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POLL: EPIC/MRA Michigan (8/18-21)


EPIC-MRA /
The Detroit News
8/18-21/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Michigan
Obama 43, McCain 41, Nader 3, Barr 1
(July: Obama 43, McCain 41, Nader 3, Barr 2

Sen: Levin (D-i) 59, Hoogendyk (R) 27
(July: Levin 58, Hoogendyk 32)

 

Comments
Another Mike:

OMG! Barr's support is collapsing.

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marctx:

Romney should seal the deal in MI

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=52d98ca6-6c14-4f4a-9180-4e7f1fce8a1a

I don't think America has elected two liberal yankees since there were 13 colonies. Someone look that up.

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TheVoice_99:

And look what happened when America "elected" two idiots from red states.

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KipTin:

I just read a Politico article yesterday about the GOP post-convention strategy. One tactic is focusing on Michigan and blaming the Democrats for their economic woes. Unfortunately, for Governor Granholm this will probably work very well.

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marctx:

Since Michelle Obama has been proud of this country for a few months now, lets make our prediction on how many times she says she loves/is proud of this country tonight. Someone let me know, I don't care to watch it.

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marctx:

My guess is 7.

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thoughtful:

Before any body gets too excited here. Charles Franklin has just put an article up which is very insightful "How Pollsters affect Poll Results".

I think that this pollster house flavour is McCain.

Hey like the other polls we have been looking at there there seems to be alot of Dems and Indie undecided.

Marctx and the surveyusa poll you are referring to is 3 months old? Dream on!

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TheVoice_99:

there a lot of nutjobs on this board.

ie blaming dems for the mess repubs created - good one!

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KipTin:

Well, I am not too enthused about Michelle being tonight's opening night featured speaker. I do not know what that is all about. I understand Hillary (and in the past Eleanor Roosevelt) having prominent roles because they are/were as individuals both prominent in the Democrat Party and they both stood strong for human and women's rights. What has Michelle ever done that was noteworthy? I can find NOTHING and I have searched.

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My reading of Mr Franklin's post was that the house biases, even at their most extreme, don't amount to very much.

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Tybo:

"What has Michelle ever done that was noteworthy?"

she got 25% of the grant that obama got the chicago hosptial..
in 4 years she got more than the hospital got

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KipTin:

I don't see anyone on this thread blaming dems for the mess. Maybe you disagree with reporting from a news source. Maybe you do not understand the relationship of a Governor to her state's economic status. Or maybe you do not know that Michigan was already suffering economically before the national economy began to falter. The Republicans see an "opportunity" and they are going to take advantage of it. It is called POLITICS.

BTW... calling other posters names does not make a very cogent argument.

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thoughtful:

@Undecided

I was going to write a piece identifying who the undecideds were and how they were likely to break.

But unfortunately I am dog tired from all my travelling. However, maybe some one would like to confirm my back of the envelope reckoning that 50% are Indies, 35% Democrats and 15% Repubs are undecided.

If I am right McCain has an even bigger uphill task. Although it may not continue to break this way the Indie vote has been splitting about 50/50 so although MSM is referring to Clinton Democrats, is there going to be such a thing as McCain Democrats, if these are in fact a substantial number of the undecideds the polls are identifying?

How many of these Repub undecideds are going to actually vote for McCain?

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KipTin:

Very clever and funny, Tybo. Reminds me of late night comedy.

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illinoisindie:

would someone actually care about commenting on this poll!! Sheesh

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Tybo:

thanks kiptin ( i think)

if only theobama fans would take off their rose coloured glasses and see obama for what he is (and isn't)

it's embarassing that they are just like bush fans

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freedomreigns:

I am convinced that MI has a 3 or 4% barrier that just cannot be breached by a republican. Recent trending in this state just does not seem to back this poll's findings.

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Stillow:

I agree. But KipTin's commets on the GOP strategy for post convention in MI might work. Blame the Dems for the problems in MI....its plausible. Dems have run that stae for a long long time and its in horrible economic shape, withthe right message aybe you can peal just enough voters off to support McCain....uphill battle for sure.

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marctx:

thoughtful:
"I was going to write a piece" ...just like I thought before mr/ms. intolerance. You're a shill. Elitist party official or journalist.

