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POLL: ARG CT/NJ, GQR (D) NJ


American Research Group

Connecticut
Clinton 48, Obama 35... McCain 43, Romney 25

Illinois
Obama 51, Clinton 40... McCain 48, Romney 34

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)

New Jersey
Clinton 44, Obama 38

 

Comments
RS:

Is the "ARG generally overestimates Clinton support and underestimates Obama support" argument still valid?
If so, YAY for Obama! :-)

Any views on Greenberg? I haven't heard that name before (could be my ignorance).

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AB:

Certainly is still true and appears to be at work here ... recent polls put Obama even with HRC in Conn (40/40) and substantially further ahead in Illinois in all other polls.

It's hard to say how much of a boost ARG is giving but it appears to be in the +7 HRC and -6 Obama range ... basically enough that it's hard to take them seriously or use their polls meaningfully.

I've been an Edwards supporter for months now but the more I hear from Obama (and without Edwards as a candidate) the more I believe Obama is the candidate who's going to throttle McCain in November and change the world's view of America.

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Martin :

Greenberg is a Democratic pollster that does a lot of campaign work, and has a lot of New Jersey clients.

http://gqrr.com/

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Brian:

ARG Blows..these blowhards had Clinton up double-digits in Iowa right before she deserved her third place finish. In my opinion, Survey Usa has a better handle on the tri-state area.

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Mike:

Is the Illinois tag right? The title says NJ, and the numbers would make a lot more sense if it was NJ (as would the pairing with CT).

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PM:

You're basing this all on Iowa, where they had her winning by 9. They had her losing in NH by nine (the avg. poll put Clinton losing at 8.3). In NV they had Clinton by 3, the rest of the pollsters said 4, and Clinton won by 5.5. Their last poll in SC was ten days out -- they had Obama up by Obama climbed in the polls after that. They had no poll past 9/07 in FL.

Survey USA has a ranking of pollsters' accuracy. ARG has not been great -- but they're near the bottom with the heralded Gallup polls.

Sorry, though, you can't make the consistently high for Clinton argument. Likely, the electorate is in a bit of turmoil. (I recall that in '04, it was charged that Gallup was owned by a Republican -- which I recall was true.)

Survey companies are in it for the long run and the probability is very low that they'd sell out.

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Philip Sandifer:

Regardless of ARG's past performance, this poll is a huge outlier for Illinois, and is noticeably out of line with past polls for CT as well. That alone makes it suspicious data.

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Andrew:

ARG may be the worst polling firm in the history of humanity, at least in 2008.

..and I'm leaning towards Hillary.

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Henry:

ARG reports Obama leading Illinois by only 11 points. *chuckle*

Why is this or any other site still reporting ARG's joke polls?

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Emcee:

Andrew, no. Zogby.

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