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POLL: Diageo/Hotline National (8/18-24)


Diageo / The Hotline
8/18-24/08; 1,022 RV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 44, McCain 40
(June: Obama 44, McCain 42)

 

Comments
Jeff:

Hey, Eric, as of 1:30 EDT the link for this poll goes to an old poll (from June).

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freedomreigns:

I don't know anything about this pollster, but it seems that while Obama hasn't gone up, McCain has gone down. This seems odd except for one thing. This is a Registered Voter poll, not Likely voter. So then it makes sense. Among registered voters, Obama is leading and perhaps should be leading by more. That comes up to defining the undecideds and turnout.

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Dave:

oops looks like obama doubled his lead. if a 1 point change in the other poll could be called "halving" his lead, then we can call this one doubling, can't we? uh huh.

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faithhopelove:

This poll is good news for Obama; but today's tracking polls are good news for McCain. It's a very close race.

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Louis:

Neither the tracking poll or this poll are really good news or bad news, since the extent they are statistical noise is unknown. The campaign use polls to track the effects of various issues and approaches to them. As well as to get some idea on the state level were allocation of resources need to go. But no oneat any serios campaign treats as good news or bad news a change of one or two percent in a daily tracking pool. If they did all the campaign staff of both candidates would have committed harri karri by know based on what the numbers were on a given Tuesday or Wenesday.

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Louis:

Neither the tracking poll or this poll are really good news or bad news, since the extent they are statistical noise is unknown. The campaign use polls to track the effects of various issues and approaches to them. As well as to get some idea on the state level were allocation of resources need to go. But no oneat any serios campaign treats as good news or bad news a change of one or two percent in a daily tracking pool. If they did all the campaign staff of both candidates would have committed harri karri by know based on what the numbers were on a given Tuesday or Wenesday.

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Clint Cooper:

OLD POLL ALERT!

Hey guys, fix the link. Thanks.

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Jeff:
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faithhopelove:

The narrative of this poll reports that it found a very modest 1 point improvement in Obama's numbers after the Biden announcement.

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cinnamonape:

I found that the questions about the confidence that respondants had about the candidsates winning was interesting. Despite the close numbers, Democrats and Independents are clearly far more confident that Obama will win than Republicans are that McCain will prevail.

In addition...on who would handle the economy, healthcare, educational issues, better Obama strongly led McCain. Only on Iraq did McCain do better than Obama...and it was given much lower priority than the economy by most respondants.

This could be a big problem for McCain...since the closer Iraq moves to a resolution that might suggest a successful surge strategy, the ess it becomes an issue, and pulling out or reducing troops becomes more reasonable. It's a Hobbesian dilemma for McCain.

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