So now Obama is pandering to the racist vote by selecting the biggest racist in the democratic party. Biden called Obama the first "clean" AA candidate and he said you can't go into a 7-11 without speaking Indian. Tell that to Governor Bobby Jindal. The world has come along way since Biden plagiarized his first speach. Racism not acceptable anymore Mr. Biden.

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faithhopelove:

This poll shows a close race in MI (not surprisingly, as it was close in 2004 and both candiates are campaigning hard there). It also shows no movement. Its sample is small, but its results are similar to other polls of Michigan. Every MI poll since May has shown Obama ahead. This poll is already a bit dated, as it was completed before the Biden announcement. Biden may help Obama slightly in MI, as the state has a large number of Roman Catholics.

A McCain-Romney ticket would be difficult to beat there, as Mitt's father was Michigan's governor. Romney would also likely help McCain hold Nevada (large Mormon population). However, his presence on the ticket would hurt McCain in other places, as it would depress turnout among conservative evangelicals. (Romney has flip-flopped on the abortion issue, and he is a Mormon--many conservative evangelicals consider Mormonism to be a cult.) Yesterday's Zogby "flash" poll had Obama-Biden ahead of McCain-Romney nationwide by 2 points. If Romney did not deliver Michigan for McCain, then McCain would almost certainly lose the election, as Romney's presence would likely help Obama in VA, IA, and CO, all of which have large conservative evangelical populations. (Why did Huckabee beat Romney in IA and do so well in VA?)

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Stillow:

Dems cannot be reacist, just ask Howard Dean. Wait til McCain picks Romney...all you will hear from the MSM is here the GOP goes again, two rich white guys running......

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KipTin:

Michigan also has a very large number of Arab-American Muslims who many may end up voting for Arab-American Nader (also Catholic) this year if Obama fails to court their vote. Obama has been really hands off because he does not want to be mistaken for a Muslim).

Did you forget that Colorado also has a large Mormon population (as does Idaho and Oregon)? Iowa is Obama's so no loss there for McCain. I would need to do more research on Virginia to see if Romney is a negative there or not. I do not think the Republican primary Huckabee factor (among multiple candidates) applies to the General Election between two candidates.

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faithhopelove:

KipTin:

Last I heard or read, the Mormon population in CO is only about 3%.

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Stillow:

I don't know about CO, there is a huge mormon population in NV.......

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Michael:

You don't even need to wait for McCain to announce Romney, we're already trying to calculate how many houses they have between them...

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Tybo:

"Michael:
You don't even need to wait for McCain to announce Romney, we're already trying to calculate how many houses they have between them..."

you might ask kerry and edwards...

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Patrick:

McCain will probably end up carrying Michigan with our without Romney, but it's a 'slam dunk' with Romney on the ticket. I grew up there and a lot of people still really like the Romneys.

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brambster:

I'll comment on this poll. Obama is ahead in Michigan, just as every poll since June has shown.

Because of the number of outs that Obama has (Southwest, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida), and the likelihood of Obama picking up at least one of those outs for an EV victory, Michigan becomes a must win state for McCain. This cycle it's not Florida, it's not Ohio, it's Michigan. Michigan however is not going to be an easy nut to crack as it has voted for the Democrat in the past 4 elections.

Michigan, Michigan, Michigan.

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TheVoice_99:

Yeah, real close there tyno.

Someone needs a lesson in math.


Poor puma pansies, they are just a bunch of sore losers. Hillary ran a despicable kitchen sink type campaign and lost. GET OVER IT! All I hear is lies about how Obama is a misogynist. Really? Prove it. And now compare that to the real misogynist in the race, your new hero, the guy that joked about how ugly chelsea was, who jokes about rape and wife-beating, who called his wife the c word, who is against all forms of woman's rights. Yeah, that's what I thought. Makes you guys look pretty effing dumb, huh?

I'll tell you one thing, if Obama loses - Hillary and her idiot supporters will be blamed and I can guarantee you there will be no way in hell she wins in 2012 without AAs and students. Bet on it puma clowns.

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KipTin:

Regarding Mormon vote in the West--- it is all about turnout. Even a high turnout of a 2-3% demographic group in Colorado could make a difference in a tight election.

