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POLL: Daily Tracking (7/22-24)


Rasmussen Reports
7/22-24/08; 3,000 LV, 2%
Mode: IVR

National
Obama 49, McCain 44


Gallup Poll
7/22-24/08; 2,695 LV RV, 2%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 47, McCain 41

 

Comments
David_T:

A "Berlin Bounce"?

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Undecided:

I like that term "Berlin Bounce."

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1magine:

I don't believe it at 1 point and I don't beleive it any more at 5 or 6. While things are fluid it is about 3% nationally. That is, despite what the MSM want to make it - a huuge lead, given the number of 'informed voters' this cycle. Again 3% nationally = 97% chance of electoral college win. I'm comfortable with that.

I AM NOT AFRAID
I WILL NOT BE MADE AFRAID
I AM A STRONG PROUD AMERICAN
I AM A DEMOCRAT AND I VOTE

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carl29:

I'm my opinion this is just noise. I really think that people will really tune in after the conventions.

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TheVoice99:
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josephj:

@1magine: You're the first person I've ever heard say that the MSM wants to publicize a huge spread between the candidates. What benefit would this give a network? Compare the Pollster.com electoral map to those of the MSM.

Pollster: Dems lead 284 to 147
CNN: Dems lead 221 to 189

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TheVoice99:

joej -

You read that wrong, 1magine is saying that the lead is huge, but the MSM wants to make it seem close.


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josephj:

Oh, my bad. In that case, the Pollster/CNN comparison I gave bolsters 1magine's point.

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Paul:

Pollster.com has Obama +3.2. 538 had Obama + 1.8 before these polls. RCP has Obama + 4.8. So Rasmussen Obama +5 and Gallup +6 are on high end of range we have seen. We will see if there is evidence in key state polls of an increased advantage to Obama.

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The overall trend is stable, with Obama holding a modest lead. There might be an ever so slight up tick in Obama's national numbers as a result of his overseas trip. But, in general, minor fluctuations, this way or that, are not significant. I see no major changes from a month ago.

Lech

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Robert:

I have problems with the RCP data, and I encourage others to check. First, the Fox/Opinion dynamics is an outlier result. Over the past several days most others have had the margin at 5-6%. Second, when checking the Fox poll itself, there are four oddities that may effect the manner by which the results are reported and the weight to be given them: 1. Democrats and Republicans (esp. the latter) seem to be over represented in the sample; 2. the results vary depending on how the question is asked, 1% versus 3%, yet only the 1% result is reported; 3. the reported data does not inquire about Barr or Nader, but when Nader is included, he appears to draw votes from McCain; and 4. the report is of registered rather than likely voters. See, http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/FoxPoll.pdf.

Last, the RCP average states that it is based on data from 7/07, but then cuts off four polls, the results of which, if averaged, would have increased the margin reported to 5% or better. See, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls

I have no idea why.

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Undecided:

I do not see where Democrats and Republicans were over-represented in the Fox poll. Upon what criteria are you basing that?

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Undecided:

Today's daily tracking seems to show that "Berlin Bounce"... too soon for the "French Frosting" (as on the cake). Maybe some one else can do better with the "French" alliteration.

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Paul:

A current analysis of state polls and history shows Obama at 264 electoral votes, which includes all Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico. The toss-up states are Nevada, Virginia, Ohio and Colorado. Obama needs to win VA, or OH or CO. If he wins NV only, election is a tie, goes to House, McCain wins. If you want to add additional toss-up states, you could include MI, NH, MT, FL, and MO. MI and NH look like Obama states and MT, FL and MO McCain states. So the core group I am looking at now are NV, VA, OH and CO. They would decide the race and McCain would need a clean sweep of all four to win.

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Louis:

Are there really people out ther who think a million people change their mind on who they are going to vote for presideent on a daily basis.Almost all of the movement is noise. Or sometimes slight movement enhaced by noise.slight movements are is likly as not, in th short run, to be invisible because of the noise factor. The more you pay attention to daily changes in the polls the less you really know about what is going on.

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Undecided:

Today's Rasmussen:

Monday, July 28, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that Barack Obama’s Berlin bounce is fading. Obama now attracts 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45%. Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 56% of voters.

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Undecided:

Today's Gallup:
July 28, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama 48%, McCain 40%

Obama gained ground over McCain in each of the last three tracking updates, but today's average shows no further gains and a slight drop of Obama's percent of the vote from 49% to 48%. Obama's progress was coincident with his highly visible foreign tour, and it is not unreasonable to expect that his lead over McCain may settle back to a margin closer to what Gallup has measured for most of the summer as the impact of the trip fades.

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