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POLL: AP-Ipsos National Primary


A new AP-Ipsos national survey (story, results) of 1,317 adults (conducted 9/21 through 9/25; released 10/3) finds:

  • Among 482 Democrats and those who lean Democratic, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (40% to 26%) in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 12%. When former V.P. Al Gore is included, Clinton runs at 35%, Obama at 23%, GOre at 12%, and Edwards at 9%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.
  • Among 358 Republicans and those who lean Republican, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 21%) runs slightly ahead of former sen. Fred Thompson and Sen. John McCain (both at 17%) in a national primary; former Gov. Mitt Romney trails at 10%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee at 7%, and former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 5%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.
  • "Clinton led Obama among whites by 35 percent to 18 percent, Blacks were essentially evenly divided, 40 percent for Obama and 38 percent for Clinton."

 

Comments
Tex MacRae:

Any idea why Ron Paul was not included in this poll?

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Andrew:

That business of polling has become a joke this year. Here we have two polls, conducted less than 1 week from each other, surveying the exact same sample (Dems and those who lean Dem.), one finding Clinton ahead of Obama by 33% (WP/ABC) and the other one finding her with a 14% lead; a 19% difference.
Are polls to be trusted?

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