Obama 45, McCain 45
Obama 49, McCain 45
Favorable / Unfavorable
McCain 55 / 43
Obama 55 / 43
From the Gallup analysis:
"Since the changes from Tuesday's results are well within the margin of sampling error, it is unclear at this point if today's results represent a further tightening of the race. The last two individual nights of polling have, however, been more favorable to McCain that what Gallup has shown for most of June."
Posted on June 25, 2008 2:30 PM
Is the Gallup daily tracking now starting to look like an outlier? I mean, even though Rasmussen daily has had the race closer than some of the more recent polls, since Hillary's concession, Obama has averaged a 6pt lead in that poll w/out leaners and a 5pt lead w/leaners. And from what I've read, Rasmussen is always a little bit GOP-friendly.
Over that same time period, Gallup has Obama's lead average at just 3pts, although I don't know if that is with or without leaners. In addition, over the last 2 weeks, Obama's lead in that poll has exceeded 3pts only once (4pts) and has hovered consistently around 2 or 3, with the first post-primary tie occurring today.
And interestingly, the USAToday/Gallup non-tracking poll published just this past Monday had Obama ahead, 50-44. I just don't get it...but then I'm no polling expert.
Posted on June 25, 2008 3:37 PM
Looking at the Gallup poll's oscillations makes me wonder if there is a systematic Weekend Effect.
Posted on June 25, 2008 3:59 PM
not to sound like an Obama cultist, but Gallup is actually a really horrible pollster, and the only reason they remain relevant is because they are the most well-known. Fivethirtyeight.com ranks them near the end of their pollster ratings, below ARG, Zogby and even FOX.
Posted on June 25, 2008 4:02 PM
Gallup Daily Tracking uses combination of 3 consecutive days with at least 1000 participants. This particular poll has a margin of sampling error is 2. Rasmussen also uses the same number of days, participants, and has a similar sampling error.
Gallup and Rasmussen use different polling methods which accounts for the differential. Neither is an outlier because it does not match the other one.
Posted on June 25, 2008 4:16 PM
@Mike_in_CA: Gallup's state results are a fraction of a point below average in the fivethirtyeight rankings. I think that is probably a real difference, but I wouldn't use it as a reason to dismiss their national tracking polls.
Posted on June 25, 2008 6:07 PM
Looking at the state polls conducted over the last 2 weeks. Either all of them showing Obama with statistically significant leads are wrong, or Gallup's daily tracking is flawed. If election was held today - state polls show an electoral vote landslide. That would be very odd indeed given a 49/51 popular vote.
Posted on June 26, 2008 5:41 PM
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