Franklin & Marshall College
8/4-10/08; Likely Voters
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 46, McCain 41
8 point with Registered voters, 5 with likely voters 4% MOE. 8 point lead among independents.
Hopefully JM will continue to spend time and money here and WI, OR, CA, MN, and NJ.
Posted on August 13, 2008 11:10 AM
PA has been a reliable blue state for sometime....its always pretty close, but reliable for the Dems. I seriously doubt MCCain can steal PA barring a total blow up from Obama....
Posted on August 13, 2008 11:25 AM
well. the undecideds in this poll blow me away with the firmly entrenched numbers still hovering around 20%.
but this fact jumped out into my face that seems consistent with other polling data: "In fact, more Democrats are concerned about Obama (34%)than are Republicans who are concerned about McCain (21%)."
anyway, something else to consider:
641 respondents on a very long and involved questionnaire. if someone called me and started in on this i'd karate chop the phone.
those who gave the time might have had an axe to grind or a modus operandi knowing full well that the polls affects other polls, if you get my drift.
Posted on August 13, 2008 11:29 AM
What got me was the Female/Male ratio. And the age weighting demographic. A lot of over 65s!
Posted on August 13, 2008 11:34 AM
i wish this had been taken post edwards revelations. now that would have been more revealing.
@boskop your clutching at straws with the Edwards thing. Any idea when next poll is being published from Indiana and by whom?
Posted on August 13, 2008 11:37 AM
the whole point of polls is to SEE IF news events alter polling stats. they didn't so much with wright but they did with the berlin trip.
so it seems no one including you can fairly predict what toll if any these hot spots cause.
once again, i am extremely eager to see IF there is a negative response.
Posted on August 13, 2008 11:41 AM
"And the age weighting demographic. A lot of over 65s!"
Have you ever been to PA? My parents are from there. It seems like the whole middle of the state is a retirement village. Just kidding, but it is a very old state.
Posted on August 13, 2008 11:51 AM
Yup, another poll showing people don't trust mccain. Too bad for him it will be a landslide for obama come november. Maybe they saw the video of mccain that has gone viral. I believe 1magine posted it earlier.
Posted on August 13, 2008 12:04 PM
PA was one of those states with a lot of Reagan Democrats. You've seen a slow trickle of the Reagan Democrats heading back to the Democratic party for a few cycles now. Since McCain is no Reagan, I assume the trend will continue.
Posted on August 13, 2008 12:09 PM
Very good 37% of this poll is over 55 and 21% is over 65.
Posted on August 13, 2008 12:12 PM
50% democrats vs. 38% republican? Is that reflective of the states likely voters? This poll looks good for McCain only because Obama is stuck at 46% again. A shoe-in candidate would be polling 50+. So, at least there are plenty of undecideds to TRY and win over. Anyway, announce the VPs already!! Start the conventions!!! ...That's when the party is really going to get started.
Posted on August 13, 2008 12:15 PM
Agreed, but I don't see Obama or McCain being affected by the Edwards thing. McCain did his but didn't apparently lie about it.
I think that we are seeing an adverse effect on McCain of his negative or flippant Ad campaign.
Early days but I think McCain might have rattled the some wrong cages over Georgia and it may well get worse for him.
Fox may be changing some of their editorial stance. RM doesn't need a guy in the WH that wants to go into WW3!
PS Sebelius 2nd favorite for VP with bookies
Posted on August 13, 2008 12:20 PM
Did I read your post right? You think only McCain has negative ads running and you think McCain wants WW3? I'm just tryign to clarify what you posted.
Posted on August 13, 2008 12:25 PM
I agree, I hope he picks Sebelius for VP! That would be awesome.