----

I am sure these national polls will be posted here soon:

CNN Obama 47, McCain 47
Gallup Tracking Obama 45, McCain 45
Rasmussen Tracking Obama 48, McCain 45
USA Today/Gallup Obama 48, McCain 45

Two ties and two at +3 Obama.

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Mike_in_CA:

First of all, Tybo and KipTin, there is no need to hate on Michelle Obama. She's a strong woman, who came from extremely modest beginnings, asserted herself, and has established a respectable place in the world. Isn't that what Republicans want? To acheive the "American Dream" whatever the hell that is anymore?

The vitriol that is spewed on this site makes me nauseous.

And, for your information, KipTin: Cindy McCain is the featured speaker on Wednesday night of the RNC Convention. What has SHE ever done in her life except inherit a lot of money??

Give me a freakin break people. Seriously.

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zotz:

The evangelicals do not concider Mormons to be Christians. Romney would help in MI only with older voters. McCain despises him. I think we should start concidering people other than Romney for VP. Romney definately is not a slam dunk.

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obas:

I live in Michigan and I have to tell you, I don't think Romney will seal the deal. From the sounds of things McCain's strong spots are Oakland and Macomb county. Oakland for sure, Macomb is shaky at best. We may hate Granholm and Kwame but we are still fairly Democrats in this area. Most people in my age group 18-30 don't even know anything about romney other than he ran amway than outsourced those jobs. I'd be shocked if he locked up MI for McCain.

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zotz:

In 1992 Hillary made a comment about baking cookies the the right used to label her as "elitist". One statement should not be used to define a person's entire career. The same should be true for Michelle. Give her a break.

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Tybo:

"Mike_in_CA:
First of all, Tybo and KipTin, there is no need to hate on Michelle Obama.
"

you think it's hateful to point out that Michelle got 25%(in salary) of the million dollar grant that obama got for the Chicago hospital?
Whoa, hold on there. It's a fact. It's neutral of sentiment.
(and it's wrong that she got that money, but that's an opinon, not a hateful one)

Hateful is calling americans bitter.

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KipTin:

I don't see any "hate"... I just do not see any reason to "admire" Michelle Obama in context of her being a speaker at the Dem convention. Really, what has she accomplished that is relevant to politics or community or human rights or anything in which a Hillary or an Eleanor have shown commitment and/or leadership?

Also a fact that Michelle got promoted and a large pay raise/payout after her employer hospital received funding from her husband's Senate earmark.

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KipTin:

Regarding evangelicals... some of them consider Catholics the same way they consider Mormons.

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KipTin:

Wow, Mike is asking me what Cindy McCain has done in her life? Are you kidding?

Founded and ran a non-profit organization, the American Voluntary Medical Team, from 1988 to 1995 that organized trips by medical personnel to disaster-struck or war-torn third-world areas. She led 55 of these missions.

When AVMT ended, Cindy McCain founded the Hensley Family Foundation, which donates monies towards children's programs in Arizona and nationally.

She became actively involved with Operation Smile in 2001. She was honored by the organization in 2005, and sits on its board of directors.[32] She joined the board of directors of CARE in 2005 and is on the board of the HALO Trust. Cindy has visited operations to remove landmines in Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Mozambique, and Angola. (Wikipedia)

The only board that I am aware that Michelle has served on is for a Wal-mart supplier for which she was paid very well.

My real beef with both Barack and Michelle Obama is that they keep telling people to serve their communities, when as far as I know both have always been paid for their so-called community work. None of it was volunteer... which means "receive no compensation."

I myself have been an "unpaid" community volunteer for over 30 years. The Obamas have never walked in the moccasins of true community service.

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Mike_in_CA:

Answer the question, KipTin, Why is Cindy McCain admirable enough to speak in St. Paul?

Eleanor accomplished everything she did once she was First Lady. Get a life, dude.

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Mike_in_CA:

do you think she could have done all that if she wasn't living off Daddy's money?


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Stillow:

Who cares if Michelle speaks at the convention....she should. She has said some boneheaded comments o nthe campaign trail, but let her speak, she's the potential first lady, the people need to know her....as well as Cindy.

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reverendmatt:

I don't get how Romney is supposed to deliver Michigan, his father was Governor there in the 60's . Mitt left Michigan after high school and has no real following there except maybe with very old party insiders. VP's whether Biden or who ever McCain picks will make very little difference in this campaign unless they are gaffe prone or some scandal surfaces.

