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POLL: Gallup Daily Tracking

Gallup Poll

Obama 50, Clinton 44
Clinton 46, McCain 46... Obama 45, McCain 45

Public Shows Little Love for Bush, Congress
Americans Concerned About Impact of Leaving Iraq
"Poor" Rating of Economy Inches Up


NOT Mike in CA:

Obama is merely tied with McCain just because people nationally do not yet know Barack Obama. Once he campaigns there and people get to know him, he will overcome McCain and win in a landslide by 15, maybe 20 points. He will make 1964 and 1984 look close.


Mike, what do you mean "once he campaigns there"? You mean in the United States?

Time to edit the boilerplate, son.



Obama ties with McCain because he has a few rough weeks and Hillary has been attacking him causing some resentment among Democrats.

Once the partisan battles (without self-inflicted intra-Dem wounds) start, I fully expect Obama to come back up and down and up and up and up.


Javy Lopez:

Benjamin, Obama had some rough weeks because his campaign dropped the ball several times and the Clinton campaign took the advantage and went after him on it. That's what this is- a contest- and if he's the nominee the attacks are just going to get worse.

Obama supporters seem to believe the man will have a cake walk against McCain and the Republicans. When he doesn't they'll probably blame Hillary- reflex action- when instead they should have learned a thing or two.

Unfortunately I think McCain will eat Obama alive. Pretty words don't best a war hero.



I guess Ferraro's comments amounted to Obama dropping the ball? And Clinton saying he has not crossed the Commander-in-chief threshold was him dropping the ball? And the reappearance of the race debate is because he dropped the ball? He hasn't dropped the ball, the Clintons have dropped the Democratic ball. They are trying to tear him down in an "if I can't win neither will you" mentality. I think once this bickering is over Obama's numbers will rise because Democrats will hopefully be better aligned. I know it will take time, but Democrats who supported Hillary will soon realize the whole reason why they're Democrats is because they so passionately disagree with the John McCain's of the world.



Axlerod tried the racism play on Ferraro. He didn't anticipate her firing back. When she did, it made the story more prominent and kept it alive past the Mississippi primary - not what the Obama campaign wanted. Instead of the story being part of the Mississippi narrative, its become part of the Pennsylvania narrative.

Thanks to Axelrod, Obama's icky Pastor is now fair game for the media and the Republicans. If Obama doesn't reject and repudiate him, he looks like a hypocrite. And if he does, he admits fault and looks like a sell out.

I know you Obama people read this sort of post as an attack, but its not. You have to be able to see your candidate's flaws or you will get blindsided. It's called learning.



At this point we know that:

1) Obama will end the contest with the most pledged delegates,

2) Obama will likely end the contest with the popular vote tally,

3) Obama will end the contest with the most money and greatest fundraising potential,

4) Obama will end the contest with the most states,

5) Obama will end the contest with the best poll numbers against McCain, and

6) Obama will end the contest with the most primary state victories and caucus state victories.

So what's left for Team Clinton? She has to convince a majority of the super delegates to cast their vote for her, so how does she get those supers to ignore all of the above Obama advantages in order to cast their ballot for the candidate who is losing?

Apparently, it's a two-pronged strategy.

The first is what we've been seeing this week -- tear down a candidate who has inspired and given hope to millions by appealing to white resentment and turning him into the "black candidate". It's ugly and revolting, but the Clinton campaign is banking on it scaring people away from Obama. And by "people", I mean "super delegates".

Remember, Clinton can't win based on the math. The rules -- the "process" -- are her enemy. The only way she can win is by having the super delegates ignore all of Obama's clear advantages -- a coup by super delegate. And the way that coup is by tearing Obama down and discrediting the process that gave Obama those advantages.

But here's the rub -- the "process that gave Obama those advantages" includes latte drinkers, and black people, and young people, and red state Democrats, and small state Democrats, and blue states that voted for Obama.

So it's a sort of Catch-22 -- she needs the super delegates to abandon the winner for her loser campaign, but the way she's trying to win them over is by insulting their very states and constituencies.

Clinton is in a bad place. She is behind in every metric that matters, and has been relegated to trashing our likely nominee and entire Democratic Party constituencies and states in order to make the case that she's somehow "more electable" despite all evidence to the contrary. Unfortunately for her, the super delegates aren't all cloistered in New York or in DC.

