chrisinnc

I understand and agree. In fact, I am quite familiar with PA, and I strongly suspect that what McCain might have in mind for PA would actually backfire in the suburbs of Pittsburgh and Philly and end up being a net negative.

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M2:

Anyone with a functioning brain had to know Obama was going to do better than Kerry in PA. Race or no race, Pennsylvanians vote their wallets.

In his pursuit of PA, McCain's allowed IA, NM and CO to slip away and that is, quite literally, election over.

The only drama left in this puppy is the size of Obama's victory. That's going to dominate the news cycle in the not-too-distant future.

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johncoz:

The problem for McCain is that when you are losing by this much no strategy is going to look plausible. Any hope of victory is premised on the polls swinging your way in the final week. In that context, he may as well try PA as anywhere else

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Dana Adini:

Raw data from NC early voting available. If you take these numbers and apply them to Survey USA and Ras crosstabs, Obama has asignificant lead.

data is available at

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Dem Gop Other Total
Onestop 439,754 174,733 122,214 736,701
Civilian 25,645 49,336 14,391 89,372
Military 1,448 1,501 1,104 4,053
Overseas 891 441 583 1,915
467,738 226,011 138,292 832,041
56.22% 27.16% 16.62%
Obama McCain Spread Spread
SUSA Model 55.42% 39.58% 15.84% 131,767
Ras Model 59.76% 38.63% 21.13% 175,806

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M2:

@johncoz

Exactly right. McCain has already, for all intensive purposes, lost. He's just kicking around PA hoping for a miracle.

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kerrchdavis:

McCain is "SURGING"

Thursday, October 23
Race (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Pennsylvania SurveyUSA Obama 53, McCain 41 Obama +12
Kansas SurveyUSA McCain 53, Obama 41 McCain +12
Texas Rasmussen McCain 54, Obama 44 McCain +10
National Rasmussen Reports Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7
National Gallup (Traditional)* Obama 50, McCain 46 Obama +4
National Gallup (Expanded)* Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
National Hotline/FD Obama 48, McCain 43 Obama +5
West Virginia Orion Strategies (D) McCain 49, Obama 44 McCain +5
Ohio Big10 Battleground Obama 53, McCain 41 Obama +12
Pennsylvania Big10 Battleground Obama 52, McCain 41 Obama +11
Michigan Big10 Battleground Obama 58, McCain 36 Obama +22
Minnesota Big10 Battleground Obama 57, McCain 38 Obama +19
Wisconsin Big10 Battleground Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13
Iowa Big10 Battleground Obama 52, McCain 39 Obama +13
Indiana Big10 Battleground McCain 41, Obama 51 Obama +10
Illinois Big10 Battleground Obama 61, McCain 32 Obama +29
National IBD/TIPP Obama 45, McCain 44 Obama +1
Pennsylvania Morning Call Obama 52, McCain 42 Obama +10
National GWU/Battleground Obama 49, McCain 45 Obama +4
Ohio Quinnipiac Obama 52, McCain 38 Obama +14
Florida Quinnipiac Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13
Pennsylvania National Journal/FD Obama 51, McCain 41 Obama +10
Minnesota National Journal/FD Obama 50, McCain 40 Obama +10
Wisconsin National Journal/FD Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13
Montana Montana State U. McCain 40, Obama 44 Obama +4
California PPIC Obama 56, McCain 33 Obama +23

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Kile Thomson:


Florida

St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll

Obama 49, McCain 42


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johncoz:

For the record, SUSA actually is the second highest rated pollster in terms of introduced error in 538's analysis (Ras is third).

This is different to sampling error, with which he often has a problem because he habitually uses samples in the 600-700 range ie 4% MOEs.

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NextAmericanChapter:

Obama up by 7 in Florida (St. Petersburg poll).

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vmval1:

This from Dan Balz. I place his reporting right at the top of the list. Never biased.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/23/polls_show_mccain_leaning_into.html?hpid=topnews

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Pacific moderate:
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Paul:

Adjusted for 2004 exit poll:
By gender: Obama +12
By race: Obama +13
By party Id: +9
By ideology: +16

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M2:

Crazy Tracy - "I will pray for him. He knows what the right decision is?"

Yep, divorce.

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Jeff:

If Obama's internals were really showing a closer race wouldn't he actually be spending time there instead of IN, WV? The "memo leak" was an easy GOTV play.

McCain wasn't tricked into fighting for PA. He's there because It's his ONLY option to get to 270. Here are the facts:

1) The dramatic shift in VA caught the McCain campaign off-guard, Iraq style. They had no clue how to respond. They didn't have the boots on the ground to stop the bleeding. If he had a few more weeks he might be able to get it back but the clock is running out. VA's 13EV are lost.

2) No other blue state offers enough electoral votes to realistically get McCain to 270. IA is only 7EV. He would need MO & NV too.

3) Without PA McCain has to win virtually every single battleground state: NH, NV, CO, NM, VA, MO, VA.

4) Obama needs to win 1 of the following 6 states and McCain simply cannot win this election: NC, IN, GA, FL, OH, WV.

Unless these polls are completely wrong to a degree we've never seen before in the history of statistical polling of Presidential elections there are no realistic paths to 270 left for McCain that don't include PA.

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