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KipTin:

So why is money so evil? The Obamas are $4 million richer because of a couple of books.

Oh, yeah, Cindy's dad built his business from scratch in 1955 borrowing $10,000 against everything he owned. And previous to his business career he was awarded the distinguished flying cross for his military service in WWII.

Notably, Cindy did not work in the business after graduating from college (Master of Arts in Special Ed)as her father wanted. She instead chose to teach special ed kids. By the way Cindy even wrote a published research paper (unlike either of the Obamas) titled "Movement Therapy: A Possible Approach."

So much for "living off Daddy's money"... because Cindy sure put it to good use. Name me a worthwhile organization that the Obamas support with money and/or participitation. (Reverend Wright's church does not count.)

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KipTin:

Are you kidding me? You think Eleanor Roosevelt's accomplishments came after she was First Lady. Boy do you need a history lesson.

FYI... one of her many accomplishments BEFORE the White House: She worked with the Women's Trade Union League in support of a 48-hour work week, minimum wage, and the abolition of child labor. And that was in her 30s... Michelle is now 44 and has not done a darn thing that even comes close to Eleanor (or Hillary or Cindy) had at that age. And they all raised their own children... so no excuse there. Eleanor had six children (one died).

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Mike:

KipTin is what you get when a political campaign pays people for posting on the internet. Completely illogical and unproductive partisan hackery. Congratulations Kip for being the poster boy of the Amazing McCain 8 year flip flop.

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DocnTN:

Every election cycle, the GOP thinks they'll pull off Michigan, and every election cycle they lose it. Even with Romney on the ticket, there are just enough educated types and AAs in Michigan to make it virtually impossible for them to break the last 3-4% they need to take the state.

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faithhopelove:

KipTin:

I grew up in evangelical circles. It's true, as you say above, that some evangelicals think that both Mormons and Catholics are members of cults. In general, however, they are more critical of Mormons. Also, Obama is not counting on evangelical votes; McCain is.

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saywhat90:

kiptin,

so i guess you are saying that teacher only do it for the money when they go to teach. teaching is a community service, and most who who teach really care about the students who they teach. but i guess since they get paid they are only doing it for the money and that its just a job for them. even they are in one of the lowest paying jobs which requires at least a masters degree to have. or firemen who get paid. i guess they dont care about your house burning down if they dont get paid. or police, crime isnt there problem if they dont get paid. they are true community servicemen and women who get paid for what they do. heck american soldiers are community service too. they get paid for it. does it make their sacrifice any less significant because they get paid. just because you get paid doesnt make it less significant. you are doing a sevice for people who are in need. if they didnt care then they would have taken the jobs they were offered that gave then more money. but i guees you are so full of disdain for them that you make anything negative in what they do or say. i have great respect for cindy for her charity work. and i wouldnt denegrate it even she did get paid for it. because i know that community service comes in many forms.

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saywhat90:

in them i mean michelle and barack.

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Lappel1:

Thank you, saywhat90.

All motives are complex. That's because we are human. Bees work for the common good only but the rest have to be a bit more compromised in our behaviour. As a civil servant and a teacher myself, I perhaps work more directly for the common good than, say, a beer distributor. But I have my motives! And of course it can be argued that distributing beer is a lot useful to society than teaching students how to read and write.

In any case, in our complex lives we are nevertheless called upon to try to act morally. In the context of a discussion group like this, acting morally would probably mean -- arguing generously, and trying to keep to the subject of polling and what the polls mean, on the basis of evidence rather than prejudice.


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Lappel1:

Sorry, corrected version:

Thank you, saywhat90.

All motives are complex. That's because we are human. Bees work for the common good only but the rest of us have to be a bit more compromised in our behaviour. As a civil servant and a teacher myself, I perhaps work more directly for the common good than, say, a beer distributor. But I have my motives! And of course it can be argued that distributing beer is a lot more useful to society than teaching students how to read and write.

In any case, in our complex lives we are nevertheless called upon to try to act morally. In the context of a discussion group like this, acting morally would probably mean -- arguing generously, and trying to keep to the subject of polling and what the polls mean, on the basis of evidence rather than prejudice.

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saywhat90:

thank you lappel1.

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