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POLL: Brown University Rhode Island Primary


Brown University/Taubman Center for Public Policy

Rhode Island
Clinton 36, Obama 28

Clinton 43, McCain 32
Obama 42, McCain 30

 

Comments
Phil:

Interesting. To my knowledge, nobody has started advertising in Rhode Island yet, and the region has, at this point, split 2/2 Obama/Clinton, with the two states bordering Rhode Island going opposite directions.

So this gives a good sense of where a toss-up state stands before any real campaigning gets started. And the answer is pretty close. Certainly if that's the starting position in Ohio or Pennsylvania, Clinton has a lot of ground to gain, as an 8 point lead isn't going to cut the lead Obama is racking up elsewhere.

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Bill:

She'll be lucky to win RD. It's a bit late for her.

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There are too many undecideds to take this poll too seriously. I do find it interesting that Obama's pretty much run the table in New England thus far with the exception of a very narrow Clinton victory in New Hampshire.

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dvg:

Massachusetts is in New England. Some might even argue that it's the premier state.

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cokie roberts bender weekend:

"Massachusetts is in New England. Some might even argue that it's the premier state."

New England is: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island.

She's won NH and MA

He's won ME and CT.

MA contains more delegates than Maine, New Hamphire, and Connecticut combined. Accordingly, I would contend that MA is THE premier prize in the region. A prize won with EVERY major figure in the state endorsing Obama.

Think before you speak Mike G. Else you just make Democrats look ridiculous.

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Phil:

And when you count up the delegates assigned across all four states, you have Clinton with a 7 delegate lead from New England, out of 187 delegates so far assigned in New England.

You can call MA the premier prize, but let's face it - New England is not having a major impact on this race. With a 7 delegate lead across the states so far, currently it is having a less dramatic impact than Idaho.

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bob:

Where are the other 36% of folks? That's just a ridiculous undecided number. Everyone in the country has to be at least leaning one way or the other by now.

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Mike:

"Uncommitted," which will apparently be a line on the RI ballot, gets 27% and undecided gets 9%. Not sure how the RI delegate selection process works--if Uncommitted gets 27%, I assume there will be a proportional share of delegates selected who are nominally unpledged to any candidate. Presumably, they will then be like superdelegates that both candidates woo.

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s.b.:

So Obama could lose in this state to uncommitted and come in third. That would be a harsh topping on his March 4th loser Sunday. Just a thought.

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Oops.

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Phil:

I have a hard time believing that Rhode Island, unlike the rest of the country, has such substantial support for "uncommitted." That smacks to me of poor phrasing such that undecideds swung to "uncommitted" instead. Otherwise, that number is just unbelievably high.

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