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POLL: Field California


Field Poll

California
Obama 51, Clinton 38
Obama 52, McCain 35... Clinton 53, McCain 36

 

Comments
Andrew_in_California:

Hello reversal!

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Adam_Il:

We saw plenty of this reversal in California polls just before the primary. We don't need another reminder.

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Nickberry:

Is there a "black hole" where legitimate comments disappear never to be seen again?

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Nickberry:

OK, I will try again...

This is certainly a poll that one needs to look at the demographics:

For example: "Latino party members remain strongly committed to Clinton, 63% to 29%. "

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Nickberry:

And again with this....

52% of the survey respondents are college graduates, which in fact are Obama's base... but it is highly unlikely that over half of California's voters are in this category. One source (Public Policy Institute of California) indicates that the percentage of college graduates is 30%

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damitajo1:

Interesting poll. But Field, despite its venerable status, was way wrong on the Calif. primary. http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/2008/02/analysis_of_cal.html

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Patrick:

Well, who didn't think either Democrat could win CA? Or NY? Or any of the other safely "Blue" states that John Kerry won?? Even Michael Dukakis won many of those. Even if Obama and McCain turn a few smaller states (like Iowa or NH) from Red to Blue (or visa versa), it's still going to be the big key swing states of OH, PA, and FL that will decide the election AGAIN (just as they've decided the last several elections) no matter who wins the popular vote. And the fact of the matter is the demographics of those 3 states make it much harder for Obama to beat McCain than Clinton to beat McCain. It doesn't mean he can't. It just means he's less likely to, especially if Clinton supporters (who generally aren't afraid of McCain) feel he mistreated her.

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burrito:

Hmmm ... Interesting ... It seems to me that when some poll does not favor one of the candidates, there is some explanation about the demographics and why the numbers are skewed ...

I live in California, and this is consistent with I have seen in the last 2 months ...

As for the latino population, they will NEVER vote Republican ... I know this for sure ...

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Ciccina:

@ Patrick,

I would only add that if Obama doesn't carry PA plus OH or FL, it means he would be doing too poorly, overall, to knit together a victory by winning an array of smaller states that Gore and Kerry lost.

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Nickberry:

Commenting on the demographics of a poll is NOT "some explanation" but rather an analysis. And the idea that the latino population will never vote Republican does not hold water because in fact Bush received 35-40% of the Hispanic vote in 2000 and 2004.

I agree with Patrick on his analysis of the importance for Obama of the demographics in the traditional swing states.

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Uri:

Why are 11% of the people in California undecided? Didn't they vote in the primaries? (Aren't these LVs or Actually-Voteds)?

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Mark Blumenthal:

@Uri,

The question is not, which candidate did you support in the primary, nor which candidate would you support if the election were held (again) today. The question (p. 7) is:

"Who would you most like to see nominated as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate this year – Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?"


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MC_from_Cali.:

Just because bush won hispanic votes 4-8 years ago doesn't mean mccain is going to. there is a great dislike of the republican party by hispanics especially because of the stereotyping that has gone on of them by the rush limpo's and lou dobbs of the world. Even with mccain's immigration proposall will not help him, cause he went back to the right on that issue. Plus I do think obama will win Pennsylvania. Florida and Ohio are going to be tougher. But I do think he can win without those states. he can win all the states Kerry won plus Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. That's more than enough states to win and he is leading in all of those states.

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Nickberry:

McCain is not disliked by Hispanic voters. He sacrificed a lot for pushing immigration reform. During the GOP primaries McCain emphasized strong immigration enforcement (i.e. border security), but overall his basic stance has not changed in terms of comprehensive immigration reform. I suggest that you listen to one of his speeches.

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