Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: Daily Tracking (8/12-14)


Rasmussen Reports
8/12-14/08; 3,000 LV, 2%
Mode: IVR

National
Obama 47, McCain 45

Gallup Poll
8/12-14/08; 2,690 RV, 2%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 44, McCain 44

 

Comments
marctx:

So. uhhh. Was it a good idea for the DNC, Tim Russert, Chris Matthews, and the superdelagates to "give" the nomination to Obama instead of the better candidate that got more votes. Hummm.. We'll see.

____________________

Patrick:

In a country that is almost universally disgusted with the Republican president and his party, how on earth can Obama be statistically tied with McCain? He should easily be ahead by double digits. Even Dukakis was ahead by 19 pts at this point in 1988. Obama's had the nomination for 2 months now and he's clearly still having major trouble connecting with key swing voting groups, especially working class whites. And now there's major speculation that he'll select Biden as his running mate. An older white guy (like McCain)? Talk about a lackluster choice. If he does that and McCain selects a woman (which will sway enough Hillary backers to him), I really think Obama will lose in Nov.

____________________

thoughtful:

We have been seeing a large undecided electorate and Obama's negatives rise over the past week or so from a collection of different polls. Obama's very favorables (core support?) have remained constant. Is this the Obama referendum?

"A shift away from Obama - 12% others/undecided"- Gallup


@stillow
"Despite the Russian invasion of Georgia, daily tracking data shows no shift in voter priorities for Election 2008. Forty-one percent (41%) say economic issues are most important while just 22% name national security issues as the top priority" Rasmuuson

____________________

brambster:

This is merely a snapshot of two tracking polls. Rasmussen seems to have a propensity to under-poll Democrats since 2006 by 2 points. Gallup has a sine wave pattern that reaches it's low point for Obama late in the week, but it always bounces back by Monday or Tuesday. Seems to suggest an issue with the availability of certain groups of respondants. They also generally underpoll Obama on average this cycle.

Does this matter? No, not really. There is such a thing as peaking too early. Look at what happened to Howard Dean, or better yet, Michael Dukakis. When you are all high and mighty and then something bad happens, it really drags you down in a big way, bigger than if you weren't all high and mighty.

This was actually discussed prior to Iowa with Obama, and how he really didn't want to be trying hard too early otherwise his momentum would wain. What you see in the polling right now is primarily the part of the electorate that made their minds up before even the candidates were chosen. This was likely to slip a few points to the Dems favor this election, but the real swing voters aren't the types to pay a lot of attention early on. They will start to move when the VP's are selected and the conventions start, then during the debates, and finally, some just really pay so little attention that they don't decide until election day, and they won't show up in the polls.

Obviously there is no news that is changing how people think right now.

____________________

Stillow:

The left won't admit it but they are scared. There nominee shoudl be running away with this thing....Obama is a weak candidate. They should hve chosen Hillary, I think she'd win and win easily, similar to 1996. The left is scared they will lose a sure thing this time around...keep your eye on the convention, Hillary supporters will do what they can to change this.

@thoughtful

I don't disagree with you one bit...I said "if" the main issue becomes national security due to an escalation of world events, McCain shoudl win easily and see a heavy break of the indy's to his side.

____________________

zotz:

I see no long term changes in the polls until the conventions and veep picks. Is McCain getting a Georgia bump? Maybe, but the kind of people that are getting excited about war with Russia are the same people that won't remember it the day after it stops being in the headlines. Also as it becomes increasingly clear that the US is too weak to do anything, McCain's bluster will look increasingly foolish and eventually Obama will figure out that perhaps the reason that Russia is becoming more aggressive is because Putin knows that the United States is OVERSTRETCHED militarily. Now, who's to blame for that I wonder? Someone eventually will point out that we can't do a surge everywhere at the same time. And what about Iran? I thought we had to attack them (in order to preserve peace of course). Please don't misunderstand me. I am not against war. I am against stupid wars that end up making us weaker and more vulnerable. That doesn't make me a "leftist". My position used to be called common sense but since Nov. 2000 that phrase has dropped out of the English language.