Posted on August 13, 2008 12:29 PM
aren't you beating that sebelius drum rather loudly! :>}
seriously though, i read a decent piece somewhere FT or IBD that had the short list for obama. richardson was no where to be found.
no wit seems the keynote warner is addessing theconvention on he security. this makes me think even more so that it's alead in to
what think you?
let's try that one again.
i read a decent op ed on o's short list. no richardson. but keynote speaker warner is doing the lead in on security the one little hole left for obama to conceptualize and plug.
could it be for bill? he answers all requisites plus he cant upstage obama cause he's well, uh, not as cute looking.
the real interesting thing is that as they say the first really big presidential decision these guys make is their vp.
if obama ego does a block and tackle on anyone of real charisma cum resume then you have yes, "thoughtful", a window into his real core not unlike any other distinct behavior that sheds light on the true man....like the edwards we all missed.
Posted on August 13, 2008 12:40 PM
Mccain cant win this election because of the demographics.in order for Mccain to win he have to get 45% of the latino vote,10% of the black vote,55% of the asian vote,and 59% of the white vote,if he gets these percentages in these key groups he will win by only 2% go checkout the demographics,the minority vote will be 73% this year,this means the gop is in a world of trouble in they know it.If obama gets 96% of the black vote in 50% of the asian vote in 63% of the latino vote,and 44% of the white vote its going to be a landslide,because right now in all the polls obama is winning by these percentages with these key groups.in reality obama should win by 8% points which will be a landlide,that equals out to 370 electoral votes,the demographics dont lie.
Posted on August 13, 2008 12:44 PM
During the Dem primaries several stated that PA has the oldest population in the nation.
If it is Sebelius, Obama will lose for sure.
McCain was just in PA yesterday spending time in a town hall meeting with an exceptionally large turnout for such an event.
Posted on August 13, 2008 12:46 PM
@Stillow No You're in Nevada Obama has a great ad there you want all that Nuke waste that McCain don't want in Arizona. McCain is unfortunately on the wrong Geo-Political stage hence the WW3 comment. Obama wins Nevada.
He doesn't need Richardson for NM or the Hispanics not that close. He does need the white women's vote to negate the white male. The risk with Sebelius is inexperience in foreign affairs, national stature. You know about the Ohio thing her father is well respected throughout the Mid West. She has been a good Governor, I don't know of any other negatives. Obama has a good line up of heavyweights with National Security credentials.
Posted on August 13, 2008 12:47 PM
what can i say. if you're convinced, god bless you.
i'm hoping he gets in and then the obama love in will be officially over and we can start iand dicing the dude as he deserves.
Posted on August 13, 2008 12:49 PM
@Undecided I thought Florida had the oldest demographic in the nation? McCain could arguably pick it up with Ridge on the ticket.
I don't know why you are right off/dismissive Sebelius. Bookies don't cut odds without good reason. Bayh is 5/2 and Sebelius and Wes Clark are 13 to 2 2nd favorites. the resy are 10/1 out the rest of the field.
Posted on August 13, 2008 12:54 PM
In Dayton the other night, there were some construction workers talking about the negative ads during the swimming competition. (PS -they were not happy to have a proud American moment ruined.)
They were also talking about this "show" (their word). That's how I learned about it. My mom lives in Boca, and she's seen it. At 68 she has finally become politically active, and is passing it around.
So, I'm sorry to keep posting this:
But some have not seen the film. I was really surprised that my mom saw it before me.
Posted on August 13, 2008 12:55 PM
@thoughtful, ok gotcha....but NV stays red, probably for the last time this year.
@eugene - He won't get 370, this election will probably be very very close. Its possible to see a very lcose opular vote but have the electoral map break to one person like 1960.
The left shouldn't take minorities for granted. As more of them begin to prospure and join the middle cnad upper classes you should see a shift to the right.Kitchen table economics will start taking hold in those households will "I" think will trump entitlements....Especially first generation immigrants will usually support the left because the left gives out more free stuff, so its natrual to gravitate to the party giving you more free stuff....but as they beging to prospure, own there own homes, etc, a shift to the right should take place....
Short term its going to be very bad for the GOP, there's some light at the end of the tunnel I think, but short term will be bad.
Posted on August 13, 2008 1:05 PM
Easy to dismiss Sebelius. Have you heard her speak? She makes Lieberman sound exciting.
