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POLL: LA Times/Bloomberg 2008 Primary


Additional results from the recent Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg national survey (story , results) of 1,246 registered voters (conducted 4/5 through 9) finds:

  • Among 557 probable Democratic voters, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama 33% to 23% in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards and former V.P. Al Gore trail at 14% and 13% respectively.
  • Among 437 probable Republican voters, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 29%) leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (15%), Sen. John McCain (12%), former Gov. Mitt Romney (8%) and former Speaker Newt Gingrich (7%) in a national primary.
  • In general election match-ups, Obama leads McCain (48% to 40%) and Giuliani leads Clinton (48% to 42%), while all other match-ups between Giuliani, McCain, Obama, Edwards, and Clinton are within the margin of sampling error.

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(all National Primary charts here.)

Editor's note: At least one Pollster reader is asking about the debut of Fred Thompson at 15% in the national Republican trial heat, three percentage points higher than John McCain, is sure to be of interest. With only 437 interviews, Thompson's 15% is not significantly different than McCain's 12% (that's statistically significant, assuming a 95% confidence level).

However, on five other conventional national surveys that included Fred Thompson on a Republican trial heat question in the last 20 days, McCain averaged 18% and Thompson's 10%. The difference between the LA Times results and previous surveys for these two candidates looks to be statistically meaningful (although remember the usual cautions about apple-to-orange comparisons between different methodologies and random sampling error being just one potential source of survey error).

Professor Franklin sends words he will have more to say in the near future about a hint of a change in the trends.

Update: A new Time/SRBI national survey has McCain at 20% and Thompson at 10%.

 

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