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POLL: Daily Tracking (through 5/1)


Gallup Poll

National
Clinton 48, Obama 46
McCain 48, Obama 42... McCain 46, Clinton 45

Also
"Clinton's vs. Obama's Strengths in the General Election"

Rasmussen Reports

National
Clinton 46, Obama 44
McCain 48, Obama 42... McCain 45, Clinton 44

Favorable / Unfavorable
McCain: 52 / 44
Clinton: 46 / 52
Obama: 49 / 48

New Hampshire
McCain 51, Obama 41... McCain 47, Clinton 44
Sen: Shaheen 51, Sununu 43

New York
Obama 52, McCain 35... Clinton 60, McCain 31

Also
"58% Say Obama Denounced Wright for Political Convenience, not Outrage"

 

Comments
kingsbridge77:

To summarize Diensfrey's post:

Americans think Obama is a phoney when it comes to Wright, and Obama can say good bye to his chances of becoming president.

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Nickberry:

Wow... Clinton vs. Obama's strengths puts things into perspective and why McCain is gaining a lead over Obama (and not Hillary) in the polls.

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boskop:

one of the problems about obama returning the favor of throwing wright under the bus is that he referred to it as being 'personally' outraged.

this is problematic because it suggests that his outrage was not a universal abnegation of wright's rancid rants but a uniquely personal hurt that wright has made life rather uncomfortable for obama.

people are picking up this distinction largely because of obama's initial admonition to wright heading into the campaign season that his pastor's sermons tended to be pretty raucous. he knew his pastor quite well.

so it all is beginning to look a lot like a man who thinks he can say he wasn't there the same way a shamed kid begs out of failing a test because he says he was sick, or his ears were clogged. come on, now. this is transparently cowardly.

after rezko, (what happened to that trial), ayres, wright, tapes bought to take to harvard,
etc.. there have been far too many excuses. yes, hillary fibbed about bosnia, but the facts were the country was at war. too bad she did it. but we are talking the here and now. obama is eating his foot to the bone.

i feel badly though that obama's personal betrayal is being played out in public. it reminds me of hillary's public embarassment. for obama, his surrogate dad abandons him. it's got to be awful for him. but in this case, people will go after his poor ability to make judgements about people. hillary's is old news and marital. obama's is ideological and present. it has direct impact on how he chooses to conduct meetings with world leaders and how to read them. it's not a science, it's an art form.

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JR:

I DON'T BET BUT ONCE OBAMA IS THE NOMINEE I WOULD BET HIS CHANCES OF WINNING THE GE IS AT LEAST 60%MY OPINION.

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Shadar:

I'm curious.

Do people truly think Wright is going to be a bigger drain than Bush is to McCain?

Do people think Wright is a bigger drain than Monica? How about all the other scandals the right wing likes to toss around about Hillary?

People are acting like Obama cannot possibly be elected in the fall because he now has something the republicans will attack him for. Guess what, Hillary has about 20 things they will hit her for. If being loathed by the republican party and having lots of material for them to hit you on is a reason to not be the candidate then Hillary shouldn't even be in the running.

As a democrat I think all that crap they throw at Hillary is a waste of time. It has nothing to do with how she will run the country. But guess what, Wright has nothing to do with how Obama will run the country.

I can understand republicans wanting to make this an issue, I cannot understand democrats making it an issue.

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boskop:

these are decent points. but the problem is that there is very little else to work as ballast against these attacks for obama. hillary has time on the hill that obama simply hasn't got. in fact, as we all know, he has been running for president since his last year as a legislator.

so he is virtually a blank slate comparatively speaking and as such, these issues loom larger. hillary has crossed the aisle, has worked through legislation for 9 years in the senate and has pushed a huge health initiative through
congress which failed. things do but she tried.

she has ballast. obama hasn't got it. his failings loom larger in the absense of work done. that's the problem.

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Tybo:

Shadar, I do think many voters have moved past Bush. After 7 years , voters are sick of even hearing about bush,so it won't effect McCain as much (and those voters not sick of it will vote D or not vote anyway).

Wright will be used to turn out the vote for McCain.(ALong with Ayers, and Rezko's middle east ties.)

Then slap Obama with never convening the committee he chaired, his Nafta snafu,and you've got a lot to attack Obama with.
As boskop said above, he has no ballast.
Those who are moved by Obama's rhetoric are already in his camp, he isn't going to pull in new independents. SOme of the Clinton democrats will hold their noses and vote for Obama, but many won't.

Obama has a big problem.
The dem. leadership will figure this out in sept,,,,, a little too late.

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Patrick:

Only 58% of Americans think Obama denounced Rev. Wright purely for political reasons??? You mean he didn't denounce him 1 week before 2 important primaries (even though he didn't say anything new or different) because Obama's a righteous, pious man??? I guess you really can fool 42% of the people all of the time. I wonder what % of Americans realize he joined that church (the most segregated church in Chicago, but the one with the most black voters) and adopted Rev. Wright as his 'spiritual leader' 20 years ago for purely political reasons??? Or was it really to help him find Jesus???

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RS:

So the Clintonites/istas can again dream of dancing on the grave of Senator Obama's candidacy... for a little while.

People keep talking about ballast, but you forget what this is supposed to be - a "change" election. And the only candidate now who does represent that change is Senator Obama. If you want to know why he did what he did in the past - just go read his books. He has been pretty open and honest.

(No "I didn't inhale!" or "I did not have sex with that woman!" or "I was under sniper fire, and that's what happened!")

Methinks the superdelegates realize this - as an article pointed out recently, there are good reasons not all supers flocked to the Clinton camp early on, even though as late as Sept/Oct last year it was inevitable that Senator Clinton would be the nominee. And they have not forgotten those reasons, which are still very much valid. Otherwise this would be the perfect moment for a flood of supers to Senator Clinton - and that has not happened.

Finally, to all those who live and die by general election polls coming out now - this too shall pass.

:-D

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kingsbridge77:

Clinton's lead vanished because the media hate her. The media does not hate McCain, on the other hand.

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happycozy:

This poll shows that Obama can overcome the Wright controversy, but the longer the dems slug it out, the better McCain's chances are of winning in the fall

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Style_jet7:

As a new Democrat (switched in last pres election) I am disappointed that Obama has not explained to me what his policies would be. I guess I am biased b/c I fall in HRC's demographics: wht 35+ male, but I am college edu and WC. I don't think I am being racist, but I don't know what I am buying if I vote for Obama. He is a big ? W/ HRC or JM I know what I am getting.

As for gas tax break. As a WC Amer I can use every $ I can save. Obama does look like an elitist being against it.

Would I vote for Obama in Nov? I don't know? I am undecided unless HRC is his running mate I would. If not i might vote JM.

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Style_jet7:

To further a thought:
One thing the polls have not reflected is that people vote with their wallets. In Okla. we were better off during Clinton vs. GWB. That is why I think Okla voted 70% for HRC.

Also, that is why the late U's break for her-- she has the clearer, more developed economic "message" for the electorate vs. Obama.

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