They represent the United States of America. And outside of Clinton's Blue bastions, her insults aren't winning any new converts.


Ciccina beatdown again:

As RS said before:


The Obama camp did not "play the racism card" on Ms Ferraro. She brought that on herself by saying that if Senator Obama were not Black, he would not be in this position. Mind you, she did not say "part of the reason is because he's Black," which might be somewhat true. No - she effectively said the ONLY reason for Senator Obama's success is his Blackness (and gender).

That, actually, is in line with the Clinton campaign's continued absolute-negation of Senator Obama's life experience - which is not as much as a 60-year-old Washington pol's, but definitely not that of a complete greenhorn either. Senator Obama has been a community organizer, was a civil rights lawyer, a state legislator for eight years (where even Republicans admired him for his bipartisan approach). In the US Senate, Senator Obama has been active with Senator Lugar (R) on nuclear proliferation and has helped craft comprehensive ethics reform along with Senator Feingold (D).

And yet, according to the Clinton campaign and Ms Ferraro, all that is NOUGHT. All the support, votes, $100+million that Senator Obama raises in $20/$50/$100 donations from ordinary folks - all that is purely because Senator Obama is Black.

If that was the case, we would be seeing the re-election campaign of President Sharpton or President Carol Moseley Braun (not to denigrate their own achievements).

There are other factors which set Senator Obama apart from the rest of the Democratic field, aside from his Blackness. If a person (say "X") can't see Senator Obama's intelligence, his ability to see his opponents as people rather than as a demonic part of some vast right-wing conspiracy, his openness about his troubled youth and his financial records, his status as a relative outsider in Washington - and just looks at his Blackness - I think that says more about that person "X" than about Senator Obama.


Come again?:


YOU are the joke! lol.

Ferraro looked like a crazy old lady. Put her on the long list of dubious Clinton supporters: Spitzer, Slick Willy, Bob Johnson, and now, ladies and gentlemen.....Geraldine "I was a VP candidate only because I am a woman" Ferraro! Ferraro everyone!

Great job Geraldine....you stay classy now.


"his ability to see his opponents as people rather than as a demonic part of some vast right-wing conspiracy" = Bush in 2000

"his openness about his troubled youth" = Bush in 2000

"his status as a relative outsider in Washington" = Bush in 2000

"helped craft comprehensive ethics reform along with Senator Feingold (D)" = McCain-Feingold, anyone?

"his intelligence" = definitely not Bush. But Hillary is intelligent, as are Dodd, Biden, Richardson, etc. So was Gore, so was Kerry.

And by the way, insults and expletives do not constitute a beatdown. Its an admission that you have nothing substantive to say.



How about "future president of the USA" = Bush in 2000


John - Spokane, WA:

News flash - for all you math wizards that have declared that hillary cannot win the required delegates, NEITHER CAN OBAMA !! LOL

Im sorry to tell you that there is no rule that says that if neither candidate makes the required amount, that OBAMA wins !!! LOL

There is NO rule that says if Obama happens to be ahead (even if its narrowly or otherwise) in the Popular vote but not enough delegates - HE WINS - sorry there is no such rule!! LOL


Besides, every day that Rev Wright has one of his WONDERFUL videos appear on the news networks OR Mr. Rezko's dealings with the wanna be President OR Louis Farrakahn sounds off with his overwhelming support of Mr. "O" - He slips further and further away and finally even his mesmerized College crew is starting to see the light and realizing that maybe, just maybe, this is NOT THE CHANGE they invisioned.


Jerome A:

I agree with you John - Spokane. Kos and I do not see eye to eye on this.


Ferraro a crazy old lady? How about Rev. Wright's comments?

Read my blogs on mydd.com about this subject. This man has been the spiritual advisor to Obama for 20 years! He's a racist hate speech preacher who is also anti-American. That's Obama's moral compass? It looks broken to me. If you cannot trust his judgement on the company he holds in high esteem, how can you judge him for president?