____________________

marctx:

you gave it away Voice. say something offensive so Mark can ban you again.

____________________

player:

There has to be a reason that the Obama campaign let the Cintons have their way at the convention. Their internal polling numbers must be worse that what we see here. Its strange really. A few weeks ago, I saw a couple of NBC political analysis on Charlie Ross talking about how the internal polling numbers have Obama winning in a landslide.

____________________

thoughtful:

@bramster

@marctx You know Obama has become as polarizing as Hillary.

Obama has very strong favorable and a very strong committed base.

I'm not sure that even a growing 36% very unfavourable view scuttles his election chances,

This election is very much a state by state battle. National polls only can give you part of the trend. Indiana and Ohio should be revealing. But this Gallup poll makes it interesting for MSM.

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

I'm on the left on I'll admit it: I'm scared. Obama should be crushing and no, we should not have picked Hillary because she would have been an awful president. Imagine the scandals, the good old boys coming back into town, all the hijinks that surrounds the Clintons. Ugh. Obama's values are more closely aligned with mine. Yes, that means all that liberal garbage we've discussed a thousand times.

Yes, it's only August, and better to be flat now than flat on Nov 1st but if Obama is not ahead by 3-4 points after both conventions than I'm going to really start sweating.

____________________

brambster:

Lots of FUD going on here. There's another common Republican game of talking down the Democrat's advantage even when the Republican is behind, as if it was a weakness to be ahead.

They will also seize on any circumstance that is presumeably beneficial to the Democrat and claim that the Democrat should be doing better. They talked down Kerry's convention bounce, and they talked down Obama's Middle-East/European trip, claiming that they must be bad candidates because they didn't bounce more. If this was all it took to be elected president, these guys would learn how to juggle and do magic tricks.

Keep pretending that being ahead is a disadvantage. The fact is that a man of mixed race and with only 3 years of federal government experience is leading a man with 25 years of federal government experience who happens to be a war hero that is running during a time of war. That's how bad the Republican's messed up this country.

____________________

boskop:

you know i just reread the time line bio on obama. i felt the need to refresh my memory so as not to appear foolish.

let me start by saying that more and more this 'inexperienced' rap is snowballing especially in the face of his international brain.

what frightened me most about his inflection points vis a vis his anti war stance is not so much his beating the anti war speech of 2002 to death, but it was the insidious and peculiar need of every non- military candidate to up their macho index and find their own war in order to prove, "hey, I'm no scaredy cat, busters"

he has fingered Afghnistan as his personal 'get tough' mission because it has to be distinctly other than bush's iraq. there is almost a psychological infantilism to this one up- manship but it bespeaks his lack of confidence and intense desire to over compensate. for this i have only two words:WATCH OUT.

Obama's war has the earmarks of everything as big if not bigger than Bush's war.

but for his timeline: here it is..

columbia
two years off for research groups
two and half years organizing church groups and coming under the wing of jeremiah wright
then harvard
at harvard he took advantage of the elite
placement options and worked for sidley
and austin, the 6th largest law firm.
in the WOrld!! billions of bucks worth.
when he graduated he did not return to the 'hood' to help out but instead was embraced by U of C with a stipend and office to write his memoirs because he was the first black to edit the crimson. rather than giving back he took and took and took more for himself alone.

he chose to write about himself for the next five years and far beyond U of C's expectations which were to do it in one plus years.

quite the boondoggle. who wouldnt drag it out?!

He was neither a professor nor a published legal scholar at any time.

to help himself think better about himself and his father's socialistic but highly successful run in Kenya's Government as the mInister of Economics and transportation, Barack went to Bali. (I could have thunk for myself juggling four kids, a job and living in a one bedroom apartment in new york city)

but for barack, there was a lot of important bathing, sun gazing, practicing his alinksy'isms
and sucking on coconuts.

