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POLL: Daily Tracking (6/25)


Gallup Poll

National
Obama 45, McCain 45

Rasmussen

National
Obama 49, McCain 45

Favorable / Unfavorable
McCain 55 / 43
Obama 55 / 43

 

Comments
Jeff:

From the Gallup analysis:

"Since the changes from Tuesday's results are well within the margin of sampling error, it is unclear at this point if today's results represent a further tightening of the race. The last two individual nights of polling have, however, been more favorable to McCain that what Gallup has shown for most of June."

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OGLiberal:

Is the Gallup daily tracking now starting to look like an outlier? I mean, even though Rasmussen daily has had the race closer than some of the more recent polls, since Hillary's concession, Obama has averaged a 6pt lead in that poll w/out leaners and a 5pt lead w/leaners. And from what I've read, Rasmussen is always a little bit GOP-friendly.

Over that same time period, Gallup has Obama's lead average at just 3pts, although I don't know if that is with or without leaners. In addition, over the last 2 weeks, Obama's lead in that poll has exceeded 3pts only once (4pts) and has hovered consistently around 2 or 3, with the first post-primary tie occurring today.

And interestingly, the USAToday/Gallup non-tracking poll published just this past Monday had Obama ahead, 50-44. I just don't get it...but then I'm no polling expert.

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phillybooster:

Looking at the Gallup poll's oscillations makes me wonder if there is a systematic Weekend Effect.

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Mike_in_CA:

not to sound like an Obama cultist, but Gallup is actually a really horrible pollster, and the only reason they remain relevant is because they are the most well-known. Fivethirtyeight.com ranks them near the end of their pollster ratings, below ARG, Zogby and even FOX.

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Undecided:

Gallup Daily Tracking uses combination of 3 consecutive days with at least 1000 participants. This particular poll has a margin of sampling error is 2. Rasmussen also uses the same number of days, participants, and has a similar sampling error.

Gallup and Rasmussen use different polling methods which accounts for the differential. Neither is an outlier because it does not match the other one.

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Mark Lindeman:

@Mike_in_CA: Gallup's state results are a fraction of a point below average in the fivethirtyeight rankings. I think that is probably a real difference, but I wouldn't use it as a reason to dismiss their national tracking polls.

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1magine:

Looking at the state polls conducted over the last 2 weeks. Either all of them showing Obama with statistically significant leads are wrong, or Gallup's daily tracking is flawed. If election was held today - state polls show an electoral vote landslide. That would be very odd indeed given a 49/51 popular vote.

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