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POLL: Mason-Dixon Southwest States (8/13-15)


Mason-Dixon / The Denver Post /
The Las Vegas Review-Journal / The Salt Lake Tribune
8/13-15/08; 400 LV, 5% (in each state)
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(results)

Arizona
McCain 47, Obama 41

Colorado
Obama 46, McCain 43

Nevada
McCain 47, Obama 41

New Mexico
McCain 45, Obama 41

Utah
McCain 62, Obama 23
Gov: Huntsman (R-i) 73, Springmeyer (D) 9

Wyoming
McCain 62, Obama 25

 

Comments
faithhopelove:

Questionable polls due to their small samples.

Still, good news for both candidates--for McCain, in the swing states of New Mexico and Nevada; for Obama, in the swing state of Colorado. All of these states were red in 2004.

McCain's lead in NV would likely be smaller had the pollster included Libertarian (and former Republican) Bob Barr--NV has a Libertarian streak.

The New Mexico poll is the only recent poll of this state showing McCain with a lead there.

The Colorado poll has Obama up 3 despite having only 75% of Democrats locked up there.


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decided:

400 likely voters is not what you call perfectly reliable.

New Mexico and Arizona are very surprising, are the Latino votes shifting in NM? And why should McCain lose so much ground in his home state??
Colorado will be Obama's if he jumps on the water story for local ads. Nevada will be McCain's, he might have got a bounve from his renegotiate water statement

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faithhopelove:

Zogby has just released the first Obama-Biden polls. All of them show the Dem ticket ahead.

The McCain-Romney match-up is just 2-points behind, though. Romney would help McCain hold Nevada.

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zotz:

What is the point of doing a poll with a MOE +/-5%. A ten point spread for MOE? And what is the point of doing a regional poll? Electoral votes are not allocated by region.
Very disappointing methodology. Mason-Dixon has really gone down in my estimation.

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thoughtful:

The Indie region numbers are 41% each and 18% undecided. Obama has 75% of the Dem vote! MOE is 2%, if I read this right. Don't know any weighting age demo etc?

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Paul:

Results compared with other polls: AZ at McCain +6 is 6 points short of what McCain has been polling; CO at Obama +3 is 2 points better than Obama has been polling; NV at McCain +6 is surprising - he has been polling only 1 point better than Obama; New Mexico at McCain +4 appears an anomaly --- Obama has been polling 3 points better than McCain.

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brambster:

The only results that I would not really question here are Utah, Wyoming and Colorado. Noting that Colorado is very close, but not necessarily a 3 point Obama advantage (today), but close enough to not be questionable.

Arizona is probably going to be surprisingly close for a Presidential candidate's own state where that candidate does win big in state elections, but it's definitely not a 6 point race.

I would say that Nevada and New Mexico seem like outlier results. Mason-Dixon is the only pollster to find a McCain advantage in NM since April, and they are showing a 4 point advantage. I just don't accept that.

Nevada is notoriously hard to poll, and combining that with a 400 LV sample isn't going to make these numbers worth much. Based on past elections and changing demographics, I would expect a natural tilt over to the Dems this cycle in NV. It could be that I am discrediting the regional affect of an Arizona candidate, but NV is so young and the population is so overwhelmingly urban with a very large Hispanic population, and this really speaks to Obama picking up ground over Kerry.

The problem with gaging NV this cycle is that it's primarily just Rasmussen polling it, with a smattering here and there of an unreliable Zogby Interactive poll, and a few Mason-Dixon and Research 2000 polls since June. I really don't trust that the data that we have justifies any confidence that NV is actually leaning McCain by over 2 points in the Pollster average, and certainly not 6. I would think it lies between McCain +1 and Obama +3 based simply on the changes since 2004 and the results seen then. Obama has certainly outperformed from the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific.

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faithhopelove:

Just noticed that these polls, while just released, are relatively old; they were in the field while Obama was on vacation.

Also just noticed that the 75% figure (Democrats for Obama) is actually across the region, not just CO. This number means Obama has room for growth--more than McCain does.

McCain is surely ahead by more than 6 in his home state.

The Colorado poll is consistent with other polls of this state.

The New Mexico poll is inconsistent with other polls, but it is well within the poll's large margin of error. (Both candidates have visited this state since this poll was in the field.)

The Nevada result seems unlikely. (Obama has visited this state since this poll was in the field.)

Still, Obama would take these results on election night. They would give him +9 electoral votes in the Southwest. Add Iowa's 7 electoral votes, and he would then need just one small state to win the election (assuming he carries the Kerry states). Possibilities include AK, MT, and ND--all of which he has targeted. He visits MT Wednesday.

He could also win the Omaha area's one electoral vote (the most recent poll has him down just 4 there). The electoral vote would then be tied, which the House of Representatives would break. The House is and will be controlled by Democrats.

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djneedle83:

These polls are crap..

A presidential poll with only 400 voters.

LOL...

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crackbaldo:

Could someone please explain to me why Utah is still a state? What have they given us except Mormonism and "S.L.C. Punk?"

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Tom:

@faithhopelove

Obama may not need CO if the polls out of VA are correct, and Obama is able to snag that state's 13 EV. If Obama takes all the Kerry states plus IA and VA, then it's over. He could even afford to lose NH in this scenerio since that will get him to 269, and the majority of state delegations to the house of representatives is expected to be Democratic.

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Clint Cooper:

McCain doing the same in New Mexico as Arizona.

Um, no.

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faithhopelove:

Tom:

I agree that the Kerry states + VA + IA is one of Obama's clearest paths to victory. I think IA is his best bet for a flip, with VA, CO, and NM tied for 2nd.

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faithhopelove:

Additional reasons to doubt the Nevada poll:

1) Two more recent polls with larger samples have Obama up 1--and these polls include Barr, unlike Mason-Dixon.

2) This poll has Obama up only 1 in Clark County (Las Vegas), which Kerry won by 5. Why would Kerry fare better in Clark County against an incumbent than Obama against a non-incumbent? See:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/08/24/politics/p104122D31.DTL&type=politics

3) Las Vegas has been hit hard by the foreclosure crisis. This poll was taken before the fuss about McCain's 8 homes.

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