He did not tarnish his hands nor dig deep into the culture and roots of the chicago neighborhoods but indulged his obsession to find his father ie himself. we call that prolonged and self indulgent adolescence and all still sucking on the proverbial tit of the U of C.

then came his stint at the legislature.
his keynote.
and alan keyes basically helped hand him the senate race. but he would have won anyway.

one year in the senate.. and he runs for president.

so you add it up.

church organizer.
harvard and summer jobs in fancy law firms
lecturer at U of C even when he didnt lecture
to write his opus magnum for five years.
bali..not the ghetto
state legislature
run for pres.\
200 paid advisers for his campaign.

whew...that was easy..you'd think there would have been more in 47 years. sorry to dissappoint.

____________________

marctx:

Russia just threated a nuclear attack on Poland for accepting the US missile shield. So. The US is going to elect a community organizer to lead during what appears to be the beginning of the second cold war.

____________________

brambster:

You know boskop, that's real delusional stuff. It really doesn't belong here.

____________________

player:

Some people go to college and learn to think in intellectual spheres where all ends well and mankind is saved from itself. However, its more like what a professor of finance told our class once; this textbook problem worked out well didn't it? It was suppose to; but don't expect it to turn out this way in the real world. It never does. There are to many variables that can change and influence the outcome. You have to learn to think and react to them. Someone forgot to tell Barack not to take all of that intellectual stuff out of the classroom and try to live it in the real world.

____________________

boskop:

wikipedia. he edited it. it's obama's very own time line.

____________________

eugene:

TO ALL YOU SCARED DEMOCRATS,OBAMA CANNOT LOSE THIS ELECTION BECAUSE OF THE DEMOGRAPHICS,MCCAIN HAVE TO WIN THE WHITE VOTE BY 22%,RIGHT NOW HE S ONLY WINNING BY 9%,SO THIS GALLUP POLL IS NOT BEING HONEST,IF OBAMA IS ONLY LOSING THE WHITE VOTE BY 9% HE SHOULD BE LEAQDING IN THE GALLUP POLL BY 8%BECAUSE THE WHITE VOTE WILL ONLY BE 73% THIS ELECTION,GO IN CHECK THE DEMOGRAPHICS PEOPLE THERE IS NO WAY A MCCAIN CAN WIN THIS,THE LAST TIME A REPUBLICAN GOT 91% OF THE WHITE VOTE WAS REAGAN IN 1984,IN HE WON EVERY DAMM STATE,BUSH WON THE WHITE VOTE BY 18% IN 2004 IN WON BY ONLY 2%,SO THAT TELLS YOU THE POWER OF THE MINORITY VOTE,THE MEDIA DO NOT WANT ANYONE TO KNOW THIS,ANOTHER EXAMPLE BUSH WON THE WHITE VOTE BY 14% IN 2000 IN STILL LOST THE POPUPAR VOTE,BECAUSE THE MINORITY VOTE WAS 19% BACK IN 2000,WHAT AM TRYING TO SAY IS EVERYTIME THE MINORITY RISES{WHICH WILL BE 27% THIS YEAR}THE REPUBLICANS HAVE TO GET A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF THE WHITE VOTE BECAUSE 90%OF THEIR VOTERS ARE WHITE.DO THE MATH PEOPLE,GO IN CHECKOUT THE DEMOGRAPHICS THE LAST 28 YEARS,BACK IN 1980 THE WHITE VOTE WAS 90%,IN 1988 IT DEEPED TO 87%,IN 1996 IN WENT TO 83%,IN FOUR YEARS AGO IT WAS 77%,THE GOP PARTY WILL BE ABSOLETE IN 12 YEARS BECAUSE OF THESE DEMOGRAPHICS,A REPORT CAME OUT YESTERDAY SAYIN THE WHITES WILL BE THE MINORITY IN 30 YEARS.SO DONT BELIVE THIS POLL BECAUSE IN REALITY OBAMA IS LEADING BY AT LEAST 5%,IF YOU GUYS SEE A POLL THAT HAVES MCCAIN WINNING BY 3% OR MORE,THAT MEANS MCCAIN IS WINNING THE WHITE VOTE BY 28%,IF YOU GUYS DONOT BELIVE ME,I CHALLENGE YOU TO GO IN CHECK IT OUT,OR YOU GUYS CAN ALWAYS EMAIL ME AT {GUNGLE555YAHOO}ILL BE HAPPY TO EXPAIN THIS EVEN MORE.THE GOP IS REALLY IN TROUBLE IN THEY KNOW IT,THE DEMOCRATS HAVE NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT FOR YEARS IN YEARS UNLESS THE GOP GO OUT IN GET MORE MINORITY VOTERS,OR THEY WILL BECOME ABSOLETE BY 12 YEARS,THE PROFF IS IN THE DEMOGRAPHICS.

