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POLL: CNN Iowa Caucus


A new CNN/Opinion Research statewide survey (story, results) of likely caucus goers in Iowa (conducted 12/14 through 12/18) finds:

  • Among 359 likely Republican caucus goers, former Gov. Mike Huckabee leads former Gov. Mitt Romney (33% to 25%) in a statewide caucus; former Mayor Rudy Giuliani trails at 11%, Sen. John McCain and former Sen. Fred Thompson both at 9%, Rep. Ron Paul at 6%.
  • Among 543 likely Democratic caucus goers, Sen. Hillary Clinton runs at 30%, Sen. Barack Obama at 28%, and former Sen. John Edwards at 26% in a statewide caucus; Gov. Bill Richardson trails at 7%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 5% for likely Republican caucus goers and 4% for likely Democratic caucus goers.

 

Comments
Ted:

With the Iowa caucus rules requiring an candidate to reach at least 15% of those casting ballots in the caucus, the unknown is where will Richardson and Biden go after the first ballot? Most people have said that Edwards is the second favorite after Richard/Biden (not Obama or Clinton).

Edwards could surprise everyone when these second ballots are take to reach minimum of 15% and end up on top of Clinton and Obama.

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Paul:

Huckabee and Romney seems to have taken from Giuliani. I can only assume Giuliani has realized that Huckabee for one is like many Iowans. The only way I think Romney can hang in there around 25% is that he is spending a zillion dollars trying to convince them that the progressive ideals he one time supported as contender for Governor in Mass, was back then and not now. His positions on major issues shifted to the other pole. But then in NH, he as to come off some off those more conservative messages. To me he looks like a slick, inside the beltway guy who really has to put on a show everywhere he goes so he looks like them. I do not see independents and the less conservative individuals supporting him above other candidates.

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