John - Spokane, WA:


Glad you are with the awakened, so many are not yet!! LOL

The stuff your seeing now on Obama - is just the beginning, it gets alot worse, just watch.



i am sorry to rain on your party (i love obama) but the guy have no political survival instinkts, he is too easy going too laid back about somethings that are importent to people, he lacks the political empathy to be candidade for all.
take Farakhan Obama could not in the first place come out and drop him like a hot potato, because " the guy thinks that i am a good guy"
i am sorry but which planet are you on, dont you know what someone people feel about farakhan. Obama made the same mistake with the anti-gay pastor he took on a gospel tour, not because he shared his value but because he could not reject him, Obama need to reject the pastor of his churche long time ago, but he cannot do that their because he sees the good in All, i am sorry but that is just asking for trouble, if you dont run away from idiots they are going to sink you to the bottom. so what ever you may think of him as a person he has no political empathy remember the lapel-gate, he did not understand why some people would find that troubling. This is the central problem with being nice, if you cannot reject anyone you will surround yourself with everyone, wait for the next news about Obamas KKK Supporter or Obama anti-islam supporter or Obams anti-abortion supporter



I dont get the "delusion" on here that Hillary is able to win a general election against the most "likeable" republican since Reagan (who will carry the independants in an Obama absence). Pretty soon in the press we will be hearing the parallel "Mc-Cain democrats" instead of Reagan-democrats. My take on the Stats is that she is winning the party democrats and obama where he is winning is shoring up his party democratic vote with the new independant young voter and some cross over republicans. Al Gore and John Kerry had the Clinton strategy we see where that got them. If Kerry had only carried one of the purplish states that Obama will probably carry,... well we can only imagine.

As for this righteous image of any politician, they all have mud under their shoes.... some more than others. Obama carries the nonsense of Pastor wright and his dealings with Rezko...and I don't think that the Entire Clinton list will fit in this post. So get over it already...

The focus should be on the electoral votes and who can win the 270 and by the way leave FL out of the calculation for neither Hillary nor Barack will carry it in the GE; they will both lose it to Mccain.

What a terrible campaign run by the Clintons, not only in the kamizake attacks for the democratic party, but the poor campaign management, alienation of core democratic voters and and last but not least minimizing small states that could increase your margin of error with the 50 + 1 strategy. Last year about this time I would have sworn up and down that we would have seen a coast to a Clinton nomination...


John - Spokane, WA:

@ Indie,

I almost admire your feable attempt to sweep all of this recent news about your Golden Boy under the rug but Im sure you wont be able to. This is TOO BIG for Americans to overlook and they are not. And this idea that you guys keep throwing out there that Hillary cant beat McCain is ridiculus since she has ALREADY garnered more votes than McCain has - And while its true that Obama also has, that was pre-Reverend, Rezko days. America has been aware of all the Mud thrown at Hillary for a long time and NONE OF IT STUCK ! You wont be able to say the same about "O" . Did you happen to notice that most States that supported Obama are Republican - McCain would eat his lunch, throw it up & hand it back to him.



Yeah, that clinches it. Obama's pastor says 6 years ago that America is responsible for 9/11. And Barak claims he just found out....Ok,it was a toss up for me, but I'm out....Go Hillary!


John - Spokane, WA:

@ Andy,

Welcome to the Bright side young Jedi....
Better late than never. Hillary wont disappoint you !



Me sweep... are you kidding me. I dont do brooms but what I do do is cold hard facts.. As I have said in a number of posts, you think that Rezko and wright is anything in comparison to the Clinton dirt lets start with the NYT account of the Clinton ABC's:

A: is for Arkansas, where Whitewater began as a land deal between the Clintons and Jim and Susan McDougal.

B is for Billing-gate, HRC's missing law-billing records. Records -- which raised questions about Mrs. Clinton's role in the Castle Grande deal -- missing until early 1996, when they turned up in a White House room next to her office. She says she doesn't know how they got there.

C is for Cattlegate, Hillary Clinton's mysterious ability to turn a $1,000 investment into a $100,000 profit on cattle futures, a feat experts say was virtually impossible in normal trading.

C is also for Castle Grande, a real-estate scheme that federal regulators say was a sham...used to improperly funnel hundreds of thousands of dollars to Seth Ward, father-in-law of her ex-law partner Webster Hubbell.

D is for Dale, the career head of the White House Travel Office, who was fired along with six other career staffers, to make way for Clinton cronies in Travelgate. The White House then brought in the FBI to justify the firing, and Dale was hit with criminal charges that wrecked his life for two years. A jury cleared him in just two hours.