Also she is highly UNQUALIFIED to be second in command and replacement President.
Too many odds makers are only looking at gender and appearance. Why not Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano? She is the equivalent of Sebelius but not as "pretty."
That is what guys (oddmakers) do. They do not pay attention to substantial attributes of women candidates, but rather their "image." (Hint: "Image" was not used in a positive sense.)
Posted on August 13, 2008 1:43 PM
@Undecided you miss it - Sebelius is very acceptable, Running mates don't normally influence the outcome do they? This about solidifying the women's votes. She is mooved qualified than Bill Clinton was and unlike McCain she actually run Government. All McCain does is pontificate, the Military would never had even dreamt of giving him a Command!
Posted on August 13, 2008 1:51 PM
@Undecided You miss it. Sebelius is very acceptable. More qualified than Bill Clinton was and much more qualified than John McCain who has never managed, led or governed anything in his life.
@Stillow I think the LOCAL economy loses McCain the election in Nevada plus I think the demographics have changed in the Dems favour in the last few years.
Posted on August 13, 2008 1:55 PM
wow, a lot of delusion on this board it seems.
Only children or trolls would think the edwards affair would affect obama-mccain ratings. what a joke. funny, the trolls didn't say anything when stevens was indicted, you know, for breaking the LAW. no one ventured that mccain would suffer in the polls. yet edwards, who didn't break the law, is somehow supposed to affect the race?? get real.
the race will be stagnant for awhile....
but, by all means, keep defecating your "ideas"......
Posted on August 13, 2008 2:00 PM
Ooops, there go a lot of the trolls' theories.
The trolls said the celebrity ad was going to be damaging to obama, they said the edwards affair was supposed to hurt him, they said mccain was making up ground.....ooops, the trolls were wrong again!
For all those betting that this is going to be a close election or that mccain is going to win, please feel free to put in your bets at intrade.com, and you might make yourself some money.
Posted on August 13, 2008 2:15 PM
Yep... the Gallup Poll Obama 48/McCain 42.
"This is similar to Obama's 5-point leads in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports from Monday and Tuesday, but is slightly better for Obama than his average 3-point lead for the months of June and July....
Still, in a historical sense, the race remains fairly close and is similar to other open presidential races. In some of these cases (1960, 1988, 2000, and 2004) the lead switched between the two major party candidates over the convention period. Strong front-runners of past elections who ultimately won by big margins (presidential incumbents Bill Clinton in 1996, Ronald Reagan in 1984, Richard Nixon in 1972, and Lyndon Johnson in 1964) all led their opponents by more than 15 points in the pre-convention phase during those election years."
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:07 PM
This correlates with the Rasmussen daily tracking which has Obama 44/McCain 42 (with leaners Obama 48/McCain 46)... aka "the race remains fairly close." (With margin of error 2%... VERY CLOSE.)
Also comparable to PEW poll showing Obama 46/McCain 43 within margin of error.
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:14 PM
What? Sebelius (governor for 5 years) is more experienced than Bill Clinton was who was governor for 12 years? How does that math work out? Still does not take away that when Sebelius speaks, people snore.
And so if "running government" is so important as you thus dissed McCain, then how is Obama qualified at all?
Solidifying the women's vote? That is what is so frustrating that too many think that women supported Hillary just because of her gender. Hillary got over 18 million votes because of her substance and tough persistent persona. She may not be a smooth talker like Obama but she is hell of a debater because of her intelligence and grasp of the facts.
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:22 PM
Penn will go Obama as Florida will go McCain, both states close but will be reliable to the candidates.
Posted on August 13, 2008 5:54 PM
Obama at +5 slightly less than 538 projection at Obama +7. It would seem any realistic Obama win must include PA.
Posted on August 13, 2008 8:48 PM
lol at the delusional trolls. The Edwards affair - HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA! That was a real knee slapper. I'm so sure that would affect anything. HA!
Posted on August 14, 2008 12:02 AM
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