____________________

Timmeh:

@player

Actually, Obama is the realist in this election, at least in foreign policy. I suggest you read the story on this in the Newsweek from 3 or 4 weeks ago. It's very insightful, at least I think so.

____________________

player:

@Timmeh:
I'm sorry friend, but there is nothing very real about Barack Obama. He lives in a novelist's world. He follows the lead of his political opponents and then takes their stance. He did that with Clinton, Edwards, Bush, and now McCain. He has all of the tool designs, but he doesn't have the steel. People can't take him seriously anymore.

____________________

Stillow:

Yes I also saw on CNN Russia said it would consider a first strike using nuclear weapons against Pland if they allow a missile sheild system. I'm tellin ya, Putin is a serious player, this guy is a die hard communist and wants the glory days back of Soviet dominance. I have no doubt in my mind he would launch a low level nuke strike into Poland to send a message to the world that he means business.......there military is right on par with us.......I guess its lucky we have the Europeans to save us all again.
You don't elect community activists to be president during this time....Putin is a major player and its no secret that when communists see weakness, they strike.

____________________

player:

@Youforgotpoland:
It got her prime time at the convention and a chance to become president in 2012. McCain is a one termer.

____________________

brambster:

@Stillow

Another page from the Republican play book I see. Scare people with the threat of nuclear weapons strikes so that they will vote for your candidate. Honestly, it's stuff like this that is causing many people to run from the Republicans. Not only have they figured out that al-Qaeda never trained frogmen to invade Seattle Harbor, but they also figured out that this stuff is said just as a form of propaganda to get them to vote for stooge.

I do hope that you aren't fooled by this stuff and that you are only being disingenuous by posting such garbage.

____________________

Timmeh:

@player

And what it put off the table: the presidency. Enough said.

____________________

Stillow:

@brambster

Grow up man. That statement doesn't really justify a response, but I cannot help myself.

Read the news or soemthing, those aren't GOP words, Russia flat out said they will consider a first strike on Pland and use nuclear weapons.....get your head out of the sand, don't balme the GOP....this is Russia saying it. Try a new flavor or kool aid or soemthing. That statement you made was pure idiocy.......blaming hte GOP for soemthing Russia says, unbeleivable!!

____________________

brambster:

@Stillow

For the record, you, not Russia, said this:

"I have no doubt in my mind he would launch a low level nuke strike into Poland to send a message to the world that he means business."

You know, it's either people like you that incite, or people like you that enact acts of terrorism against progressive leaders in this country, or anyone identified with causes that are attacked by Republicans. You certainly don't hear about Republican party chairmen getting shot by random strangers, or doctors sitting outside of churches gunning down pro-life supporters, or news anchors sending anthrax to lab scientists. There's a reason for this too. The reason is all of the bulls#&it propaganda that is pumped out by megalomaniacs and eaten up by those that are too stupid to know any better.

My only question is whether you are just a pumper or a swallower/parrot of this stuff? This really is hurtful to our entire society to allow a political party to act this way. It's behavior like this that causes some to compare Republicans to Hitler.

____________________

Stillow:

@brambster

I can't even think stragiht your comment was so obsurd. As usual the left are completely blind to the dangers of the world...and when Republicans point it out we are labaled war mongers, blah blah, scare tactis, blah blah. I guess if we ignore the comments of Russia they will just go away....if we be nice they'll forget there evil ways and learn to love us right? Don't point out Russia said nukes are on the able, oh those evil Republicans scaring us again....who cares that Russia said it. War War War, that's all the GOP wants. Your view of foreign affairs is severely warped.......Russia comes out and says some major things, it gets pointed out and you balme Republicans. I bet the right is behind Putins invasion of Georiga too? I bet Bush severetly called him and told him to start a war cus he was getting bored.
You need some serious help.............!