E is for Espy, the former agriculture secretary who was forced out over charges that he got gifts and favors from Arkansas-based Tyson foods, whose owners were longtime Clinton backers. A special counsel has brought several indictments, though not against Espy.

F is for Filegate, the improper White House rummaging through 900 FBI files on Republican officials in the Bush and Reagan administration. The White House says it was an innocent snafu.

G is for Golfgate, ex-White House aide David Watkins' improper use of presidential helicopters for a personal golf outing. He was forced to resign. In the 1992 presidential campaign, Clinton aides tried to use taxpayer funds to help settle a sexual harassment case filed by a fellow campaign worker against Watkins.

H is for Hillary Clinton, whose role has been questioned in Filegate, Travelgate, Billing-gate, Whitewater and Castle Grande. She denies any wrongdoing.

I is for Indonesiagate, featuring the Lippo group, a firm with long-standing ties to Bill Clinton, Clinton cronies and Arkansas. Republicans want to know why an Indonesian couple -- of apparently modest means -- with ties to Lippo gave $452,000 to the Democratic National Committee and what the firm may have gotten in return.

J is for Paula Jones, who accuses President Clinton of sexual harassment, saying he dropped his pants and asked for oral sex in an Arkansas hotel room while he was governor and she was a state employee.

K is for William Kennedy, another ex-Hillary Clinton law partner who became a White House lawyer and was forced to resign after concealing his failure to pay nanny taxes. He was reprimanded for his role in Travelgate.

L is for Craig Livingstone, the ex-bar bouncer with a history of drug use who was the head of White House security. Two FBI agents say it was Hillary Clinton who demanded his hiring, which she denies.

M is for the McDougal's, the Clintons' Whitewater partners, both of whom have been convicted of fraud. Jim McDougal is said to be helping Whitewater independent counsel Starr. Susan McDougal is in jail for refusing to say whether President Clinton lied when he denied knowing about an illegal $300,000 loan to bail out Whitewater. The loan wasn't repaid, and taxpayers were left holding the bag.

N is for Nussbaum, the former White House lawyer who barred federal investigators from searching Vince Foster's office after Foster's death. Nussbaum also withheld Foster's diary on Travelgate problems from federal probers for more than a year.

O is for O'Leary energy secretary, the frequent flier who drew up an enemies list of reporters, hired an image consultant at taxpayer expense, and ran up huge tabs on overseas trips.

P is for Pardons, which President Clinton has refused to rule out for individuals like Susan McDougal who potentially could provide evidence against him.

P is also for Peter Paul Look him up

Q is for all the questions -- unanswered -- on Whitewater, Filegate, Travelgate, Cattlegate and Billgate.

R is for Rowlands, the $200-an-hour hooker who revealed her ongoing affair with Clinton political guru Dick Morris, the author of Clinton's family-values strategy, which forced Morris to resign.

R is also for the Rose Law Firm, where Hillary Clinton, Vince Foster, Webster Hubbell and William Kennedy were partners, as was Joseph Giroir, a key figure in the Lippo group.

S is for Kenneth Starr, the Whitewater independent counsel probing Filegate, Travelgate and Vince Foster's death. He has won 15 convictions or guilty pleas, including both McDougals and former Arkansas Gov. Jim Guy Tucker, who was forced to resign.

T is for Travelgate, the Clintons' firing of career travel staffers like Billy Dale to make way for Clinton cronies. White House memos say Hillary Clinton was behind the firings -- she denies it -- and that she was spurred on by Clinton Hollywood pal Harry Thomason, who was seeking a piece of the lucrative White House charter business.

U is for undue influence and the question of whether that is what Lippo was seeking though megabucks contributions to Democrats. Lippo had close ties to Indonesia's brutal dictatorship, responsible for near-genocide in East Timor, which it occupied two decades ago.

V is for Vince Foster, the former Hillary Clinton law partner who became a White House lawyer and was found dead, an apparent suicide with a gunshot wound to the head. He apparently was a central figure in Travelgate and Filegate and handled Whitewater matters for the Clintons.

W is for Whitewater, the Arkansas land deal that started it all, with questions about whether the Clintons improperly benefitted from funds Jim McDougal's Madison Guarantee savings-and-loan, which went belly up, costing taxpayers an estimated $60 million.

