8/12/08; 416 LV, 5%
McCain 43, Obama 43
RED RED VA. Looking purple? Blue even? Again poll has high MOE. Again poll is only 416 so called 'Likely Voters' Look through the tabs - look at the trend... If this holds till November, its all about motivated base, excitement and GOTV ground game. And that benefits....
Posted on August 13, 2008 2:10 PM
I am sorry, but are 23% of blacks identifying as Republican?23% of blacks voting for McCain?
I would bet everything I've got against those numbers verifying
Posted on August 13, 2008 2:27 PM
Give Obama 90% of the black vote as he will most assuredly get and wouldn't the rewsult look much different?
Posted on August 13, 2008 2:29 PM
oooo-weee, more bad news for mccain.
yikes. what is he going to do now???
maybe more britney and paris ads, this time with more blatant miscegenation messages perhaps?
Oh, I can't stand the anticipation....
Posted on August 13, 2008 2:38 PM
I lived in Philadelphia for 20 years. Blacks dominate politics there. Blacks are much more conservative than you know. They don't always share their real preferences with the pollsters or exit polls for all that matters. There is no way to verify how they voted. They know that. I shared a hospital room with a middle aged black man who did nothing but listen to conservative talk radio all day long. He loved it. During the 2000 debates, Bush was asked a question by a black man in the audience concerning Bush's feeling over the death penalty. Did you see the man's eyes light up when Bush answered him? Obama is the one taking the black vote for granite. But don't tell him that. He believes that they vote on account of their race.
Posted on August 13, 2008 2:43 PM
This poll whilst showing a credible end result looks fairly flawed like the In/Ad Florida snapshot yesterday. The Caveat about the undecided and the black vote this far out looking high for the Republican (23%) being normal, I take it on 2000/2004, is a nonsequeter. This is not a normal year for the AAs, is it?
Posted on August 13, 2008 2:45 PM
I don't see why this is bad news for McCain, he has been running a little behind for quite a time. At this point now, it's about tied - in fact the last four VA polls now have been tie, McCain +1, Obama +2, McCain +1 (for an average exact tie) and before that Obama had been ahead by around 3% average. If anything his recent trend has been very slightly positive in VA, but regardless this battle is within the margain of error.
All this says is neither candidate can mess around with VA.
McCain probably can't win without VA and Obama can shut out McCain with VA - and it's fair game for both.
Posted on August 13, 2008 2:55 PM
ROTFLMAO @ player!
Good one....hooo....hee...oh, that was good stuff....thanks for that, I needed a good laugh.....lots of stress at work, but you helped me out a lot. Thanks "player". Wait, that was meant to be a joke right?
Posted on August 13, 2008 2:56 PM
Have to agree with the other comments. The bottom line seems credible; the internals seem bizarre, at best. Put it down to small sample sizes (especially in subgroups) and general disattachment from the campaign at the moment.
"I lived in Philadelphia for 20 years. Blacks dominate politics there. "
I live in Philadelphia and have for my entire life. You are right that blacks dominate politics in the city...and Democrats win statewide elections largely due to having 90% of the black vote behind them. Any Republican elected officials anywhere in the city except from the (white) Northeast?
what was your point again?
by the way I was driving around North Philly today(an almost all black ghetto) and the number of Obama signs was staggering...a shocking level of engagement for a community so devastated by drugs, violence, and a dearth of employment opportunities...I am sure this is being replicated throughout the country, even, one would assume, in Virginia...I guess the 20% McCain supporters live in underground tunnels or something?
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:05 PM
Yes, and that is why that Republicans dominate in cities with huge black populations. Oh wait, they don't?
Seriously, what do you think is more likely: that Black Americans systematically lie to every pollster, ever, and this one poll managed to somhow get it right, or that this poll is skewed because the relatively small sample size doesn't allow for accurate sub-samples?
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:07 PM
"Put it down to small sample sizes"
That's what I would guess too but the AA numbers are so bizarre as to diminish the poll's credibility...
Adjust Obama's percentage of the black vote upward by 30% to 87%(which is a fairly conservative estimate) and he has a lead of around 5%
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:10 PM
"taking the black vote for granite"
if you mean by that that the black vote will be a solid rock of Obama support...agreed!
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:13 PM
eamon- It is a small sample size, so that is why the AA vote is misrepresented. Very likely it will be 90-95% on election day.
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:17 PM
agreed, voice, which is my point...raising Obama's AA share from 57% to 87%(which is what John Kerry, whitest man in history, got among VA blacks) and Obama would have a lead of approx 5%
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:20 PM
More parroted talking points...this time about Obama taking the black vote for granted.
