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POLL: McClatchy-MSNBC/Mason-Dixon Michigan Primary


A new McClatchy-MSNBC/Mason-Dixon statewide survey (story, results) of 400 likely Republican primary voters in Michigan (conducted 1/9 through 1/11) finds:

    30 Romney
    22 MCCain
    17 Huckabee
    7 Thompson
    6 Giuliani
    5 Paul
    1 Hunter
    1 Keyes
    11 Undecided

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5%.

 

Comments
Chris S.:

I was wondering if you could comment on how the likely voter screens that the pollsters are using for Michigan compare to their screens for, say, New Hampshire, or other states. Specifically, I'm thinking of the effect of there being no meaningful contest on the Democratic side in Michigan. Presumably, this means that a larger share of Independents will vote in the GOP primary than if the Dem. contest was meaningful. And of course, there's also the possibility of Dems crossing over to create mischief, as in the 2000 GOP presidential primary in Michigan.

Has this effect been seen on turnout in past years, when only one side has a meaningful primary, and is it adequately captured by the likely voter models of pollsters?

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drboom:

In my opinion, unless there is some organized movement for the dems to go one way or another, the differnece should be slight, and most likely go in favor of McCain, but nothing in the neighborhood of 5%.

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