X is for the Xeroxed copy of Hillary Clinton's law billing records that were found in the white House book room, two years after they were first sought. The pages had Mrs. Clinton's fingerprints around the section on Castle Grande - there were red ink notations in the late Vince Foster's handwriting.

Y is for the the young White House aides who were hired by the Clinton administration despite FBI background checks that found "recent" use of hard drugs like cocaine, crack and hallucinogens.

Z is for zippers -- the one Paula Jones claims that the then-Arkansas governor undid (see J) and the one Gennifer Flowers claims Clinton undid during what she insists was a long-running affair and the one that Monica Lewinsky definitely undid.

(okay so I had way too much fun with that post. Barack will work with the republicans and I am tired of the war.. so not my golden boy but definitely a breath of fresh air. Anyway... if you democrats want to give me HRC to vote against knock yourself out... I was hoping for something different...


Jerome A:

>>Barack will work with the republicans

LMFAO!!!!! Oh you are quite the comedian.

How's Rev. Wright today? Has Obama received his daily spiritual guidance from him yet as to how to "work with the republicans? (sic)"



@Jerome A
of my rather lengthy post... the best you could come up with is how is reverend wright today?... OK... cant wait for the american public to be reminded of HRC's vetted record, if Barack wont do it... I am sure Rove wont be as remiss...for true "comedy" sake... as in a comedy of errors I hope you get what you want... unfotunately the republicans will have the last laugh....


Javy Lopez:


Held together by our mutual distaste for others? Please continue, Dr Wright.

Held together by what we hate. That's really something to build on, isn't it?

If that's what the Democratic Party has become, count me out. Maybe the pundits are right. Maybe it's time for the two major parties to fade away and be replaced by ones that actually stand for something.


John - Spokane, WA:

@ Indie,

Well, now that you identified yourself as a Republican - it stands to reason that you would want Obama as the Dem Nominee because you know you can BEAT HIM. As for your trip through the alphabet, 90% allegations pertaining to Bill, 9 % heresay, % 1 Hillary probably took an ashtray from the White House - BIG DEAL. You Republicans cant stand it because the Clintons are likely to be back in the White House and you'll get to listen to your pill popping friend RUSH everday talk about America held hostage ! LOL !! The 90's were good times in this Country, Im ready for good times again after your boy "W" has set us backwards 30 years !


John - Spokane, WA:

Isnt this fun !!



Note in many prior posts I have identified myself as a moderate republican who voted for Obama. I would like to see Obama as the nominee because I will vote for him in the GE. You know that block of independants to moderate republicans voting for Obama, I happen to be one of them.

Oh you conspiracy theorists: most of us actually like the guy (OBAMA). Unlike the 13% of republicans that voted for HRC under Limbaugh's direction in Mississippi, thats where all of your mischief is taking place. I chuckled at that stat.

Republicans would love to see Hillary in November, you cant be serious about republicans wanting to contest against OBAMA right...Ill take that as spin...

And you are right, republicans cant stand to see a Clinton white house again and if you make her your nominee I am sure that they will prove it to you (which will include that 13% voting for clinton in Mississippi).Obama just happens to give some of us an opportunity to vote without partisanship... Clinton does not.

As a side "W" is not my boy I dont remember having him over for sleep-overs while growing up. But is he responsible for some of us defecting and being open to an Obama presidency absolutely.


John - Spokane, WA:

@ Indie,

I was at a caucus in Wash State (Where I Live hence the Spokane thing) and I listened to a Obama supporter compare him to REAGAN !!
If I had false teeth, i would have lost them then. I knew then we had Republicans in the Democratic Party, most of them will push Obama and jump back to McCain in GE - no secret there. Its not the Dem Party that is split, its the invasion of Republicans that are creating the division in the Party. Hillary will beat McCain so badly he'd think he was having a Viet Nam flashback !! LOL



My Last comment for the night: Obama being compared to Reagan, not surprising, if your guy meant it in the vein of "Reagan Democrat", he has a bi-partisan feel to him hence Obamacans (Obama-Republicans). I see nothing wrong with that. That is evidece of the voting demographics with the cross over votes. I wish I coud see a survey for Republicans who voted for Obama and indies who voted for Obama in the primary in the event that he wasn't on the ticket what they would do in the general election. My guess is Mc-cain. However I can only speak for myself and a few other Obamacans that I know... if he's the nominee he has our votes.

