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POLL: Gallup Daily Tracking & Pew National Primary


Gallup Poll

National
Clinton 46, Obama 44... McCain 43, Romney 24

Note: A separate USA Today/Gallup national survey finds:
Clinton 45, Obama 44... McCain 42, Romney 24

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Pew

National
Clinton 46, Obama 38... McCain 42, Romney 22, Huckabee 20

 

Comments
Disenfranchised Florida Dem:

That Gallup is the best yet for Obama; it seems to suggest that yesterday was a blip, rather than a return to form for Clinton.

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craigfarmer:

can the pollster here ask gallup to release all of their daily info?

I'm skeptical that this tracking poll is legit.

They had a separate poll with a 45 45 result. I think they might have cheated so as not to have 2 different results out

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kristoph:

Both Rasmussen and Pew have Clinton with a double digit lead, yet Gallup has just a 2 point spread in their tracking poll.

Is there data on that Gallup poll?

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The Gallup tracking is facinating because yesterday's three-day average had a 48/41 Clinton/Obama split. Yesterday's release was the first three-day average without Edwards in any of the individual day samples. For the race to tighten this much, Obama must have won yesterday's daily track, perhaps 50/48. We know the polling has been fluid after major events, like Iowa. I wonder if we're seeing something similar now with an initial shift of Edwards support to Clinton (or undecided) and now a shift to Obama? Comments, Mark?

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Rasmus:

Kristoph,

Pew has a 8 point lead for CLinton, not 10 ;-)

I just found out that Gallup asked about 1200 people with a margin of error of 3%,

Pew had 600 people with a MoE of 4,5%.


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John Bopps:

I don't know which one to believe. I think the media wants to fool us into thinking that Obama go the upper hand then we will all be shocked on Wednesday when he potentially gets blown out the water despite Kennedy's endorsement. HRC is strong and I would not be surprise she pulls this out despite the media hating her.

Gallup nor any other poll is not the best. These polls are all over the place. Take them with a grain of salt. The trend is Obama is creeping, but HRC remains strong and always will be.

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JohnGK:

Pew, like Fox's recent national poll, is registered and not likely voters. Not sure if that explains the larger Clinton lead in the Pew poll than in the Gallup poll. At the same time, the Pew poll release did indicate the race has been tightening - so the trends are the same in both polls.

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John bopps:

I agree with JohnGK. Remember the polls
in NH?

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Adam:

Bob Shrum had a great comment this morning on Meet the Press. Essentially, he said that polls seem to lag the trends by a day or two. It might be that the upward shift for Obama will continue through Super Tuesday, and he ends up winning more delegates.

He's running fairly strong in NJ and CA. If he can capture one of those two, I'd say he wins on Tuesday.

Still, HRC is up in most of the polls -- the place you'd like to be. Essentially, Tuesday will come down to Obama's momentum versus Clinton's name recognition and subsequent lead. Which one will win?

Another interesting point is that Obama's 32 million in January. If he does fairly well on Tuesday, even if he doesn't win, I think it still favors him. The longer this goes on, it favors Obama.

Should Clinton win by a large margin on Tuesday, however, this thing is over...

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Ruben:

In addition to Adam's comment made by Bob Shrum. The notion that polls are 2 days behind is sound. However, how do we know that the trend is for Obama. Remember the South Carolina bounce was earlier in the week and bounces trend to start receeding in a few days. So, my thought is, is it possible that we are seen the end of Obama's South Carolina bounce and tomorrow number may show a realignment toward HRC?

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Rasmus:

Why should there be a realignment to HRC?
There was no really good news for her in the last days, there were -except polls- NO really important news in the last few days since Kennedy endorsed Obama.
Why should Obama lose the momentum then?

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Rasmus:

Why should there be a realignment to HRC?
There was no really good news for her in the last days, there were -except polls- NO really important news in the last few days since Kennedy endorsed Obama.
Why should Obama lose the momentum then?

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SRK:

The good news for Hillary in the last few days is her excellent debate performance where she came across as more presidential than Obama. She also got a chance to talk directly to the American people without any media filter. We have had only two days of post-debate polling. The Rasmussen poll shows a steady uptick. I am suspicious of the volatility in the Gallup poll. They had another poll out with USA Today that showed a tight race. It seems that they played around with their likely voter model to get numbers closer to their other poll. It seems that the likely voter screen being used these pollsters favors Obama. I wonder why. The Washington Post/ABC News poll indicates that Hillary Clinton's supporters are more excited about her than Obama's supporters. Then why would the likely voter screens favor Obama?

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terrondt:

are you kidding me? shrum is the biggest loser of them all. he never had a winning presidential candidate in his career. im glad he retired. keep him clear of any campaign or get caught with the shrum curse. he is a kiss of death. im glad he endorsed obama.

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Adam:

Terrondt -- who said Shrum endorsed Obama?

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Adam:

New CBS Poll -- Clinton 41, Obama 41

Sample size small though (N=491).

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ca-ind:

John---
Wednesday when he potentially gets blown out the water despite Kennedy's endorsement.
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Ha Ha! you idiots actullay believe that drunk Kennedys' endorsement means anything. It is not worth jack sh*!.
I made up my mind not to vote for Obama, after the the Junkies from MA & lunatics from MoveOn endorsed him.

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VoteForWomen:

Polls getting crazy as we democrats !!
Will Barak worth to lead this country? What experiance he got compare to Hillary? He says beign Right is far better than experiance, do you believe it?
Let me tell you what I belive, Americans belive you need to have experiance to make right decision.
Hillary will come out victor, no doubt in it !!

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