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POLL: ARG South Carolina Dem Primary


A new American Research Group South Carolina survey (conducted 1/23 through 1/24) finds:

  • 600 Likely Democratic Primary Voters (± 4%)

    39 Obama
    36 Clinton
    22 Edwards
    1 Kucinich
    0 Gravel
    2 Undecided

 

Comments
Adam:

I suppose we'll know at the end of the day if their polling is right, but it seems to me that ARG consistently significantly overestimates Clinton's support, and perhaps slightly underestimates Obama's. At least in comparison with other polls it seems to be the case...

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Henry:

Yeah, as far as I'm concerned the final nail in the coffin of ARG's polling credibility was already nailed some time ago.. But we shall soon see if this latest drastically variant poll further proves their Clinton bias.

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Adam:

Well ARG, I think you can now claim irrelevance.

Blumenthal -- How are the trendlines calculated? Is there any way to incorporate past performance of particular polling organizations to give a better estimate?

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Henry:

So this ARG poll today showed Obama with a 3 point lead.

And with the actual results now in, Obama beat Clinton by 28 points, getting over twice her number of votes, 55 to 27.

I'm going to laugh then next time I see an ARG poll referenced anywhere in the news, other than when talking about how biased and wrong some pollsters can me.

Can't wait to see how this one is spun..

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