As for splitting the party, you dont need any help from the republicans , you are doing a bang up job for yourselves. I have to chuckle, cause only the democrats will find a way to lose an un-loseable election

Your party cant beat the republican party relying on the same game played in 2004 and 2000. You need the Obamacans and the young voters and the indies. Doing the same things and expecting a different result some say is madness. Obama is in the game because of the new demographic...Where do they go if he is not in the race. Anyway, you democrats can handle your business however you see fit. At the end of the day Ill have either Obama to vote for or McCain to vote for in that order



Sadly, I read all the post above and its just a preview of how the democratic party is already split and broken. Lets not forget about the issues, the economy, healthcare, and war in Iraq. Sadly, McCain will be the next president because of bitter people who can't look at the bigger picture and the greater good of things, and all these issues are only going to get worst.

**News flash to everyone**
politically and on the issues both Clinton and Obama are the same person. Whats the point of tearing the other candidate down, they are the same. McCain has the political policies that will keep us in this rut. Why are people so heated, people act like they know these candidates personally. Lets get back to the issues of our nation and the world. This is a political race for the president of the united states, this isn't high school where we are voting for who is going to be prom queen and the cliques of each side is throwing dirt on each other. Lets be grown ups. You don't say "well if I can't win you can't win either" and then vote for McCain. If either candidate, in the party you support wins, then thats who you vote for. Lets be grown ups and not bratty little kids that didn't get their way.


MIke in CA:

Wow, the first comment out someone posed as me attempting to tarnish my reputation. The comments on this site have gone steeply downhill. My comments are always intended for intellectual discourse, not mindless shilling. Shame on whoever made that post.



Mike in CA, I wouldn't worry about other people tarnishing your reputation, you're doing that yourself everytime you post. Your frequent, Obama-biased comments on this site are not "intellectual discourse." The guy who posted first identified himself as "Not Mike in CA," if you will notice. It was a joke, intended to expose your attempted domination of this site.



Without going into the ethics of playing the race card, Obama's campaign's strategy of playing the race card, assigning a racial motive to any comment by Clinton or her campaign workers, is a good strategy.

However, it is a terrible strategy to use against McCain and the Republicans, since their base does not give a flying f--- about what racially hypersensitive people have to whine about.

This is part of the reason why Obama's once comfortable lead over McCain has evaporated.


Mark Blumenthal:

Beth (and everyone else):

First, the "NOT" in the first "Mike in CA" posting above was added by me AFTER the real Mike in CA posted his response above (and since he typically includes his real email when posting, I can verify that the second Mike the same person that has posted here previously under that handle).

Second, the epidemic of impersonation on this site in recent weeks (see, for example, he comments by "KOS" and "Jerome A" above) is neither clearly satirical nor something I find particularly amusing. If all goes well, we will be shifting to a Typekey log in on Monday, largely because of this sort of abuse.


John - Spokane, WA:

When do the polls on Indiana, KY & W. Virginia start coming out ? It seems rather odd that what has been the norm of a new poll almost every few hours has come to a near halt. Even with the break in time until PA - This all seems a bit odd to me ?




I think in the first post NOT Mike in CA was referring to Obama being unable to campaign as the duly elected Democractic candidate for President. Unlike Mccain who will enjoy apparently a few months of primacy in this regard. Clinton would have the same problem of course, but barring a miracle she won't be that candidate I think.

Guys, you might not agree with Ciccina, but don't just post straight up negative comments about something she says, back it up with quotes or your own "educated" opinion.

I'm not sure what was particularly so bad about the minister's speech. I think it mirrors the tone of many black churches, but perhaps it was a little inflamatory? I think the worst part of the sermon was that it was a fairly odd spin on Hiliary vs Obama. Obama should not be promoted as the black candidate versus the white elite. Namely because alot of us white though not so elite do support Obama and might take such polarization harshly. On the other hand I don't know that Obama being a friend with the minister would feel comfortable calling his friend and minister out on the comment unless it was necessary. Personal relationships can be complicated as can also be attested to by the various friends of the Clinton family who've had to resign from her camp because of some comments. The same is true with one of Obama's people, but I don't know that she was a friend.


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