You know it's one thing to for instance claim that Kerry is taking the vote for granted when there were no elected black Senators nor Governors serving in 2004, but to think that the AA population would turn around and vote for Republicans when they sit in their polling places challenging their right to vote, they cleanse voting roles, and do everything in the power despite the voting rights act to keep as many black people from voting.
Then when the Democrats offer up the the first black presidential candidate, the parrots still think there is substance to this "taken for granted" spin, and might even claim that Obama himself is ignoring the needs of black people.
Absolutely unbelievable! This is either completely dishonest debate, or the result of being very poorly informed. I would like to think it is the former, but I really doubt it.
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:25 PM
I thought Mayor Street took care of those abandoned cars and pot holes in North Philly. Actually, I was thinking of NE Philly where Rendell lives or over in East Falls where Arlan Specter lives. My point is that people are fooled into thinking that blacks vote in mass because of color. They don't. That is a democrat party myth and a huge polling error that is always covered up by some weird explanation. Lets see; who was the Mayor of Philly supporting this year? Hes black and he was supporting Clinton not Obama.
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:30 PM
This is Virginia. Obama still needs the white vote to complement the black vote. The undecideds will decide this state.
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:32 PM
Brambster needs to read some blogs. Although unlikely blacks will turn to McCain, there are some very unhappy blacks who feel slighted by Obama. I have friends in Philly, and Obama did in fact ignore them in order to woo PA whites. I guess you could say that Obama took them for granted.
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:37 PM
Northern Virginia is really just southern Maryland these days, the key is how much support Obama can grab from the more southern and rural parts of Virginia
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:42 PM
player-Rendell lives in East Falls too. Your theory about a massive coverup of black Republicans is an interesting one if a little insane. Is there an underground city for these people, like the Atlantis of black Republicans?better yet an underground plantation!
Nutter did indeed endorse Hillary, earning him the nickname "Nutterbutter" among Philly blacks, who overwhelmingly voted for Obama. Nutter's endorsement had more to do with Rendell's influence, and particularly with the fact that Obama endorsed Chaka Fattah in the Dem mayoral primary
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:48 PM
McCain wins the Youth vote by 10%? 23% of Blacks vote for McCain? LMAO. If it is tied under those conditions, then Obama is going to win easily on election day.
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:50 PM
Didn't you understand Jessie Jackson's comments concerning Obama or did you hear all of what he said concerning the comment half breed? And as a matter of race, do they find Obama black enough to vote in mass for? That could be a reason that a lot of them might be moving towards supporting McCain. However, if I actually thought that, I would be disagreeing with myself about blacks voting in mass because of color.
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:56 PM
That's real looney stuff you know, and it's not even worth debating.
Are they pushing this stuff on Fox News or something?
Posted on August 13, 2008 4:01 PM
It's more DC's influence than Maryland's and I can say that having lived in various parts of both Maryland and Virginia over the last 8 years. Northern VA is growing with the overflow of young professionals (read: Obama's base) from the District. Southern Maryland is actually a great deal more conservative than Northern Virginia.
But your larger point is accurate.
Posted on August 13, 2008 4:30 PM
I really don't know what to say about this poll. First, this pollster has not polled the state previously, so there is not point of comparison. Second, some of the numbers are pretty fishy. What numbers? Well, Obama getting 57% of the black vote doesn't seem right to me, to say the least, especially taking into account that Kerry won 87% of the black vote in the state. Third, the % of people over the age of 65% is pretty off in comparison to 2004 when they were 10% of the voters but are 17% of people in this survey.
P.S: I rather wait for the Rasmussen poll that is coming out later on, at least he has been polling the state on a regular basis. So, we can get to see the trend.
Posted on August 13, 2008 4:43 PM
VA was only a red state in the recent elections because AAs did not vote with the same enthusiasm as they do now. For many years now DC (which leans dem) has effectively expanded into the VA and MD suburbs, outnumbering rural VA
Posted on August 13, 2008 8:39 PM
Yet another patently absurd poll by Insider Advantage. Obama is winning the black vote just 57 - 24%?? The whole poll should be ignored. Once you see the crosstabs, you see how laughable Insider Advantage is. Numbers on a dartboard.
Posted on August 13, 2008 10:12 PM
Comments: (you may use HTML tags for style)
Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.
Please email us to report offensive comments.
See our comment policy here. Note that we require commenters to share their email address via Typekey. We will never share your email address with anyone without your explicit permission.
MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR