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POLL: InsiderAdvantage Pennsylvania Dems


InsiderAdvantage

Pennsylvania
Clinton 45, Obama 43

Note, this document says 45.3 to 42.4 and this document says 45 to 43.

 

Comments
Fourth:

So has operation chaos now spread to Republican polling firms as well? Hillary "on life support," and "would need a miracle to win the state..." really? Talk about changing expectations to set the bar impossibly high for Obama. "Miracle" is a tad strong for a closed primary state with such favorable Clinton demographics.

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jr1886:

Fourth,
I agree, this language doesn't make sense. With all the favorable demographic for Clinton, how would that be a miracle if she wins as expected?

These two latest polls will certainly raised expectations for Obama but his rise was expected as it should be pointed out that in every State Obama has campaigned-except Ohio- his numbers have risen whereas Hillary's numbers have either stay stagnant or crumbled.

So which poll is corrected? SurveyUSA is arguably the most accurate one but the last two polls have shown a closer race than expected. After averaging all the last 5 polls, I get a +5.2 % lead for Hillary.

I should point out that this IA poll is unusual because Obama is leading among African Americans only by 55.5% to 29.1% for Hillary. This is incredibly low and if anything Obama should get about +3% points as he should get at least 80% of that vote and -1% for Hillary.

Should we call this rapid surge the Cassey effect? I need more polls.

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Pat:

I don't buy any of these polls. It is meant to raise expectations for Obama so Clinton can claim a huge victory even if she wins by a small margin.

Also, I just don't trust any of the remaining primaries including PA because of the Rush Limbaugh factor. I believe all the recent registration switches from "republican to democrat" are RL supporters trying to influence the results and these polls underestimate Clinton's numbers considerably.
I think this effect will be even more significant in Indiana and North Carolina (10%-17% in favor of Clinton).

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Mike_in_CA:

pat,

that would be an absurd amount of crossover repubs in NC and Indiana to favor Clinton by 10-17%! Some reports I have read estimate that the "Limbaugh effect" helped Hillary on the order of ~2-3% at MOST in Ohio. Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. It takes a lot of work for someone to RE-register as a Democrat an then go vote, for someone they don't even like.

Plus, in NC the primary is only semi-open, meaning Dems and Indies.

Point being, let's all RELAX With the "Operation Chaos" nonsense.

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RS:

Say it with me now:
"Comeback kid! Comeback kid! Comeback kid!"

:-)

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Uri:

I don't see a chaos effect here. I see an impressive Obama momentum, that also corresponds to a superdelegate momentum (Carter, Casey, etc.)

I see Obama greatly overtaking HRC in a state that has a high rate of young students after he has spent a fortune on advertising and visited every college campus this week.

I live in Pittsburgh and have not seen one Hillary ad this season. Obama ads are on nonstop, and he had a campaign stop at the University of Pittsburgh and Penn State while his wife visited Carnegie Mellon. (Hillary was at the university of Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, DURING SPRING BREAK).

HRCs democratic base is limited to the blue collar workers, which offset black voters. So the shift is coming from the younger voters.

I'm an avid HRC supporter and I have no illusions about the race being over.

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steve:

Survey USA gives you some demographic information for analysis which is very helpful. One interesting fact about this poll is that the white vote splits 52 female /48 male, a ratio favorable to Obama. He typically runs about 10 points better among white men than white woman.

For comparison, the Ohio exit polls showed the white electorate there split 58 female /42 male which helped Clinton as she carried white women 2-1.

What we don't know is if the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary voters are more evenly balanced between white male and female votes or if polls like these underestimate white female turnout which would overstate the Obama vote. Unfortunately, there was no Insider Advantage poll in Ohio to test their surveys with the exit polls to check for this sampling bias.

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hardheadedliberal:

I have observed elections in South Carolina for almost 40 years. The notion of what is called "strategic voting" or "crossover voting" - referred to in several of the above comments as the "Limbaugh effect" - has been raised frequently over that period of four decades.

Although journalists and political junkies make a lot of noise about "strategic voting" by partisans of one party in the primary of the other party, to improve the performance of the weaker opposition candidate, I have seen evidence of such "strategic voting" in only one primary election in SC in 40 years.

The simple fact is that very few people are sufficiently immersed in political partisanship to engage in such electoral skulduggery. The rare occurrence of such behavior also reflects the fact that a large number of political junkies recognize that it is a VERY risky business to predict which opposition candidate is going to be weaker in the general election. When Reagan was nominated in 1980, many Democrats believed that he was the weaker candidate against President Carter. Well ..... With examples like that, most activists prefer, I think, to let the opposition take responsibility for selecting its own candidates, rather than casting strategic votes that may inadvertantly put the stronger opposition candidate in the general election!

Most of Limbaugh's "ditto-heads" are, I think, low information members of the public who put a lot more energy into spouting hot air in placing telephone calls to "talk radio" programs and also occasionally calling Congressional offices to spout off. The assaults that have derailed immigration reform bills in recent years are a typical example of the occasional tele-bombing of Congress by ditto-heads and their ilk.

I really don't think enough of the Limbaugh listeners vote at all for the ditto-heads to cross over to vote in numbers sufficient to add one per cent to Clinton's vote margin, much less 2-3% or more. But if some savvy poll analysts can devise an analytical model to tease out some number for "strategic voters," I'll be at the front of the queue to study the results of that analysis!

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Bonowski:

The 3 latest PA polls are interesting...but the PA vote is 3 weeks away, and I'm not sold on these new numbers. This sudden boost for Obama in PA seems very questionable.

"I don't buy any of these polls. It is meant to raise expectations for Obama so Clinton can claim a huge victory even if she wins by a small margin." - That's a good point.

If the PA vote were held today, I think Clinton would still win by 8 - 11 points...but if she wins by less than 5%, just please pull the plug on your campaign. You're only making things worse.

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Andrew_in_California:

I'll laugh at all the republicans that fail to switch their party for the general election after the "Rush" effect.

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