____________________

brambster:

Ok, you are a swallower. Thanks for the confirmation.

____________________

Stillow:

Yes a swalloer....ignore it and they will go away. Maybe we should send some code pink literature over to Putin so he changes his mind. Or maybe a big hug. Thank God liberals keep losing the White house.....the left wing motto"Better to live on your knees than to die on your feet"....So blind to the dangers of the world.....yes, blame the GOP for the Russian statments, I love it.
I hope one day you grow up and see the world for what it is, a dangerous place. Its not all fresh flowers and hugs.
Go offer your freindship to Putin when your president and just ask him to be nice....see what happens....hey, let's just disband the military while we're at it....if we're nice and do it, everyone else will follow suit.

.....the insanity on the left...........

____________________

brambster:

I'd prefer it if you guys would both leave the obsessive/offensive crap for a place that is more appropriate.

____________________

Stillow:

Fair enough, then perhaps you should keep your comments in the realm of reallity. Blaming the GOP for Russian comments "demanded" a response. It was obsurd and totally irresponsible.

____________________

I wonder how McCain's problem with his the Gop's conservative base is gonna play out? i am a obama supporter but very worried.

I mean come on match up Obama:a flawless trip overseas with 200 000+ at a rally, charisma, good looking family against against McCain: to old, warmongering, support for the Iraq war, a economic advisor that called the nations a bunch of whiners, a campaigned fueled by lobbyists! how the hell can you explain 44-44 in today's gallup? you can weigh in at my blog

http://politicaljunkie4u.blogspot.com/

____________________

player:

With the Obama supporters, its always a talk game. It reminds you of the 70s BeeGee song "jive talking". They say anything to get in, but once they get in then they totally change what they said. Watch out for the Trojans, and I don't mean the kind that is sold in the men's room.

____________________

TheVoice_99:

Who blamed the gop for russian comments? Yikes, maybe reading comprehension skills are in order.....


change -

Ummm, about half the country is republican or "conservative", why would they vote for a black liberal?? Conservatives don't own racism outright although it is quite obvious they have a good majority of racists in the country. Didn't you see the report about dems in kentucky and appalachia - they still think blacks are "second class citizens". So there you go........

____________________

Stillow:

Its tied 44-44 because not everyone thinks like you do. Norchange 's comments about conservatives being racist. Race baiting and making fun of McCain cus he is old simply isn't a winning formula. Even with the media aiding Obama, he still can't break away or even get to 50....A natioanl Democrat hasn't got 50% since Jimmy Carter in 1976, so the answer to your questions is most folks don't buy into left wing propaganda....

____________________

TheVoice_99:

Still need to work on the reading bit, brainiac.

First sentence of my last post:

"Ummm, about half the country is republican or "conservative", why would they vote for a black liberal??"

No sh!t sherlock. Why would a bunch of handicapped people who believe in creationism and war-mongering and who voted for the worst president in the history of this country all of a sudden vote for an intelligent guy who predicted that Bush would be an utter failure on all counts back in 2002?? Did all these Bush voters grow a brain overnight???

Too bad the retard right is just that, RETARDED!! The ENTIRE effing world hates Bush and the Republicans - yes, even muslims, jews, and those "elitists" in Europe and Asia.

Have you even bothered looking at world wide opinion polls of Obama vs mccain?? It is ridiculous just how arrogant and ignorant the right has become. These anti-science, anti-logic morons think they are right and the entire world are a bunch of "liburals". Yup, that's it, Bush and his clowns/cronies are the geniuses, and everyone else on the planet is just plain crazy.....that's the ticket!

Get a brain moron.

____________________

TheVoice_99:

by the way, I make fun of mccain's age because the guy obviously is losing his handle on reality (early alzheimers). He is going to be a second term reagan, you know with nancy running the show. hopefully, cindy has kicked her pain killer addiction.......

this will all be over after the first debate when obama mops the floor with the corpse.

