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POLL: Iowa Dem Caucus (Richardson)


A new Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin and Associates (D) statewide survey of 500 likely caucus-goers in Iowa (conducted 6/18 through 6/20 for Gov. Bill Richardson) finds:

  • Among likely caucus-goers, former Sen. John Edwards leads Sen. Hillary Clinton (34% to 24%) in a statewide caucus; Sen. Barack Obama trails at 17%, Richardson at 13%.

  • Among the "likeliest" caucus-goers -- "who attended the 2004 caucus, voted in the 2006 primary, and say they are definite to attend next year's caucus," Edwards runs at 31%, Clinton at 23%, Richardson at 18%, and Obama at 16%.

See all of Pollster.com's Iowa Caucus poll data.

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Comments

Though these numbers may be a bit inflated for Richardson, I am impressed with him as a candidate and hope that he is given a serious look by Democratic voters. Arguably, the ideal Democratic ticket for 2008 would be Edwards/Richardson.

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The Richardson poll has a subpopulation of "likeliest caucus goers". These individuals were selected if they voted in the 2004 caucus and in the 2006 primaries. In other words, the politically active. While I wouldn't pay as much attention to this subpopulation if this were for New Hampshire or Florida, it would seem somewhat significant for a caucus. Iowa or Nevada.

I was just wondering why your post didn't address the percentages for the "likeliest caucus goers".

Isaiah
isaiah13066@gmail.com
http://izayuh.blogspot.com

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Isaiah:

P.S.

Just a question: is there any reason Richardson isn't included in the Iowa or New Hampshire graphs when he is outpolling Al Gore?

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Bryan:

Edwards even though he is polling ahead in Iowa right now, has run a mediocre campaign, and according to the moredependable mason-Dixon poll, trails Hillary Clinton by 1 point. Bill Richardson has a good resume, but once again he has not been a good candidate. If Edwards is the Dem nominee then I fear the Dems will get their clocks cleaned, for any candidate that says there is no such thing as a global war on terror, will be fish bait for whoever the GOP nominates.

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Isaac:

Bryan,

You're entitled to your opinion, but Rasmussen suggests otherwise:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/match_ups/election_2008_democratic_presidential_matchups

(Note the comparison with Giuliani).

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Anonymous:

Let me guess, Fairbank Maslin Maulin is a democratic polling firm that has been retained by the Richardson campaign right? Why can't they routinely disclose who paid for these polls?

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