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POLL: ARG Texas and Ohio


American Research Group

Texas 3/2 - 3/3
Clinton 50, Obama 47... McCain 57, Huckabee 33, Paul 7

Ohio 3/2 - 3/3
Clinton 56, Obama 42... McCain 59, Huckabee 28, Paul 9

 

Comments
David:

It'll be interesting to see what tomorrow brings. Obama's had so much momentum these last few weeks that it's actually a little surprising to see Hillary ahead in this poll. Democrats in Texas are clearly pretty evenly split. I'm a Hillary supporter, but if she loses I'll certainly be supporting Obama come November.

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Adam G:

That's refreshing to hear David. Seems like most on these boards are rather polarized....

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Lucas:

Do not worry! Hillary will defenestrate BaRezko from the race sooner than we think. In fact this "Jim Jones" of politics created by Axelrodettes marketing fairies is going down by his own incapacity to hide his hypocritical discourse.

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Steve:

ARG poll. 56-42? Yep, I'll put this in the circular file.

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lucy:

Typical character assassination on Obama by the pro AIPAC/Hillary us media

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LwPhD:

Clearly, Clinton has gained a boost of last minute momentum in both Texas and Ohio, at least in the opinion polls. Though I don't dispute this, I'm rather skeptical of the magnitude of the ARG lead in Ohio. Quite frankly, a 14 point lead doesn't seem very plausible. Although, if you do look at ARG's trend, it doesn't seem implausible, just their current absolute values. For example, Rasmussen shows a 4% improvement (2/28 vs 3/2) and SUSA also show a 4% improvement (2/25 vs 3/2). A 7% improvement in ARG doesn't seem terribly out of place here.

Oh, and Lucas, don't speak up if you don't have any observations to make that are appropriate.

Polling_Firm   H-O delta(H-O) Current      Last
ARG            14   7           3/2-3/08      2/29-3/1/08 
Rasmussen       6   4           3/2/2008      2/28/2008
SurveyUSA      10   4           3/1-2/08      2/24-25/08 
PPP_(D)         9   5           3/1-2/08      2/23-24/08 
Zogby          -2  -4           2/29-3/2/08   2/26-28/08 
Quinnipiac      5  -6           2/27-3/2/08   2/18-23/08 
U_Cinc.         9   1           2/28-3/2/08   2/21-24/08 


PS
I apologize for the table. The comments don't allow any formatting that make it legible. Just post it into

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Frank JD:

Bloody Hell, that woman keeps coming back! ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGH!

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Frank JD:

Bloody Hell, that woman keeps coming back! ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGH!

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Elliot:

Everyone forgets the two for the price of one effect. Bill did seven rallies a day in both states over the last few days. I was waiting to see the bump, and here it is. Bill works a crowd much better than Obama. Obama has to come out from behind his teleprompters. Obama's preacher style is no match for the naturalness of Bill. What goes up, must come down.

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George:

So substance can prevail over style. There's true hope for the USA.

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Tulle:

Yea, David. Same for me, but I lean slightly toward Obama. Both Cliton and Obama are great, and I can happily vote for either one. I say let everyone vote, and take whichever one wins to the Whitehouse.

It's so nice to see some reason for a change. Things are so close becuase both are great, not because one is so much better than the other.

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Expatriot:

Can't wait to hear all the ducks quacking tomorrow.

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Tron :

Looking at the internals as well as I can with only three stats courses under my belt (something tells me that I am in the kiddy pool on that one) it looks like the big deal here may actually be white voters. Obama and Clinton (after some inroads by Obama) are both consolidating their minority bases of support. Obama's support amongst whites accross age and gender seems to be slipping. Wish I had the full stats so I could run some predicted probabilities. At this point, the cross-tabs are not providing a complete story. Full disclosure: I am a Clinton supporter, but I was a big political nerd first. I also respect Obama. I enjoy having a place I can visit where the talk is not quite so divisive (though it is obvious that this site is becoming too well-traveled by hardliners from both sides). Happy Tuesday, vote for Hillary if you don't mind :)

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Tron:

Looking at the internals as well as I can with only three stats courses under my belt (something tells me that I am in the kiddy pool on that one) it looks like the big deal here may actually be white voters. Obama and Clinton (after some inroads by Obama) are both consolidating their minority bases of support. Obama's support amongst whites accross age and gender seems to be slipping. Wish I had the full stats so I could run some predicted probabilities. At this point, the cross-tabs are not providing a complete story. Full disclosure: I am a Clinton supporter, but I was a big political nerd first. I also respect Obama. I enjoy having a place I can visit where the talk is not quite so divisive (though it is obvious that this site is becoming too well-traveled by hardliners from both sides). Happy Tuesday, vote for Hillary if you don't mind :)

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James:

Nice to see some some posts that are not filled with vitriol and nonsense. I am amazed by the poisonous language being spread across the blogs between the Obama and Clinton supporters. I want Hillary to win DESPERATELY tonight. If she does not, my life will go on, I will be upset for a few days, and then support Obama.

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Jake Stein:

how could this be if Obama led 63 - 37 on the last day of early voting (last friday)? are we saying that clinto had a surge of over 25 %? i don't believe this.

source:

http://www.khou.com/news/local/politics/stories/khou080228_tj_poll.87c34a6.html

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Travis:

It is very curious, Jake. But we have seen this last minute surge in a multitude of polls of the last day or two. It seems she has been shoring up the youth vote and the male vote in ways she hasn't previously. And not just Texas, which has a large population of young Hispanics, but the trend occurred in OH as well.

I really have no idea to make of it, it seems something is there, but I guess we'll just have to wait until tonight to figure out how much "there" is really there.

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jake Stein:

are those polls inclusive of Obama's early vote lead? I say no. since it's a likely voters poll.

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Macy:

Travis,

I think the Ohio debate did Obama more harm than he thought. I've read and heard a lot concerning his facial expressions while Hillary was discussing health care. The looks he and Brian Williams were exchanging did Obama no good in the female vote. That SNL lampoon didn't just come out of nowhere.

This morning I read that in the past few days Obama's campaign sent out flyers hitting Hillary on NAFTA. Whatever one may think of her stance the flyer coming right after Obama's own Canada/NAFTA fiasco that was not a good idea. It only brings the mind back to Obama's at best shaky denial. Then you have the Rezko trial starting the requisite mentions of Obama in a kind of gray area, and then for some reason almost every Obama headline the past few days has him proclaiming he's not a Muslim. I know he's not a Muslim, but after Canada you don't really want more denials in the public mind.

Obama was running a near perfect campaign, and now they've dropped the ball more than a few times in just one week. It will be interesting to see how things shake out.

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Adam G:

Lucas -- thanks for proving my point.

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George Hsu:

It's over for Billary. After 4 losses tonight, she will be desgraced and foreced to drop out. Goodnight nurse.

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Anthony:

Way to go with the most accurate polls ARG!

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