____________________

zotz:

I would like to make a comment about polls if it is not too inappropriate. I never noticed before that Gallup tracking is an RV poll and Rasmussen is an LV poll. I assume all of you know about this but can anyone explain its significance and whom does it help or hurt.

____________________

saywhat90:

if i am not mistaken and if history serves me right in didnt we have the same response when russia was going to put missiles in our backyard(namely cuba). i am no fan of russia but i do believe a country has a right to express concer when someone wants to put a "missile defense" system near their border. would we be happy if russia wanted to put a "missile defense" system in mexico. im sure we wouldnt be happy. russia has asked us several times not to put a missile defense near them and we have ignored them. if it was done to us we would have done the same thing. and if it fell on deaf ears we would also be saying that we would take extreme measures if what we want isnt done. yes i know im a commie sympathizer and i hate america. i know that what the responce will be to this. but i m just looking at this from of how we would feel if someone said they were going to stick missiles near my backyard.

____________________

saywhat90:

and to make it clear i do love my country but america isnt always right on an issue.

____________________

saywhat90:

the whole poll thing is crazy. there is only one poll that will give us a clear insight into who will win.that poll will post on november 4. until then the polls that come out have no real idea who will win. why because soem polls are biased,others are wighed with old data and you jsut dont know if a person is going to vote the same way in july then when it is election day. i may say im not going to vbote and then vote. or i may jsut say i will vote for someone i know im not going to vote for just to screw with the person who asked the question. as far as the obama is in trouble in the polls theme they say that evey time he dips in the polls. they said it june in july and in august and each time he has gone back up. in fact the numbers of the pols other than daily hasnt really varied from 3 to 5 points. but thats not newsworthy so they use any poll that makes it seem like race is super tight. when the gallup went up to 6 points after being tied up they used the rasmussen poll . when the cnn poll has 7 points they said but the gallup has it tied. so polls schmolls theh mean nothing except what the news and others make them out to be.

____________________

player:

@saywhat90:
How old are you anyway? I have six grandchildren and I was only 11 when the Cuba missile crisis happened. As a matter of fact, Barack Obama was only a year old. If you call putting a blockade on Cuba and backing down Russian warships off the coast of N.C. a lack of response then what would you consider a response?

____________________

thoughtful:

Greetings all. been detained, if you miss this I will cut and paste tomorrow>

@Stillow and Boskop

Answer me three questions that have been bugging me:

Why is it that so many Vietnam Vets in Congress (and outside Republicans)are either slow to, or will not endorse McCain?

How is it that you think a man who was never entrusted through out his military career is fit to serve as Commander-in-Chief?

How is it that you think (i am certainly not an ageist),who has never held an executive position, even as hands on as a comunity organizer, can head the executive branch of the United States of America?

____________________

saywhat90:

@player:
it is obvious you didnt read what it wrote.i was saying that we responded when russia threatened to put missile in cuba. now russia is doing the same thing with our attempt to put missile in their backyard (poland). if russia tried to to d the same in say mexico we would threaten the use of force to remove them.same thing russia is doing. alhtough it is an extreme threat russia is making.

____________________

jsh1120:

brambster said:
"This is merely a snapshot of two tracking polls. Rasmussen seems to have a propensity to under-poll Democrats since 2006 by 2 points..."

brambster,

Not sure how to interpret your comment since we don't have election results to compare RR's performance "SINCE" 2006. However, I did some analysis of RR's last pre-election polls IN 2006 and found the following looking at 21 US Senate and Governor's races.

() On average, RR underestimated the GOP percentage by 1.0% and the Democratic percentage by 3.6%.


() The Democratic percentage was underestimated by 4% or more in 9 of the 21 races. The GOP percentage was underestimated by more than 4% in two of 21.

The bottom line is that in 2006, at least, RR was quite accurate in estimating the GOP vote, less so for the Democratic vote. My guess is that the difference was a combination of RR's party ID weighting and a potential bias in their "likely voter" screen.

