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POLL: ABC/Post National


ABC News ('08 election story, results-pdf; Gas story, results)
Washington Post (election story, results, gas prices story)
n=1,125 adults, interviewed June 12-15

National:

Obama 48%, McCain 42%

Obama 49%, McCain 45% (RV)

George Bush as President: 29% approve, 68% disapprove

Have recent price increases in gasoline caused any financial hardship for you or others in your household, or not?

77% Yes
23% No

[Earlier update: Our colleague Marc Ambinder has apparently seen a sneak peak of the rest of the results from this survey. We will update this post later tonight if more links become available].

 

Comments
Nickberry:

The answer is YES. $4.15/gallon and my car gets excellent gas mileage. And food prices are crazy going up. My teenage son has to have 50 hours of driving time experience to get his drivers license. Good thing he got a summer job so he can pay for the gas.

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marctx:

37% of Clinton supporters will not support Obama, but only 24% will vote for McCain. We need to get that other 13% to vote McCain.

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jsh1120:

I gave up looking for aggregate consistency in the electorate's views many, many years ago. But the results here strike me as more than usually inconsistent. It's always difficult to answer really interesting questions without access to the internal crosstabs. And that seems especially true here.

Overall, this and other recent polls look like a snapshot of an electorate in the process of "making up its mind" with all the contradictions that implies. Further, it looks like there is some early summer fatigue setting in with a drop in attention paid to the campaign after the Democratic nomination was settled compared to the May results.

The fundamentals in terms of issues and candidate qualities mostly favor Obama. I suspect that trend will play itself out in the fall. But for the next couple of months, I suspect that the results are likely remain somewhat muddled.

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boskop:

jsh1120
fatigue is in play, no doubt. by the end of five months i wonder if even obama gets bored chanting 'change".

what the media seems to have trouble doing with this candidate is understand that he has taken his preacher-man training at the feet of the best and translated that into political podium speak.

mccain will have trouble cornering this wright-like politico because he knows the terrain best from a podium before a madding crowd. debates and smaller venues freak him. as do historical facts and current events.

i dare say that the numbers cited above for clinton transfers over to mccain or obama will shift. the key ingredient is the world picture.

there is no predicting that. but should an attack occur close to us or impact our best interests, this is something mccain can ride.

as a mccain newbie, i can attest to many friends who have decided to sit this one out. i doubt they will. they are democrats who dislike obama with such growing intensity they will no doubt crawl reluctantly to the polls and cast their vote for mccain..provided he starts tacking left as has been his renegade signature before he had to take down romney.

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Nickberry:

I read the ABC report, and the question they come up with after analyzing their own poll numbers with Obama having an advantage in several significant categories is.... Why is not Barak Obama further ahead of McCain?...They conclude that the candidates are essentially in a dead heat.

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carl29:

I think the numbers are going to change as soon as Hillary starts campaigning for Barack. My impression is that those democrats, former Hillary supporters, will move from McSame to undecided and then to Obama.

Another point, you remeber how people used to argue that Obama had a "hispanic problem," well, just as previous pollsters, ABC/Post could not find it neither. In this poll, Obama wins hispanics 7 to 2, quite handily, no? Unless, ABC/Post is wrong, just as gallup and NBC/WSJ. Or is this a vast pollster conspiracy?

But wait a minute, there is another poll: A national survey of Latino voters, conducted as the Democratic primary season ended, shows Democratic presidential Candidate Sen. Barack Obama with a bit lead over Republican nominee-in-waiting Sen. John McCain.

The survey of 800 Lation voters in 21 states found that 60 percent planned to vote for Obama, compared to 23 percent for McCain, with 16 percent undecided.

The poll, Latino Decisions, is a joint effort between Pacific Market Research and University of Washington political scientists Matt Barreto and Gary Segura. Barreto has previously overseen polls on Washington's gubernatorial race and state issues.

Among Democrats surveyed, 57 percent had supported Hillary Clinton in the just-concluded Democratic race, while 35 percent backed Obama.

Um, Who has a hispanic problem? Oh yeah, Obama!!!

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Billbrown:

So far I don't see or hear anything from the current President or the Senators seeking his office which will be of any immediate help to home owners in foreclosure. The current Bailout plan on the table does not appear to contain what is best for the average American homeowner.

However, if the homeowner and the economy are to benefit in an immediate fashion there must be an infusion of cash flow. Why not do something that would accomplish this regardless to the present plan being hashed out in Washington? Before the President leaves office he should call for or sign by executive order a stay of all proceedings in regards to all Americans presently in foreclosure. Americans who are presently in foreclosure should begin to pay their regular payments, portions thereof or at least the interest on the loan while the stay of proceedings is in place. This action would at least create a cash flow in the industry for the mortgage companies affording them to pay their obligations or whatever they deem necessary.

This stay of proceedings would also allow time for a more well thought out plan with the supposed 700 billion dollar bailout funding as to how it will assist the average American homeowner and the economy. In the mean time no other American homeowner will suffer the loss of their home. Is this not the goal and one of the focal points of the bailout?

If the President does nothing until the bailout plan is finally prepared and accepted many more home owners will have lost their homes before receiving any benefit from these monies. By the time monies are available, that is if the average American home owner is benefited at all, it will be too little too late. This action will show the American people that President Bush can in fact do what is best for the average American before he leaves office. President Bush can leave office with a more positive impression in the minds of the American people.

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