The Field Poll
7/8-14/08; 672 LV, 3.9%
Obama 54, McCain 30
What next, a poll of Hawaii?
Posted on July 16, 2008 10:54 AM
where's tybo with his standard...."this is bad news for obama" comment? ROFLMMAO
Posted on July 16, 2008 10:56 AM
It is correct to assume that California has a large Hispanic/Latino population.
2006 U.S. Census QuickFacts: Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin__ California 35.9% United States 14.8%
BUT when it comes to voters....Even though 1/3 of California residents are Latino, only 14% are likely to vote. 72% of likely voters are white, while only being 48% of adult population.
California is also definitely a younger state in terms of age of residents:
2006 U.S. Census Quick Facts: Persons 65 years old and over___
California 10.8% United States 12.4%
Posted on July 16, 2008 11:26 AM
The reason that California is being polled is because the MCCAIN campaign mentions it in its "strategic video" in their website. The McCain campaign itself raised the bar in California, which I think was very, very silly on their part. They argued in the video, which is from two months ago, that McCain has a chance in the state based on the big chunck of independents and hispanics, both groups that are NOT supporting him, and his support from Arnold, the "governator." They did the same thing with Connecticut, which again, just show how lost the McCain campaign is regarding strategy.
Same thing goes with Obama, the reason that states like ND, Montana, AK, NC, VA, IN and all the others are being polled, which is unusual, is because Obama mentions them and is investing in them. If Obama had not raised expectations for him in those states, I really doubt pollsters will be investing money and time. McCain should have been more prudent when talking about states where he thinks(or thought) he might have a chance. Now, that his numbers just get worse, he looks like a fool.
P.S: In the McCain "strategic video," Rick Davis labels California as an state "to watch," to which poll after poll, Californias seem to reply: yeah, watch us staying firmly in the Obama column!!!!
Posted on July 16, 2008 11:32 AM
This poll (Field) has Obama +24 in CA. RealClear Politics.com has Obama +17.6 in CA. Fivethirtyeight.com has Obama between +13 and +16 in CA dependent on statistic used with a 97% win probability. These figures are consistent as to CA being a safe state for Obama.
Posted on July 16, 2008 12:01 PM
I also think that when one wins a certain state's primary, one starts to get the feeling that they're loved there.
I'm sure McCain was also hoping to dupe Obama into spending more in CA than he normally would.
Posted on July 16, 2008 1:25 PM
The Field Poll has nothing to do with any videos on a campaign website. Field -- which used to be called "The California Poll" (hint, hint) -- has been conducting survey research on politics for the California news media for 61 years. It's their business to do so (they are paid, y'know) regardless of whether or not anyone thinks the race is uncompetitive.
Posted on July 16, 2008 4:05 PM
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