Whether such weaknesses remain in their 2008 results remains to be seen.


____________________

Undecided:

I chuckle everytime I read "hands on community organizer." If that is a qualification for President then I am extraordinarily more qualified than Obama. And I did not even get paid like Obama did.

Yes, in my opinion military service combined with 25 years experience in Congress trumps a "community organizer" with 3 years experience in Congress.

____________________

John:

"thoughtful:

We have been seeing a large undecided electorate and Obama's negatives rise over the past week or so from a collection of different polls"

Are you sure? Here is rasmussen's favourability rating for the last two months, which seem pretty stable for both canditates.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/favorable_ratings_for_presidential_candidates

The only poll I can find which has showed any significant increase in Obama's negatives is Newsweek but that was probably due to their previous +15 poll being somthing of an outlier.

@zotz: Interesting question. There doesn't seem to be any large difference in the results of pollsters which use RVs to those which employ likely voter screens. However of the few polls which have both RVs and LVs results McCain does seem to do better with likely voters. I would imagine, in terms of who it helps and hurts, it is less a matter of RVs vrs LVs but more a matter of the exact make up of the LV screens. But I would be interested to hear other people opinions on the issue.

____________________

thoughtful:

@undecided

It appears that McCain is getting hardly any bump with Obama on vacation and a 3rd world war be racheted up.

I asked 3 questions you didn't answer, not that the questions were intended for you. These are likely questions that will come up and of course the answer is not what the other guy did, but what your guy REALY did!

I'll ask you 2 as you seem to have expertise as to character traits that qualify or disqualify a person from the presidency.

First Question: Why is it that in all of the world, there are at least 30 recently retired US military, Secretaries of State and Defense Secretaries and the only one on record AGREEING with John McCain's first statements is Vice President Cheney (so I imagine Rummy would conclude), Show me one retired general or actual military commander or Secretary of State?

That doesn't mean McCain is wrong, it just tends to point out that the same recklessness that caused the one time "hot shot" pilot to get shot down hasn't learned self control 40 years later.

Any way you should further investigate McCain's military record not that much of the important stuff is in the public domain. There is no actual comand in his entire career, as I say the military don't trust him.

Next question:

Will you after spending a few moments investigating John McCain's actual accomplishments in the military, come back with a credible reason, on his huge military experience, why he is suited to being Commander-in Chief?

I'd be obliged. Thank you

____________________

thoughtful:

@John and Zotz

There ios a very interest blog Registered versus Likely polling by Brian Shaffner (aug 13)on the front page of the site.

I have just arrived in China and i can't give you the direct link from this machine.

the source on the favourability is Real Clear which I have been tracking. I may have got this wrong but it seems 35% very unfavorable is typical.

____________________

thoughtful:

@John - I stand very corrected - spending too much time with my friend Stillow whose brain washing me its steady at 27% ish.

____________________

player:

@SayWhat90:
We are not threatening to put a missile in their backyard. We want to put part of a missile defense system in their country; the so called shield. By doing it in that part of the world, we can also cover Alaska with it. In Cuba in the 60s, they already had the works in place to launch an nuclear attack on us. It was obvious what they were going to do. Of course, we also had missiles in Europe aimed at them and we had to remove them as part of the compromise. Only a true blue liberal would think that this Russia saga is our fault.

____________________

John:

@thoughtful

Easily done. Thanks for the link.

____________________

brambster:

@jsh1120

It's really more useful to measure the advantage of one candidate over another in those polls rather than comparing the exact percentages since there is no such thing as an undecided voter on election day.

My measurements on 27 senate and gubernatorial races in 2006 showed that Rasmussen got the difference exactly correct in 3 polls, over-polled the Democrat in 6 polls, and over polled the Republican in 18 polls. The net skew was +2.04 points for the Republican across all 27 races.

Since they weight by party ID, this clearly was a factor. If it was just small sample sizes, the skew should have been closer to even across 27 polls.

____________________

saywhat90:

yeah im a liberal because i m saying that you have to look at it from a point of both sides. as i said before there is no excuse for russias threat of using nuclear strikes to bring poland under submission. but that doesnt mean that they cant say we dont want the american missiles of any kind near their border. i agree that we do need to look out for americas interest but not if it bring about a major conflict that can be avoided. if they dont want the protection then dont give it to them is all im saying. we wouldnt want anyone doing to us. but yeah im a liberal for syaing that. that is absurd

____________________

player:

@SayWhat90:
Not in this world you don't. Thats the problem with liberal thinking in a time of crisis. If you don't use your power and lead then the world leadership will belong to whomever wants it; China, Russia, Iran perhaps. It has been that way since the beginning of civilization and it will be that way till the end. You don't negotiate with weak radical countries like Russia; you dominate them. These countries are like punks on the street. If you show any signs of weakness, they will take advantage. Putin is testing us right now because Bush is a lame duck. He is testing the responses of McCain and Obama. Putin has bigger plans in mind. He wants to know how far he can go.

____________________

player:

Barack Obama was very comfortable and articulate at the religious forum. John McCain is a little anxious and is trying to show his conservatism to the audience. He doesn't need to. The interviewer doesn't like it. I don't think that he likes McCain very much. Obama wins this one going away.

____________________

saywhat90:

so you think mccain lost in the forum or are you being sarcastic?

____________________

thoughtful:

@player

Both were well prepared

I thought McCain did a reasonable job on the first part - doing a "Reagan". Not that well but well enough, though sounded well rehearsed. He really did try too hard thereafter. I'd go farther than you. He did not seem very sincere = honest.

Though he did say "Drill now and Drill here" and until that is shown to be cynical which it won't be - is his big vote winner.

Obama is a class act, anyway you want to "slice and dice" it. Came across as sincere and honest and very at ease, comfortable, with his "faith".

Oddly - Obama's faith seemed to be more in tune with mainstream "American values". Where as McCain seemed to be feeding the audience with what(he thinks) they wanted to hear.

Indeed, there were 2 audiences the studio/forum and the wider television audience - Christian and others!

Other values- You know we have been looking at the "experience" measurements of these 2 candidates. I know I am going full circle here but the vote clincher is the better judgement value.

We should see the height of the McCain Georgian and Obama holiday bounce by Tuesday reflected in the polls.

If McCain can't get over 47% (+2% on Obama) in the trackers, I don't think he can win it. He needs to be able in this crisis and with the other candidate on holiday to convert undecided to his side.

The other conclusion is that the likelihood is that McCain will keep us in war and at best, an even more tense and instable world - his big vote loser - not that the polls have quite shown that yet!

We do have some Blue states potentially going Red but a lot more Red states with Blue potential. Demographics, perhaps, but a lot to do with local/national economies as well.

____________________

player:

@thoughtful:
That was a pretty good analysis; its basically what I saw. But what did other people see. On CNN they were ranting about how well John McCain did. On Fox, they didn't want to say how badly he did. Barack Obama should have ran for governor of Illinois and did a term there before he started his presidential campaign. It would have given him the executive experience that he needed. Right now his resume is thread bare as far as Joe q public is concerned. Thinking people can see his attributes but how many people in this country are thinking people? Rational people are in the minority.

____________________

c2farr:

By the electoral count, the race is over. People do like to flap their jaws around, especially Chris Matthews, and all those wingnuts at Fox. It pays the bills.

I am wondering about the icy relationship between Nancy Reagan and McCain. Is that related to McCain's "greatest moral shortfall"?

I remember reading that the Reagans believed McCain and first wife Carol had a great marriage, and that everyone was shocked when they realized he had been having an affair with Cindy, who was a little over half his age at the time.

If I remember correctly, Carol, a former model, had been in an disfiguring accident while McCain was at the Hanoi Hilton, and after he came back, he claimed something like...She's not the same woman I married.

I especially like how John wears his supposed great character on his sleeve every time he flaps his jaw. What a great guy.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Brambster

Tip a hat Gallup tracking Monday 46 Obama 43 McCain. You certainly called it!

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR